Teori Antrian

Penelitian Operasional II
Jurusan Teknik Industri Universitas Andalas
2016

Queueing Theory-1
 Queueing Theory:
This theory studies queueing systems by formulating mathematical
models of their operation and then using these models to derive measures
of performance.
 What is Queuing Theory?

• Mathematical analysis of queues and waiting times in

stochastic systems.
– Used extensively to analyze production and service
processes exhibiting random variability in market demand
(arrival times) and service times.
• Queues arise when the short term demand for
service exceeds the capacity
– Most often caused by random variation in service times and
the times between customer arrivals.
– If long term demand for service > capacity the queue will
explode!

3
 Why is Queuing Analysis
Important?
• Capacity problems are very common in industry and
one of the main drivers of process redesign
– Need to balance the cost of increased capacity against the
gains of increased productivity and service
• Queuing and waiting time analysis is particularly
important in service systems
– Large costs of waiting and of lost sales due to waiting

Prototype Example – ER at County Hospital

• Patients arrive by ambulance or by their own accord
• One doctor is always on duty
• More and more patients seeks help  longer waiting
times
 Question: Should another MD position be 4

instated?
 This analysis provides vital information for effectively designing
queueing systems that achieve an appropriate balance between the
cost of providing a service and the cost associated with waiting for
the service.
A Cost/Capacity Tradeoff Model

Total
cost
Cost

Cost of
service

Cost of waiting

Process capacity

6
 Examples of Real World Queuing
Systems?
• Commercial Queuing Systems
– Commercial organizations serving external customers
– Ex. Dentist, bank, ATM, gas stations, plumber, garage …
• Transportation service systems
– Vehicles are customers or servers
– Ex. Vehicles waiting at toll stations and traffic lights, trucks or
ships waiting to be loaded, taxi cabs, fire engines, elevators,
buses …
• Business-internal service systems
– Customers receiving service are internal to the organization
providing the service
– Ex. Inspection stations, conveyor belts, computer support …
• Social service systems
– Ex. Judicial process, the ER at a hospital, waiting lists for organ 7

transplants or student dorm rooms …

 Components of a Basic Queuing
Process

Input Source The Queuing System

Served
Calling Jobs Service Jobs
Queue Mechanis
Populatio
m leave the
n
system

Arrival Queue
Process Discipline
Service
Queue
Process
Configuratio
n 8
 Components of a Basic Queuing
Process (II)
 The calling population
– The population from which customers/jobs originate
– The size can be finite or infinite (the latter is most
common)
– Can be homogeneous (only one type of customers/
jobs) or heterogeneous (several different kinds of
customers/jobs)
 The Arrival Process
– Determines how, when and where customer/jobs
arrive to the system
– Important characteristic is the customers’/jobs’
inter-arrival times
– To correctly specify the arrival process requires data
collection of interarrival times and statistical
analysis. 9
 Components of a Basic Queuing
Process (III)
 The queue configuration
– Specifies the number of queues
• Single or multiple lines to a number of service
stations
– Their location
– Their effect on customer behavior
• Balking and reneging
– Their maximum size (# of jobs the queue can hold)
• Distinction between infinite and finite capacity

10
Example – Two Queue Configurations

Multiple Queues Single Queue

Servers Servers

11
Multiple v.s. Single Customer Queue
Configuration
Multiple Line
Advantages
1.The service provided
can be differentiated
– Ex. Supermarket express
lanes
2. Labor specialization
possible
3. Customer has more
flexibility
4. Balking behavior may be
deterred
– Several medium-length lines
are less intimidating than one
Single Line Advantages
1. Guarantees fairness
– FIFO applied to all arrivals
2. No customer anxiety
regarding choice of queue
3. Avoids “cutting in”
problems
4. The most efficient set up
for minimizing time in the
queue
5. Jockeying (line switching)
is avoided 12
 Components of a Basic Queuing
Process (IV)
 The Service Mechanism
– Can involve one or several service facilities with one or several
parallel service channels (servers) - Specification is required
– The service provided by a server is characterized by its service
time
• Specification is required and typically involves data gathering
and statistical analysis.
• Most analytical queuing models are based on the assumption
of exponentially distributed service times, with some
generalizations.
 The queue discipline
– Specifies the order by which jobs in the queue are being served.
– Most commonly used principle is FIFO.
– Other rules are, for example, LIFO, SPT, EDD…
– Can entail prioritization based on customer type. 13
 Mitigating Effects of Long Queues
1. Concealing the queue from arriving customers
– Ex. Restaurants divert people to the bar or use pagers,
amusement parks require people to buy tickets outside the park,
banks broadcast news on TV at various stations along the queue,
casinos snake night club queues through slot machine areas.
2. Use the customer as a resource
– Ex. Patient filling out medical history form while waiting for
physician
3. Making the customer’s wait comfortable and distracting
their attention
– Ex. Complementary drinks at restaurants, computer games,
internet stations, food courts, shops, etc. at airports
4. Explain reason for the wait
5. Provide pessimistic estimates of the remaining wait time
– Wait seems shorter if a time estimate is given.
14
6. Be fair and open about the queuing disciplines used
A Commonly Seen Queuing Model (I)

The Queuing
System
The Service Facility

C S = Server

The Queue C S
Customers •
(C) CCC…C
•
•
C S
Customer =C

15
A Commonly Seen Queuing Model (II)
• Service times as well as interarrival times are assumed
independent and identically distributed
– If not otherwise specified
• Commonly used notation principle: A/B/C
– A = The interarrival time distribution
– B = The service time distribution
– C = The number of parallel servers
• Commonly used distributions
– M = Markovian (exponential) - Memoryless
– D = Deterministic distribution
– G = General distribution
• Example: M/M/c
– Queuing system with exponentially distributed service and inter-
arrival times and c servers
16
 Served customers
Queueing system

Queue C S
C S Service
Customers
CCCCCC C S facility
C S

Served customers

Applications: Waiting Line Design, Banking, Network Design

 Basic Queueing Process

Arrivals Queue Service

• Arrival time • Capacity • Number of servers
distribution (infinite or finite) (one or more)
• Calling population • Queueing • Service time
(infinite or finite) discipline distribution

“Queueing System”
Queueing Theory-18
 Examples and Applications

• Call centers (“help” desks, ordering goods)

• Manufacturing
• Banks
• Telecommunication networks
• Internet service
• Intelligence gathering
• Restaurants
• Other examples….

Queueing Theory-19
 Notation of Kendall

The following is a standard notation system of queueing systems

T/X/C/K/P/Z with

– T: probability distribution of inter-arrival times

– X: probability distribution of service times
– C: Number of servers
– K: Queue capacity
– P: Size of the population
– Z: service discipline

20
 Customer arrival process
T/X/C/K/P/Z

• T can take the following values:

– M : markovian (i.e. exponential)
– G : general distribution
– D : deterministic
– Ek : Erlang distribution
–…
• If the arrivals are grouped in lots, we use the notation T[X] where X is
the random variable indicating the number of customers at each arrival
epoch
– P{X=k} = P{k customers arrive at the same time}
21
• Some arriving customers can leave if the queue is too long
 Service times
T/X/C/K/P/Z
• X can take the following values:
– M : markovian (i.e. exponential)
– G : general distribution
– D : deterministic
– Ek : Erlang distribution
–…

k exponential servers with parameter m

Erlang distribution Ek with parameter m

22
 Number of servers
T/X/C/K/P/Z
In simple queueing systems, servers are identical

23
 Queue capacity
T/X/C/K/P/Z

Loss of customers if
the queue is full

Capacity K

24
 Size of the population
T/X/C/K/P/Z

The size of the population can be either finite or

infinite

For a finite population, the customer arrival rate is

a function of the number of customers in the
system: l(n).

25
 Service discipline
T/X/C/K/P/Z
Z can take the following values:
• FCFS or FIFO : First Come First Served
• LCFS or LIFO : Last Come First Served
• RANDOM : service in random order
• HL (Hold On Line) : when an important customer arrives, it takes the head
of the queue
• PR ( Preemption) : when an important customer arrives, it is served
immediately and the customer under service returns to the queue
• PS (Processor Sharing) : All customers are served simultaneously with
service rate inversely proportional to the number of customers
• GD (General Discipline)

26
 The concept of customer classes

A queueing system can serve several classes of customers characterized

by:
• different arrival processes
• different service times
• different costs
• service priority according to their class (preemption or no for example)

27
 Simplified notation

We will use the simplified notation T/X/C when we consider

a queue where:
•The capacity is infinite
•The size of the population is infinite
•The service discipline is FIFO

• Hence T/X/C = T/X/C///FIFO

28
 Ergodicity

• A system is said ergodic if

its stationary performances
equal
the time average of any realisation of the system, observed over a
sufficiently long period

T
1
E  X      lim  X  t  dt
T  T
t 0
• A regenerative system, i.e. a system with a given state s0 that is
visited infinitely often, is ergodic.
• Finite, irreducible and aperiodic CMTC are ergodic.

• Only ergodic systems will be considered in this course

29
 Ergodicity

• A non ergodic system : X(t) = reward of the state at time t

1
2 3 unit reward
1 1
1 1

1 unit reward
4 5
2

E  X     does not exist

1
T
1/ 2, with proba 0.5
lim X  t  dt  
T  T 
t 0 1, with proba 0.5
30
 Labeling Convention (Kendall-Lee)

/ / / / /
Interarrival Service Number of Queueing System Calling
time time servers discipline capacity population
distribution distribution size

M Markovian (exponential FCFS first come, Notes:

interarrival times, first served
Poisson number of LCFS last come,
arrivals) first served
D Deterministic SIRO service in
Ek Erlang with shape random order
parameter k GD general
G General discipline

Queueing Theory-31
 Labeling Convention (Kendall-Lee)

Examples:
M/M/1
M/M/5
M/G/1
M/M/3/LCFS
Ek/G/2//10
M/M/1///100

Queueing Theory-32
 Terminology and Notation
• State of the system
Number of customers in the queueing system (includes customers in
service)
• Queue length
Number of customers waiting for service
= State of the system - number of customers being served

• N(t) = State of the system at time t, t ≥ 0

• Pn(t) = Probability that exactly n customers are in the queueing
system at time t

Queueing Theory-33
 Terminology and Notation
• ln = Mean arrival rate (expected # arrivals per unit time)
of new customers when n customers are in the system

• s = Number of servers (parallel service channels)

• mn = Mean service rate for overall system
(expected # customers completing service per unit time)
when n customers are in the system

Note: mn represents the combined rate at which all busy servers

(those serving customers) achieve service completion.

Queueing Theory-34
 Terminology and Notation
When arrival and service rates are constant for all n,
l = mean arrival rate
(expected # arrivals per unit time)
m = mean service rate for a busy server
1/l = expected interarrival time
1/m = expected service time
 = l/sm
= utilization factor for the service facility
= expected fraction of time the system’s service capacity (sm)
is being utilized by arriving customers (l)

Queueing Theory-35
 Terminology and Notation
Steady State

When the system is in steady state, then

Pn = probability that exactly n customers are in the queueing system
L = expected number of customers in queueing system
= …

Lq = expected queue length (excludes customers being served)

= …

Queueing Theory-36
 Terminology and Notation
Steady State

When the system is in steady state, then

 = waiting time in system (includes service time)
for each individual customer
W = E[]

q = waiting time in queue (excludes service time)

for each individual customer
Wq = E[q]

Queueing Theory-37
 Little’s Formula
Demonstrates the relationships between L, W, Lq, and Wq
• Assume ln=l and mn=m Intuitive Explanation:
(arrival and service rates
constant for all n)
• In a steady-state queue,

L  lW
Lq  lWq

1
W  Wq 
m

Queueing Theory-38
 Little’s Formula (continued)
• This relationship also holds true for l
l (expected arrival rate)
when ln are not equal.

L  lW

Lq  l Wq

1
W  Wq 
m

where l   l n Pn
n 0

Recall, Pn is the steady state probability of having n customers in the system

Queueing Theory-39
 Heading toward M/M/s

• The most widely studied queueing models are of the form

M/M/s (s=1,2,…)
• What kind of arrival and service distributions does this model
assume?
• Reviewing the exponential distribution….
• If T ~ exponential(α), then

• A picture of the distribution:

Queueing Theory-40
 Exponential Distribution Reviewed

If T ~ exponential(), then


fT (t )  e  t
t 0
 0 t 0
t


u t
FT (t )  P(T  t )  e du  1  e
u 0

E[T] = ______ Var(T) = ______

Queueing Theory-41
 Property 1
Strictly Decreasing

The pdf of exponential, fT(t), is a strictly decreasing function

• A picture of the pdf:

fT(t)
 1 
 Area  P  T    0.393
 2 
 1 1
Area  P   T    0.239
 2 
  1
Area  P  T    0.368
 
e

t
1 1
2 

Queueing Theory-42
 Property 2
Memoryless

The exponential distribution has lack of memory

i.e. P(T > t+s | T > s) = P(T > t) for all s, t ≥ 0.

Example:
P(T > 15 min | T > 5 min) = P(T > 10 min)

The probability distribution has no memory of what has already

occurred.

Queueing Theory-43
 Property 2
Memoryless
• Prove the memoryless property

• Is this assumption reasonable?

– For interarrival times

– For service times

Queueing Theory-44
 Property 3
Minimum of Exponentials
The minimum of several independent exponential random
variables has an exponential distribution

If T1, T2, …, Tn are independent r.v.s, Ti ~ expon(i) and

U = min(T1, T2, …, Tn),
n
U ~expon(     i )
i 1

Example:
If there are n servers, each with exponential service times with mean m,
then U = time until next service completion ~ expon(____)

Queueing Theory-45
 Property 4
Poisson and Exponential

If the time between events, Xn ~ expon(), then

the number of events occurring by time t, N(t) ~ Poisson(t)

( t )n e t
P( N( t )  n )  for n  0,1,2, ...
n!
P( N( t )  0)  e t

Note:
E[X(t)] = αt, thus the expected number of events per unit time is α

Queueing Theory-46
 Property 5
Proportionality

For all positive values of t, and for small t,

P(T ≤ t+t | T > t) ≈ t

i.e. the probability of an event in interval t is proportional to the length

of that interval

Queueing Theory-47
 Property 6
Aggregation and Disaggregation

The process is unaffected by aggregation and disaggregation

Aggregation Disaggregation

N1 ~ Poisson(l1) N1 ~ Poisson(lp1)

N2 ~ Poisson(l2) p1 N2 ~ Poisson(lp2)
N ~ Poisson(l) N ~ Poisson(l) p2

… l = l1+l2+…+lk pk …
Nk ~ Poisson(lk) Nk ~ Poisson(lpk)

Note: p1+p2+…+pk=1

Queueing Theory-48
 Back to Queueing
• Remember that N(t), t ≥ 0, describes the state of the system:
The number of customers in the queueing system at time t

• We wish to analyze the distribution of N(t) in steady state

Queueing Theory-49
 Birth-and-Death Processes
• If the queueing system is M/M/…/…/…/…, N(t) is a birth-and-death
process
• A birth-and-death process either increases by 1 (birth), or
decreases by 1 (death)
• General assumptions of birth-and-death processes:
1. Given N(t) = n, the probability distribution of the time remaining until the
next birth is exponential with parameter λn
2. Given N(t) = n, the probability distribution of the time remaining until the
next death is exponential with parameter μn
3. Only one birth or death can occur at a time

Queueing Theory-50
 Rate Diagrams

0 1 2 3 4 …

Queueing Theory-51
Steady-State Balance Equations

Queueing Theory-52
Queueing Theory-53
Queueing Theory-54
Queueing Theory-55
 M/M/1 Queueing System
• Simplest queueing system based on birth-and-death
• We define
l = mean arrival rate
m = mean service rate
 = l / m = utilization ratio
• We require l < m , that is  < 1 in order to have a steady state
– Why?

Rate Diagram
l l l l l

0 1 2 3 4 …

m m m m m

Queueing Theory-56
 M/M/1 Queueing System
Steady-State Probabilities

Calculate Pn, n = 0, 1, 2, …

Queueing Theory-57
 M/M/1 Queueing System
L, Lq, W, Wq

Calculate L, Lq, W, Wq

Queueing Theory-58
 M/M/1 Example: ER
• Emergency cases arrive independently at random
• Assume arrivals follow a Poisson input process (exponential
interarrival times) and that the time spent with the ER doctor is
exponentially distributed
• Average arrival rate = 1 patient every ½ hour
l=

• Average service time = 20 minutes to treat each patient

m=

• Utilization
=

Queueing Theory-59
 M/M/1 Example: ER
Questions
What is the…
1. probability that the doctor is idle?
2. probability that there are n patients?
3. expected number of patients in the ER?
4. expected number of patients waiting for the doctor?
5. expected time in the ER?
6. expected waiting time?
7. probability that there are at least two patients waiting?
8. probability that a patient waits more than 30 minutes?

Queueing Theory-60
 Car Wash Example
• Consider the following 3 car washes
• Suppose cars arrive according to a Poisson input process and
service follows an exponential distribution
• Fill in the following table

l m L Lq W Wq P0

Car Wash A 0.1 0.5

car/min car/min

Car Wash B 0.1 0.11

car/min car/min

Car Wash C 0.1 0.1

car/min car/min

What conclusions can you draw from your results?

Queueing Theory-61
 M/M/s Queueing System
• We define
l = mean arrival rate
m = mean service rate
s = number of servers (s > 1)
 = l / sm = utilization ratio
• We require l < sm , that is  < 1 in order to have a steady state

Rate Diagram

Queueing Theory-62
Rate Diagram

Queueing Theory-63
   l n
  
 m n  1, 2, ..., s
 n!
l l ...l  Pn = CnP0
Cn  n 1 n 2 0  
m n m n 1...m1  n
l
  m 
  ns n  s  1, s  2, ...
 s! s

Queueing Theory-64
Queueing Theory-65
Queueing Theory-66
 M/M/s Queueing System
L, Lq, W, Wq

 P ( l / m ) s
 1  e  mt ( s 1l / m ) 
P(  t )  e  mt 1  0  
 s!(1   )  s  1  l / m 

 s 1   sm (1  )t
P(q  t )  1   Pn e
 n 0 

Queueing Theory-67
Queueing Theory-68
Queueing Theory-69
 M/M/s Example: A Better ER
• As before, we have
– Average arrival rate = 1 patient every ½ hour
l = 2 patients per hour
– Average service time = 20 minutes to treat each patient
m = 3 patients per hour
• Now we have 2 doctors
s=
• Utilization
=

Queueing Theory-70
 M/M/s Example: ER
Questions
What is the…
1. probability that both doctors are idle?
a) probability that exactly one doctor is idle?
2. probability that there are n patients?
3. expected number of patients in the ER?
4. expected number of patients waiting for a doctor?
5. expected time in the ER?
6. expected waiting time?
7. probability that there are at least two patients waiting?
8. probability that a patient waits more than 30 minutes?

Queueing Theory-71
Performance s=1 s=2
Measurements
ρ 2/3 1/3

L 2 3/4

Lq 4/3 1/12

W 1 hr 3/8 hr

Wq 2/3 hr 1/24 hr

P(at least two patients waiting in 0.296 0.0185

queue)

P(a patient waits more than 30 0.404 0.022

minutes)

Queueing Theory-72
Queueing Theory-73
 Travel Agency Example
• Suppose customers arrive at a travel agency according to a
Poisson input process and service times have an exponential
distribution
• We are given
– l= .10/minute = 1 customer every 10 minutes
– m = .08/minute = 8 customers every 100 minutes
• If there were only one server, what would happen?
• How many servers would you recommend?

Queueing Theory-74
Queueing Theory-75
Queueing Theory-76
Queueing Theory-77
 Single Queue vs. Multiple Queues
• Would you ever want to keep separate queues for separate
servers?

Single
queue

vs.

Multiple
queues

Queueing Theory-78
 Bank Example
• Suppose we have two tellers at a bank
• Compare the single server and multiple server models
• Assume l = 2, m = 3
L Lq W Wq P0

Queueing Theory-79
 Bank Example
Continued
• Suppose we now have 3 tellers
• Again, compare the two models

Queueing Theory-80
 M/M/s//K Queueing Model
(Finite Queue Variation of M/M/s)

• Now suppose the system has a maximum capacity, K

• We will still consider s servers
• Assuming s ≤ K, the maximum queue capacity is K – s
• List some applications for this model:

• Draw the rate diagram for this problem:

Queueing Theory-81
 M/M/s//K Queueing Model
(Finite Queue Variation of M/M/s)
Rate Diagram

0 1 2 3 4 …

Balance equations: Rate In = Rate Out

Queueing Theory-82
 M/M/s//K Queueing Model
(Finite Queue Variation of M/M/s)
Solving the balance equations, we get the following steady state
probabilities:

ln
P
n! m n 0
for n  1, 2, ..., s

1 ln
P0  Pn  P
 
n s
s K
s s! m n 0
for n  s, s  1, ..., K
1   ( l /nm! )  ( l /sm! ) l n s
n s

sm
n 1 n s 1 0 nK

Verify that these equations match those given in the text for the single
server case (M/M/1//K)

Queueing Theory-83
 M/M/s//K Queueing Model
(Finite Queue Variation of M/M/s)

P0 (l / m)s  K s K s
Lq  [1    ( K  s ) (1  )], where   l / sm
s! (1  ) 2

s 1
 s 1 
L   nPn  Lq  s1   Pn 
n 0  n 0 

To find W and Wq:

Although L ≠ lW and Lq ≠ lWq because ln is not equal for all n,

L  l W and Lq  lWq where l   l n Pn  l(1  PK )
n 0

Queueing Theory-84
 M/M/s///N Queueing Model
(Finite Calling Population Variation of M/M/s)

• Now suppose the calling population is finite

• We will still consider s servers
• Assuming s ≤ K, the maximum queue capacity is K – s
• List some applications for this model:

• Draw the rate diagram for this problem:

Queueing Theory-85
 M/M/s///N Queueing Model
(Finite Calling Population Variation of M/M/s)
Rate Diagram

Balance equations: Rate In = Rate Out

Queueing Theory-86
 M/M/s///N Results
1
P0  s 1 n n
l l
N


n 0
N!    N!
(N  n )! n!  m  n s (N  n )! s! s n s
 
m

 N! l
n

   P0 for n  0,1,..., s
 (N  n )! n!  m 
  l 
n
Pn   N !
  P0 for s nN
n s 
 (N  n )! s! s  m 


 0 for nN

N s 1
 s 1 
Lq   (n  s )Pn L   nPn  Lq  s1   Pn 
n s n 0  n 0 
Queueing Theory-87
 Queueing Models with Nonexponential Distributions

• M/G/1 Model
– Poisson input process, general service time distribution with mean 1/m
and variance 2
– Service time are independent and with the same probability distribution
– Assume  = l/m < 1
– Results P  1 
0
l2 2   2
Lq 
2(1   )
L    Lq
Wq  Lq / l

W  Wq  1/ m

Queueing Theory-88
 Queueing Models with Nonexponential Distributions

• M/Ek/1 Model
– Erlang: Sum of exponentials

fT (t ) 
mk  k 1 kmt
k
t e for t  0
k  1!
– Think it would be useful?
1
– Can readily apply the formulae on previous slide where  2 
km 2

• Other models
– M/D/1
– Ek/M/1
– etc

Queueing Theory-89
 Application of Queueing Theory

• We can use the results for the queueing models when making
decisions on design and/or operations
• Some decisions that we can address
– Number of servers
– Efficiency of the servers
– Number of queues
– Amount of waiting space in the queue
– Queueing disciplines

Queueing Theory-90
 Number of Servers

• Suppose we want to find the number of servers that minimizes the

expected total cost, E[TC]
– Expected Total Cost = Expected Service Cost + Expected Waiting Cost
(E[TC]= E[SC] + E[WC])
• How do these costs change as the number of servers change?
Expected cost

Number of servers Queueing Theory-91

 Repair Person Example

• SimInc has 10 machines that break down frequently and 8 operators

• The time between breakdowns ~ Exponential, mean 20 days
• The time to repair a machine ~ Exponential, mean 2 days
• Currently SimInc employs 1 repair person and is considering hiring
a second
• Costs:
– Each repair person costs $280/day
– Lost profit due to less than 8 operating machines:
$400/day for each machine that is down
• Objective: Minimize total cost
• Should SimInc hire the additional repair person?

Queueing Theory-92
 Repair Person Example
Problem Parameters
• What type of problem is this?
– M/M/1
– M/M/s
– M/M/s/K
– M/G/1
– M/M/s finite calling population
– M/Ek/1
– M/D/1

• What are the values of l and m?

Queueing Theory-93
 Repair Person Example
Rate Diagrams
• Draw the rate diagram for the single-server and two-server case

Single server 0 1 2 3 4 … 8 9 10

Two servers 0 1 2 3 4 … 8 9 10

• Expected service cost (per day) = E[SC] =

• Expected waiting cost (per day) = E[WC] =

Queueing Theory-94
 Repair Person Example
Steady-State Probabilities

• Write the balance equations for each case

• How to find E[WC] for s=1? s=2?

Queueing Theory-95
 Repair Person Example
E[WC] Calculations

s=1 s=2
N=n g(n)
Pn g(n) Pn Pn g(n) Pn
0 0 0.271 0 0.433 0
1 0 0.217 0 0.346 0
2 0 0.173 0 0.139 0
3 400 0.139 56 0.055 24
4 800 0.097 78 0.019 16
5 1200 0.058 70 0.006 8
6 1600 0.029 46 0.001 0
7 2000 0.012 24 0.0003 0
8 2400 0.003 7 0.00004 0
9 2800 0.0007 0 0.000004 0
10 3200 0.00007 0 0.0000002 0
E[WC] $281/day $48/day
Queueing Theory-96
 Repair Person Example
Results

• We get the following results

s E[SC]: E[WC]: E[TC]:
1 $280/day $281/day $561/day
2 $560/day $48/day $608/day
≥3 ≥ $840/day ≥ $0/day ≥ $840/day

• What should SimInc do?

Queueing Theory-97
 Supercomputer Example

• Emerald University has plans to lease a supercomputer

• They have two options
Mean number of jobs
Supercomputer Cost per day
per day
MBI 30 jobs/day $5,000/day
CRAB 25 jobs/day $3,750/day

• Students and faculty jobs are submitted on average of 20 jobs/day,

distributed Poisson

i.e. Time between submissions ~ __________

• Which computer should Emerald University lease?

Queueing Theory-98
 Supercomputer Example
Waiting Cost Function
• Assume the waiting cost is not linear:

h() = 500  + 400  2 ( = waiting time in days)

• What distribution do the waiting times follow?

• What is the expected waiting cost, E[WC]?

Queueing Theory-99
 Supercomputer Example
Results
• Next incorporate the leasing cost to determine the expected total
cost, E[TC]

• Which computer should the university lease?

Queueing Theory-100