Modeling and Analysis of Flow Behavior

in Multiwell Bounded Reservoirs

Taufan Marhaendrajana
Ph.D. Candidate
Texas A&M University

SPE International Paper Contest

5 October 1999
10 Second Summary

 Developed a new method to estimate

the original oil/gas-in-place by analyzing
production data from only one well.
 This method can also be used to esti-
mate the permeability-thickness product
in the drainage area for a particular well.
 These developments are based on an
analytical solution for a multiwell model.
Why is this work important?

 Multiwell Solution
 Accurate
 Rigorous and robust
 Very fast solution (can be run on a PC)

 Multiwell Analysis Approach

 Can be based on single-well decline type curve
 "Total Material Balance Time"  system volume
 Easy-to-apply

 Validation
 Homogeneous reservoir case
 Heterogeneous reservoir case
 Field Cases (Arun Gas Field, Indonesia)
 Outline

 Introduction
 Objectives
 Physical Model and Analytical Solution
 Decline Type Curve Analysis
 Field Application (Arun Field, Indonesia)
 Conclusions
 Recommendations for Extensions of This Work
 Introduction

Production ofData
Current Multiwell
Modeling Analysis?
Models
Individual
 Single
Well Performance?
Well
Rodriguez
Valko et Model
al and
(1998)
Cinco-Ley (1993)
 (Well-by-well
et alanalysis)
– Pseudosteady-state
Camacho (1996) only

– Does
Is a single
Constant well model
not provide
pressure satis-
a only
mechanism
factory?
– for analyzing production
Pseudosteady-state only data
– Does not provide a mechanism
for analyzing production data
Bounded Reservoir
with Multiple Wells
Objectives

1. To Develop an Analytical Solution for a

Single Well or Multiple Wells in a Multiwell
Reservoir System
 Correctly models all flow regimes.
 Completely general formulation (constant rate,
constant pressure, or variable-rate/pressure).
2. To Develop a Method for the Analysis of
Production Data from a Multiwell System
 Estimate the original oil/gas-in-place.
 Estimate the local flow capacity (permeability-
thickness product).
Physical Model

(0,0,0) xe
ye

ze

Assumptions:
 Homogeneous, Closed Reservoir
 Slightly Compressible Fluid
 Fully Penetrating Wells
Well Pressure Solution (Convolution Form)

pD([xwD,k + ],[y wD,k + ],tDA) =

t DA
n well dp D,cr(t DA –  )

i=1
q D,i()
d
d + q D,k(t DA) s k
k,i
0

Constant Rate Solution  Accuracy

For Single Well in A Closed  Speed
Rectangular Reservoir  Formulation

i = well counter
k = well index (well location where pressure is evaluated)
 Numerical Simulation Model (Base Case)

16000
[3,1] [3,2] [3,3]
Initial Pressure :5,000 psi
14000 Permeability :5 md
12000
Porosity :0.2
Y-Direction, ft

10000 [2,1] [2,2] [2,3] Total Comp. :3x10-6 1/psia

8000
Thickness :500 ft
6000

4000 [1,1] [1,2] [1,3]

Area :16,8602 ft2
2000
No. of Wells :Nine
0 Oil Viscosity :0.8 cp
10000

12000

14000

16000
2000

4000

6000

8000
0

FVF :1.184 RB/STB

X-Direction, ft OOIP :4,278 MMSTB
 5000 5000 5000

Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure, psi 4000

Well [1,1] 4000
Well [1,2] 4000
Well [1,3]
3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
5000 5000 5000

4000
Well [2,1] 4000
Well [2,2] 4000
Well [2,3]
3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
5000 5000 5000

4000
Well [3,1] 4000
Well [3,2] 4000
Well [3,3]
3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000

Time, Days
 4 4
10 10 4
10
Well [1,1] Well [1,2] Well [1,3]

Legend: Legend: Legend:

Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation
Analytical Solution Analytical Solution Analytical Solution
3 3
10 10 3
10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Oil Rate, STB/D

4 4 4
10 10 10

Well [2,1] Well [2,2] Well [2,3]

Legend: Legend: Legend:

Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation
Analytical Solution Analytical Solution Analytical Solution
3 3 3
10 10 10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
4 4 4
10 10 10

Well [3,1] Well [3,2] Well [3,3]

3
10

Legend: Legend: Legend:

Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation Numerical Simulation
Analytical Solution Analytical Solution Analytical Solution
3 2 3
10 10 10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000

Time, Days
 Analytical Solution Matches
Numerical Solution

Initial pwf
Oil Rate, STB/D

Variable pwf
Final pwf

Well [1,2]

Time, Days
Decline Type Curve Analysis

 Formulation for Multiwell Decline Type

Curve Analysis
 Fetkovich/McCray Decline Type Curve
 Decline Type Curve Analysis Procedure
 Application to Simulated Performance Data
 Formulation for Multiwell Analysis
using Decline Type Curves

q k(t) 1
=
(p i – p wf ) t n well
1 1

Nc t q k(t) 0 i = 1
q i(t)dt + c(t)

Production Data
(Pressure & Rate) c(t) c(t)
includes:
becomes
Total Material
-Transient
constant flow
at long
Balance Time
-Reservoirtimes
shape
-Well location
Np,field
vs ttot = q
well
Original-Oil-in-Place
 Type Curve Construction
(Multiwell System)

141.2B q
 qDde = p ln (r eD/  D ) – 0.5
kh
k t tot 2
 t Dde,b ar = 0.00633
 c tA
ln (r eD/  D ) – 0.5

D= 1 D= 9 D= 25

"Total Material Balance Time" Generalizes
The Fetkovich/McCray Type Curve
Dimensionless Rate Functions

1
) , qDdeid
10
12 7 4
7 4
qDde, qDdei

12
28 18
Ddei, qDdeid

80 48
800 160
0
10 1x104
, qFunctions,

80 48 28 18 12 7 4 qDdei
160

800
(qDdeRate

-1
10
Dimensionless

r eD/  D =1x104 qDdeid qDde

-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde,bar
Decline Type Curve Analysis Procedure

Log-log Plot

Model Data
(Dimensionless qwell/pwell
Variables) tbar,tot=Np,field/qwell

Match

 Original Oil/Gas-In-Place (N or G)
 Flow Capacity (kh)
 All Curves Overlay Each Other
(Homogeneous Reservoir Example)
STB/D/psi

1
10
p) id,,STB/D/psi

(q/ p)i
0
(q/p)id is affected by (q/ p)
10
severe rate changes
i, (q/ p)id

(unlikely in practice)
(q/ p)id
(q/
(q/i,p)

-1
10
p)

Legend:
 p,
q/p, q/(q/

Well [1,1]; Well [2,1]; Well [3,1]

Well [1,2]; Well [2,2]; Well [3,2]
Well [1,3]; Well [2,3]; Well [3,3]
-2
10
0 1 2 3 4 5
10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Material Balance Time, tbar,e, Days
tbar,tot = Np,field/qwell, Days
 Multiwell Model Is More Accurate
Than Single Well Model
Dimensionless Rate Functions

1
Dimensionless Rate Functions, qDde, qDdei, qDdeid

10
12 7 4
7 4
Total material balance
12 functions align with
(qDde, qDdei, qDdeid)

28 18
80 48 correct solution
0
800 160
10 1x104
80 48 28 18 12 7 4
160

800
-1
10

eD// 
rreD D =1x104

-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde
Dimensionless Material Balance Time, tDd,bar
or
Dimensionless
Dimensionless Total
Total Material
Material Balance
Balance Time,
Time, ttDde,bar
Dde,bar
 Locally Homogeneous Reservoir Example

16000 Issues:
14000
 Can we analyze
[ 20 mD ]
12000 multiwell performance?
Y-Direction, ft

10000  Accuracy of results?

8000  In-place volume
6000
[ 15 mD ]  kh-product
 Uniqueness of the
4000
analysis?
2000
[ 25 mD ] [ 5 mD ] [ 10 mD ]
0
10000

12000

14000

16000
2000

4000

6000

8000
0

0 5 10 15 20 25
X-Direction, ft Permeability, mD
 5000 5000 5000

Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure, psi 4000 Well [1,1] 4000 Well [1,2] 4000 Well [1,3]
3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

5000 5000 5000

4000 Well [2,1] 4000 Well [2,2] 4000 Well [2,3]

3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

5000 5000 5000

4000 Well [3,1] 4000 Well [3,2] 4000 Well [3,3]

3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Time, Days
 5 5 5
10 10 10

4
Well [1,1] 4
Well [1,2] 4
Well [1,3]
10 10 10

3 3 3
10 10 10

2 2 2
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Oil Rate, STB/D

5 5 5
10 10 10

Well [2,1] Well [2,2] Well [2,3]

4 4 4
10 10 10

3 3 3
10 10 10

2 2 2
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

5 5 5
10 10 10

Well [3,1] Well [3,2] Well [3,3]

4 4 4
10 10 10

3 3 3
10 10 10

2 2 2
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Time, Days
 All Curves Converge to A Single
Material Balance Trend

2
10

Decreasing Permeability
Material Balance
Trend
p, p,STB/D/psi
STB/D/psi

1
10

0
q/q/

10
Legend:
Well [1,1]; Well [2,1]; Well [3,1]
Well [1,2]; Well [2,2]; Well [3,2]
Well [1,3]; Well [2,3]; Well [3,3]
-1
10
0 1 2 3 4 5
10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Material Balance Time, tbar,e, Days
tbar,tot = Np,field/qwell, Days
Locally Homogeneous Reservoir Example

1
qDde, q)Ddei, qDdeid

10
Dimensionless Rate Functions

12 7 4
7 4 Well [1,1]; Well [2,1]; Well [3,1]
12 Well [1,2]; Well [2,2]; Well [3,2]
28 18 Well [1,3]; Well [2,3]; Well [3,3]
, qDdeid

80 48
800 160
0
10 1x104
Functions,

80 48 28 18 12 7 4
160
, qDdei

800
(qDdeRate

-1
10
Dimensionless

 DD =1x104
eD// 
rreD

-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde,bar
 16000 Well k, calc. k, input
14000
[3,1] [3,2] [3,3] (md) (md)
[ 20 mD ] [1,1] 22.7 25
12000
Y-Direction, ft

10000 [1,2] 5.15 5.0

[2,1] [2,2] [2,3]
8000 [1,3] 10.1 10
[ 15 mD ]
6000 [2,1] 5.15 5.0
4000 [1,1] [1,2] [1,3] [2,2] 9.77 10
2000 [2,3] 13.8 15
[ 25 mD ] [ 5 mD ] [ 10 mD ]
0 [3,1] 9.94 10
10000

12000

14000

16000
2000

4000

6000

8000
0

[3,2] 14.2 15
X-Direction, ft [3,3] 18.9 20

OOIP (Input) 4,278 MMSTB

0 5 10 15 20 25
Permeability, mD OOIP (Calc.) 4,278 MMSTB
Field Application

 Description/Layout of Arun Gas Field

 Analysis of Production Data (13 Wells)
 Comparison with Previous Results
 Arun Field Field Description
 Located in Northern part of
Sumatra, Indonesia
 Retrograde gas reservoir
 One of the largest gas fields in
the world
 Arun Field has 111 wells:
 79 producers
 11 injectors
 4 observation wells
 17 wells have been abandoned

Arun Well A-015

N Arun Well A-016
Well Performance Data: Arun Well A-015
Mscf/D Mscf/D

300000 6000

Wellhead
Wellhead Pressure
Pressure

Wellhead
Rate,

250000 4000

Wellhead Pressure,
Stream) Rate,

200000 2000
Stream)

Pressure,
150000 0
Well

Gas
Gas Rate
Rate
Well

100000 -2000
Gas (Total

psi
Gas (Total

psi
50000 -4000

0 -6000
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Time, Days
Time, Days

, Gas Rate and Wellhead Pressure for Well A-015

, Gas Rate and Wellhead Pressure for Well A-016
 Type Curve Match: Arun Well A-015
(Excellent Match of Data/Type Curve)

1
qDde, q)Ddei, qDdeid

10
Dimensionless Rate Functions

12 7 4 Legend: C-III-02 (Arun A-015)

7 4
12 q/pp
28 18 (q/pp)i
, qDdeid

80 48 (q/pp)id
800 160
0
10 1x104
Functions,

80 48 28 18 12 7 4
160
, qDdei

800
(qDdeRate

-1
10
Dimensionless

Transition
eD// D =1x10
rreD 4
Boundary
Transient Flow Dominated
Flow
-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde,bar
Well Performance Data: Arun Well A-016
Mscf/D Mscf/D

300000 6000

Wellhead
Wellhead Pressure
Pressure

Wellhead
Rate,

250000 4000

Wellhead Pressure,
Stream) Rate,

200000 2000
Stream)

Pressure,
150000 0
Well

Gas
Gas Rate
Rate
Well

100000 -2000
Gas (Total

psi
Gas (Total

psi
50000 -4000

0 -6000
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Time, Days
Time, Days

, Gas Rate and Wellhead Pressure for Well A-015

, Gas Rate and Wellhead Pressure for Well A-016
 Type Curve Match: Arun Well A-016
(Excellent Match of Data/Type Curve)

1
qDdei, qDdeid

10
Dimensionless Rate Functions

12 7 4 Legend: C-III-04 (Arun A-016)

7 4
12 q/pp
28 18 (q/pp)i
qDde, )

80 48
, qDdeid

800 160 (q/pp)id

0
10 1x104
Functions,

80 48 28 18 12 7 4
160
qDdei

800
(qDde,Rate

-1
10
Dimensionless

Transition
eD// D =1x10
rreD 4
Boundary
Transient Flow Dominated
Flow
-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde,bar
 Results of Multiwell Analysis at Arun Field

Reservoir OGIP (TCF)

Cumulative
Well Flow Capacity JPT (June 1983) Production
(md-ft) This Study Numerical Sim. (Nov. 1998)

Arun A-015 912

19.8 17.1 16.1
Arun A-016 996

?
Production History: (As of November 1998)
 Cumulative gas production (gross) = 21.3 TCF
Difference
 Cumulative gas reinjected = 5.2 TCF
 Net cumulative gas production = 21.3-5.2 = 16.1 TCF
 Current monthly gas production = 50 BCF (0.6 TCF/yr)
 All Cases Converge to A Single
Material Balance Trend (Arun Field Data)
3
10
Function, q/pp, Mscf/D/psi

Material BalanceTrend
for Arun Gas Field
2
10 (OGIP=19.8 TCF)
q/ p, STB/D/psi

1
10
Well Rate/Pressure-Drop

0 Legend: Arun Gas Field

10
C-I-02 (A-036) C-III-02 (A-015)


C-I-08 (A-027) C-III-03 (A-034)

C-I-09 (A-044) C-III-04 (A-016)
-1 C-II-01 (A-037) C-III-06 (A-017)
10 C-II-04 (A-024) C-III-09 (A-028)
C-II-09 (A-021) C-III-05 (A-035)
C-II-16 (A-029)
-2
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Material Balance Time, tbar,tot=Gp,field/qg,well, Days
tbar,tot = Gp,field/qwell, Days
 Type Curve Match: Arun Field--13 Wells
(Excellent Match of Data/Type Curve)
1
10 7
Dimensionless Rate Functions

7
) , qDdeid

18
qDde, qDdei

48
Ddei, qDdeid

4160
0 1x10
10
, qFunctions,

48 18 7
160
Rate

4
r eD/ DD) = 1x10
reD/sqrt(
(qDde

-1
10
Dimensionless

C-I-02 (A-036) C-II-09 (A-021) C-III-04 (A-016)

C-I-08 (A-027) C-II-16 (A-029) C-III-06 (A-017)
C-I-09 (A-044) C-III-02 (A-015) C-III-09 (A-028)
C-II-01 (A-037) C-III-03 (A-034) C-III-05 (A-035)
C-II-04 (A-024)
-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde,bar
Conclusions

1. Developed a Real Space Analytical Solution

for a Closed Rectangular Reservoir with
One or More Wells
– Can serve as analytical reservoir simulator.
– Completely general formulation (constant rate,
constant pressure, or variable-rate/pressure).
Conclusions
2. This Solution Provides a Mechanism for the
Decline Type Curve Analysis in a Multiwell
Reservoir System
 Can
Conserves
Rigorous
The key
be
useused
for
pressure-rate
and
volume
the
for
accurate
decline
well
ofperformance
the
type
performance
approach
entire
curvesystem.
monitoring.
for
analysis
data
estima-
for
in
ting
only
a multiwell
one
original
well
system
oil/gas-in-place
to estimate
is to use
original
intotal
the
oil/gas-in-
material
overall
reservoir
place.
balance time.
system and formation permeability
in the local reservoir system.
Conclusions

3. We Have Successfully Demonstrated the

Application of the New Method to Analyze
Production Data From Arun Gas Field
Recommendations for Extensions of This Work

To extend this work, we recommend:

 Including various reservoir outer boundary

conditions other than the closed (no-flow)
outer boundary.
 Development and application of a method-
ology to estimate the near-well skin factor.
Modeling and Analysis of Flow Behavior
in Multiwell Bounded Reservoirs

Taufan Marhaendrajana
Ph.D. Candidate
Texas A&M University

SPE International Paper Contest

5 October 1999
 Heterogeneous Reservoir Example

16000 Issues:
14000  Effect of a randomly
12000 heterogeneous
Y-Direction, ft

10000
medium?
 Accuracy of results?
8000
 In-place volume
6000
 kh-product
4000  Uniqueness/meaning
2000 of the analysis?
0
10000

12000

14000

16000
2000

4000

6000

8000
0

0 2 4 6 8 10
X-Direction, ft Permeability, mD
 5000 5000 5000

Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure, psi 4000 Well [1,1] 4000 Well [1,2] 4000 Well [1,3]
3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

5000 5000 5000

4000 Well [2,1] 4000 Well [2,2] 4000 Well [2,3]

3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

5000 5000 5000

4000 Well [3,1] 4000 Well [3,2] 4000 Well [3,3]

3000 3000 3000

2000 2000 2000

1000 1000 1000

0 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Time, Days
 4 4 4
10 10 10

Well [1,1] Well [1,2] Well [1,3]

3
10

3 2 3
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Oil Rate, STB/D

4 4 4
10 10 10

Well [2,1] Well [2,2] Well [2,3]

3 3
10 10

3 2 2
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

4 4 4
10 10 10

Well [3,1] Well [3,2] Well [3,3]

3 3
10 10

2 2 3
10 10 10
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Time, Days
 All Curves Converge to a Single
Material Balance Trend

1
10
(q/ p)id, STB/D/psi

Material Balance
p)i,STB/D/psi

Trend
0
10

Decreasing Permeability
(q/p,

-1
10 Legend:
q/ p, q/

Well [1,1]; Well [2,1]; Well [3,1]

Well [1,2]; Well [2,2]; Well [3,2]
Well [1,3]; Well [2,3]; Well [3,3]
-2
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Total Material Balance Time, tbar,e, Days
tbar,e = Np,field/q, Days
 Heterogeneous Reservoir Example

1
qDde,)qDdei, qDdeid

10
Dimensionless Rate Functions

12 7 4
Well [1,1]; Well [2,1]; Well [3,1]
7 4
12 Well [1,2]; Well [2,2]; Well [3,2]
28 18 Well [1,3]; Well [2,3]; Well [3,3]
80 48
, qDdeid

800 160
0
10 1x104
Functions,

80 48 28 18 12 7 4
160
qDdei

800
(qDde,Rate

-1
10
Dimensionless

eD// 
rreD D =1x104

-2
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
10 10 10 10 10 10
Dimensionless Time, tDde
Dimensionless Total Material Balance Time, tDde
 Calculated Results
(Randomly Heterogeneous Reservoir)

Well k OOIP
(md) (MMSTB)
[1,1] 4.04 4,278
[1,2] 3.27 4,278
[1,3] 4.44 4,278
[2,1] 4.30 4,278
[2,2] 2.52 4,278
[2,3] 3.38 4,278
[3,1] 3.93 4,278
[3,2] 3.99 4,278
[3,3] 3.64 4,278
 Observations:
 Individual well performance
16000 appears to be "homogeneous"
14000  Computed in-place volume is
3.73 essentially exact
12000
 Computes permeability
Y-Direction, ft

10000 represents harmonic average

8000
in well drainage area

6000
4.10
4000 Results:
2000 Well k, calc. k, input
0 (md) (md)
10000

12000

14000

16000
2000

4000

6000

8000
0

[1,1] 4.04 4.10

X-Direction, ft [3,3] 3.64 3.73
OOIP (Input) 4,278 MMSTB
0 2 4 6 8 10
Permeability, mD OOIP (Calc.) 4,278 MMSTB
 Well Pressure Solution (Continued)

New Single-Well Solution: (Constant Rate)

 
pD(xD,y D,tDA) = 1   E a
2 m = –  n = –  1 mn
+ E1 b mn + E1 cmn + E1 dmn

+ xwD + 2nxeD)2 + (yD –

(xD – + ywD
wD + 2my eD
eD)
22
b
a
d
cmn =
4tDA

Characteristics:
 Exact
 Very fast (2-3 seconds/100 points)
Well Pressure Solution

pD([xwD,k + ],[y wD,k + ],tDA,n) =

Nwell
+  q [p
i=1
Di,0 Dcr(tDA,n)] ki

n – 1 Nwell
+   (q Di,m – qDi,m – 1) [pD,cr(tDA,n – tDA,m – 1)] ki
m=2 i=1
Nwell
– q
i=1
Di,n – 1 [pD,cr(tDA,n – tDA,n – 1)] ki

Nwell
+ q
i=1
Di,n [pD,cr(tDA,n – tDA,n – 1)] ki + qDk(tDA,n) sk