Point estimation (a single value)

•Let’s use an example to learn what is the so-

called point estimation.

Ex6.2: I randomly selected three midterm

papers of this year, and the scores were 57, 90,
and 95, what is the point estimation for the
population mean?

=> (57 + 90 + 95) / 3 = 80.6

(unbiased estimation)
 Interval estimation (it’s a range)

Sample mean = 1.8

Sample mean = 1.5

• What is Pr( point estimate = population mean)?

=> should be very very small, say 0.01%

• How about this probability?
Pr(1 < population mean < 10)
=> it should be larger, say 95%

• And how about Pr(0 < population mean < ∞)?

=> 100%

• As a result, interval estimation is to find out the

three numbers (a, b, c) in the following equation:
Pr (a < Y < b) = c *****
=> all you need to know is Y’s PDF
PDF
0.4
C = Confidence interval
=> 1 - α
0.3 α: level of significance

0.2

0.1 α/2 c α/2

0.0
Y
a b
• Based on Central Limited Theorem:


X ~ N ( , )
n

• Question: what kind of distribution the variable Z is

following?

X 
Z => Z ~ N(0, 1) or “standard normal”
/ n
Ex6.3
JP caught 100 roaches and found sample mean = 40
mm, what is the interval estimation for population
mean given confidence interval = 95%. Given
population SD = 4mm.

  
=> Based on CLT => X ~ N   , 
 n
X 
Let Z = , PDF 0.4
Z ~ N(0 ,1)
/ n
0.3

Z ~ N(0, 1) 0.2

95%
0.1

2.5% 2.5%
0.0
 Ex6.4
JP caught 100 roaches and found sample mean = 40 mm, what is the interval
estimation for population mean given confidence interval = 95%. Given
population SD = 4mm.
PDF

0.4
Z ~ N(0 ,1)

0.3

0.2

95%
0.1
X 
2.5% 2.5% * because Z =
/ n
0.0

-1.96 1.96 -1.96 = (40 - μ) / (4/10)

a = 40.8* b = 39.2
• But usually population SD is unknown

• Under the circumstances, we use sample SD to replace

population SD

X 
Z (Z ~ N(0,1))
S/ n

• Note that the equation above is more applicable to a

large sample size

• When sample size is small, say n < 30, we use

X 
t ; t follows t-distribution with DOF = n – 1
S/ n
• You can find different
t-table from different
textbooks

• Always check what

kind of probability
used in the table
before looking up the
number

• How to find the

number
corresponding to
right-tail probability =
0.95 using this table?

• t-distribution also
symmetrical
Ex6.4
JP caught 4 roaches and found sample mean = 40 mm and
sample SD = 4mm, what is the interval estimation for
population mean given confidence interval = 95%.

X 
PDF
=> t  0.4
t-distribution with DOF = 3
S/ n
0.3

0.2

95%
0.1

2.5% 2.5%
X 
t 0.0
** S/ n
3.18 = (40 - μ) / (4/2) -3.18 3.18

=> μ = 33.6 a = 46.4 b = 33.6

• Be careful when using Excel’s TINV function. It
requires two-tail probability but not right-tail
probability

=> TINV(two-tail pb., degree of freedom)

• But you can modify it easily to create a new function

in Excel as:
=> Mytinv (right-tail, degree of freedom)

Public Function mytinv(right_tail, dof)

mytinv = Application.WorksheetFunction.TInv(right_tail * 2, dof)

End Function
Interval estimation for population SD

(n  1) S 2
2  ******
 2

•  2
, chi-square, is a random variable following
chi-square distribution

In Excel:
CHIDIST
CHIINV
Chi-square table (!! Not symmetrical)
Ex6.6
JP caught 21 roaches and found sample SD = 1 mm,
what is the interval estimation for population SD
given confidence interval = 95%.

=> Thinking of chi-square 2

 with DOF = 20

PDF
0.4

(n  1) S 2
 
2

2
0.3

0.2

=> 0.58 < SD2 < 2.08 95%

0.1

2.5% 2.5%

=> 0.76 < SD < 1.44 0.0

Chi2 => 9.6 34.2

SD2 => 2.08* 0.58

* 2.08 = 20x1/9.6
Ex6.6
JP caught 21 roaches and found sample SD = 1 mm,
what is the interval estimation for population SD
given confidence interval = 95%.

=> Thinking of chi-square 2

 with DOF = 20

PDF
0.4

(n  1) S 2
 
2

2
0.3

0.2

=> 0.58 < SD2 < 2.08 95%

0.1

2.5% 2.5%

=> 0.76 < SD < 1.44 0.0

Chi2 => 9.6 34.2

SD2 => 2.08 0.58

(S and n and Chi2 are given)

Interval estimation for variance ratio
between two populations

S12 /  12
F 2 2 ******
S2 /  2

• F is a random variable following F-distribution

In Excel:
FDIST
FINV
(!! Not symmetrical)
Ex6.7
Find F-value with DOF1 = 10 and DOF2 = 5 with
right-tail probability = 5%
=> 4.74

Ex6.8
Find F-value with DOF1 = 10 and DOF2 = 5 with
left-tail probability = 5%

=> Flefttail (v1 , v2 )  Frighttail (v2 , v1 )  1 *****

=> 1 / 3.33 = 0.3
Ex6.9
Jerry caught 21 cockroaches in Hall I and Mike got 16
in Hall II in the HKUST. The sample variance are
1.85 and 1.65, respectively. Find the ratio of two
populations’ variance given confidence interval =
90%
F-dist with DOF1=20 and DOF2=15

PDF
=> Thinking of 0.4

S12 /  12 0.3

F 2 2
S2 /  2 0.2

90%
0.1

5% 5%
0.0

F => 0.45 2.33

SD12/SD22=> 2.45 0.48

(S1 and S2 and F are given)

Summary of performing an interval estimation
• Z, t, Chi2, or F

• Find the “RIGHT” and “LEFT” value of Z, t, Chi2, or F

PDF
0.4

0.3

0.2

CI
0.1

(1-CI)/2
(1-CI)/2
0.0

LEFT RIGHT

• Do some math finding the corresponding values from

“LEFT” and “RIGHT” values, and the equations of Z, t,
Chi2, or F
Summary of Ch6 Estimation
• Why?
=> because population statistics (i.e., a constant) is
unknown, so we use sample’s statistics (i.e., a random
variable) to estimate it

• Biased and unbiased estimator

PDF
0.4

0.3

• Interval estimation => 0.2

0.1
C
0.0
Y
a b
• Three new distributions: t, Chi2, and F