Weather forecasting and

Monsoon
 What is weather?
• Temperature
• Air pressure
• Wind speed
• Humidity
• Cloudiness
• Precipitation
 Different ranges of forecasts
The forecasts are classified in various categories. These categories have mainly defined on
the basis of temporal coverage of the forecasts viz. now-cast, short range, medium range,
extended range, seasonal scale and long range forecasts.

The forecasting of the weather for the next six hours is generally referred as now-casting.

The forecasts delivered for a lead time of a day or three are called as short-range forecasts.

Medium-range forecasts are made for periods covering 4 to 10 days ahead

The extended range forecasts are made for periods of two weeks to a month.

Seasonal forecast refers the prediction of mean weather for seasonal scale.

In the long range category, the time scale is more than a year.
• In short and medium range, • Seasonal and extended
local forecasts are most range forecasts are
valuable for high impact different from weather
weather phenomena such forecasts since it involves
as cyclone, thunderstorm, the prediction of the
tornado etc which may deviations from the
results in loss of life and seasonal climate.
property due to wide-
spread/heavy rainfall and
strong wind.
Schematic diagram for skill of different scale forecasts with forecast lead time.
 Forecasting methods
• Synoptic
• Group of people or a person use his weather knowledge
• Persistence
• Analogy
• Climatology
• Chart analysing (keep eye on approaching weather systems)
• Statistical
• Use correlation between variables (may/may not be related )
• Numerical Weather prediction
• Simulate weather by solving physics equations
Numerical Weather Prediction:
Governing Equations (Primitive Equations)
Numerical Weather Prediction:
Computers the Key
• These equations are not easily solved (in fact,
impossible without approximations) by human
beings
• They must be solved by computers!
• Equations are solved at individual point locations
aligned in a grid structure
• These equations are imperfect and are highly
sensitive to the accuracy of the observations that
are used to plug into the equations (this is known
as initialization)
Numerical Weather Prediction:
History
• All started in post-WWI central Europe
• Lewis Fry Richardson made the first 6-hour forecast for
two points – took 6 weeks to produce
• Process modified/tweaked to improve results – first
computer forecast was made in 1950 – called a
computer model
• To complete – 24-hour forecast took 24 hours (forecast
barely kept up with the weather)
• US military made improvements over time through the
‘50’s and 60’s and the rest is history..
Monsoon
What is monsoon
The term technically describes seasonal reversals of
wind direction caused by temperature differences
between the land and sea breeze, creating zones of
high and low pressure over land in different seasons.
Why Seasons occur
World Monsoon regions
Indian Monsoons

June to September October to December

Principal axis of monsoon
Branches of Southwest Monsoon
Arabian Sea Branch BOB Branch
 Methods of Predicting Indian Monsoon Rainfall

 IMD utilizes statistical method for making seasonal predication of

the Indian monsoon rainfall.

 Studies of historical data sets, over the years, have brought out
several predictors for the monsoon rainfall forecasting.

 The most commonly used statistical technique for seasonal

predication is the linear regression analysis.

 IMD has also started using dynamic model forecasts for proving
southwest monsoon rainfall.
 Prediction of Indian summer monsoon

Since 1988, the Indian Meteorological Department has been issuing

forecast based on 16-parameter power regression and
parametric models.
List of 16 parameters
El Nino (same year) (Nino 1 + 2)
El Nino (previous year) (Nino 1 + 2)
South Indian Ocean SST (Feb. + March)
East Coast India temperature (March)
Arabian Sea SST (Nov. + Dec. + Jan.)
Central India temperature (May)
N H Temperature (Jan. + Feb.)
Darwin pressure tendency (April–Jan)
N H Pressure (Jan. to April)
Southern Oscillation Index (Mar to May)
Indian Ocean Equatorial Pressure (Jan to May)
Europe Pressure Gradient (January)
Argentina pressure (April)
50 hPa East–West Ridge Extension (Jan. + Feb.)
Himalayan Snow Cover (Jan. to Mar.)
Eurasian Snow Cover (Dec.)
El-Nino
• El-Niño is characterized by unusually warm
temperatures and La-Niña by unusually cool
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Source Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
 El Nino impact global circulation
• The trade winds get weaker/reverse
• Warm water and clouds shift towards east
• Asia remains dry
La Nina
Some other terms
• Monsoon Onset
• Monsoon trough
• Monsoon Depression
• IOD
• MJO
MJO prediction during monsoon
Where we can look for forecasts
• imd.gov.in
• mol.tropmet.res.in
• ncmrwf
• skymetweather.com
• ogimet
• cpc
• BOM
• JAMSTEK
• ECMWF …..etc
Questions ???
Thanks