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# The Outcome and the Event

In everyday life we come across many phenomena, the nature of which cannot
be predicted in advance or many experiments, whose outcomes may not be
known precisely. However we may know that the outcome has to be one of
several possibilities.
When a coin is tossed, we know that the outcome has to be either a head or a
tail; but we do not know the outcome of a particular throw in advance
Definition
a. An outcome is a single possible result of random experiment
b. An Event is any collection of outcomes
c. A simple Event is an event consisting of just one outcome
Let us denote by w the tipical outcome of un experiment E . w is called a
sampel point (titik sampel) . The totality of all outcome of E will be denote by
 (or S) and is called the sample space. A collection of outcome of E in which we
are interested will be called an event. Thus an event is a subset of 
PROBABILITY = PROBABILITAS = PELUANG = KEMUNGKINAN
EXPERIMENT = PERCOBAAN = EKSPERIMEN
OUTCOME = HASIL PERCOBAAN
Banyak
Percobaan /eksperimen Ruang sampelnya elemen
(sample space) (Sample point)

## Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 2

dilempar /dilantungkan satu kali
(one coin tosse one time)

## Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 4

dilempar /dilantungkan dua kali
(one coin tossed two time)

## Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 8

dilempar /dilantungkan tiga kali
(one coin tossed three time)

## Sebuah DADU seimbang) (die) 6

dilempar /dilantungkan satu kali

## Is the space of outcomes of all possible experiments

POBABILITY TREES Ruang sampelnya
Mata uang dilempar satu kali (sample speace)
M

M ,B =S

B
Mata uang dilempar dua kali (a coin tosse two times)
M MM
M
B MB
=S
M BM
B
B BB
Mata uang dilempar tiga kali Ruang sampelnya
(a coin tosse three times) (sample space)

M MMM

B MMB
M
M MBM
M B B MBB
=S
M BMM
M B BMB
B
M BBM
B Terdapat 8
B BBB
elemen (eight
sample point)
Hal.46 , lihat juga hal.41
Sebuah mata uang dilempar satu kali, bila bagian muka yang muncul, maka lanjutkan
lempar mata uang satu kali lagi. Tetapi bila bagian belakang yang muncul, maka lanjutkan
melempar sebuah dadu. Tentukan ruang sampelnya.
Ruang sampelnya

M MM

B MB

1 B1
=S
2 B2
3 B3
4 B4
5 B5
6 B6
DUA DADU DILEMPAR SEKALIGUS (Two Dies tosse)

1 2 3 4 5 6

## 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
berdasar Gambar    
A A A A
berdasar WARNA
Q Q Q Q
K K K K

  J
2
J
2
J
2
J
2
berdasar warna 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5

 
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
Probabilitas = Peluang

## Nilai peluang suatu peristiwa E terletak diantara nol dan 1, yaitu

Jadi nilai peluang suatu peristiwa E adalah non negatif dan tidak lebih
dari satu
Jika p menyatakan peluang sukses dan q menyatakan peluang gagal,
maka p +q = 1 atau q = 1-p

## All probabilities must be between 0 and 1, inclusif

The sum of all probabilities must be 1 : Pr(E1+E2+......+En)=1
Complementation
To every set A we can assosiate another set
Consisting of all points of  not contained in A . is
called the complemen of A, Simbolically
Evidently,

## If P(A)=1/2, then it will mean that there is 50 % “chance” that A would

occur
If P(A)=0 , implies that there is no chance that A will occur, and P(A)=1
implies that A will certainly occur.
Example 1
Suppose a coin is tossed 3 times . The possible outcomes may be denoted by
Ω = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
𝜔1 𝜔2 𝜔3 𝜔4 𝜔5 𝜔6 𝜔7 𝜔8

If A is the event that at least one head turns up, [Paling sedikit / minimal]
A={w1,w2,w3,w4,w5,w6,w7}. Then
represents the event that no heads turns up
If B is the event that exactly one head turns up, then

B={ B = ω4 , ω6 , ω7 and ഥ = ω1 , ω2 , ω3 , 𝜔5 , 𝜔8
Bc = B

## C = {all the 3 tosses result in the same outcome} = {w1, w8}

D = {the 3 tosses have at most one tail } = D = ω1 , ω2 , ω3 , 𝜔5
Paling banyak
Example 2
The probability of winning a game is 0,29, then we find
probability of not winning = 1- prob of winning = 1-0.29=0,71
Latiahan /exercise
We toss two coin (one coin and keep track of the order). There
are four possible outcome. HH, HT, TH, TT . What is the
probability of getting :
b. Two tails P(TT)=1/4
c. a head , and then a tail P(HT)=1/4
d. a tail and then a head P(TH)= 1/4
e. The same side on the boot flips ? P(HH or TT)=2/4
g. at least one head P(HH or HT or TH) =3/4)
i. at most one head P(HT,TH,TT)=3/4
Contoh assuming them to be equally likely
Sebuah dadu (seimbang) dilantunkan satu kali, (Tossing the die with six sides) maka

## c peluang munculnya angka 2 atau angka 5 adalah

P(E3)=P(E1)+P(E2
d peluang munculnya angka ganjil (odd/uneven) adalah

## Probability of obtaining an odd number (1,3,5) is 3/6=1/2

Probability of obtaining an even number (2,4,6) is 3/6=1/2

## If A is the event that un even number turns up,

P(A) = P(w2,w4,w6)=1/6+1/6+1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2
Contoh
Sebuah matauang (seimbang) dilantunkan dua kali. Tentukan peluang
munculnya a) paling sedikit satu muka b) muncul belakang dua kali
Jawab

## Perhatikan ruang sampelnya :

a Maka peluang munculnya paling sedikit satu muka (at least one head) adalah

## b Peluang munculnya bagian belakang dua kali adalah

Contoh lain
Jika terdapat 1000 lembar undian berhadiah dijual, dan anda membeli 2
Perhatikan sebuah mata uang dilempar 3 kali, maka Ruang sampelnya adalah

S= {MMM, MMB, MBM , MBB, BMM, BMB, BBM, BBB} ada 8 elemen

## a). Peluang munculnya minimal 2 bagian muka (at least two

b). Peluang munculnya minimal 1 bagian muka (at least one head

Faktorial

## atau , n bilangan asli

Permutasi dan Kombinasi
The number of permutations of n different thing taken r is

## Permutasi yang tidak

seluruhnya berbeda

## For a lot containing n items suppose r items are chosen. This

may be done in

Permutasi melingkar
Contoh
1 Banyaknya Permutasi dari huruf-huruf abc

ab ba ac ca bc cb

## jika diambil 2 sekaligus

ab bc ac
KOMBINATORIAL
DALAM MASALAH KOMBINATORIAL HARUS MENGHITUNG SEMUA
KEMUNGKINAN PENGATURAN OBJEK

## Terdapat dua kaidah dasar yang digunakan sebagai teknik

menghitung dalam kombinatorial, yaitu Kaidah perkalian (rule of
produk) dan Kaidah penjumlahan (rule of sum)
Kaidah perkalian (rule of produk)
Misalkan percobaan I dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara (atau menghasilkan

## kemungkinan hasil) dan percobaan II dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara

Maka jika kedua percobaan ini dikerjakan secara bersama-sama (Simultan)
maka terdapat sebanyak hasil yang mungkin terjadi.

## Kaidah penjumlahan (rule of sum)

Misalkan percobaan I dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara
dan percobaan II dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara
Maka jika hanya salah satu percobaan ini dikerjakan (percobaan I atau
percobaan II), maka terdapat sebanyak hasil yang mungkin terjadi.

Perluasan
Resto
NasGor Kopi
Kopi Susu
Pizza NasGor
Susu Teh
Roti Teh
Lemper Kopi
Pizza Susu
JalKot Teh

Kopi
Roti Susu
Teh
Kopi
Lemper Susu
Teh

Kopi
JalKot Susu
Teh
Terdapat 45 Mhs Mat 2010, dan 50 Mhs Mat 2011.
Berapa cara memilih seorang ketua Himpunan Mat

## Terdapat 45 Cara memilih seorang Ketua dari Angkt.2010

Terdapat 50 Cara memilih seorang Ketua dari Angkt. 2011

## Maka banyak cara adalah 45+50=95 Cara

Combinasi 12 Mat
Panitia
Berapa cara membentuk 5
8 Stat
panitia bila
1 Panitia harus 3 Matematikawan dan 2 Statistikawan

## 2 Paling sedikit 3 Mat dan 1 stat

(3 M dan 2 S) atau (4 M dan 1 S)
Berapa cara 5 mahasiswa dapat duduk pada susunan ….

1 5 deretan kursi x x x x x

## 2 7 deretan kursi 7 cara

6 cara
5 cara
4 cara

3 cara
. Dasar-Dasar Teori Probabilitas
Notasi Ruang Sampel :

## Jika E suatu peristiwa , maka

Probabilitas sukses :

Probabilitas gagal :

Sukses
gagal
Teorema
terpisah

## Probabilitas bahwa sehimpunan kejadian yang saling bebas

hasil kali dari masing-masing probabilitas
[mengenai kejadian2 yg saling bebas]. Jika Probabilitas suatu
dalam urutan itu adalah p1 p2.
4 Biru 3 Biru 1 Biru kantong di ambil
5 Hitam 7 Hitam 4 Hitam sebuah bola

## Tentukan probabilitas bahwa ke tiga bola yang terambil

semuanya warna biru
Satu bola dapat diambil dari kantong pertama dengan 9 cara, dari
kantong kedua dengan 10 cara dan dari kantong ketiga dengan 5
cara. Tiga bola berasal dari tiap-tiap kantong dengan 9 10 5
cara. Satu bola biru dapat terambil dari kantong pertama dengan
4 cara, dari kantong kedua dengan 3 cara dan dari kantong
ketiga dengan 1 cara. Jadi 3 bola biru dapat terambil masing-
masing 1 dari tiap kantong dengan 4 3 1 cara. Jadi
Kejadian2 ini saling bebas karena pengambilan bola
biru pada tiap kantong tidak mempengaruhi
pengambilan bola biru lainnya.
Latih
1 Dari setumpuk kartu (52) diambil 2 kartu satu persatu
Tentukan Probabilitas bahwa

(a) Kedua kartu yang diambil adalah King dan Queen bila
kartu pertama yang terambil dikembalikan sebelum penarikan
kedua (b) Tanpa pengembalian

## 2 Dua dadu dilempar 5 kali . Tentukan probabilitas bahwa

pertama dan tidak muncul pada 2 pelemparan sisanya.
(b). Jumlah mata 7 muncul tepat pada 3 pelemparan.
Probabilitas bersyarat (Conditional Probability)

## If , A and B are said to be independent

Distr Peluang Diskret
Probability

characteristics.

## Complement : The complement of event A (represented by

the symbol A’) includes all events that are not part of A.

## Sample space : The collection of all the possible events is called

the sample space
Table 1: presents the result of the 1000 households in terms of purchase behavior
for big-screen television.
Contingency table and venn diagram

Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000

## We can defini the even as follows :

A = planned to purchase B = actually purchased
A’= did not plan to purchase B’ = did not actually purchase
Table 2
Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase B B’
A 200 50 250
A’ 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
•What is the sample space ?.
•Given examples of simple even , complemen of the even and joint events.

Solution
•The sample space containts of the 1000 respondents

•Simple event are : “planned to purchase” ; “did not plan to purchase” ; “purchased”
and “did not purchase”.

## The complemen of the even “planned to purchase” is “did not to purchase”

The even “planned to purchase and actually purchased” is a joint even because
the respondent must plan to purchase the television and actually purchase it
Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase B B’
A 200 50 250
A’ 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
A = planned to purchase B = actually purchased
A’= did not plan to purchase B’ = did not actually purchase

## consist of all 200 households who planned to purchase and actually

purchased a big-screen television set.
The remainder of even A (planned to purchase) consists of 50 households
whoplanned to purchase a big-screen television but did not actually purchase one
The remainder of even B (actually purchased) consists of the 100 households
who did not plan to purchasebig-screen television set but actually purchase one.
The remaining 650 households represent those who neither planned to purchase
nor actually purchased a big-screen television set.
B

A
Conditional Probability
The probability of A given B is equal to the probability of A and B devided by
the probability of B

where

## = joint probability of A and B

=marginal probabilty of A

= marginal probabilty of B

OR, also

where
Independence

where

## = conditional probability of A given B

P(A) = marginal probability of A
How to construct a decision tree

## Table 1 : households are classified according to whether they planned to

purcahse and whether they actually purchased big-screen televisions

## Decision tree: Actually

Purchased

Planned to
Purchase Did not Actually
Purchase
Entire set of
households Actually
Purchased
Did not Plan
to Purchase

## Did not Actually

Purchase
Soal-soal
?
/Exercises
1. Given the following contingency table
B’
B’
B
B
A 10 30
A 10 20
A’
A’
25 35
20 40
What is the probability of
•event A ?
•event A’ ?
•event A and B ?
•event A or B?
•event A’ and B’
•event A’ or B’
What is the probability of

## event A and B independent ?

Jawab
B B’ Total
Buat dulu table
lengkap A 10 20 30
A’ 20 40 60
Total 30 60 90

1
a =
3
2
b =
3
? 30 30 1
c atau P A ∩ B = P A . P B = =
90 90 9
5
d =
9
5
=
9

e
a

## d A and B are independent

Figure 3 : shows a probability tree for the gender of two children (a bout 51 % of
the children born are male )
First Born Second Born
BB
Boy 0,2601=0,26
0,51

Boy Girl BG
0,49 0,2499=0,25
0,51
GB
0,51 Boy 0,2499=0,25
0,49 Girl

0,49 GG
Girl 0,2401=0,24

## a. What is the probability that the first born is a boy

b. What is the probability that both the first and second born are a boys
c. What is the probability that the second born is a boy
d. What is the probability of at least one boy
Solution
First Born Second Born

Boy
=(0,51) (0,51) = 0,26
P(B)=0,51

## Boy Girl 0,25=0.51.0.49=0.2499

P(B)=0,51 P(G)=0,49

## P(B)=0,51 Boy 0,25

P(G)=0,49 Girl
Girl 0,24=0.49.0.49=0.2401
P(G)=0,49

d
Table 4

Total
Yes No
Yes 0,30 0,10 0,40
No 0,12 0,48 0,60
Total 0,42 0,58 1

The probability the event “read text” (0,40) and its complement “ did not read
text” (0,60).
The probability for the event “read novel” (0,42) and its complemen “did not

0,30

Yes
text
0,40 0,10
No
Yes novel

Yes 0,12

No
0,60

No 0,48

## The probability of read text is 0,30 + 0,10=0,40

The probability of read novel is 0,30 + 0,12=0,42
Sum of ending baranches = 0,30+0,10+0,12+0,48=1
•Suppose we have a class with 20 students. Three are male and blue-eyed,
5 are male and brown-eyed, 6 are female and blue-eyed, and 6 are female and
brown-eyed. We plan to select one student at random . The joint probability
table is shown in tabel 5.

Eye color
Table 5 Total
Blue Brown
Male 3/20=0,15 5/20=0,25 0,40
Gender
female 6/20=0,30 6/20=0,30 0,60
Total 0,45 0,55 1
What is the probability of selecting
•a male
•a female
•a person with blue eyes
•a brown-eyed female
•a blue-eyed female

## P(E1)=0,40 ; P(E2)= 0,60; P(E3)=0,45 ; P(E4)=0,30; P(E5)=0,30

Tabel 6: Joint probability for the gender of two children

First
Total
male female
Male 0,26 0,25 0,51
Second
female 0,25 0,24 0,49
Total 0,51 0,49 1

## What is the probability that

•The first is female or the second is female
•The first is male or the second is male
•The first is male or the second is female
Correction
A coin is tossed 3 times
Sample space Ω = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
A : is the event that the 3 tosses have at most one tail PALING BANYAK 1 T

B: is the event that all the 3 toesses result in the same outcome
1. Sebuah kotak berisi berisi 4 bola berwarna putih, 5 bola merah dan
6 bola biru. Tentukan probabilitas bahwa sebuah bola diambil
berwarna (a) putih, (b) merah, (c) biru , (d), bukan putih
(e) putih atau biru

2. Dari soal (1), tiga bola diambil secara berurutan. Tentukan probabilitas
bahwa urutan bola yang diambil adalah putih, merah dan biru bila
(a) bola di ambil tanpa pengembalian , (b) dengan pengembalian.
Jawab

5M d.
6B
e.
2

## Misalkan P = peristiwa bola berwarna putih terambil pada penarikan pertama

M = peristiwa bola berwarna merah terambil pada penarikan kedua
B = peristiwa bola berwarna biru terambil pada penarikan ketiga

## Ditanya peristiwa bersyarat

4P
5M
Solusi 6B
a Tanpa pengembalian : maka Peluang bersyarat adalah

## b dengan pengembalian : maka Peristiwa saling bebas

Contoh peluang bersyarat
bahwa penerbangan pemberangkatan tepat waktu P(B) =0,84. Peluang tiba
tepat waktu P(T)=0,81, dan peluang berangkat dan tiba tepat waktu
P(BT)=0,77. Tentukan peluang bahwa
a. Pesawat X tiba tepat waktu bila diketahui berangkat tepat waktu
b. Pesawat Y berangkat tepat waktu bila diketahui tiba tepat waktu

Solusi

b
Contoh peluang bersyarat
4 •Peluang bersyarat. Dari setumpuk kartu remi (52) diambil 3 buah kartu
satu demi satu tanpa pengembalian. Tentukan peluang bahwa ketiga kartu
pengambilan pertama”, “kartu 10 atau Jack pada pengambilan kedua”,
dan “kartu ketiga adalah lebih besar dari 4 tapi lebih kecil dari 8”.
Solusi
Misalkan
: kejadian bahwa kartu ketiga terambil adalah lebih besar 4 tapi lebih kecil 8

## Bagaimana kalau dengan pengembalian ? : Peristiwa saling bebas

berdasar Gambar    
A A A A
berdasar WARNA
Q Q Q Q
K K K K

  J
2
J
2
J
2
J
2
AS hitam 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5

 
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
AS merah
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
Hypothesis Testing
Testing a Hypothesisi about the mean

## Suppose that a new experimental medical treatment

has lowered the cholestrol levels of 50 randomly
selected patients with heart disease by an average of
15.3 points. Would we be justified in claiming that
this treatment really lowers cholesterol ?
The Six-Step Method of Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypotrhesis,

## 2. Choose the level of significances, , and the sample size, n.

3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and sampling distribution

4. Determine the critical value that divide the rejection and non rejection region.

5. Collect the sampel data and compute the value of the test statistic.

6. Make the statistical desision and state the managerial conclusion. If the test
statistical falls into the non rejection region, you do not reject the null hypothesis.
If the test statistic falls into rejection region, you reject the null hypothesis.
The managerial conclusion is written in the context of the real-world problem
A null hypothesis is always is one of status quo and is identified by
the symbol
.

## The alternative hypothesis , is the opposite of the

null hypothesis
For example , the null and alternative hypothesis are

## represent s the difference between mean sample and mean

population  in standard error unit .
where  is standar erroe of the mean
Statistic Test The Z- test statistic and the t-test statistic

## for detrmining the difference between the sample mean, and

the population mean  , when the standard deviation  is known.

## The decision rule is

Daerah penerimaan dan penolakan untuk uji Z
(Uji Dua arah)

Daerah
penerimaan

0
Daerah Daerah
penolakan penolakan
Critical Critical
value value
Daerah penerimaan dan penolakan untuk uji Z
(Uji satu arah)

Region of non
rejection

0
Region of
rejection

Critical
value
Two-tail test One-tail test

 /2

0.01= 1 % 0.005
0.05= 5% 0.025
0.10= 10 % 0.05

## Baca pada tabel dibawah kurva normal standar dari 0 ke z

Read in Area A under the standard normal curve from 0 to z
Read in Area A under the standard normal curve from - to z
Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)
The rejection region devided into the two tails of the
distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

## The decision rule is

Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)

## The rejection region devided into the two tails of the

distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

0
Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)

## The rejection region devided into the two tails of the

distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

0
Example
Company specification require a mean weight of 368 grams per box. It is
responsability to adjust the process when the mean fill weight in the
population of boxes deviates from 368 grams. How can you rationally make
the decision whether or not to adjust the process when it is impossible to
weight every single box as it is being filled ?. You begin by selecting and
weighting a random sample of 25 cereal boxes . After computing a sample
mean, how do you proceed ?

## Suppose that the sample of 25 cereal boxes indicates a sample

mean is
and the population standard deviation ,  is 15 grams.
The null and alternative hypothesis are

## Choose the level of significances

Because

You do not reject . You continu to beliave that the mean fill
amount is 368 grams.
PROBLEMS
1. If you use a 0.05 level of significance in a (two-tail)
hypothesis test, what will you decide if
2. If you use a 0.10 level of significance in a (two-tail)
hypothesis test, what is your decision rule for rejecting a null
hypothesis that the population mean is 500 if you use the Z
test ?

## 3. If you use a 0.01 level of significance in a (two-tail)

hypothesis test, what is your decision rule for rejecting
Ho: =12.5 if you use the Z test ?
Solution
1. and

Them

2.

3.