o Probability is a part of our everyday lives.

In our daily life we

come across so many uncertain situations like

 Does it rain today?

 Will I succeed in the examination ?
 What would be the chance of defective item being
manufactured in a firm?
 What is the chance of recovery of a patient suffering from a
chronic disease ?
 Will India win the World Cup in Cricket ?
 Does the elevator work ?
• Meaning
• Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur.
• A probability provides a quantitative description of the
chances or likelihoods associated with various outcomes
• Probabilities are expressed as fractions or as decimals between
Zero and 1.
• Assigning a probability of Zero means that something can
never happen; a probability of 1 indicates that something will
always happen.
• The higher the probability of an event the more likely
something to happen.
• History
• A gambler’s dispute in 1654 lead to the creation of a
mathematical theory of probability by two French
mathematician, Blaise Pascal and Pierce Femat.
• The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times. The
problem was to decide whether or not to bet even money on the
occurrence of at least one double six during 24 times.
• This problem led to an exchange of letters between Pascal and
Fermat in which the fundamental principles of probability theory
were formulated for the first time.
• Although a few special problems on games of chance had been
solved by some Italian mathematicians in the 15th and 16th
centuries, no general theory was developed before this famous
correspondence.
• Before1812, probability theory was solely concerned with
developing a mathematical analysis of games of chance. Laplace
applied probabilistic ideas to many scientific and practical
problems.
 Concepts of Probability
• Experiment:
• An experiment is any work (activity) at the end of which one
can obtain some result (an outcome or an event). An
experiment can be of two types random or non-random.

• The term experiment refers to processes which result in

different possible outcomes or observations.

• If in an experiment all the possible outcomes are known in

advance and none of the outcomes are predicted with certainty,
then such an experiment is called a random experiment and the
outcomes as events or chance events.
 Experiment

Non-Random Random

Investment of money in a Bank

or in Shares of a company, is an
experiment.

If we invest the money in Shares

If we invest money in a Bank of a company, then the
as a fixed deposit, then the resultant amount is not known
in advance, which is not unique
resultant amount after a
and is uncertain.This activity
certain period is known in refers to a
advance, which is unique and random experiment
certain. This activity refers to
a non-random experiment.
• An experiment is the process by which an observation (or
measurement) is obtained.
• An event is an outcome of an experiment, usually denoted by
a capital letter.
– The basic element to which probability is applied

• Experiment: Record an age

– A: person is 30 years old
– B: person is older than 65
• Experiment: Toss a die
– A: observe an odd number
– B: observe a number greater than 2
• Non-random or deterministic models cover those situations,
where everything related to the situation is know with certainty
to the decision maker, when decision is to be made.

• In Random or probabilistic models, the totality of the

outcomes is known but it can not be certain, which particular
outcome will appear.
• So, there is always some uncertainty involved in decision
making.
• In deterministic models, frequency distribution or descriptive
statistics measures are used to arrive at a decision
• Similarly, in random situations, probability and probability
distributions are used to make decisions.
• Example
• What’s the probability of the coin landing on
Heads?
• Probability of an event = (Number of ways it
can happen) / (total number of outcomes)
• P(Head) = ½
 Sample Space
Sample Space: The Set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called the sample space for the
experiment

• Example: Rolling a die

1 E1
2
S ={E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6}
E2
S
3 E3 •E1 •E3
4 E4 •E5
5
E5 •E2 •E4 •E6
6 E6
 Example
The sample space of throwing a pair of dice is
Types Of Events

Mutually Exclusive events

Equally likely events

Independent events

Dependent Events
Collectively Exhaustive
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive, when both
cannot happen simultaneously in a single trial i.e. happening of one
event excludes the happening of another or all other events.
• Thus, if two events are mutually exclusive, the acceptance of one
precludes the acceptance of another.
• Events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the
same time when an experiment is performed.
• For example if a coin is tossed, then the event either head or tail will
come, both cannot be up at the same time. Such events are known as
Mutually Exclusive Events.
• Example
• There is one vacancy for a job and three persons A, B and C are
applied for it. Since only one of the three persons A or B or C will
be selected for the job, the events of selecting A or B or C are
mutually exclusive (disjoint).
 Basic Concepts
• Two events are mutually exclusive if, when
one event occurs, the other cannot, and vice
versa.
•Experiment: Toss a die Not Mutually
–A: observe an odd number Exclusive

–B: observe a number greater than 2

–C: observe a 6 B and C?
Mutually
–D: observe a 3 Exclusive B and D?
• Equally Likely Events
• Two or more events are said to be equally likely when each of
these has an equal chance to occur
• For example, in case of tossing of coin or throwing of die, all
the outcomes (Head or Tail; or 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) are expected
to occur for same number of times in long run.
• Independent Events
• Two or more events are said to be independent when the
outcome of one does not affect, and is not affected by, other.
• When two persons write an examination, the pass or failure of
one person is independent of pass or failure of another.
• Dependents events are those in which the occurrence or non-
occurrence of one event in any trial affects the probability of
the events in other trials.
• Example: Playing cards
 Basic Concepts
• An event is a collection of one or more simple
events.
S
•E1 •E3
•The die toss: A •E5
–A: an odd number B
–B: a number > 2 •E2 •E4 •E6

A ={E1, E3, E5}

B ={E3, E4, E5, E6}
 The Probability
of an Event
• The probability of an event A measures “how
often” A will occur. We write P(A).
• Suppose that an experiment is performed n
times. The relative frequency for an event A is

Number of times A occurs f


n n
 The Probability
of an Event
• P(A) must be between 0 and 1.
– If event A can never occur, P(A) = 0. If event A
always occurs when the experiment is performed,
P(A) =1.
• The sum of the probabilities for all simple
events in S equals 1.

• The probability of an event A is found

by adding the probabilities of all the
simple events contained in A.
• Three Types of Probability

• Classical Approach

• Relative Frequency Approach

• Subjective Approach
• Classical Probability
• The classical approach to probability is the oldest and
simplest. It originated in eighteenth century in problems
pertaining to games of chance, such as throwing of coins, dice
or deck of cards etc.
• Classical Probability defines the probability that an event will
occur as

• Classical probability is often called a priori probability

because if we keep using orderly examples such as fair coin,
unbiased dice, and a standard decks of cards, we can state in
advance ( a priori) without tossing a coin, rolling a die, or
drawing a card.
• There are six different outcomes.

What’s the probability of rolling a one?

• What’s the probability of rolling a one or a six?

 A card is drawn from a well-shuffled
Example pack of cards. What is
the Probability that it is a king card?
Solution:
With 52 cards in the deck that are equally likely to appear.
Total Number of Possible outcomes = 52
Number of favourable out comes = 4
Probability that it a king is = 4/52

In a box of 50 pens, 18 are known to be defective. What is the

probability that a pen selected at random from the box is
defective?
Solution:
Probability that a pen selected at random is defective = 18/50
Tickets are numbered from 1 to 100. They are well
shuffled and a ticket is drawn at random
What is the probability that the drawn ticket has
a) An even number?
b) The number 5 or a multiple of 5?
c) A number which is greater than 75?
d) A number which is a square?
 • Relative Frequency Approach
• In the 1800s, British statisticians, interested in a theoretical
foundation for calculating risk of loss in life insurance and
commercial insurance, began defining probabilities from
statistical data collected on births and deaths. This approach is
called the relative frequency approach.
• It defines probability as either
• The observed relative frequency of an event in a very large
number of trials or
• The proportion of times that event occurs in the long run when
conditions are stable
• This method uses the relative frequencies of past occurrence
as probabilities.
• We determine how often something has happened in the past
and use that figures to predict the probability that it will again
in the future.
• Example
• Suppose an insurance company knows from past actuarial data
that of all males 40 years old in a particular state, about 60 out
of every 100000 will die within a 1 year period.
• Using this method, the company estimates the probability of
death for that age group as 60/100000 = 0.006
• One of the difficulty with the relative frequency approach is
that people often use it without evaluating a sufficient number
of outcome
• Subjective Probability
• Subjective probabilities are based on the
beliefs of the person making the probabilities
assessment.
• Subjective probability can be defined as the
probability assigned to an event by an
individual, based on whatever evidence
available.
• This evidence may be in the form of relative
frequency past occurrence, or it may be just an
educated guess.
• Subjective Probability
• The subjective probability is defined as the probability
assigned to an event by an individual based on whatever
evidence available.
• Probability may be determined by a personal statement of how
likely an outcome is in a single trial or repetition of the same
experiment.
• Since subjective probabilities are based on personal judgment,
they are peculiar to the individual making the decision. The
probability statement depends upon the individual’s experience
and his familiarity with the facts of the case.
• Two decision makers with the same amount of information
would make different subjective probability estimates of the
occurrence of a particular event.
• What is the probability that a machinist randomly
selected from the polled group mildly supports the
package?
• What is the probability that an inspector randomly
selected from the polled group is undecided about
the package?
• What is probability that a worker (Machinist or
Inspector) randomly selected from the polled group
strongly or mildly supports the package?
• What types of probability estimates are these?
 Case Study
• The HR manager of a company has drafted a set of wage and
benefit demands to be presented to management. To get an
idea of worker support for the package, he randomly polls the
two largest groups of workers at his plant, the Machinists (M)
and the Inspectors (I). He polls 30 each group with the
following results

Opinion of Package Machinists Inspectors

Strongly Support 9 10
Mildly Support 11 3
Undecided 2 2
Mildly Oppose 4 8
Strongly Oppose 4 7
1. What is the probability that a machinist randomly selected from the
polled group mildly supports the package?
Solution:
Probability of Mildly support = Number of Machinists mildly support
class/ Total Number of Machinists Polled
=11/30

2. What is the probability that an inspector randomly selected from

the polled group is undecided about the package?
Solution:
P( Inspector undecided) = Number of inspectors in undecided class/
total number of inspectors class = 2/30=1/15

4. What types of probability estimates are these?

Solution: Relative
 3. What is probability that a worker (Machinist or Inspector)
randomly selected from the polled group strongly or mildly
supports the package?
• Solution
Opinion Combined
Strongly Support 19
Mildly Support 14
Undecided 4
Mildly Oppose 12
Strongly Oppose 11
• P ( Strongly or mildly support) = (19+14)/60=11/20
 Probability Rules

Some Commonly used Symbols, Definitions and Rules

P (A) = The probability of Event A happening

A single probability means that only one event can take

place. It is called a marginal or unconditional probability.

Example:
Suppose that 50 members of a school drew tickets to see
which student get a free trip to the National Rock Festival.
Any one of the student could calculate his or her chances
of winning as : 1/50 = 0.02
Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive events
 Addition Rule for non Mutually Exclusive events

Find out the probability getting a Heart or a king from a pack of

52 cards.
 Probabilities under conditions of statistical Independence

• When two events happen, the outcome of the first event may
or may not have an effect on the outcome of the second event.
That is, the events may be either dependent or independent.
• There are three types of probabilities under statistical
Independence
• Marginal: A marginal or unconditional probability is the
simple of the occurrence of an event.
• Joint Probability: The probability of two more independents
occurring together or in succession is the product of their
marginal probabilities
• Conditional Probabilities: It is the probability that a
second event will occur if a first event has already
happened
• A marginal or unconditional probability is the probability of
the occurrence of an event.

• For example, in the toss of coin, the outcome of each toss is an

event that is statistically independent of the outcomes of every
other toss of the coin
 Joint Probabilities under Statistical Independence
• The probability of two or more independent events occurring
together or in succession is the product of their marginal
probabilities

Joint Probabilities of Two Independent Events

P(AB) = P(A) × P(B)

• Where
• P(AB) = Probability of events A and B occurring together or in
succession
• P(A) = Probability of event A happening
• P (B) = Probability of event B happening
 Example:
• Suppose, in the toss of a coin twice, probability that in both
tosses the coin will turn up head by

• Solution: P(H1 and H2) = P(H1) × P(H2) = 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25

 Conditional Probabilities under Statistical Independence

Symbolically, conditional probability is written as

P(B|A) = P (B)
P(B|A) is read as the probability of event B given that A has
occurred

• For statistically independent events, the conditional probability

of event B given that A has occurred is simply the probability
of event B

Example: what is the probability that the second toss of a

fair coin will result in heads, given that heads resulted in the
first toss?
Solution: P (B|A) = 0.5
 Probabilities Under Statistical Independence

Type of Probability Symbol Formula

Marginal P(A) P(A)
Joint P(AB) P(A)×P(B)
Conditional P(B|A) P(B)
 Probabilities under conditions of Statistical dependence

• Statistical dependence exists when the probability of some

event is dependent on or affected by the occurrence of some
other event.
• There are three types of probabilities under statistical
dependence
• Marginal Probability: The Marginal probability of an event
under statistical dependence is the same as the marginal
probability of an event under statistical independence.
• Joint Probability
• Conditional Probability
• If A and B are dependent events, then their joint probability is
no longer equal to the product of their respective probabilities
 Conditional Probability for statistically
Dependent Events
• Under statistical dependence, the conditional probability of A,
given that event B has occurred

• Similarly, the conditional probability of B, given that event B

has occurred
 Example
• A Jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are
chosen without replacement. The probability of selecting a
black marble and then a white marble is 0.34, and the
probability of selecting a black marble on the first draw is
0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the
second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black?

• Solution: P(White|Black) = P( Black and White)/P(Black)=

0.34/0.47=72%
Example
Joint Probability for statistical Dependent Event
• P

P(BA) = P(B|A) × P(A)

P(AB) = P(A|B) × P(B)

 Example
 Two cards are drawn at random, one after another without
replacement from a pack of 52 cards. What is probability that
both cards are King
 Solution: A is drawing a king First, and Event B is drawing a
king second
 For the first card the chance of drawing a King is 4 out of 52
(there are 4 Kings in a deck of 52 cards):
 P(A) = 4/52
 But after removing a King from the deck the probability of the
2nd card drawn is less likely to be a King (only 3 of the 51
cards left are Kings):
 P(B|A) = 3/51
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = (4/52) x (3/51) = 12/2652 = 1/221
So the chance of getting 2 Kings is 1 in 221, or about 0.5%
 Try yourself
• A bag contains 2 blue ball and 3 red ball. Two balls are drawn
one after other without replacement. Find the probabilities that
both balls are blue.
 Case Study

• Department of Social Welfare has recently carried out a socio-

economic survey of a village. The information collected is
related to the gender of the respondent and level of education.
1000 respondent were surveyed. The results are presented in
the following table
•
Educational Qualification
Gender Undergraduate Graduate Total
Male 150 450 600
Female 150 250 400
Total 300 700 1000
• A respondent has been selected randomly, what is the
probability that
• The respondent will be undergraduate
• The respondent will be Graduate
• The respondent will be female
• These are the examples of unconditional Probability. They are
termed as unconditional because no condition is imposed on
any event