You are on page 1of 29

Shamim Hosen

Assistant Director
RPATC, Rajshahi
Shamim.du207@gmail.com
1st Portion:
 Preface
 Characteristics of DMP
 Techniques of DMP
 Decision-making Models
 7 Steps of DMP
 Review
2nd Portion:
 Exercise
 Feedback & Question

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 2
 Most decisions are not made in a logical manner
 Individuals make decisions, but organizational
decisions are not made by a single individual
 Conflict exists when problems are not agreed on
 Organizations operate in high-velocity
environments
 Allowing biases to cloud decision making can
have negative consequences
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 3
 Decision = choice made from available alternatives
Made up of a composite of information, data,
facts and belief.

 Decision Making = process of identifying


problems and opportunities and resolving them

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 4
Decision Making Process is a method of making
choices by identifying a decision, gathering
information, and assessing alternative resolutions.

As defined by Baker et al in their 2001 study, “efficient


decision-making involves a series of steps that require
the input of information at different stages of the
process, as well as a process for feedback”.

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 5
 Objectives must first be established
 Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance
 Alternative actions must be developed
 The alternatives must be evaluated against all the objectives
 The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the
tentative decision
 The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible
consequences
 There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision
model that can be used to determine an optimal production plan
 In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing may be helpful for
predicting decisions to be made by involved parties

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 6
 Programmed Decisions
› Situations occurred often enough to enable
decision rules to be developed and applied in
the future
› Made in response to recurring organizational
problems
 Non-programmed Decisions – in response to
unique, poorly defined and largely unstructured, and
have important consequences to the organization

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 7
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 8
In the 1980s, psychologist Leon Mann and colleagues
developed a decision-making route called GOFER, which
they taught to adolescents, as summarized in the
book Teaching Decision Making To Adolescents.
GOFER is an acronym for five decision-making steps:
o Goals clarification: Survey values and objectives.
o Options generation: Consider a wide range of alternative
actions.
o Facts-finding: Search for information.
o Consideration of Effects: Weigh the positive and negative
consequences of the options.
o Review and implementation: Plan how to implement the
options and implement them.

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 9
In 2008, Kristina Guo published the DECIDE model
of decision-making, which has six parts:
 Define the problem
 Establish or Enumerate all the criteria (constraints)
 Consider or Collect all the alternatives
 Identify the best alternative
 Develop and implement a plan of action
 Evaluate and monitor the solution and
examine feedback when necessary
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 10
Certainty
● all the information the decision maker needs is fully available
Risk
● decision has clear-cut goals
● good information is available
● future outcomes are subject to chance
Uncertainty
● managers know which goals they wish to achieve
● information about alternatives and future events is incomplete
● managers may have to come up with creative approaches to
alternatives
Ambiguity
● by far the most difficult decision situation
● goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear
● alternatives are difficult to define
● information about outcomes is unavailable
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 11
Organizational
Problem

Low Possibility of Failure High


Certainty Risk Uncertainty Ambiguity

Programmed Nonprogrammed
Decisions Decisions

Problem
Solution

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 12
 Depends on the manager’s
personal preference
 Whether the decision is
programmed or non-
programmed
 Extent to which the
decision is characterized
by risk, uncertainty, or
ambiguity

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 13
 The Classical Model
 The Administrative Model
 The Political Model
 The Garbage can Model
 The Incremental Decision Model
 The Carnegie Model
 The Management Science Approach
 The Rational Approach
 The Bounded Rationality Perspective Model
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 14
THREE DECISION-MAKING
MODELS

Classical Administrative Political


Model Model Model

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 15
Logical decision in the organization’s best economic interests

Assumptions
 Decision maker operates to accomplish goals that
are known and agreed upon
 Decision maker strives for condition of certainty –
gathers complete information
 Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known
 Decision maker is rational and uses logic
Normative = describes how a manager should
and provides guidelines for reaching an ideal
decision
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 16
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 17
Two concepts are instrumental in shaping the
administrative model
Bounded rationality: people have limits or boundaries
on how rational they can be

Satisfying: means that decision makers choose the first


solution alternative that satisfies minimal decision
criteria

Herbert A. Simon
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 18
 
Evaluation Recognition of
and Decision
Feedback Requirement


Implementation Diagnosis
of Chosen Decision- and Analysis
Alternative Making of Causes

Process

Selection of Development of
Desired Alternatives
Alternative

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 19
● Closely resembles the real environment in which most
managers and decision makers operate
● Useful in making non-programmed decisions
● Decisions are complex
● Disagreement and conflict over problems and solutions
are normal
● Coalition = informal alliance among manages
who support a specific goal

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 20
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 21
Classical Model Administrative Model Political Model

Clear-cut problem and goals Vague problem and goals Pluralistic; conflicting goals
Condition of certainty Condition of uncertainty Condition of uncertainty/ambiguity
Full information about Limited information about Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous
alternatives and their outcomes Alternatives and their outcomes information
Rational choice by individual Satisfying choice for resolving Bargaining and discussion among
for maximizing outcomes problem using intuition coalition members

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 22
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 23
Step 1: Identify the decision
You realize that you need to make a decision. Try to clearly define the nature of the decision you must make. This
first step is very important.
Step 2: Gather relevant information
Collect some pertinent information before you make your decision: what information is needed, the best sources of
information, and how to get it. This step involves both internal and external “work.” Some information is internal:
you’ll seek it through a process of self-assessment. Other information is external: you’ll find it online, in books, from
other people, and from other sources.
Step 3: Identify the alternatives
As you collect information, you will probably identify several possible paths of action, or alternatives. You can also
use your imagination and additional information to construct new alternatives. In this step, you will list all possible
and desirable alternatives.
Step 4: Weigh the evidence
Draw on your information and emotions to imagine what it would be like if you carried out each of the alternatives to
the end. Evaluate whether the need identified in Step 1 would be met or resolved through the use of each
alternative. As you go through this difficult internal process, you’ll begin to favor certain alternatives: those that
seem to have a higher potential for reaching your goal. Finally, place the alternatives in a priority order, based upon
your own value system.
Step 5: Choose among alternatives
Once you have weighed all the evidence, you are ready to select the alternative that seems to be best one for you.
You may even choose a combination of alternatives. Your choice in Step 5 may very likely be the same or similar to
the alternative you placed at the top of your list at the end of Step 4.
Step 6: Take action
You’re now ready to take some positive action by beginning to implement the alternative you chose in Step 5.
Step 7: Review your decision & its consequences
In this final step, consider the results of your decision and evaluate whether or not it has resolved the need you
identified in Step 1. If the decision has not met the identified need, you may want to repeat certain steps of the
process to make a new decision. For example, you might want to gather more detailed or somewhat different
information or explore additional alternatives.

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 24
 How significant is the decision?
 How important is subordinate commitment?
 What is the level of the leader’s expertise?
 If the leader were to make the decision alone at what
level would subordinates be committed to the decision?
 What level is the subordinate’s support for the team or
organization’s objectives?
 What is the member’s level of knowledge or expertise
relative to the problem?
 How skilled or committed are group members to
working together?
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 25
 Always continuous &
dynamics
 It is not only a process
and also a practice
 A good decision maker
will be the good
manager
 Be a best decision
maker, Be a best
manager

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 26
10 Minutes Exercise

shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 27
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 28
shamim_rpatc_rajshahi 29