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The Outcome and the Event

In everyday life we come across many phenomena, the nature of which cannot
be predicted in advance or many experiments, whose outcomes may not be
known precisely. However we may know that the outcome has to be one of
several possibilities.
When a coin is tossed, we know that the outcome has to be either a head or a
tail; but we do not know the outcome of a particular throw in advance
Definition
a. An outcome is a single possible result of random experiment
b. An Event is any collection of outcomes
c. A simple Event is an event consisting of just one outcome
Let us denote by w the tipical outcome of un experiment E . w is called a
sampel point (titik sampel) . The totality of all outcome of E will be denote by
 (or S) and is called the sample space. A collection of outcome of E in which we
are interested will be called an event. Thus an event is a subset of 
PROBABILITY = PROBABILITAS = PELUANG = KEMUNGKINAN
EVENT = PERISTIWA = KEJADIAN
EXPERIMENT = PERCOBAAN = EKSPERIMEN
OUTCOME = HASIL PERCOBAAN
Banyak
Percobaan /eksperimen Ruang sampelnya elemen
(sample space) (Sample point)

Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 2


dilempar /dilantungkan satu kali
(one coin tosse one time)

Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 4


dilempar /dilantungkan dua kali
(one coin tossed two time)

Sebuah mata uang (seimbang) 8


dilempar /dilantungkan tiga kali
(one coin tossed three time)

Sebuah DADU seimbang) (die) 6


dilempar /dilantungkan satu kali

Menentukan jenis kelamain (sex) 2

Is the space of outcomes of all possible experiments


POBABILITY TREES Ruang sampelnya
Mata uang dilempar satu kali (sample speace)
M

M ,B =S

B
Mata uang dilempar dua kali (a coin tosse two times)
M MM
M
B MB
=S
M BM
B
B BB
Mata uang dilempar tiga kali Ruang sampelnya
(a coin tosse three times) (sample space)

M MMM

B MMB
M
M MBM
M B B MBB
=S
M BMM
M B BMB
B
M BBM
B Terdapat 8
B BBB
elemen (eight
sample point)
Hal.46 , lihat juga hal.41
Sebuah mata uang dilempar satu kali, bila bagian muka yang muncul, maka lanjutkan
lempar mata uang satu kali lagi. Tetapi bila bagian belakang yang muncul, maka lanjutkan
melempar sebuah dadu. Tentukan ruang sampelnya.
Ruang sampelnya

M MM

B MB

1 B1
=S
2 B2
3 B3
4 B4
5 B5
6 B6
DUA DADU DILEMPAR SEKALIGUS (Two Dies tosse)

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6


2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
DUA DADU DILEMPAR SEKALIGUS

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
berdasar Gambar    
A A A A
berdasar WARNA
Q Q Q Q
K K K K

  J
2
J
2
J
2
J
2
berdasar warna 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5

 
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
Probabilitas = Peluang

Peluang / probabilitas suatu kejadian E , didefinisikan sebagai

Nilai peluang suatu peristiwa E terletak diantara nol dan 1, yaitu

Jadi nilai peluang suatu peristiwa E adalah non negatif dan tidak lebih
dari satu
Jika p menyatakan peluang sukses dan q menyatakan peluang gagal,
maka p +q = 1 atau q = 1-p

All probabilities must be between 0 and 1, inclusif


The sum of all probabilities must be 1 : Pr(E1+E2+......+En)=1
Complementation
To every set A we can assosiate another set
Consisting of all points of  not contained in A . is
called the complemen of A, Simbolically
Evidently,

If P(A)=1/2, then it will mean that there is 50 % “chance” that A would


occur
If P(A)=0 , implies that there is no chance that A will occur, and P(A)=1
implies that A will certainly occur.
Example 1
Suppose a coin is tossed 3 times . The possible outcomes may be denoted by
Ω = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
𝜔1 𝜔2 𝜔3 𝜔4 𝜔5 𝜔6 𝜔7 𝜔8

If A is the event that at least one head turns up, [Paling sedikit / minimal]
A={w1,w2,w3,w4,w5,w6,w7}. Then
represents the event that no heads turns up
If B is the event that exactly one head turns up, then

B={ B = ω4 , ω6 , ω7 and ഥ = ω1 , ω2 , ω3 , 𝜔5 , 𝜔8
Bc = B

C = {all the 3 tosses result in the same outcome} = {w1, w8}


D = {the 3 tosses have at most one tail } = D = ω1 , ω2 , ω3 , 𝜔5
Paling banyak
Example 2
The probability of winning a game is 0,29, then we find
probability of not winning = 1- prob of winning = 1-0.29=0,71
Latiahan /exercise
We toss two coin (one coin and keep track of the order). There
are four possible outcome. HH, HT, TH, TT . What is the
probability of getting :
a. Two heads P(HH)= 1/4
b. Two tails P(TT)=1/4
c. a head , and then a tail P(HT)=1/4
d. a tail and then a head P(TH)= 1/4
e. The same side on the boot flips ? P(HH or TT)=2/4
f. No head P(TT)=1/4
g. at least one head P(HH or HT or TH) =3/4)
i. at most one head P(HT,TH,TT)=3/4
Contoh assuming them to be equally likely
Sebuah dadu (seimbang) dilantunkan satu kali, (Tossing the die with six sides) maka

a peluang munculnya angka 2 adalah P(2) =1/6 P(E1)=1/6

b peluang munculnya angka 5 adalah P(5) =1/6 P(E2)=1/6

c peluang munculnya angka 2 atau angka 5 adalah

P(E3)=P(E1)+P(E2
d peluang munculnya angka ganjil (odd/uneven) adalah

Probability of obtaining an odd number (1,3,5) is 3/6=1/2


Probability of obtaining an even number (2,4,6) is 3/6=1/2

If A is the event that un even number turns up,


P(A) = P(w2,w4,w6)=1/6+1/6+1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2
Contoh
Sebuah matauang (seimbang) dilantunkan dua kali. Tentukan peluang
munculnya a) paling sedikit satu muka b) muncul belakang dua kali
Jawab

Perhatikan ruang sampelnya :

a Maka peluang munculnya paling sedikit satu muka (at least one head) adalah

b Peluang munculnya bagian belakang dua kali adalah

Contoh lain
Jika terdapat 1000 lembar undian berhadiah dijual, dan anda membeli 2
lembar kupon berhadiah , maka peluang anda untuk mendapat hadiah
adalah sebesar
Perhatikan sebuah mata uang dilempar 3 kali, maka Ruang sampelnya adalah

S= {MMM, MMB, MBM , MBB, BMM, BMB, BBM, BBB} ada 8 elemen

a). Peluang munculnya minimal 2 bagian muka (at least two


head)

b). Peluang munculnya minimal 1 bagian muka (at least one head

c). Peluang munculnya tepat 3 bagian muka (exactly 3 head)

d). Peluang munculnya tepat 2 bagian belakang (exactly 2 tail)


Faktorial

atau , n bilangan asli


Permutasi dan Kombinasi
The number of permutations of n different thing taken r is

Permutasi yang tidak


seluruhnya berbeda

KOMBINASI The number of combinations of n different thing taken r is

For a lot containing n items suppose r items are chosen. This


may be done in

Permutasi melingkar
Contoh
1 Banyaknya Permutasi dari huruf-huruf abc

ab ba ac ca bc cb

2 Banyaknya permutasi huru-huruf dalam kata “statistics” adalah

3 Banyaknya Kombinasi dari huruf-huruf abc

jika diambil 2 sekaligus


ab bc ac
KOMBINATORIAL
DALAM MASALAH KOMBINATORIAL HARUS MENGHITUNG SEMUA
KEMUNGKINAN PENGATURAN OBJEK

Terdapat dua kaidah dasar yang digunakan sebagai teknik


menghitung dalam kombinatorial, yaitu Kaidah perkalian (rule of
produk) dan Kaidah penjumlahan (rule of sum)
Kaidah perkalian (rule of produk)
Misalkan percobaan I dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara (atau menghasilkan

kemungkinan hasil) dan percobaan II dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara


Maka jika kedua percobaan ini dikerjakan secara bersama-sama (Simultan)
maka terdapat sebanyak hasil yang mungkin terjadi.

Kaidah penjumlahan (rule of sum)


Misalkan percobaan I dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara
dan percobaan II dapat dikerjakan sebanyak cara
Maka jika hanya salah satu percobaan ini dikerjakan (percobaan I atau
percobaan II), maka terdapat sebanyak hasil yang mungkin terjadi.

Perluasan
Resto
NasGor Kopi
Kopi Susu
Pizza NasGor
Susu Teh
Roti Teh
Lemper Kopi
Pizza Susu
JalKot Teh

Kopi
Roti Susu
Teh
Kopi
Lemper Susu
Teh

Kopi
JalKot Susu
Teh
Terdapat 45 Mhs Mat 2010, dan 50 Mhs Mat 2011.
Berapa cara memilih seorang ketua Himpunan Mat

Terdapat 45 Cara memilih seorang Ketua dari Angkt.2010


Terdapat 50 Cara memilih seorang Ketua dari Angkt. 2011

Maka banyak cara adalah 45+50=95 Cara


Combinasi 12 Mat
Panitia
Berapa cara membentuk 5
8 Stat
panitia bila
1 Panitia harus 3 Matematikawan dan 2 Statistikawan

2 Paling sedikit 3 Mat dan 1 stat


(3 M dan 2 S) atau (4 M dan 1 S)
Berapa cara 5 mahasiswa dapat duduk pada susunan ….

1 5 deretan kursi x x x x x

2 7 deretan kursi 7 cara


6 cara
5 cara
4 cara

3 cara
. Dasar-Dasar Teori Probabilitas
Notasi Ruang Sampel :

Jika E suatu peristiwa , maka


Probabilitas sukses :

Probabilitas gagal :

Sukses
gagal
Teorema
Probabilitas dari salah satu kejadian dari sehimpunan kejadian-
kejadian yang saling eksklusif yang terjadi pada satu percobaan
adalah jumlah dari masing-masing probabilitas kejadian secara
terpisah

Probabilitas bahwa E1 akan terjadi atau E2 akan terjadi

Probabilitas bahwa sehimpunan kejadian yang saling bebas


(independent event) akan terjadi dalam satu percobaan adalah
hasil kali dari masing-masing probabilitas
[mengenai kejadian2 yg saling bebas]. Jika Probabilitas suatu
kejadian akan terjadi adalah p1 dan jika sesudah kejadian itu
terjadi bahwa probabilitas kejadian yang kedua akan terjadi
adalah p2, maka probabbilitas kedua kejadian itu akan terjadi
dalam urutan itu adalah p1 p2.
Pada masing-masing
4 Biru 3 Biru 1 Biru kantong di ambil
5 Hitam 7 Hitam 4 Hitam sebuah bola

Tentukan probabilitas bahwa ke tiga bola yang terambil


semuanya warna biru
Satu bola dapat diambil dari kantong pertama dengan 9 cara, dari
kantong kedua dengan 10 cara dan dari kantong ketiga dengan 5
cara. Tiga bola berasal dari tiap-tiap kantong dengan 9 10 5
cara. Satu bola biru dapat terambil dari kantong pertama dengan
4 cara, dari kantong kedua dengan 3 cara dan dari kantong
ketiga dengan 1 cara. Jadi 3 bola biru dapat terambil masing-
masing 1 dari tiap kantong dengan 4 3 1 cara. Jadi
probabilitasnya adalah
Kejadian2 ini saling bebas karena pengambilan bola
biru pada tiap kantong tidak mempengaruhi
pengambilan bola biru lainnya.
Latih
1 Dari setumpuk kartu (52) diambil 2 kartu satu persatu
Tentukan Probabilitas bahwa

(a) Kedua kartu yang diambil adalah King dan Queen bila
kartu pertama yang terambil dikembalikan sebelum penarikan
kedua (b) Tanpa pengembalian

2 Dua dadu dilempar 5 kali . Tentukan probabilitas bahwa


(a). Mata dadu berjumlah 7 muncul pada 3 kali pelemparan
pertama dan tidak muncul pada 2 pelemparan sisanya.
(b). Jumlah mata 7 muncul tepat pada 3 pelemparan.
Probabilitas bersyarat (Conditional Probability)

Jika E1 dan E2 saling bebas maka

Jika E1 dan E2 terjadi serentak

Conditional Probability of A Given that B has occured,

If , A and B are said to be independent


Distr Peluang Diskret
Probability

Event : Each possible outcome of a variable is referred to as an event.

A simple event is described by a single characteristic

Joint-Event : A joint event is an even that has two ore more


characteristics.

Complement : The complement of event A (represented by


the symbol A’) includes all events that are not part of A.

Sample space : The collection of all the possible events is called


the sample space
Table 1: presents the result of the 1000 households in terms of purchase behavior
for big-screen television.
Contingency table and venn diagram

Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase Yes No
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000

We can defini the even as follows :


A = planned to purchase B = actually purchased
A’= did not plan to purchase B’ = did not actually purchase
Table 2
Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase B B’
A 200 50 250
A’ 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
•What is the sample space ?.
•Given examples of simple even , complemen of the even and joint events.

Solution
•The sample space containts of the 1000 respondents

•Simple event are : “planned to purchase” ; “did not plan to purchase” ; “purchased”
and “did not purchase”.

The complemen of the even “planned to purchase” is “did not to purchase”

The even “planned to purchase and actually purchased” is a joint even because
the respondent must plan to purchase the television and actually purchase it
Actually Purchased
Total
Planned to Purchase B B’
A 200 50 250
A’ 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1000
A = planned to purchase B = actually purchased
A’= did not plan to purchase B’ = did not actually purchase

consist of all 200 households who planned to purchase and actually


purchased a big-screen television set.
The remainder of even A (planned to purchase) consists of 50 households
whoplanned to purchase a big-screen television but did not actually purchase one
The remainder of even B (actually purchased) consists of the 100 households
who did not plan to purchasebig-screen television set but actually purchase one.
The remaining 650 households represent those who neither planned to purchase
nor actually purchased a big-screen television set.
B

A
Conditional Probability
The probability of A given B is equal to the probability of A and B devided by
the probability of B

where

= joint probability of A and B

=marginal probabilty of A

= marginal probabilty of B

J A dan B saling bebas Jika Hanya Jika


OR, also

where
Independence

Two event A and B are independent if and only if :

Two event A and B are independent if and only if :


where

= conditional probability of A given B


P(A) = marginal probability of A
How to construct a decision tree

Table 1 : households are classified according to whether they planned to


purcahse and whether they actually purchased big-screen televisions

Decision tree: Actually


Purchased

Planned to
Purchase Did not Actually
Purchase
Entire set of
households Actually
Purchased
Did not Plan
to Purchase

Did not Actually


Purchase
Soal-soal
?
/Exercises
1. Given the following contingency table
B’
B’
B
B
A 10 30
A 10 20
A’
A’
25 35
20 40
What is the probability of
•event A ?
•event A’ ?
•event A and B ?
•event A or B?
•event A’ and B’
•event A’ or B’
What is the probability of

event A and B independent ?


Jawab
B B’ Total
Buat dulu table
lengkap A 10 20 30
A’ 20 40 60
Total 30 60 90

1
a =
3
2
b =
3
? 30 30 1
c atau P A ∩ B = P A . P B = =
90 90 9
5
d =
9
5
=
9

e
a

d A and B are independent


Figure 3 : shows a probability tree for the gender of two children (a bout 51 % of
the children born are male )
First Born Second Born
BB
Boy 0,2601=0,26
0,51

Boy Girl BG
0,49 0,2499=0,25
0,51
GB
0,51 Boy 0,2499=0,25
0,49 Girl

0,49 GG
Girl 0,2401=0,24

a. What is the probability that the first born is a boy


b. What is the probability that both the first and second born are a boys
c. What is the probability that the second born is a boy
d. What is the probability of at least one boy
Solution
First Born Second Born

Boy
=(0,51) (0,51) = 0,26
P(B)=0,51

Boy Girl 0,25=0.51.0.49=0.2499


P(B)=0,51 P(G)=0,49

P(B)=0,51 Boy 0,25


P(G)=0,49 Girl
Girl 0,24=0.49.0.49=0.2401
P(G)=0,49

d
Table 4

Read Novel
Total
Yes No
Yes 0,30 0,10 0,40
Read Text
No 0,12 0,48 0,60
Total 0,42 0,58 1

The probability the event “read text” (0,40) and its complement “ did not read
text” (0,60).
The probability for the event “read novel” (0,42) and its complemen “did not
read novel” (0,58).

Probability of “read text or read novel”= 0,30+0,10+0,12=0,52


Probability for the two events “read text book” and “read novel”

Read Text book Read Novel

0,30

Yes
text
Read text or novel
0,40 0,10
No
Yes novel

Yes 0,12

No
0,60

No 0,48

The probability of read text is 0,30 + 0,10=0,40


The probability of read novel is 0,30 + 0,12=0,42
Sum of ending baranches = 0,30+0,10+0,12+0,48=1
•Suppose we have a class with 20 students. Three are male and blue-eyed,
5 are male and brown-eyed, 6 are female and blue-eyed, and 6 are female and
brown-eyed. We plan to select one student at random . The joint probability
table is shown in tabel 5.

Eye color
Table 5 Total
Blue Brown
Male 3/20=0,15 5/20=0,25 0,40
Gender
female 6/20=0,30 6/20=0,30 0,60
Total 0,45 0,55 1
What is the probability of selecting
•a male
•a female
•a person with blue eyes
•a brown-eyed female
•a blue-eyed female

P(E1)=0,40 ; P(E2)= 0,60; P(E3)=0,45 ; P(E4)=0,30; P(E5)=0,30


Tabel 6: Joint probability for the gender of two children

First
Total
male female
Male 0,26 0,25 0,51
Second
female 0,25 0,24 0,49
Total 0,51 0,49 1

What is the probability that


•The first is female or the second is female
•The first is male or the second is male
•The first is male or the second is female
Correction
A coin is tossed 3 times
Sample space Ω = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
A : is the event that the 3 tosses have at most one tail PALING BANYAK 1 T

B: is the event that all the 3 toesses result in the same outcome
1. Sebuah kotak berisi berisi 4 bola berwarna putih, 5 bola merah dan
6 bola biru. Tentukan probabilitas bahwa sebuah bola diambil
berwarna (a) putih, (b) merah, (c) biru , (d), bukan putih
(e) putih atau biru

2. Dari soal (1), tiga bola diambil secara berurutan. Tentukan probabilitas
bahwa urutan bola yang diambil adalah putih, merah dan biru bila
(a) bola di ambil tanpa pengembalian , (b) dengan pengembalian.
Jawab

1 4P a. P(P)=4/15 b. P(M)=5/15 c. P(B)=6/15


5M d.
6B
e.
2

Misalkan P = peristiwa bola berwarna putih terambil pada penarikan pertama


M = peristiwa bola berwarna merah terambil pada penarikan kedua
B = peristiwa bola berwarna biru terambil pada penarikan ketiga

Ditanya peristiwa bersyarat


4P
5M
Solusi 6B
a Tanpa pengembalian : maka Peluang bersyarat adalah

b dengan pengembalian : maka Peristiwa saling bebas


Contoh peluang bersyarat
3 Suatu Maskapai penerbangan telah memiliki jadwal yang teratur. Peluang
bahwa penerbangan pemberangkatan tepat waktu P(B) =0,84. Peluang tiba
tepat waktu P(T)=0,81, dan peluang berangkat dan tiba tepat waktu
P(BT)=0,77. Tentukan peluang bahwa
a. Pesawat X tiba tepat waktu bila diketahui berangkat tepat waktu
b. Pesawat Y berangkat tepat waktu bila diketahui tiba tepat waktu

Solusi

b
Contoh peluang bersyarat
4 •Peluang bersyarat. Dari setumpuk kartu remi (52) diambil 3 buah kartu
satu demi satu tanpa pengembalian. Tentukan peluang bahwa ketiga kartu
yang terambil berturut-turut adalah “kartu as berwarna hitam pada
pengambilan pertama”, “kartu 10 atau Jack pada pengambilan kedua”,
dan “kartu ketiga adalah lebih besar dari 4 tapi lebih kecil dari 8”.
Solusi
Misalkan
: kejadian bahwa kartu pertama terambil adalah as berwarna hitam
: kejadian bahwa kartu kedua terambil adalah 10 atau Jack
: kejadian bahwa kartu ketiga terambil adalah lebih besar 4 tapi lebih kecil 8
maka kejadian bersyarat

Bagaimana kalau dengan pengembalian ? : Peristiwa saling bebas


berdasar Gambar    
A A A A
berdasar WARNA
Q Q Q Q
K K K K

  J
2
J
2
J
2
J
2
AS hitam 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5

 
6 6 6 6
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
AS merah
9 9 9 9
10 10 10 10
Hypothesis Testing
Testing a Hypothesisi about the mean

Suppose that a new experimental medical treatment


has lowered the cholestrol levels of 50 randomly
selected patients with heart disease by an average of
15.3 points. Would we be justified in claiming that
this treatment really lowers cholesterol ?
The Six-Step Method of Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypotrhesis,

2. Choose the level of significances, , and the sample size, n.


3. Determine the appropriate test statistic and sampling distribution

4. Determine the critical value that divide the rejection and non rejection region.

5. Collect the sampel data and compute the value of the test statistic.

6. Make the statistical desision and state the managerial conclusion. If the test
statistical falls into the non rejection region, you do not reject the null hypothesis.
If the test statistic falls into rejection region, you reject the null hypothesis.
The managerial conclusion is written in the context of the real-world problem
A null hypothesis is always is one of status quo and is identified by
the symbol
.

The alternative hypothesis , is the opposite of the


null hypothesis
For example , the null and alternative hypothesis are

represent s the difference between mean sample and mean


population  in standard error unit .
where  is standar erroe of the mean
Statistic Test The Z- test statistic and the t-test statistic

If standard deviation  is assume known

for detrmining the difference between the sample mean, and


the population mean  , when the standard deviation  is known.

If standarf deviation  is assume unknown

where Is standard deviation of sample

The decision rule is


Daerah penerimaan dan penolakan untuk uji Z
(Uji Dua arah)

Daerah
penerimaan

0
Daerah Daerah
penolakan penolakan
Critical Critical
value value
Daerah penerimaan dan penolakan untuk uji Z
(Uji satu arah)

Region of non
rejection

0
Region of
rejection

Critical
value
Two-tail test One-tail test

 /2

0.01= 1 % 0.005
0.05= 5% 0.025
0.10= 10 % 0.05

Baca pada tabel dibawah kurva normal standar dari 0 ke z


Read in Area A under the standard normal curve from 0 to z
Read in Area A under the standard normal curve from - to z
Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)
The rejection region devided into the two tails of the
distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

The decision rule is


Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)

The rejection region devided into the two tails of the


distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

0
Testing a hypothesis about the mean at the 0,05 level of significance (  known)

The rejection region devided into the two tails of the


distribution (this is called a two-tail test)

0
Example
Company specification require a mean weight of 368 grams per box. It is
responsability to adjust the process when the mean fill weight in the
population of boxes deviates from 368 grams. How can you rationally make
the decision whether or not to adjust the process when it is impossible to
weight every single box as it is being filled ?. You begin by selecting and
weighting a random sample of 25 cereal boxes . After computing a sample
mean, how do you proceed ?

Suppose that the sample of 25 cereal boxes indicates a sample


mean is
and the population standard deviation ,  is 15 grams.
The null and alternative hypothesis are

Using statistic test

Choose the level of significances

Because

You do not reject . You continu to beliave that the mean fill
amount is 368 grams.
PROBLEMS
1. If you use a 0.05 level of significance in a (two-tail)
hypothesis test, what will you decide if
2. If you use a 0.10 level of significance in a (two-tail)
hypothesis test, what is your decision rule for rejecting a null
hypothesis that the population mean is 500 if you use the Z
test ?

3. If you use a 0.01 level of significance in a (two-tail)


hypothesis test, what is your decision rule for rejecting
Ho: =12.5 if you use the Z test ?
Solution
1. and

Them

Because > 1.96, you reject the null hypothesis

2.

The decision rule is


3.

The decision rule is