OVER VIEW

OF
INDIAN POWER SECTOR

27th January, 2010

 DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA
FORECAST
(AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)

2500 350
298
300
2000
218 1915 250
1500 200
GW

153
BU

1392
1000 150
100
969
100
500 690
50

0 0
2006-0710th 2011-1211th 2016-1712th 13th Plan
Plan End (actual) Plan End plan End

Energy Requirement (BU) Peak Load (GW)

2
INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON 31-12-2009
(TYPE_WISE)

Fossil fuel based

capacity=99,862 MW
(64%)

Total Installed Capacity = 1,56,092 MW

 GENERATION - 2008-09 (BU)

Fossil fuel based

Generation=590 BU
(79%)

Total Generation = 746 BU * Estimated

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period
(PEAK)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan
160000
152746
150000
140947
140000
142765
130652
130000
MW

126899
120000
108866 109809
110000
108550
100000
90793 96685
90000
2007- 2008- 2009- 10 2010- 11 2011- 12
08( Ac tual) 09( Ac tual)
Year
Peak Availability Peak Load

Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

 Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period
(ENERGY)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan

1100000

968659
1000000

906316
948835
900000
848390

774324 829600
800000

739345 689021
700000 714096
666007

600000
2007-08 2008- 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
(Actual) 09(Actual)
Year
Energy A vailibility Energy R equirement

Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11th PLAN
(With High Degree of Certainty)
Nucle ar, 3380,
5%
Gas /LNG, 6587, Hydro, 8237, 13%
11%
Lignite , 2280, 4%

Coal, 41890, 67%

7
Total: 62,374 MW
GENERATION CAPACITY
ADDITION DURING
12 & 13 PLANS
th th
 LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY
1. Promote Hydro Project Development
 Facilitate Statutory Clearances of Projects identified for 12th
Plan to ensure placement of orders for main packages in 11th
Plan
2. Promote Renewable Energy
 RPOs to be specified by SERCs
 Trading of Renewable Purchase Certificates
 Implementation of solar mission
Solar Mission – MoP finalizing strategies for development of
Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW through NVVNL by 2013.
- 200 MW roof top solar by 2013
- SERCs to specify RPOs in respect of solar energy, MoP to
make necessary modification in NEP/ Tariff Policy
3. Promoting New Gas based projects with a mix of
indigenous Gas and imported RLNG with pooled
pricing applicable to all the new and existing projects
At least 27,000 MW Gas based capacity needs to be developed
during 12th and 13th Plan.
 LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY
Contd……
4. Early notification of CEA regulation on construction of
power plants indicating mandatory minimum efficiency
levels
5. Retirement of Old and Inefficient Coal based Generating units
– 4000 MW each in 12th and 13th Plan.
– List of projects to be retired during 11th Plan has been
finalised and 1100 MW already retired.
6. Implementation of National Enhanced Efficiency Renovation
and Modernization Program.
– To incentivise States, 50% of generation capability of the
unit just before shut down for R&M may be compensated by
way of additional allocation from unallocated quota during
the normative period of shut down.
– Low interest rate financing for enhanced efficiency based
R&M.
 LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY
Contd……
7. Adoption of Clean Coal Technology
Target:12th Plan – At least 50% of Coal based capacity should be super critical
13th Plan – All coal based capacity should be super critical
Action:
(a)Creation of Indigenous manufacturing capacity for super critical
equipment
(b)Incentivising Indigenous Manufacturers to ensure transfer of Super
Critical Technology
(c)Bulk tendering for 11x660 MW Super Critical units with mandatory
indigenous manufacturing in progress. To initiate Bulk Tendering for 800
MW size units shortly after finalising orders for 660 MW.
(d)Bulk tendering for projects based on Ultra super critical technology
with mandatory indigenous manufacturing by 2011-12.
(e)MOEF to be advised not to clear any Coal based projects w.e.f. 01-04-
2012 on Sub-critical technology. No coal linkages for Sub-critical plants
for 13th Plan
(f)Propose zero custom duty and excise duty on Super Critical Plans
supplied by indigenous manufacturers.
 LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY
Contd……
8. Reduction of T&D losses to be accorded high priority
– Franchise model to be promoted.
– Implementation of R- APDRP to reduce technical and
commercial losses.
9. Implementation of BEE Program
 Implementation of ECBC in states
 DSM in municipal, agriculture and buildings
 Enforcement of energy intensity standards in Energy Intensive
Industry and trading of emission reduction certificates.
 CFL Bachat Lamp Yojna
 Agriculture (Ag DSM) Pump efficiency improvement
through ESCO.
 Labeling of Appliances
• Labeling of Inverters on priority
THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-12th Plan

BAU
MODERATE OPTIMISTIC
Hydro 8500 16360 21200
Nuclear 4800 4800 4800
Renewable (Excluding 15000 15000 15000
Solar)
Solar 0 2000 4000
Retirements of Old 0 4000 4000
inefficient Units
Gas 0 13000 25000
Coal 94300 69810 53410
Sub-Critical 68100 28010 21410
Super Critical 26200 41800 32000
12th Plan (Total) 107600 106470 106910
(Conventional)
THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-13th Plan
(All Figures in MW)
BAU MODERATE OPTIMISTIC

Hydro 8500 25000 33540

Nuclear 5000 8000 13000
Renewable Excluding Solar 15000 16500 16500
Solar 0 8000 16000
Retirements of old inefficient 0 4000 4000
units
Gas 0 14000 20000
Coal 60500 35200 22400
Sub-Critical 44500 0 0
Super Critical 16000 35200 22400
13th Plan (Total) 74000 82200 88940
(Conventional)
 Weighted Average Emissions Fuel- Wise
(tCO2/MWh) *
During 2007- With Latest
08 Technology
Coal 1.00 0.88 (Super Critical HR 2326)

Gas 0.46 0.34 (CCGT η - 53%)

0.25 (CCHP η - 70%)
Oil 0.71 0.71

DG Sets 0.61 0.61

Bio Mass Co2 Neutral Co2 Neutral

* Values calculated on gross generation

Emission Factor (kg/kwh of CO2)
 STUDY RESULTS

Based on EGEAS Program run for projected

load curves
– Gas based generation @ 70% PLF in all scenarios
– Renewables – Must run
– Coal based generation operated on merit order
Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual
Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual
 Anticipated Percentage Reduction of Emission Factor
(Kg/Kwh) for Power Sector w.r.t. year 2004-05

End of End of 11th End of End of 13th

10th Plan Plan (2011- 12th Plan Plan (2021-
(2006-07) 12) (2016-17) 22)
(Actual)
BAU 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.6

Moderate 11.2 15.6

Optimistic 15.7 20.3