 isthe process of defining future policies, goals,

investments, and designs to prepare for future

needs to move people and goods to destinations.
Ex. of policy:

 Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 attempt to

address these concerns with a series of
actions / policy initiatives :
1. Public transit
2. High-occupancy-vehicle (HOV) roads and
lanes
3. Employer-based transportation
management programs
4. Trip-reduction ordinances
5. Traffic flow improvement programs
6. Fringe and corridor parking for multiple
occupancy vehicles and transit
7. Programs to limit and restrict vehicle use
in downtown areas
8. Shared-ride and HOV programs
9. Roads designated for exclusive use by non
motorized modes
10. Bicycle lanes and facilities (storage)
11. Control of vehicle idling
12. Programs to reduce cold-start vehicle emissions
13. Flexible work schedules
14. Programs and ordinances to reduce single-
occupant-vehicle (SOV) travel, including provisions
for special events and activity centers
15. Construction of paths for exclusive use by
pedestrian and non motorized vehicles
16. Vehicle retirement /replacement (scrap page)
programs
Analysts and researchers in planning, need
to evaluate the following:

• Travel demand and supply impacts of new

technologies (e.g., mobile voice and data
transmission)

• Traveler and transportation system manager

information provision and use (e.g., on-board
traveler information systems)
• Pricing and financing strategies (e.g.,
congestion pricing)
• Combinations of transportation
management actions and their impacts (e.g,
parking fee structures and city center
restrictions)
• Assessment of combinations of
environmental policy actions (e.g., carbon
taxes and information campaigns on the
health effects of ozone)
Typical Tools for the Planner and
Operations Manager in Transportation
MODEL ATTRIBUTES AND INNOVATIONS
IN MODELING
• Model Dimensions
Four Dimensions:
1. Geographic space and its conditional
continuity
2. Temporal scale and calendar continuity
3. Interconnectedness of jurisdictions
4. Set of relationships in social space for
individuals and their communities
1. Geographic space and its conditional
continuity
- means the physical space in which human
action occurs
- played an important role because the first
preoccupation of transportation system
designers has been to move persons from
one location to another
2. Temporal scale and calendar continuity
- means continuity of time, irreversibility
of the temporal path, and the associated
artificiality of the time period considered
in many models
3. Interconnectedness of jurisdictions
- the actions of each person are regulated by
jurisdictions with different and overlapping
domains, such as federal agencies, state
agencies, regional authorities, municipal
governments, neighborhood associations,
trade associations and societies, religious
groups, and formal and informal networks of
families and friends
4. Set of relationships in social space for
individuals and their communities
- individuals from the same household living in
a neighborhood may change their daily time
allocation patterns and location visits to
accommodate or take advantage of changes
in the neighborhood, such as elimination of
traffic and the creation of pedestrian zones
Decision-Making Paradigms

• Two decision-making settings:

(1) the travelers and their social units from
which motivations for and constraints to
their behavior emerge
(2) the transportation managers and their
organizations that serve the travelers and
their social units
• A decision-maker solves an optimization
problem and identifies the best existing
solution to this problem.

In developing alternative models to

SEU, Simon (1983) defines four theoretical
components:
1. A person’s decision is based on a utility
function assigning a numerical value to each
option—existence and consideration of a
cardinal utility function.
2. The person defines an exhaustive set of
alternative strategies among which just one will
be selected—ability to enumerate all strategies
and their consequences.
3. The person can build a probability distribution of
all possible events and outcomes for each
alternative option—infinite computational ability.
4. The person selects the alternative that has the
maximum utility—maximizing utility behavior.
Innovations in Systems Modeling Approaches

• Disaggregate Demand Models

Notable and recent developments advancing the

state of the art and practice are:
1. Better understanding of the theoretical and
particularly behavioral limitations of these
models
2. More flexible functional forms that resolve
some of the problems raised in Williams and
allowing for different choices to be correlated
when using the most popular discrete choice
regression models
3. Combination of revealed preference, stated
choices by travelers, with stated preferences and
intentions, answers to hypothetical questions by
travelers, availability of data in the same choice
framework to extract in a more informative way
travelers’ willingness to use a mode and willingness
to pay for a mode option.
4. Computer-based interviewing and laboratory
experimentation to study more complex choice situations
and the transfer of the findings to the real world. This
direction, however, is also accompanied by a wide variety
of research studies aiming at more realistic behavioral
models that go beyond mode choice and travel behavior.
5. Expansion of the discrete choice framework using ideas
from latent class models with covariates that were first
developed by Lazarsfeld in the 1950s and their estimation
finalized by Goodman in the 1970s (see the review in
Goodman 2002 and discrete choice applications in
Bockenholdt 2002). This family of models was used in
Goulias (1999) to study the dynamics of activity and travel
behavior and in the study of choice in travel behavior.
• Constraints and Related Ideas
- is a set of linked tasks that are undertaken
somewhere at some time within a
constraining environment.
- this idea of the project underlies one of the
most exciting developments in travel
behavior the activity-based approaches to
travel demand analysis and forecasting, which
can be considered as a method of modeling
time allocation.
• Emphasis on Time Allocation

The basic ingredients of an activity-based

approach for travel demand analysis are:

1. Explicit treatment of travel as derived

demand participation in activities such as
work, shop, and leisure motivate travel,
but travel can also be an activity.
2. The household is considered to be the
fundamental social unit (decision-making unit),
and the interactions among household members
are explicitly modeled to capture task allocation
and roles within the household.
3. Explicit consideration of constraints by the spatial,
temporal, and social dimensions of the
environment is given. These constraints can be
explicit models of time-space prisms.
• Consideration of Behavioral Dynamics
- at the heart of behavioral change are
questions about the process followed in
shifting from a given pattern of behavior to
another.
- in addition to measuring change and the
relationships among behavioral indicators
that change in their values over time, we
are also interested in the timing,
sequencing, and staging of these changes.
• Integration of Transportation with Other Models
- due to urban sprawl and suburban congestion,
increasing attention was paid to their complex
interdependencies.
- this led to a variety of attempts to develop
integrated model systems that would enable
the study of scenarios of change and mutual
influence between land use and travel.
• Telecommunication as an Infrastructure
Component
- today telecommunication and transportation
relationships are absent from regional
simulation planning and modeling as well from
the most advanced land use and transportation
integrated models.
- family of electronic technologies and services
used to process, store and disseminate
information, facilitating the performance of
information-related human activities, provided
by, and serving the institutional and business
sectors as well as the public-at-large.’’
Enabling Technologies

• Stochastic microsimulation
- here refers to an evolutionary engine
software that is used to replicate the
relationships among social, economic, and
demographic factors with land use, time
use, and travel by people.
• Production systems
- were first developed by Newell and Simon
(1972) to depict explicitly the way humans go
about solving problems.
- models of this kind are called computational
process models, and through the use of If-
Then rules they have made possible first the
creation of a framework.
• Geographic information systems
- are software systems that can be used to
collect, store, analyze, modify, and display
large amounts of geographic data.