A new Future of the Sea?

A Take on the
Risk associated with Offshore Wind Farming
Zukunft Küste – Coastal Futures

Marcus Lange1, Kira Gee2, Andreas Kannen2 &

Benjamin Burkhard3
1 LOICZ IPO at GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,
2 GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht,

3 Ecology Centre at Kiel University, Germany

© Vestas Central Europe

Ecology Centre at Kiel University FTZ Westcoast Buesum

Drivers of change

• Reduction of CO2 –
emissions,

• Generation of additional
employment.

‘National Action Plan for

Renewables’ (Sept 09)
© DPA

Target:

Continous increase in share of Main pillar of Offshore Wind

renewable energies in future renewable => Farming
electricity consumption (30 % energy supply
by 2030).

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
 Drivers of change
Offshore Wind Farming - Capacity
Construction
Phase Potential Capacity

2010 – 2030 20.000 – 25.000 MW

Source: German national strategy for the use of

offshore wind power (2002; 2009)

25.564 MW
(4,5 MW pro Anlage)

Source: Burkhard 2009

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Marine polyculture + Offshore Wind Energy

- Offshore Wind Farming

- Fishery

- Marine Protected Areas

- Tourism

- Oil Extraction

- Coastal & Island Defense

- Shipping

and many more…

Source: BSH CONTIS Information System (2010), www.bsh.de

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

© GE WIND

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

© WWF-Canon/Michel Gunther

© GE WIND

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

© GE
WIND

© GE WIND

© MCA, GB

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

Crazy! Giant wind mills in

front of the Baltic coast

© GE WIND

Bild Journal 19.12.2003

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

Crazy – Giant wind mills

in front of the Baltic coast

© GE WIND

© Lange

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Offshore Wind Power as a new Player in the sea

Crazy – Giant wind mills

in front of the Baltic coast

© GE WIND

© Lange © Lange

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Uncertainty factors of risk analysis

Coastal and Major unknowns and uncertainties are shaped by dynamics of

Marine system the ‘coastal and marine system’ that are difficult or not to predict;

Lack of data No realtime data for the impacts of large scale offshore
windfarms exist (because only one farm in the German North
Sea is in operation so far);

Politics and The expansion of developments depends on the political will and
Economy investor support;

Individual Individual perceptions of risk shape the level of acceptance;

dimension Dynamics and consequences of human intervention can be
interpreted differently.

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
The Coastal Futures approach – a view of the whole

Inthe
In thesea
sea
Onland
On land

Abovesea
Above sea © Kannen, Lange & Burkhard

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Cumulative effects on seabirds

Example: Red- and black throated diver

Garthe & Mendel (2010)

© J.-O. Kriegs

Collision risk ? Or Attraction ?

Barrier effect ? Habitat loss ?

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Distribution of divers in the German North Sea

Garthe & Mendel (2010)

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Human activities and distribution of divers

Affected individuals

Cumulative: 4.168 ind.

OWF: 1.450 ind.

Shipping traffic: 2.718 ind.

National population *

National 18.500 ind.

Average:

* Source: Garthe et al. (2007);

Garthe & Mendel (2010)

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Perceived risks

Results of a survey in favour

of local residents
(West Coast)

44 % in favour
against (with confinements)

neutral /
Statements: no position

“Offshore wind farms upset nature and animals, never mind the visual
impacts”.

“Disappearance of the last remaining porpoises, pollution, even more dead

birds, danger of shipping accidents and oil spills.”

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Perceived risks and benefits

Frequency
Category (% of all
arguments)
Main arguments against offshore wind
Aesthetics of landscape and seascape 21.8
Nature conservation 15.1
Emotional arguments 7.6
Shipping safety 3.6
Main arguments in favour of offshore wind
regenerative/clean form of energy generation 23.3
Employment in the region 5.2
Climate change 0.2
Main unertainties with respect to offshore wind (undecided respondents)
Technological feasibility 4.6
Economic feasibility 4.4

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Regional economic effects
CumulatedCumulated employment
employment effects
effects of offshore
of offshore windenergy
wind energy ininthe
the'West
WestCoast'
Coastregion of SHof
region until 2030
Germany until
assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value
2030 assuming a maximum regional share of the wind energy value chain. chain

140000
25. 000 MW

120000
15. 000 MW
100000
Person Years (2000)

80000
2.000 MW
60000
installed Offshore Wind
Power capacity
40000

20000

-20000
Scenarios
Scenrio 'Little Implementation' 'Modest Implementation' 'High Implementation'

Investment wind energy O&M wind energy Income multiplier wind Conentional electricity replaced
Income multiplier conv. electricity Consumption change Income multiplier consumption Net effect

Source: Hohmeyer (2010)

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Regional economic effects

Just anchoring parts of the value chain in the region can lead to positive
employment effects;

The greatest risk from an economic perspective for the West Coast is to not
make use of the opportunity presented by offshore wind;

Targeted oriented policy (local, regional)

is required to reduce uncertainties for
investors, as well as decidedness in
planning to reduce delays.

© REpower
Systems

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Comprehensive risk analysis
… as an essential task for science

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Conclusions

We came to the conclusion that we need to apply a systemic approach to assess the
complex risks associated with Offshore Wind Farming.

Licensing of offshore wind parks should therefore be made on the basis of a multi-
perspective analysis of risk based on an assumption of all planed wind farm projects.

A comprehensive risk analysis helps to overcome problems arising from uncertainties

in many parts of the “Social-ecological coastal system - Offshore Wind Power”.

If we want to increase acceptance of Offshore Wind Farming, we need to reduce

personal uncertainties of local residents (by increasing the knowledge base) but also
take seriously the concerns and values of stakeholders.

The Coastal Futures approach has the potential to strengthen the information base for
decision making in the context of ICZM and Marine Spatial Planning.

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Thanks for your Attention !
Synthesis Report

Lange, M., Burkhard, B., Garthe, S., Gee, K.,

Kannen, A., Lenhart, H. & Windhorst, W.
(2010):
Analyzing Coastal and Marine Changes:
Offshore Wind Farming as a Case Study.
Zukunft Küste - Coastal Futures Synthesis
Report. LOICZ Research & Studies No. 36.
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, 212 pp.

www.loicz.org © REpower Systems AG

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010
Thanks for your Attention !

www.coastal-futures.org

© REpower Systems AG

September 21st – 23rd , 2010, London, UK

Ecology Cantre at Kiel
University FTZ Westcoast Buesum LITTORAL 2010