STATISTICAL MODELS

Binomial Models
• Occurs in experiment which have only two
possible outcomes one which is termed “success”
and the other “failure.”
• Conditions
1. There must be a fixed number (n) of trials
2. The trials must be independent
3. The trials are have only two outcomes: success
or failure.
4. The probability of success (p) is constant for
each trial.
 formula
• If the probability that an experiment results in
a successful outcome is p and the probability
that the outcome is a failure is q, where q=1 –
p.
• P(X=r) = nCrprqn-r where r = 0, 1, 2, …………, n
• And we say X ~ Bin (n, p)
 Worked Example
Question:
• A coin is biased so that the probability of
obtaining a head in 1/6.
(a) Find the probability of that in 7 tosses of the
coin exactly 3 heads are obtained.
(b) Find the probability that of obtaining more
than 3 heads
 Solution:

(a) n = 7, p =1/6, q= 1-p=5/6

X = Bin(n, p)
= Bin(7, 1/6)
= nCrprqn-r)

= 7C3(1/3)3(1/3)4
= 0,078
 Solution
(b) P(X>3) = 1 – P(<=2)
= 1 –(P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) )
n = 7, p =1/6, q= 1-p=5/6
= 7C0(1/6)0(5/6)7+7C1(1/6)1(5/6)6+7C2(1/6)2(5/6)56
=1 -0.904
= 0,096
 Expectation and Variance
• If the random variable X is such that X ~ Bin(n, p)
Then E(X) =np
Var(X) = npq
Question
The probability that it is a rainy is 0.3. Find
the expected number of rainy days in 2
weeks and the standard deviation.
 Solutions
Let the rainy day be the success .
Then n = 14, p=0.3 and q = 0.7
• X ~ Bin(14, 0.3) Var(X) = npq
• E(X) = np = 14*0.3*0.7
• =14*0.3 = 2.94
• = 4.2
 Geometric Model
• A Geometric distribution arises when we have
a sequence of independent trials, each with a
definite probability (p) of success and the
probability. (q) of failure, where q = 1 –p.
• Let X be the r.v the number of trials upto and
including the first success.
• Now
P(X=1) = P(success on the first attempt) = p
P(X=2) = P(success on the second attempt) = qp
P(X=3) = P(success on the third attempt) = q2p
P(X=4) = P(success on the fourth attempt) = q3p
In general P(X=r) =qr-1p
 Question
• A coin is biased that the probability of
obtaining a head is 2/3. If X is r.v the number
of tosses upto including the first head.
• (a) Find P(X<=2)
• (b) P(X>4)
 Solution
(a) X ~Geo(2/3)
• p = 2/3 and q = 1/3
• (a) P(X<=2) = 1 – p(X>2)
= 1 –(1/3) 2
= 8/9

(b) X ~Geo(2/3)
P(X> 4) = (1 /2) 4
= 1/81
 Expectation and Variance
• If X ~ Geo(p), the E(X) =1/p and Var(X) =q/p2
where q = 1 – p
Example : If X ~ Geo(1/5), Find E(X) and Standard deviation of X
Solution:
Here p 1/5 and q = 4/5
E(X) = 1/p

= 1/(1/5)
=5
Var(X) = q/p2

= (4/5)/(1/5) 2
= 20
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• -was named after Simeon Dennis
Poison(1781-1840)
• Poison distribution is a discrete probability
distribution for the count of events that occur
randomly in a given interval or time.
• Poison distribution might be appropriate
model in the following cases.
 Conditions under which a Poisson
distribution is likely to arise are:
• (a) - the N events occur independently of
each other.
• (b) - the events occurs singly in continuous
space of time.
• (c) - the events occur at a constant rate, in
the sense that the mean number interval is
proportional to the length of the interval.
• (d) - the mean and the variance are equal.
 Applications
• The poison distribution has a single parameter
(ʎ), which may be estimated from the
observed data using
Applications:
• The number of radioactive particles emitted
by a certain source during 5-minute period.
• The number of suicide cases in a city.
• The number of accidents occurring
• The number of bacteria per 5ml of liquid
• The number of air crushes per year.
 Formulae for Poison Distribution
• A discrete random variable X had probability
function of the form
• Theta, lamda
• P (X = r) = e‾ʎʎr
r!
For r = 0,1,2,3,……..infinity
e ~ is an mathematical constant which is
approximately to ~2.718282
where ʎ(lambda) can take positive values
Practical example of Poison Distribution

• Let X be the average birth of 3 per hour

Lambda =3
• Now we can calculate the probability of having 4
birth per hour
• Then X ~Po(3)
• Now p(X=r) = e‾ʎʎr
r!
• P(X=0) = e‾330
0!
= 0.050
• Now probability of having a one child P(X=1) = e‾3 31
1!
= 0.149

• Now probability of having two babies P(X=2) = e‾3 32

2!
= 0.224

• Now probability of having three babies P(X=3) = e‾3 33

3!
= 0.149

• Now probability of having greater than two babies

P(X>2) = 1 – P(X<=2)
=1 –((P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2))
= 1-(0.050+0.149+0.224)
= 0.557
 Expectation and Variance
• If X ~ Geo(p), the E(X) =1/p and Var(X) =q/p2
where q = 1 – p
Example : If X ~ Geo(1/5), Find E(X) and Standard deviation of X
Solution:
Here p 1/5 and q = 4/5
E(X) = 1/p

= 1/(1/5)
=5

Var(X) = q/p2

= (4/5)/(1/5) 2

= 20
 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

Continuous random variables can be used to

describe random phenomena in which the
variable can take on any value in some
interval.
 Exponential Distribution
Usually, exponential distribution is used to describe the time or
distance until some event happens.
It is in the form of:

where x ≥ 0 and μ>0. μ is the mean or expected value.

Memoryless property

For all s and t greater or equal to 0:

P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t)

Example: A lamp ~ exp(λ = 1/3 per hour), hence,
on average, 1 failure per 3 hours. The
probability that the lamp lasts longer than its
mean life is:
P(X > 3) = 1-(1-e-3/3) = e-1= 0.368
The probability that the lamp lasts between 2 to 3
hours is:
P(2 <= X <= 3) = F(3) – F(2) = 0.145