Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CHAPTER 9
Stocks and Their Valuation
Represents ownership.
Ownership implies control.
Stockholders elect directors.
Directors elect management.
Management’s goal: Maximize the
stock price.
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9-3
Social/Ethical Question
100%
75%
50%
25%
D1 D2 D3 D
P 0 . . . .
1 k 1 k
s
1
s
2
1 k
s
3
1 k
s
D1 = D0(1 + g)1
D2 = D0(1 + g)2
Dt = Dt(1 + g)t
If g is constant, then:
^ D0(1 + g) D1
P0 = = .
ks – g ks – g
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9 - 10
$
D t D0 1 g
t
Dt
PVD t
1 k
0.25 t
P0 PVD t If g > k, P0 !
0 Years (t)
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9 - 11
D1
P̂0 = requires ks > g.
ks – g
0 g = 6% 1 2 3
D1 $2.12
Dividend yld = = = 7.0%.
P0 $30.29
^
P1 – P0 $32.10 – $30.29
Cap gains yld = =
P0 $30.29
= 6.0%.
Total return = 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%.
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9 - 17
D D
P0 1
to k s 1
g.
-g
ks – P0
^
Then, ks = $2.12/$30.29 + 0.06
= 0.07 + 0.06 = 13%.
^ PMT $2.00
P0 = = = $15.38.
k 0.13
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9 - 19
$2.60
Div. yield0 = = 4.81%.
$54.11
0 1 2 3 4
ks=13%
...
g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6%
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12
1.77
1.57
1.39 2.12
20.99
P 30.29.
3
25.72 0.07
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9 - 24
D1 $2.00
t = 0: = = 7.78%.
P0 $25.72
CGY = 13% – 7.78% = 5.22%.
t = 3: Now have constant growth
with g = capital gains yield = 6% and
D/P = 7%.
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9 - 25
0 = D 1 D0
1 g
+
P =
-g
ks – ks –-g
$2.00(0.94) $1.88
= = = $9.89.
0.13 – (-0.06) 0.19
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9 - 26
(More...)
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9 - 30
^
ks = D1/P0 + g = ks = kRF + (kM – kRF)b.
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9 - 35
^
ks = D1/P0 + g = ks = kRF + (kM – kRF)b.
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9 - 36
^ D1
If ks = + g > ks, then
P0
P0 is “too low” (a bargain).
^ D1
P0 = .
ki – g
1. ki could change:
ki = kRF + (kM – kRF )bi.
kRF = k* + IP.
1. Weak-form EMH:
Can’t profit by looking at past
trends. A recent decline is no
reason to think stocks will go up
(or down) in the future.
Evidence supports weak-form
EMH, but “technical analysis” is
still used.
2. Semistrong-form EMH:
All publicly available
information is reflected in
stock prices, so doesn’t pay to
pore over annual reports
looking for undervalued
stocks. Largely true, but
superior analysts can still
profit by finding and using new
information.
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9 - 41
3. Strong-form EMH:
All information, even inside
information, is embedded in
stock prices. Not true--insiders
can gain by trading on the basis
of insider information, but that’s
illegal.
Preferred Stock
Hybrid security.
Similar to bonds in that preferred
stockholders receive a fixed dividend
that must be paid before dividends can
be paid on common stock.
However, unlike interest payments on
bonds, companies can omit dividend
payments on preferred stock without
fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.
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9 - 44
$5
Vp $50 .
kp
$5
k̂ p 0.10 10 .0%.
$50