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Air pollution in India

Achievements and challenges

22nd Oct 2013

Sumit Sharma, Fellow, TERI

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Air pollution disasters- shifting bases
 London Smog of 1952
 Donora, Pennsylvania,
US, 1948

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Scope

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Indian growth story

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Growth of India

463 times
3.5 times

50 times

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Urban centres

Urban
agglomerates
53 cities with
population more
than 1 million

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Megacities : New Delhi

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Cities with older fleets

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Transitioned cities : Bangalore

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Growing cities : Jaipur

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Small cities : Panjim

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Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles
Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities
Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population

MoRTH,

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Environment & Industrial Others: tractors,
Bio-Technology trailors, three wheelers
Modeling & Economic Analysis (passenger vehicles), etc
Social Transformation
Expect more growth
• About 28000 two
wheelers, and 4200
cars added to India’s
vehicular fleet daily
(2011)

 As per Census 2011,


21% households have
two wheelers whereas
4.7 % have
cars/jeeps/vans
Data WDI, 2011

• More growth expected

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Lack of public transport infrastructure
700 631
Pvt. vehicles per 1000 people

600
500 439
359 387 385 383
400
314 304
263 279
300 231 256
200 161 182 177
88
100
0
l i r ta ow i r a t i
d re pa el
h ad pu lka na ba pu atn ne ura ara as
a ba alo o D ab n n ia m g P u S d n
Bh er Ka Ko uc
k
dh Mu a P do ra
ed ang N
Va
m B yd L Lu Va
Ah H

 Metros just started in few cities


 Buses are just 1% of the total vehicular fleet
 Inconvenience in public transport leading to
more private vehicle ownership in most of the
cities
 Low vehicles/Population in Mumbai, Kolkata
having better public infrastructure

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Auto Fuel Policy 2002

Bharat Stage II Bharat Stage Bharat Stage


Category
III IV

2&3 Entire country Entire country To be decided


wheelers April 2005 April 2010

Entire country Entire country 20 cities by

?
All other April 2005 April 2010 April 2010
new 11 cities-
vehicles April 2003 13 cities- No date for rest
April 2005 of the country

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Regional differentiation
 One set of standards for air quality
 Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for
13 cities and rest of the country
 Many other cities in the country are much more polluted
than the ones where better quality fuel is presently
provided.
 Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill
the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their
engines
 No road map after 2010

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Learnings from AFP2002
 The rate of increase in pollution levels in Bharat III
cities moved along a significantly lower trajectory
than a BAU scenario would have indicated
 During this time, the increase in pollution levels in
non-Bharat III cities was steep
 No progress has been made on performance
improvement of in-use vehicles

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Impact on air quality (PM10)

*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms


** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.
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Learnings from AFP2002
 Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not
achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the
country
 Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided
by AFP 2002
 The focus was more on PM control and less reductions
achieved in NOx , and hence, further advancements
required
 The share of older highly polluting vehicles in emissions is
going to reduce in future , hence need to focus on
improving emissions from newer vehicles
 Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-
road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.
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Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010)
on emissions
2500

2000
Emission (kt/year)

-19%
1500

1000
-36%
500
-36%
0
No control BS-I BS-II
PM10 NMVOC NOX
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PM reductions have been more than NOx
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Inuse vehicles -Unaccounted emissions due to driving
cycles for emission testing

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Unaccounted emissions …

• Unregistered vehicles
• Overloading
• Limited maintenance and ineffective PUC system
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Transport – Its not just PM !!
 Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India
 Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to
secondary PM formation
 NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level
Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)
 BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming
potential.

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Impacts and motivation

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Air quality (2011)

NAMP data
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Air quality (2011)

NAMP data
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PM2.5

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Satellite view (AOD)

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NO2

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Ozone simulations

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Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10

Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and


vehicles
Shift industries

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Urban air quality (Delhi)- NOx & vehicles

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Urban air quality (Delhi)- CO

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Urban air quality (Delhi)- SO2

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Ozone- Civil lines (Delhi) (9-14th Feb 2013)

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Ozone- R.K. Puram (Delhi) (9-14th Feb 2013)

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PM2.5 is 5th Leading Mortality Risk Factor

Ambient PM2.5
caused an
estimated
627,000 deaths
̴ 6% of all
deaths in 2010

GBD-Lancet, 2012
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Effects on Ozone on crop productivity

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Source apportionment studies

PM2.5 (Average)

100% 0 2
13
80%
50
70
60% 6
4
40% 16
0 4
50 3
20%
5 29
10
0%
Bangalore Delhi Pune

Transport Paved road & soil dust Industries


Domestic DG sets Secondary
Others

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Transport emissions and climate change
•Particles emitted from diesel vehicles contain
black carbon
•Gases (NOx, VOCs) emitted from different Black carbon
sources form Ozone
•Black carbon is now known to have second
highest radiative forcing after CO2 Ozone
•Other than health and agricultural effects it is
contributing to warming of the planet
•Reducing emissions may result into co-benefits

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Radiative Forcing of Climate (1750 to present):
Important Contributions from Air Pollutants

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What IPCC- AR5 says

•43% higher RF mainly due to growth in GHGs and improved


estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling effect.
•Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and
their interactions

•Observational and modelling evidences suggest locally higher surface


temperatures in polluted regions will increase peak levels of ozone.
•Short term climate forcers, such as black carbon can be comparable
to CO2’s for short time horizons , but in the long term the effect of
CO2 dominates .

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Fugitive emissions at petrol pumps

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Effect of Vapour Recovery System on VOC at
fuelling stations in Urban Delhi during winter
VOC levels at different petrol pumps with and without VRS
during winter season

1200 60

1000 49 50
48
800 40
VOC (ppb)

VRS Off
600 30 VRS On
25 %reduction
400
23 20

200 10

0 0
1 2 3 4
Petrol pumps

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Solutions for control of transport emissions

Control
•Provide ULSD in the entire country and a clear roadmap for advancement of
emission norms for the whole country
•Effective inspection and maintenance program
•Standards for fugitive emissions

Shift
•Enhancement of public transport (bus/rail/waterways) and non-motorized
transport
•Alternate fuels: CNG, LPG etc.

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Thanks

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