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Manajemen Risiko

Pendahuluan
Risk Management

Risk management of many insignificant risks Risk management of significant risks


The Origin of Risk

Lack of
Uncertainty Decision making Risk
information

Orientation towards Time is a central


the future variable to be
considered
Concerns

• A situation where there exists no knowledge of its outcome.


• The variation in possible outcomes that exist in nature in a given
situation.
• High probability of failure.
• Lack of predictability about structure, outcome, or consequences in
decision or planning situations.
• The chance of something happening that will have an impact on
objectives.
Risk and Risk Assessment

Risk assessment steps:

Identify hazards Treat risks Preventing risk

Definisi risiko sangat tergantung dari konteks permasalahan yang


dihadapi dan pengukurannya masih kontroversial sekalipun risiko
merupakan sesuatu yang sangat umum dihadapi di dalam setiap
aktivitas manusia.
Hazard

• A hazard can be understood as a situation that sets some level of threat


to life, health, property, environment, personal integrity, and so on.
• From the health and safety point of view, a hazard may be understood as a
condition with the potential to cause physical impairment or health
consequences in people (or any other type of life).
• In a project environment, a hazard is anything that may affect the success
of project activities or the project as a whole.
• Similarly, companies, ventures, physical assets, the environment and
society face hazards.
• Most hazards are potential or latent but when they become active or
effective, they can generate emergency situations.
• A hazardous situation that becomes effective can cause an incident, an
accident or a disaster.
Uncertainty and Risk

• Uncertainty is not the same as risk.


• Uncertainty and risk are distinct and have different meanings.
• Uncertainty refers to the occurrence of an event about which little is known.
• Risk is the outcome of an event which is predicted on the basis of statistical
probability.
• Uncertainty exists when there is more than one possible outcome.
• Risk exists when a decision is expressed in terms of a range of possible outcomes.
• Risk stems from uncertainty, which in turn is caused by a lack of information.
• The concept of risk can be applied to nearly every human decision-making action
of which consequences are uncertain.
Risk
• In literature, the word “risk” is used in different meanings with different words
such as hazard or uncertainty (Al-Bahar and Crandall, 1990).
• Jannadi and Almishari (2003) defined risk as a combination of the probability,
the severity, and the exposure of all hazards of an activity.
• Chapman (2010 accepted risk as the “Likelihood of occurrence and the degree of
impact of a negative event adversely affecting an activity”.
• Barber (2005) defined risk as “a threat to project success, where the final impact
upon project success is not certain”
• Project Management Institute (2004) defines risk as an uncertain event of
condition, that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one
project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality.
• The European Commission suggests that a risk is any factor, event or influence
that threatens the successful completion of a project in terms of time, cost or
quality.
Basic Definition of Risk
ISO /FDIS 31000:2009(ISO/IEC Guide 73)
• Risk is the effect of uncertainty on (achievement of) objectives
• An effect is a deviation from the expected, and can be positive and /
or negative
• Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial health and
safety, and environmental goals) as can apply at different levels (such
as strategic, organization-wide, project, product and process)
• Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of lack of information related to
knowledge of an event, its consequences or likelihood.
Risk Source or Risk Factor

Risk source or risk factor is defined as any factor that has a potential to
cause harm to a project either owing to an adverse change from initial
project conditions or an unexpected situation (Fidan et al., 2011)
Risk Event

• A risk event is the occurrence of a negative happening (Standards


Australia, 2004).
• Risk factors lead to risk consequences through the occurrence of risk
events.
• Risk events can be described as variations (increases or decreases) in
quality and quantity work, productivity, performance, and schedule
such as delays, interruptions or progress payments.
Risk Consequence or Effect

• Risk consequence describes the outcome of a risk event that causes


deviation in project objectives (Fidan et al., 2011).
• Consequences of risk factors can be determined with respect to
project objectives such as cost, time, quality and safety (Al-Bahar and
Crandall, 1990; Zhang, 2007).
The Sequence

Risk Source/ Risk Consequence/


Risk Event
Risk Factors Effect
Possible Sources Event Possible Effects

Death of workman
Lack of safety provisions
Serious injury to workman
Inadequate safety checks
on site Project being stopped by the
Health and Safety Officer with the
Specialist contractor issuing of a prohibition notice
not familiar with the
system of working Injury to workman Project being delayed
on site
Loss of morale and poor labor
Defective equipment relations amongst the workforce

Unforeseen weather Prosecution and fine by statutory


conditions authorities

Lack of care by Cost of loss production and welfare


the workman payments to injured workman

Future increased cost of insurance provision


Vulnerability

• A system’s vulnerability represents the extent or the capacity of this


system to respond or cope with a hazard or a risk event (Zhang,
20017).
• A system’s vulnerability can be described from multiple aspects, such
as its exposure to a hazard, its capacity to resist hazard impacts, and
the possibility of slow recovery from hazard impacts (Watts, 1993).
• Vulnerability can be confused with risk (Ezell, 2007).
Risk in Construction Projects

• In construction projects, risk may be defined as the likelihood of a


detrimental event occurring to the project.
• Since the objectives of construction projects are usually stated as
targets established for function, cost, time and quality, the most
important risks in construction are the failure to meet these targets.
• However, risks are not always associated with negative outcomes.
Risks may represent opportunities as well, but the fact that most risks
usually have negative outcomes has led individuals to consider only
their negative side.