TSEC Biosys

TSEC Biosys

www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
The UK’s energy crop potential in current
and future climates
Gail Taylor
University of Southampton
University of Aberdeen, Forest Research, Imperial College, Scottish Agricultural College,
Rothamsted Research

The Royal Society, London: 28th July 2009

1
 Strategic importance of bioenergy
TSEC Biosys

remains high – UK Renewable Energy Strategy, TSEC Biosys

2009
• UK Renewable Energy
Strategy – July 2009
– Biomass for heat
– Sustainable biofuels
– Biomass for electricity
• Better management
of woodlands
• Increased growth of
dedicated energy
crops
• New crops for
bioenergy
2
 UK Biomass supply?
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Food crops
– Oil seed rape – 800,000 ha
– Wheat – 2 million ha
• Woodland and woody biomass resource
– Could supply 2-20 million tonnes annually
• Waste
– 2-10 million tonnes
• Dedicated energy crops – grasses and trees
– Currently approximately 15,000 ha – 150,000 tonnes
– Could supply 1-10 million tonnes biomass for energy

3
 Aims of TSEC-BIOSYS
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Quantify biomass for bioenergy supply at

regional scale
• Develop spatial and temporal supply maps
• Cost-based supply analysis
• Map environmental constraints – GHG, water,
biodiversity
• Develop process based models – test new
genotypes and assess impacts of climate
change UKCIP2003/09 scenarios
4
 Why focus on 2G crops? TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Improved energy balance, GHG

balance compared to food crops-
sustainable
• Ability to be grown on wide
categories of agricultural and non-
agricultural (abandoned and
marginal) land
• Very limited evidence base
compared to food crops – models,
supply, costs, genotypes, etc 5
 Approach – integrate disparate TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

data
• Used available datasets, alongside those for
soil, temperature, water availability etc., to
develop empirical yield maps – correlations
for current conditions
-miscanthus
-SRC
• Use available datasets to develop predictive
process-based models – able to make
statements about future climates?
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 TSEC Biosys

How can yield maps be useful? TSEC Biosys

Growers and planners

Bioenergy
developers/economic
analysis
Assess environmental
impacts

biodiversity GHG

SRC yield from Aylott et al 2008, New Phytologist.

Water
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 Empirical Yield TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

Maps
Forest Research 49 site
trial (DEFRA)

• Extensive database

• Good coverage of UK
climatic zones

• Willow and poplar 8

 Empirical model: Results TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

Genus Genotype Rotation

Mean Yield Mean Yield • Models described 51-
(Observed) (Modelled)
Populus Beaupré First 7.34 (2.33) 7.42 (1.25)
75% of yield variation
Populus Ghoy First 6.45 (2.47) 6.50 (1.38)

Populus Trichobel First 9.08 (2.67) 9.31 (1.37) • Willow yields were
Salix Germany First 7.14 (2.94) 7.05 (1.83) higher than poplar,
Salix Jorunn First 9.09 (3.01) 9.29 (2.09) particularly in the 2nd
Salix Q83 First 8.03 (3.23) 8.21 (2.09) rotation
Populus Beaupré Second 4.87 (2.43) 4.90 (1.38)

Populus Ghoy Second 5.77 (2.46) 5.85 (1.24) • Spring/summer

Populus Trichobel Second 9.59 (2.78) 9.70 (1.38) precipitation correlates
Salix Germany Second 7.46 (4.00) 7.49 (2.46) highly with yield,
Salix Jorunn Second 9.15 (2.70) 9.30 (1.77) indicating both species
Salix Q83 Second 10.71 (3.74) 10.72 (1.38) were affected most by
water supply
 TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

Trichobel P Jorunn W Q83

We have produced extensive yield map datasets

for SRC willow and poplar
 Ar Yield ( dry matter - t ha-1 )
th
ur -1
Ri Yield ( dry matter - t ha )
c

0
5
10
15
20
kw

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
oo
Bo d
xw
or
th
Br Br
oo id
m ge
s ts
Bu Bar
ck n
fa TG
st
Ab
G

RES 480
RES 408
be
le
Hi ad y
gh th
or
M pe
ow
th
Ro or
pe
se
m
a
Ro u nd
Ro se
th w
am arn
st e
Ro ed
th 40
am
8
Ro sted
th
am 480
st
ed
TG
W
ob SC
ur
W n RI
ob m
ai
ur n
n TG
m
icr
o
TG

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Richter, G. M. et al. (2008) Soil Use and Management 24 (3), 235
TSEC Biosys
Empirical yield model for Miscanthus
TSEC Biosys
Land use trade-offs - Methods TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Accounted for land quality by

Agricultural Land Classification
(ALC) grade and currently grown
food crops
• Incorporated a range of
constraints on energy crops
– environmental, physical
– agricultural, agronomic
– socio-economic

• Used revised Miscanthus yield

map for England and display on
ALC 3, 4 land only

Lovett, A. A. et al., BioEnergy Research (2009)

Regional distribution of Miscanthus yield TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Regional contrasts occur in the

importance of different
constraints
• Areas with highest yields co-
locate with important food
producing areas
• On average, Miscanthus yields
12.5 odt ha-1 on suitable land (ALC
3 or 4)
• Between 10 and 40% are likely to
be below an economic threshold
of 9 t/ha

Lovett, A. A. et al., BioEnergy Research (in press)

 Excluded areas:
• Areas of Outstanding
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Natural Beauty
• National Park
• Forest Park
• Planted Ancient
Woodland Site
• RSPB Reserve
• Inland water, town and
road
• National Trust land
• Lowland
Heath/Bogs/Fens/Mire
• Ancient woodland
• Coastal sand dune
SRC Yield in North West • RAMSAR site
5000
• SSSI
4000
• Special Protected Area
Hectares

3000 • Local or National Nature

2000 Reserve
1000 • Countryside Right of Way
0 • Registered Common Land
9.8056

11.475
6.6383
7.78
8.1078
8.4089
8.6917
8.9706
9.2489
9.5272

10.64
10.0833
10.3617

10.9178
11.1961

11.7606
12.0583
12.3833
12.8378
13.5728

• Country Park
• Listed building, World
Yield (odt/ha/yr) Heritage Site or
Monument
Supply & Demand Modelling TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Majority of land would

yield between 10 - 14 t
odm/ha/yr

• Map based on annual

costs of 20 - 60 £/odt

• Preference map shows 4.4

Mha of Miscanthus and 6
Mha of SRC

• This preference may

change with better
estimates (models) and
varieties
Assessing the GHG mitigation potential of UK bioenergy crops
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

 SRC and Miscanthus generally

have better soil C balance than
WW or OSR (i.e. they have
lower net emissions or higher
net sequestration)

 Soil GHG emissions are highest

in regions where Soil C is
currently highest, e.g. Westerly
regions, the fens.

 So net balance clearly depends

both on the bioenergy crop
cultivated, and on the initial soil
conditions (directly affected by
previous land use).
 -1
Annual net emissions, t CE ha

-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6

with Miscanthus

with SRC poplar

with winter

soil
wheat

Replace arable
with oilseed
rape

with Miscanthus

with SRC poplar

incl. prev. LU management

Topic 3.2

with winter
wheat

Replace Grassland
with oilseed
rape

with Miscanthus
incl. fossil fuel displaced

with SRC poplar

with winter
wheat

with oilseed
Replace Forest/Semi-natural
GHG balance – also combined with LCA from

rape
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
 What about climate change? TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Predictive, process-based models are required

• Process-based models also identify plant

target traits for future breeding

• Grass and tree models exist but they are not

parameterized or validated for SRC and
miscanthus
 Process based modelling TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

• Process-based models allow linkages between climate

change scenarios and productivity to be investigated.
• The forest productivity model, ForestGrowth1,2, has
been parameterised for SRC using literature and field
measurements3,4.
• Outputs have been validated against site/species-
specific data5.

1. (Evans et al., 2004), 2. (Deckmyn et al., 2004)

3. (Casella & Sinoquet, 2003), 4. (Gielen et al., 2003)
5. (Aylott et al., unpublished data)
 Model overview TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

ForestGrowth
• Phase 1: Storage carbon
replenishes the existing
canopy for 20 days
• Phase 2: Leaves are then
added and if there is
insufficient light, stem
growth will occur
• Phase 3: Carbon will be
added to the pool of
stored carbon – in
preparation for the
following years growth
• Phase 4: Leaf fall occurs
Phase 5: Dormancy
Process model – work in progress TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

ForestGrowth Outputs

• ForestGrowth has been

parameterised for two poplar
species (and soon for willow).

• Preliminary evidence – 20%

yield increase when temp,
rainfall and CO2 modified to
2050 medium scenarios
Productivity map of Populus trichocarpa
genotype ‘trichobel’, second rotation
 What about growers? TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TS E C
Bios ys

• Drax & Wilton 10

• Eccleshall

• Didcot

• 150 respondents

• 3 growing SRC Willow

• 9 growing Miscanthus
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 TSEC BIOSYS TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TS E C
Bios ys

Q2.6 Are you intending to plant SRC Willow on your farm in the next five
years?

70

60

50
No. of responses

40

30

20

10

Certainly not Probably not Unsure Probably Certainly

Imperil College London 23

Key findings for policy makers TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TS E C
Bios ys

from farmer attitudes

– Significant non-financial barriers including

security and stability of income from
contracts

– Simply increasing gross margin without

tackling these barriers won’t bring about
widespread adoption

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 TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

Summary – key findings

• We have developed empirical yield models for SRC
willow, poplar and miscanthus and GIS-based maps –
tools for stakeholders. Contribute to developing the
energy landscape in the UK.
• Made massive strides forward towards predictive yield
modelling – parameterize and validate.
• We have mapped GHG emissions for miscanthus and
SRC – important outputs emerging
• Identified the non-financial barriers to farmer uptake –
How can we overcome them?
Thank you for your attention! TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
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