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You are on page 1of 58

CHAPTER

4

Net Present

Value

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Corporate Finance, 7/e © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4-1

Chapter Outline

4.1 The One-Period Case

4.2 The Multiperiod Case

4.3 Compounding Periods

4.4 Simplifications

4.5 What Is a Firm Worth?

4.6 Summary and Conclusions

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4-2

Future Value

If you were to invest $10,000 at 5-percent interest for

one year, your investment would grow to $10,500

$10,000 is the principal repayment ($10,000 × 1)

$10,500 is the total due. It can be calculated as:

$10,500 = $10,000×(1.05).

The total amount due at the end of the investment is call the

Future Value (FV).

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4-3

Future Value

In the one-period case, the formula for FV can be

written as:

FV = C0×(1 + r)T

r is the appropriate interest rate.

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4-4

Value

If you were to be promised $10,000 due in one

year when interest rates are at 5-percent, your

investment be worth $9,523.81 in today’s dollars.

$10,000

$9,523.81

1.05

The amount that a borrower would need to set aside

today to to able to meet the promised payment of

$10,000 in one year is call the Present Value (PV) of

$10,000.

Note that $10,000 = $9,523.81×(1.05).

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-5

Present Value

In the one-period case, the formula for PV can be written

as:

C1

PV

1 r

r is the appropriate interest rate.

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4-6

Net Present Value

The Net Present Value (NPV) of an investment is the

present value of the expected cash flows, less the cost of

the investment.

Suppose an investment that promises to pay $10,000 in

one year is offered for sale for $9,500. Your interest rate

is 5%. Should you buy?

$10,000

NPV $9,500

1.05

NPV $9,500 $9,523.81

NPV $23.81 Yes!

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Corporate Finance, 7/e © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4-7

Present Value

In the one-period case, the formula for NPV can be written

as:

NPV = –Cost + PV

considered on the last slide, and instead

invested our $9,500 elsewhere at 5-percent, our

FV would be less than the $10,000 the

investment promised and we would be

unambiguously worse off in FV terms as well:

$9,500×(1.05) = $9,975 < $10,000.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-8

Future Value

The general formula for the future value of an

investment over many periods can be written as:

FV = C0×(1 + r)T

Where

C0 is cash flow at date 0,

r is the appropriate interest rate, and

T is the number of periods over which the cash is

invested.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-9

Future Value

Suppose that Jay Ritter invested in the initial

public offering of the Modigliani company.

Modigliani pays a current dividend of $1.10,

which is expected to grow at 40-percent per year

for the next five years.

What will the dividend be in five years?

FV = C0×(1 + r)T

$5.92 = $1.10×(1.40)5

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4-10

Notice that the dividend in year five, $5.92, is

considerably higher than the sum of the original

dividend plus five increases of 40-percent on the

original $1.10 dividend:

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4-11

$1.10 (1.40)5

$1.10 (1.40) 4

$1.10 (1.40)3

$1.10 (1.40) 2

$1.10 (1.40)

0 1 2 3 4 5

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4-12

How much would an investor have to set aside

today in order to have $20,000 five years from

now if the current rate is 15%?

PV $20,000

0 1 2 3 4 5

$20,000

$9,943.53

(1.15)5

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4-13

If we deposit $5,000 today in an account

paying 10%, how long does it take to grow to

$10,000?

FV C0 (1 r )T $10,000 $5,000 (1.10)T

$10,000

(1.10)T 2

$5,000

ln( 1.10)T ln 2

ln 2 0.6931

T 7.27 years

ln( 1.10) 0.0953

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-14

Assume the total cost of a college education

will be $50,000 when your child enters

college in 12 years. You have $5,000 to invest

today. What rate of interest must you earn on

your investment to cover the cost of your

child’s education? About 21.15%.

$50,000

(1 r )

12

10 (1 r ) 101 12

$5,000

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4-15

Compounding an investment m times a year for T

years provides for future value of wealth:

mT

r

FV C0 1

m

For example, if you invest $50 for 3

years at 12% compounded semi-

annually, your investment will grow to

23

.12

FV $50 1 $50 (1.06) 6 $70.93

2

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-16

A reasonable question to ask in the above example

is what is the effective annual rate of interest on

that investment?

.12 23

FV $50 (1 ) $50 (1.06) 6 $70.93

2

The Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAR) is

the annual rate that would give us the same

end-of-investment wealth after 3 years:

$50 (1 EAR) $70.93

3

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4-17

(continued)

FV $50 (1 EAR) $70.93 3

$70.93

(1 EAR) 3

$50

13

$70.93

EAR 1 .1236

$50

So, investing at 12.36% compounded annually is

the same as investing at 12% compounded

semiannually.

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4-18

(continued)

Find the Effective Annual Rate (EAR) of an 18%

APR loan that is compounded monthly.

What we have is a loan with a monthly interest rate

rate of 1½ percent.

This is equivalent to a loan with an annual interest

rate of 19.56 percent

nm 12

r .18

1 1 (1.015) 1.19561817

12

m 12

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-19

Hewlett Packard 10B

keys: display: description:

12 [gold] [P/YR] 12.00 Sets 12 P/YR.

18 [gold] [NOM%] 18.00 Sets 18 APR.

keys: description:

[2nd] [ICONV] Opens interest rate conversion menu

[↑] [C/Y=] 12 Sets 12 payments per year

[↓][NOM=] 18 [ENTER] Sets 18 APR.

[↓] [EFF=] [CPT] 19.56

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-20

The general formula for the future value of an investment

compounded continuously over many periods can be written as:

FV = C0×erT

Where

C0 is cash flow at date 0,

r is the stated annual interest rate,

T is the number of periods over which the cash is invested, and

e is a transcendental number approximately equal to 2.718. ex is a

key on your calculator.

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4-21

4.4 Simplifications

Perpetuity

A constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever.

Growing perpetuity

A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate forever.

Annuity

A stream of constant cash flows that lasts for a fixed number of

periods.

Growing annuity

A stream of cash flows that grows at a constant rate for a fixed

number of periods.

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4-22

Perpetuity

A constant stream of cash flows that lasts forever.

C C C

…

0 1 2 3

C C C

PV

(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )

2 3

C

PV

r

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4-23

Perpetuity: Example

What is the value of a British consol that promises to pay £15

each year, every year until the sun turns into a red giant and

burns the planet to a crisp?

The interest rate is 10-percent.

…

0 1 2 3

£15

PV £150

.10

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4-24

Growing Perpetuity

A growing stream of cash flows that lasts forever.

C C×(1+g) C ×(1+g)2

…

0 1 2 3

C C (1 g ) C (1 g ) 2

PV

(1 r ) (1 r ) 2

(1 r ) 3

perpetuity is: C

PV

rg

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-25

The expected dividend next year is $1.30 and dividends are expected

to grow at 5% forever.

If the discount rate is 10%, what is the value of this promised

dividend stream?

…

0 1 2 3

$1.30

PV $26.00

.10 .05

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-26

Annuity

A constant stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity.

C C C C

0 1 2 3 T

C C C C

PV

(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )

2 3

(1 r ) T

annuity is: C 1

PV 1

r (1 r )T

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-27

Annuity Intuition

C C C C

0 1 2 3 T

An annuity is valued as the difference between two

perpetuities:

one perpetuity that starts at time 1

less a perpetuity that starts at time T + 1

C

PV T

C r

r (1 r )

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-28

Annuity: Example

If you can afford a $400 monthly car payment, how much

car can you afford if interest rates are 7% on 36-month

loans?

0 1 2 3 36

$400 1

PV 1 36

$12,954.59

.07 / 12 (1 .07 12)

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4-29

you know and

I/Y 7 solve for what

you want.

PV 12,954.59

PMT –400

FV 0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-30

per year that makes its first payment two years from today if the

discount rate is 9%?

4

$100 $100 $100 $100 $100

PV1 t

1

2

3

4

$327.97

t 1 (1.09) (1.09) (1.09) (1.09) (1.09)

0 1 2 3 4 5

$327 .97

PV $297 .22

0 1.09

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-31

First, set your calculator to 1 payment per year.

Then, use the cash flow menu:

CF0 0 I 9

F1 1

CF2 100

F2 4

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-32

Growing Annuity

A growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity.

C C×(1+g) C ×(1+g)2 C×(1+g)T-1

0 1 2 3 T

T 1

C C (1 g ) C (1 g )

PV

(1 r ) (1 r ) 2

(1 r )T

The formula for the present value of a growing

annuity: T

C 1 g

PV 1

r g (1 r )

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-33

PV of Growing Annuity

You are evaluating an income property that is providing

increasing rents. Net rent is received at the end of each year.

The first year's rent is expected to be $8,500 and rent is

expected to increase 7% each year. Each payment occur at the

end of the year. What is the present value of the estimated

income stream over the first 5 years if the discount rate is

12%?

$8,500 (1.07) 2 $8,500 (1.07) 4

$8,500 (1.07) $8,500 (1.07)3

$8,500 $9,095 $9,731.65 $10,412.87 $11,141.77

0 1 2 3 4 5

$34,706.26

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Corporate Finance, 7/e © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4-34

First, set your calculator to 1 payment per year.

Then, use the cash flow menu:

CF0 0 I 12

CF1 8,500.00 $34,706.26

NPV

CF2 9,095.00

CF3 9,731.65

CF4 10,412.87

CF5 11,141.77

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-35

PV of Growing Annuity

Using TVM Keys

First, set your calculator to 1 payment per year.

N 5

1.12

I/Y 4.67 1 100

1.07

PV – 34,706.26

8,500

PMT 7,973.93

1.07

FV 0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-36

Why it works

The Time Value of Money Keys use the following

formula:

PMT 1 FV

PV 1 (1 I / Y ) N (1 I / Y ) N

I /Y

Since FV = 0, we can ignore the last term.

We want to get to this equation:

C 1 g

T

PV 1

r g 1 r

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-37

We begin by substituting

PMT

1 g 1 g

PMT 1

PV 1 (1 r ) N becomes

r

PMT

1 g 1

PV 1

1 r 1 r

1 (1 1)

N

1 g 1 g

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-38

PMT

1 g 1

PV 1

1 r 1 r

1 (1 1)

N

1 g 1 g

PV

PMT 1

1

1 r

N

1 1 r

(1 g )

1 g 1 g

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-39

1 g

We continue 1

to simplify terms. Note that: 1 g

PV

PMT 1

1

1 r

N

1 1 r

(1 g )

1 g 1 g

PMT 1 g

N

PV 1

1 r 1 g 1 r

(1 g )

1 g 1 g

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Corporate Finance, 7/e © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4-40

We continue to simplify terms.

PMT 1 g

N

PV 1

r g 1 r

(1 g )

1 g

PMT 1 g

N

PV 1

r g 1 r

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Corporate Finance, 7/e © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4-41

We have proved that we can value growing annuities

with our calculator using the following modifications:

N

1 r

I/Y 1 100

1 g

PV

PMT

PMT

1 g

FV 0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-42

Growing Annuity

A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per

year for 40 years and increase the annual payment by

three-percent each year. What is the present value at

retirement if the discount rate is 10 percent?

$20,000 $20,000×(1.03)$20,000×(1.03)39

0 1 2 40

$20,000 1.03

40

PV 1 $265,121.57

.10 .03 1.10

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-43

A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per year for 40 years and

increase the annual payment by three-percent each year. What is the present value

at retirement if the discount rate is 10 percent per annum?

N 40

1.10

I/Y 6.80 = –1 ×100

1.03

PV – 265,121.57

PMT

20,000

19,417.48 =

1.03

FV 0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-44

Your firm is about to make its initial public offering of stock and

your job is to estimate the correct offering price. Forecast

dividends are as follows.

Year: 1 2 3 4

share thereafter

this risk level, what price will they be willing to pay?

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-45

Year 0 1 2 3 4

…

Cash $1.50 $1.65 $1.82 $1.82×1.05

flow

The second step is to decide on what

we know and what it is we are trying

to find.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-46

Year 0 1 2 3

flow

= $1.82 + $38.22

PV $32.81

1.82 1.05

of

P3 $38.22

cash .10 .05

flow

$1.50 $1.65 $1.82 $38.22

P0 2

3

$32.81

(1.10) (1.10) (1.10)

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-47

Conceptually, a firm should be worth the present

value of the firm’s cash flows.

The tricky part is determining the size, timing

and risk of those cash flows.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-48

Two basic concepts, future value and present value are

introduced in this chapter.

Interest rates are commonly expressed on an annual

basis, but semi-annual, quarterly, monthly and even

continuously compounded interest rate arrangements

exist.

The formula for the net present value of an investment

that pays $C for N periods is:

N

C C C C

NPV C0 C0

(1 r ) (1 r ) 2

(1 r ) N

t 1 (1 r ) t

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-49

We presented four simplifying formulae:

C

Perpetuity : PV

r

C

Growing Perpetuity : PV

rg

C 1

Annuity : PV 1 T

r (1 r )

C 1 g

T

Growing Annuity : PV 1

r g (1 r )

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-50

Practice, practice, practice.

It’s easy to watch Olympic gymnasts and

convince yourself that you are a leotard purchase

away from a triple back flip.

It’s also easy to watch your finance professor do

time value of money problems and convince

yourself that you can do them too.

There is no substitute for getting out the

calculator and flogging the keys until you can do

these correctly and quickly.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-51

Your financial calculator has two major menus

that you must become familiar with:

The time value of money keys:

N; I/YR; PV; PMT; FV

Use this menu to value things with level cash flows, like

annuities e.g. student loans.

It can even be used to value growing annuities.

The cash flow menu

CFj et cetera

Use the cash flow menu to value “lumpy” cash flow

streams.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-52

Problems

You have $30,000 in student loans that call for

monthly payments over 10 years.

$15,000 is financed at seven percent APR

$8,000 is financed at eight percent APR and

$7,000 at 15 percent APR

What is the interest rate on your portfolio of

debt?

Hint: don’t even think about doing this:

15,000 × 7% 8,000 × 8% 7,000 × 15%

30,000 30,000 30,000

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-53

Problems

Find the payment on each loan, add the payments to get your total

monthly payment: $384.16.

Set PV = $30,000 and solve for I/YR = 9.25%

I/Y 7 8 15 9.25

FV 0 0 0 0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-54

Problems

You are considering the purchase of a prepaid tuition plan for your

8-year old daughter. She will start college in exactly 10 years, with

the first tuition payment of $12,500 due at the start of the year.

Sophomore year tuition will be $15,000; junior year tuition

$18,000, and senior year tuition $22,000. How much money will

you have to pay today to fully fund her tuition expenses? The

discount rate is 14%

CF0 0

F1 9 F3 9 F4 1

F2 1 F4 1 NPV $14,662.65

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-55

Problems

You are thinking of buying a new car. You bought you current car

exactly 3 years ago for $25,000 and financed it at 7% APR for

60 months. You need to estimate how much you owe on the loan

to make sure that you can pay it off when you sell the old car.

N 60 N 24 N 36

I/Y 7 I/Y 7 I/Y 7

PV 25,000 PV 11,056 PV 25,000

FV 0 FV FV 11,056

0

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-56

Problems

You have just landed a job and are going to start saving for

a down-payment on a house. You want to save 20

percent of the purchase price and then borrow the rest

from a bank.

You have an investment that pays 10 percent APR. Houses

that you like and can afford currently cost $100,000.

Real estate has been appreciating in price at 5 percent

per year and you expect this trend to continue.

How much should you save every month in order to have a

down payment saved five years from today?

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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4-57

Problems

First we estimate that in 5 years, a house that costs $100,000 today

will cost $127,628.16

Next we estimate the monthly payment required to save up that

much in 60 months.

N 5 N 60

I/Y 5 I/Y 10

PV 100,000 PV 0

FV 127,628.16 FV $25,525.63 = 0.20×$127,628.16

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

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