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Risk
Lecture No. 30
Professor C. S. Park
Fundamentals of Engineering Economics
Copyright © 2005
Probability Concepts for Investment
Decisions
Random variable: variable that
can have more than one
possible value
Discrete random variables: Any
random variables that take on
only isolated values
Continuous random variables:
any random variables can have
any value in a certain interval
Probability distribution: the
assessment of probability for
each random event
Expected Return/Risk Trade-off
Probability (%)
Investment A
Investment B
Return (%)
Measure of Expectation
j
E[ X ] ( p j ) x j (discrete case)
j 1
1 6% 0.40 2.4%
2 9% 0.30 2.7%
3 18% 0.30 5.4%
Expected 10.5%
Return
Measure of Variation
j
Var x 2x ( x j ) 2 ( p j )
j 1
x Var X
Var X p x ( p j x j )
2
j j
2
E X 2
(E X ) 2
Variance Calculation
N
E ( An )
E[ PW ( r )]
n 0 (1 r ) n
N
V ( An )
V [ PW ( r )]
n 0 (1 r ) 2 n
1 1,000 200
= $494
2 2,000 500
-3 -2 - 0 2 3
-$759 $2,205
= $723
Present Worth Distribution
more precise
probabilistic statement 0 E[ PW (i )]
P[ PW (i ) 0] P Z
of PW for the project. [ PW (i )]
723
P Z P Z 1.4648
493.58
0.0728
2. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Approach