Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Operations Management
William J. Stevenson
8th edition
3-2 Forecasting
FORECASTING
3-3 Forecasting
FORECAST:
A statement about the future value of a variable of interest such
as demand.
Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an
organization
Accounting, finance
Human resources
Marketing
MIS
Operations
Product / service design
3-4 Forecasting
Uses of Forecasts
Timely
Reliable Accurate
l s e
g fu u
i n Written to
n s y
a
M
e Ea
3-7 Forecasting
“The forecast”
Types of Forecasts
Judgmental Forecasts
Executive opinions
Sales force opinions
Consumer surveys
Outside opinion
Delphi method
Opinions of managers and staff
Achieves a consensus forecast
3-10 Forecasting
Forecast Variations
Figure 3.1
Irregular
variation
Trend
Cycles
90
89
88
Seasonal variations
3-12 Forecasting
Naive Forecasts
Naïve Forecasts
Simple to use
Virtually no cost
Easily understandable
Moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing
3-16 Forecasting
Moving Averages
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Weighted moving average – More recent values in a
series are given more weight in computing the
forecast.
3-17 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average –
n
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period
1 40
2 41
3 42 123/3 41
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
3-18 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average – n
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42
5 ?
6 ?
3-19 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average – n
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44
6 ?
3-20 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average – n
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44 128/3 42.67 43
6 ?
3-21 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average – n
A i
MAn = i=1
n
Period Sales Average Forecast for next period Actual
1 40 41
2 41 42
3 42 123/3 41 42
4 42 125/3 41.67 44
5 44 128/3 42.67 43
6 43 129/3 43 43
3-22 Forecasting
Actual
MA5
47
45
43
41
39
37
MA3
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
n
Ai
MAn = i=1
n
3-23 Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing
Actual
50
.4
.1
45
Demand
40
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period
3-36 Forecasting
Parabolic
Exponential
Growth
3-37 Forecasting
Ft
Ft = a + bt
Calculating a and b
n (ty) - t y
b =
n t 2 - ( t) 2
y - b t
a =
n
3-39 Forecasting
t y
2
W eek t S a le s ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
2
t = 15 t = 55 y = 812 ty = 2 4 9 9
2
( t) = 2 2 5
3-40 Forecasting
812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5
y = 143.5 + 6.3t
3-41 Forecasting
Associative Forecasting
X Y Computed
7 15
relationship
2 10
6 13 50
4 15 40
14 25 30
15 27 20
16 24
10
0
12 20 0 5 10 15 20 25
14 27
20 44
15 34
7 17
A straight line is fitted to a set of sample points.
3-43 Forecasting
Forecast Accuracy
Actual forecast
MAD =
n
2
( Actual forecast)
MSE =
n -1
Example 10
MAD= 2.75
MSE= 10.86
MAPE= 1.28
3-46 Forecasting
Control chart
A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors
Used to detect non-randomness in errors
Tracking Signal
•Tracking signal
–Ratio of cumulative error to MAD
Tracking signal =
(Actual-forecast)
MAD
Bias – Persistent tendency for forecasts to be
Greater or less than actual values.
3-49 Forecasting
Forecast horizon
3-50 Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing
3-51 Forecasting
Workload/Scheduling
SSU9
United Airlines example