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Regression

Models

To accompany

Quantitative Analysis for Management, Twelfth Edition,

by Render, Stair, Hanna and Hale

Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After completing this chapter, students will be able to:

2. Develop simple linear regression equations from

sample data and interpret the slope and intercept

3. Compute the coefficient of determination and the

coefficient of correlation and interpret their meanings

4. Interpret the F test in a linear regression model

5. List the assumptions used in regression and use

residual plots to identify problems

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After completing this chapter, students will be able to:

prediction purposes

7. Use dummy variables to model categorical data

8. Determine which variables should be included in a

multiple regression model

9. Transform a nonlinear function into a linear one for use

in regression

10. Understand and avoid common mistakes made in the

use of regression analysis

CHAPTER OUTLINE

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Scatter Diagrams

4.3 Simple Linear Regression

4.4 Measuring the Fit of the Regression Model

4.5 Assumptions of the Regression Model

4.6 Testing the Model for Significance

CHAPTER OUTLINE

4.7 Using Computer Software for Regression

4.8 Multiple Regression Analysis

4.9 Binary or Dummy Variables

4.10 Model Building

4.11 Nonlinear Regression

4.12 Cautions and Pitfalls in Regression Analysis

Introduction

• Regression analysis – very valuable tool for a

manager

– Understand the relationship between variables

– Predict the value of one variable based on another

variable

• Simple linear regression models have only

two variables

• Multiple regression models have more than

one independent variable

Introduction

• Variable to be predicted is called the

dependent variable or response variable

– Value depends on the value of the independent

variable(s)

– Explanatory or predictor variable

variable

= variable

+ variable

Scatter Diagram

• Scatter diagram or scatter plot often used to

investigate the relationship between variables

– Independent variable normally plotted on X axis

– Dependent variable normally plotted on Y axis

Triple A Construction

• Triple A Construction renovates old homes

• The dollar volume of renovation work is

dependent on the area payroll

TABLE 4.1

($100,000s) ($100,000,000s)

6 3

8 4

9 6

5 4

4.5 2

9.5 5

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4–9

Triple A Construction

Figure 4.1 – Scatter Diagram

12 –

10 –

Sales ($100,000)

8–

6–

4–

2–

0 |– | | | | | | | |

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Payroll ($100 million)

Simple Linear Regression

• Regression models used to test relationships

between variables

– Random error

Y = b0 + b1 X + e

where

Y = dependent variable (response)

X = independent variable (predictor or explanatory)

0 = intercept (value of Y when X = 0)

1 = slope of the regression line

e = random error

Simple Linear Regression

• True values for the slope and intercept are not

known

– Estimated using sample data

Ŷ = b0 + b1 X

where

^

Y = predicted value of Y

b0 = estimate of β0, based on sample results

b1 = estimate of β1, based on sample results

Triple A Construction

• Predict sales based on area payroll

Y = Sales

X = Area payroll

– The line Figure 4.1 minimizes the errors

Error = (Actual value) – (Predicted value)

e =Y - Yˆ

– Regression analysis minimizes the sum of squared

errors

– Least-squares regression

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 13

Triple A Construction

• Formulas for simple linear regression,

intercept and slope

Ŷ = b0 + b1 X

X=

å X

= average (mean) of X values

n

Y=

åY = average (mean) of Y values

n

b1 =

å(X - X )(Y -Y )

å (X - X ) 2

b0 = Y - b1 X

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 14

Triple A Construction

TABLE 4.2 – Regression calculations

Y X (X – X)2 (X – X)(Y – Y)

6 3 (3 – 4)2 = 1 (3 – 4)(6 – 7) = 1

8 4 (4 – 4)2 = 0 (4 – 4)(8 – 7) = 0

9 6 (6 – 4)2 = 4 (6 – 4)(9 – 7) = 4

5 4 (4 – 4)2 = 0 (4 – 4)(5 – 7) = 0

4.5 2 (2 – 4)2 = 4 (2 – 4)(4.5 – 7) = 5

9.5 5 (5 – 4)2 = 1 (5 – 4)(9.5 – 7) = 2.5

ΣY = 42 ΣX = 24 Σ(X – X)2 = 10 Σ(X – X)(Y – Y) = 12.5

Y = 42/6 = 7 X = 24/6 = 4

Triple A Construction

• Regression calculations

X=

å X 24

= =4 Y=

åY 42

= =7

6 6 6 6

b =

å (X – X )(Y –Y ) 12.5

= = 1.25

1

å(X – X ) 10 2

b0 = Y - b1 X = 7 – (1.25)(4) = 2

Therefore Ŷ = 2 + 1.25X

Triple A Construction

• Regression calculations

X=

å = =4 Y=

å

X 24 sales = 2 + 1.25(payroll)

Y 42

= =7

6 6 6 6

If the payroll next

b1 =

å (X – X )(Yyear

–Y )is $600

=

12.5 million

= 1.25

å(X – XŶ )= 2 + 1.25(6)

2

10

= 9.5 or $ 950,000

b0 = Y - b1 X = 7 – (1.25)(4) = 2

Therefore Ŷ = 2 + 1.25X

Measuring the Fit

of the Regression Model

• Regression models can be developed for any

variables X and Y

• How helpful is the model in predicting Y?

• With average error positive and negative

errors cancel each other out

• Three measures of variability

– SST – Total variability about the mean

– SSE – Variability about the regression line

– SSR – Total variability that is explained by the

model

Measuring the Fit

of the Regression Model

• Sum of squares total

SST = å(Y -Y )2

• Sum of squares error

SSE = å e2 = å(Y - Ŷ )2

• Sum of squares regression

SSR = å(Yˆ -Y )2

• An important relationship

SST = SSR + SSE

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 19

Measuring the Fit

of the Regression Model

TABLE 4.3 – Sum of Squares for Triple A Construction

^ ^ ^

Y X (Y – Y)2 Y (Y – Y)2 (Y – Y)2

6 3 (6 – 7)2 = 1 2 + 1.25(3) = 5.75 0.0625 1.563

^2 ^

∑(Y – Y)2 = 22.5 ∑(Y – Y) = 6.875 ∑(Y – Y)2 = 15.625

Y=7 SST = 22.5 SSE = 6.875 SSR = 15.625

Measuring the Fit

of the Regression Model

• Sum of squares total

å

SST = For

(Y -Y )

Triple

2

A Construction

• Sum of squares error SST = 22.5

SSE =2 6.875

SSE = å e = å(Y - Ŷ )

2

SSR = 15.625

• Sum of squares regression

SSR = å(Yˆ -Y )2

• An important relationship

SST = SSR + SSE

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 21

Measuring the Fit

of the Regression Model

FIGURE 4.2 – Deviations from the Regression Line and from the Mean

12 –

Ŷ = 2 + 1.25X

10 –

Y – Ŷ

Sales ($100,000)

8– Y –Y

Yˆ – Y Y

6–

4–

2–

0 |– | | | | | | | |

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Payroll ($100 million)

Coefficient of Determination

• The proportion of the variability in Y explained

by the regression equation

– The coefficient of determination is r2.

SSR SSE

r2 = =1 –

SST SST

15.625

r2 = = 0.6944

22.5

Coefficient of Determination

• The proportion of the variability in Y explained

by the regression equation

– The coefficient of determination is r2.

SSR About

SSE69% of the

r = = 1 variability

– 2

SST SST in Y is

explained by the equation

– For Triple A Construction based on payroll (X)

15.625

r2 = = 0.6944

22.5

Correlation Coefficient

• An expression of the strength of the linear

relationship

– Always between +1 and –1

– The correlation coefficient is r

r = ± r2

r = 0.6944 = 0.8333

Four Values of the

FIGURE 4.3

Correlation Coefficient

Y Y

Correlation: Correlation:

r = +1 0<r<1

Y Y

r=0 Correlation:

r = –1

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 26

Assumptions of the

Regression Model

• With certain assumptions about the errors,

statistical tests can be performed to determine

the model’s usefulness

1. Errors are independent

2. Errors are normally distributed

3. Errors have a mean of zero

4. Errors have a constant variance

• A plot of the residuals (errors) often highlights

glaring violations of assumptions

Residual Plots

FIGURE 4.4A – Pattern of Errors Indicating Randomness

Error

Residual Plots

FIGURE 4.4B – Nonconstant error variance

Error

Residual Plots

FIGURE 4.4C – Errors Indicate Relationship is not Linear

Error

Estimating the Variance

• Errors are assumed to have a constant

variance ( 2), usually unknown

– Estimated using the mean squared error (MSE),

s2

SSE

s 2 = MSE =

n - k -1

where

n = number of observations in the sample

k = number of independent variables

Estimating the Variance

• For Triple A Construction

SSE 6.8750 6.8750

s = MSE =

2

= = = 1.7188

n - k -1 6-1-1 4

– The standard error of the estimate or the

standard deviation of the regression

Testing the Model for Significance

get good values for MSE and r2 even if there

is no relationship between the variables

– Testing the model for significance helps determine

if the values are meaningful

– Performing a statistical hypothesis test

Testing the Model for Significance

Y = b0 + b1 X + e

relationship between X and Y

– The alternate hypothesis is that there is a linear

relationship (1 ≠ 0)

– If the null hypothesis can be rejected, we have

proven there is a relationship

– We use the F statistic

Testing the Model for Significance

SSR

MSR =

k

where

k = number of independent variables in the model

• The F statistic is

MSR

F=

MSE

Describes an F distribution with:

degrees of freedom for the numerator = df1 = k

degrees of freedom for the denominator = df2 = n – k – 1

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 35

Testing the Model for Significance

and the F statistic would be large – model is

useful

• If the F statistic is large, the significance level

(p-value) will be low, – unlikely would have

occurred by chance

• When the F value is large, we can reject the

null hypothesis and accept that there is a

linear relationship between X and Y and the

values of the MSE and r2 are meaningful

Steps in a Hypothesis Test

1. Specify null and alternative hypotheses

H 0 : b1 = 0

H1 : b1 ¹ 0

Common values are 0.01 and 0.05.

3. Calculate the value of the test statistic

MSR

F=

MSE

Steps in a Hypothesis Test

4. Make a decision using one of the following

methods

a) Reject the null hypothesis if the test statistic is greater

than the F value from the table in Appendix D. Otherwise,

do not reject the null hypothesis:

Reject if Fcalculated > Fa,df1,df2

df1 = k

df2 = n - k -1

or p-value, is less than the level of significance ().

Otherwise, do not reject the null hypothesis:

p-value = P(F > calculated test statistic)

Reject if p-value < a

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 38

Triple A Construction

Step 1

H0: 1 = 0 (no linear relationship between X and Y)

H1: 1 ≠ 0 (linear relationship exists between X and Y)

Step 2

Select = 0.05

Step 3

– Calculate the value of the test statistic

SSR 15.6250

MSR = = = 15.6250

k 1

MSR 15.6250

F= = = 9.09

MSE 1.7188

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 39

Triple A Construction

• Step 4

– Reject the null hypothesis if the test statistic is

greater than the F value in Appendix D

df1 = k = 1

df2 = n – k – 1 = 6 – 1 – 1 = 4

significance and with degrees of freedom 1 and

4 is found in Appendix D.

F0.05,1,4 = 7.71

Fcalculated = 9.09

Reject H0 because 9.09 > 7.71

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 40

Triple A Construction

FIGURE 4.5

– We can conclude there is a

statistically significant

relationship between X and Y

– The r2 value of 0.69 means

about 69% of the variability in

sales (Y) is explained by

local payroll (X)

0.05

F = 7.71 9.09

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table

• With software models, an ANOVA table is

typically created that shows the observed

significance level (p-value) for the calculated

F value

– This can be compared to the level of significance

() to make a decision

TABLE 4.4

DF SS MS F SIGNIFICANCE

Regression k SSR MSR = SSR/k MSR/MSE P(F > MSR/MSE)

SSE/(n - k - 1)

Total n-1 SST

ANOVA for Triple A Construction

PROGRAM 4.1C – Excel Output for Triple A Construction

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.1A – Accessing the Regression Option in Excel

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.1B – Data Input

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.1C – Excel Output

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.2A – Using Excel QM

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.2B – Initializing the Spreadsheet

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.2C – Input and Results

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.3A – QM for Windows Regression Option in Forecasting Module

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.3B – QM for Windows Screen to Initialize the Problem

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.3C – Data Input

Using Software

PROGRAM 4.3D – QM for Windows Output

Multiple Regression Analysis

• Extensions to the simple linear model

• Models with more than one independent

variable

Y = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + … + kXk + e

where

Y= dependent variable (response variable)

Xi = ith independent variable (predictor or explanatory variable)

0 = intercept (value of Y when all Xi = 0)

i = coefficient of the ith independent variable

k= number of independent variables

e= random error

Multiple Regression Analysis

• To estimate these values, a sample is taken

the following equation developed

Ŷ = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X 2 +... + bk X k

Where

Yˆ = predicted value of Y

b0 = sample intercept (an estimate of 0)

bi = sample coefficient of the ith variable (an estimate of i)

Jenny Wilson Realty

• Develop a model to determine the suggested

listing price for houses based on the size and

age of the house

Ŷ = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X 2

where

Yˆ = predicted value of dependent variable (selling

price)

b0 = Y intercept

X1 and X2 = value of the two independent variables (square

footage and age) respectively

b1 and b2 = slopes for X1 and X2 respectively

– Selects a sample of houses that have sold

recently and records the data

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 56

Jenny Wilson Real Estate Data

TABLE 4.5

SELLING SQUARE

AGE CONDITION

PRICE ($) FOOTAGE

95,000 1,926 30 Good

119,000 2,069 40 Excellent

124,800 1,720 30 Excellent

135,000 1,396 15 Good

142,000 1,706 32 Mint

145,000 1,847 38 Mint

159,000 1,950 27 Mint

165,000 2,323 30 Excellent

182,000 2,285 26 Mint

183,000 3,752 35 Good

200,000 2,300 18 Good

211,000 2,525 17 Good

215,000 3,800 40 Excellent

219,000 1,740 12 Mint

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 57

Jenny Wilson Realty

PROGRAM 4.2A – Input Screen for the Jenny Wilson Realty Multiple Regression Example

Jenny Wilson Realty

Program 4.2B – Excel Output

Yˆ = b0 + b1 X 1 + b2 X 2

= 146,630.89 + 43.82X 1 - 2898.69X 2

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 59

Evaluating Multiple

Regression Models

• Similar to simple linear regression models

• The p-value for the F test and r2 interpreted

the same

• The hypothesis is different because there is

more than one independent variable

• The F test is investigating whether all the

coefficients are equal to 0 at the same time

Evaluating Multiple

Regression Models

• To determine which independent variables are

significant, tests are performed for each

variable

H 0 : b1 = 0

H1 : b1 ¹ 0

value is lower than the level of significance

(), the null hypothesis is rejected

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 61

Jenny Wilson Realty

• Full model is statistically significant

– Useful in predicting selling price

p-value for F test = 0.002 r2 = 0.6719

– For X1 (square footage) H1 : b1 ¹ 0

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0013 null hypothesis is rejected

– For X1 (age)

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0039 null hypothesis is rejected

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 62

Jenny Wilson Both

Realty

square footage

and age are helpful

in predicting the

• Full model is statistically significant

selling price

– Useful in predicting selling price

p-value for F test = 0.002 r2 = 0.6719

– For X1 – square footage H1 : b1 ¹ 0

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0013 null hypothesis is rejected

– For X1 – age

For = 0.05, p-value = 0.0039 null hypothesis is rejected

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 63

Binary or Dummy Variables

• Binary (or dummy or indicator) variables are

special variables created for qualitative data

• A dummy variable is assigned a value of 1 if a

particular condition is met and a value of 0

otherwise

• The number of dummy variables must equal

one less than the number of categories of the

qualitative variable

Jenny Wilson Realty

• A better model can be developed if

information about the condition of the property

is included

X3 = 1 if house is in excellent condition

= 0 otherwise

X4 = 1 if house is in mint condition

= 0 otherwise

• Two dummy variables are used to describe

the three categories of condition

• No variable is needed for “good” condition

since if both X3 and X4 = 0, the house must be

in good condition

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 65

Jenny Wilson Realty

PROGRAM 4.5A – Excel Input Screen with Dummy Variables

Jenny Wilson Realty

PROGRAM 4.5B – Excel Output with Dummy Variables

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 67

Jenny Wilson Realty

PROGRAM 4.5B – Excel Output with Dummy Variables

Coefficient of

determination,

r2 = 0.898

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 68

Model Building

• The best model is a statistically significant

model with a high r2 and few variables

• As more variables are added to the model,

the r2 value increases

• For this reason, the adjusted r2 value is often

used to determine the usefulness of an

additional variable

• The adjusted r2 takes into account the

number of independent variables in the model

Model Building

• The formula for r2

SSR SSE

r2 = = 1-

SST SST

• The formula for adjusted r2

SSE / (n - k -1)

Adjusted r = 1- 2

SST / (n -1)

• As the number of variables increases, the

adjusted r2 gets smaller unless the increase

due to the new variable is large enough to

offset the change in k

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 70

Model Building

• The formula for r2In general, if a new variable

increases the adjusted r2, it should

SSR SSE

r 2 = probably

= 1- be included in the model

SST SST

• The formula for adjusted r2

SSE / (n - k -1)

Adjusted r = 1- 2

SST / (n -1)

• As the number of variables increases, the

adjusted r2 gets smaller unless the increase

due to the new variable is large enough to

offset the change in k

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 71

Model Building

• Stepwise regression systematically adds or

deletes independent variables

• A forward stepwise procedure puts the most

significant variable in first, adds the next

variable that will improve the model the most

• Backward stepwise regression begins with all

the independent variables and deletes the

least helpful

Model Building

• In some cases variables contain duplicate

information

• When two independent variables are

correlated, they are said to be collinear

• When more than two independent variables

are correlated, multicollinearity exists

• When multicollinearity is present, hypothesis

tests for the individual coefficients are not

valid but the model may still be useful

Nonlinear Regression

• In some situations, variables are not linear

• Transformations may be used to turn a

nonlinear model into a linear model

* * * *

*

** * * ** *

*

*** * ** *

Linear relationship Nonlinear relationship

Colonel Motors

• Use regression analysis to improve fuel

efficiency

– Study the impact of weight on miles per gallon (MPG)

TABLE 4.6

WEIGHT WEIGHT

MPG (1,000 LBS.) MPG (1,000 LBS.)

12 4.58 20 3.18

13 4.66 23 2.68

15 4.02 24 2.65

18 2.53 33 1.70

19 3.09 36 1.95

19 3.11 42 1.92

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 75

Colonel Motors

FIGURE 4.6A – Linear Model for MPG Data

45 –

40 –

35 –

30 –

25 –

MPG

20 –

15 –

10 –

5–

0 |– | | | | |

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Weight (1,000 lb.)

Colonel Motors

Useful model

PROGRAM 4.6 – Excel Output for Linear Regression Model with MPG Data

Small F test for significance

Good r2 value

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 77

Colonel Motors

FIGURE 4.6B – Nonlinear Model for MPG Data

45 –

40 –

35 –

30 –

25 –

MPG

20 –

15 –

10 –

5–

0 |– | | | | |

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Weight (1,000 lb.)

Colonel Motors

• The nonlinear model is a quadratic model

• The easiest approach – develop a new variable

X 2 = (weight)2

• New model

Ŷ = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X 2

Colonel Motors

Improved model

PROGRAM 4.7 – Excel Output for Nonlinear Regression Model with MPG Data

Small F test for significance

Adjusted r2 and r2 both increased

Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 – 80

Cautions and Pitfalls

• If the assumptions are not met, the statistical

test may not be valid

• Correlation does not necessarily mean

causation

• Multicollinearity makes interpreting

coefficients problematic, but the model may

still be good

• Using a regression model beyond the range

of X is questionable, as the relationship may

not hold outside the sample data

Cautions and Pitfalls

• A t-test for the intercept (b0) may be ignored

as this point is often outside the range of the

model

• A linear relationship may not be the best

relationship, even if the F test returns an

acceptable value

• A nonlinear relationship can exist even if a

linear relationship does not

• Even though a relationship is statistically

significant it may not have any practical value

Copyright

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in

any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,

photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior

written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United

States of America.

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