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A Tale of Nine Countries

CH
འབུག་ཡུལ་

বাংলােদশ

‫افغانستان‬ ެ‫ދިވެހިރާްއޖޭގ‬

ශ්‍රී ලංකා नेपाल


Development in India- A
South Asian Perspective
What the indicators say

HDI Trends | Life Expectancy | Literacy | GDP


per capita | Income inequality | Gender
disparities | Environmental performance |
Poverty | Dependency ratio | Population growth
| Nutrition
A Pinch of Salt
Two
A Tale of Nine Countries
Trends in Human Development
Index (HDI)

China is ranked 92 | India is ranked 134


W h ithLife
e r M Expectancy
e d ica lA d va n ce s?
Adult Literacy
GDP- Rank 4
GDP Per Capita- Rank 128
More hands to work or too many mouths to feed? Will
Population Growth
the demographic dividend help India catch up later?
Skill-biased technological change since 1991
might be responsible for inequality levels
remainingIncome Inequality
high in spite of high GDP growth.
Gender Inequality
Nutrition
World Hunger
Index
Dependency
Environmental Performance
Index

http://epi.yale.edu/Countries
To Cut a Long Story Short
• South Asia has no country in the very high
or high range of HDI. China is the highest
ranked at 92.
• Reasons- Internal strife in Sri Lanka,
Afghanistan and Pakistan, relatively
nascent growth in India and China,
modest potential in Bhutan, Nepal,
Bangladesh, and Maldives.
• Within South Asia, India is ranked in the
bottom half of almost all parameters.
• India’s high GDP is not reflected in
development statistics.
• The declining population growth rate in
India should give her a demographic
dividend in the long run.
To Cut a Short Story Shorter
Current State
The Need for MDGs
Millennium Development
Goals
No Millennium Development Goals

1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger


2 Achieve universal primary education
3 Promote gender equality and empower women
4 Reduce child mortality
5 Improve maternal health
6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7 Ensure environmental sustainability
8 Develop a global partnership for development
Millennium Development Goal
Audit
Goal 1- Eradicate Extreme Poverty and
Hunger
TARGET: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the

proportion of people whose income is less than one


dollar a day.
On - track Fast - Track Slow - Track

Andhra Pradesh Arunachal | Assam | Goa Bihar


| Gujarat | J&K |
Delhi
Karnataka Himachal | Kerala |
Manipur | Mizoram | Haryana
Punjab Nagaland | Sikkim |
Tamil Nadu | Tripura |
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan West Bengal | A&N Maharashtra
Islands | Chandigarh | Orissa
DDNH | Daman & Diu |
Lakshadweep | Uttar Pradesh
Pondicherry
Status of the States
On - track Fast - track Slow - track

Divide lesser
Urban - rural divide greater
Poverty Estimates- India
Ta rg e t: H a lve , b e tw e e n 1 9 9 0 a n d 2 0 1 5 , th e
p ro p o rtio n
o f p e o p le w h o su ffe r fro m h u n g e r.

On - Track
Goal 2- Achieve Universal Primary
Education
Ensure that , by 2015 , children everywhere , boys and girls alike ,
will be able to complete
a full course of primary schooling
Status of Indian States in 2004 - 05 on GER
Ratio – Female
On Track Fast Track Slow Track

Himachal Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir


Uttaranchal Chhatisgarh Punjab
Uttar Pradesh Sikkim Haryana

Rajasthan Mizoram Bihar

Gujarat Manipur Jharkhand

Maharashtra Tripura Nagaland

Karnataka Meghalaya

Tamil Nadu

Kerala

Andhra Pradesh

Goa

West Bengal

Assam

Arunachal Pradesh


Status of Indian States in 2004-05 on GER Ratio – Male

On Track Fast Track Slow Track

Himachal Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir


Uttaranchal Chhatisgarh Punjab
Uttar Pradesh Sikkim Haryana

Maharashtra Mizoram Nagaland

Karnataka Manipur

Tamil Nadu Tripura

Kerala Meghalaya

Andhra Pradesh Orissa

Goa Arunachal Pradesh

West Bengal

Assam

Bihar

Jharkhand


Status as of 2004-05
Goal 3- Promote Gender
Equality and Empower Women
Target : Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary
education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no
later than 2015.
• Participation of women in employment remains significantly less than
that of men and while the gap will reduce, the disparity is highly
likely to remain till 2015
• Literacy gender parity index of the youth, tends to exceed 1 by
2015 suggesting attainment of gender parity in youth literacy by
2015.
• Trends show gender parity in primary and secondary levels of
educations can be attained by 2015. Currently on track on
primary level enrolment:
– In Primary education the Gender Parity Indices ratio (Gross Enrollment
Ratio) has gone up from 0.76 in 1990‐91 to 0.94 in 2006‐07, in
secondary education the increase is from 0.60 in 1990‐91 to 0.82 in
N o te : 2006‐07 and in higher education it is from 0.54 to 0.70 during the
To sta n d a rd izesame
th e eperiod.
ffe cts o f th e p o p u la tio n stru ctu re o f th e a p p ro p ria te a g e g ro u p s, th e
G e n d e r Pa rity In d e x ( G P I) o f th e G ro ss E n ro lm e n t R a tio ( G E R ) fo r e a ch le ve lo f e d u ca tio n
is u se d i. e . G P I( G E R ) = G E R ( F e m a le ) / G E R ( M a le ) . A GPI of 1 indicates parity between
th e se xe s o r n o g e n d e r d isp a rity. A G P I th a t va rie s b e tw e e n 0 a n d 1 typ ica lly m e a n s a
d isp a rity in fa vo u r o f m a le s; w h e re a s a G P I g re a te r th a n 1 in d ica te s a d isp a rity in fa vo u r
The ratio of literate
women to men in the age
group 15‐24 years tends to
exceed 1 by 2015, implying
attainment of gender parity in
literacy by 2015.

Share of Women in Wage Employment In the Non‐Agricultural Sector

This measures the degree to which labour markets are open to women in
industry and service sectors.
Women employment in the nonagricultural sector is likely to reach
only 24% by 2015.
In the Lok Sabha (as on 27/1/2010) there are 59 (10.8%) women members
out of 545. As on 27/1/2010 there are 21 women members (9.0%) out of
234 in the Rajya Sabha.
Overall percentage of lady parliamentarians stands at 10.3%.
Goal 4- Reduce Child
Mortality
Target : Reduce by two thirds , between 1990 and 2015 , the
under - five mortality rate

 The observed U5MR for 2005‐06 is 74.6 per ‘000 live births, and the
projected U5MR for 2015 is about 70 per ‘000 live births.

 6 States out of all the 30 States (other than the UTs) namely, Goa,
Haryana, J&K, Kerala,
Sikkim and Tamil Nadu, are on fast‐track towards achieving their
targets.

 Delhi, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura, are just on‐track.

 All other States tend are on a slow track.



 The Infant Mortality Rate stood at 192 during 1971, 114 in the year
1980 and 57 in 2006 and 53 in 2008. A decline in IMR has been noticed
both for males and females during the period with it being more in case
of males.


Fast - On - Track
Track
Comparison of 2005-06 data with respect to 1992-
93 data
Goal 5- Improve Maternal
Health
Target : Reduce by three - quarters , between 1990 and 2015 , the
maternal mortality ratio
Target to achieve
109 per 100,000
live births by
2015, India tends
to fall short by
about 26 points as
it tends to reach
MMR of about 135
per 100,000 live
births in 2015.
Fast - Marginally Off - Completely Off -
Track Track Track
Goal 5- Improve Maternal
Health
Going by the present rate of In terms of percentage of
coverage increase, 7 States deliveries attended by skilled
namely, Andhra Pradesh, Goa, personnel projected
Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, for the year 2015 on the basis of
Sikkim and Tamil Nadu are existing trend, 4 of the North‐
likely to reach universal East States, namely,
coverage or close to it by Arunachal Pradesh (41%), Assam
the year 2015. (46%), Meghalaya (32%) and Nagaland
(34%) are likely to finish far
short of universality.
For the other States, shortfall from universal coverage tends to
vary from 10 to 70 percentage points.

Apart from these States, the other States which are also lagging
behind and are likely to remain so in 2015 if they continue to
move at the pace of their historic rates, are Bihar(37%), Madhya
Pradesh (39%), Uttar Pradesh(37%) and Uttarakhand(45%).
The Rural – Urban Gap

• The rural – urban gap in coverage in 2005‐06 was of the order of
36 percentage points, urban coverage (75.2%) being almost
double of that of rural (39.1%).


• The gap in 2007‐08 has slightly narrowed down with rural
coverage of 43.4% against urban coverage of 75.8%.


• Not all the States, which are tending to attain more than 90%
coverage in deliveries attended by skilled personnel by 2015,
has rural‐urban gap in coverage less than 10 percentage
points. The rural‐urban gap is small in 2005‐06 in the States of
Goa (0.8 percent point), Kerala (3.3 percent point) and Tamil
Nadu (5.8 percent point).


• The other States where overall attainment in 2015 is likely to
Goal 6- Combat HIV/AIDS,
Malaria, and TB
Target : Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the
spread of HIV / AIDS
Spread of HIV / AIDS in India has shown a downward
trend - from 2 . 73 million ( 0 . 45 %) PLHA in 2002 , the
number has declined to 2 . 31 million ( 0 . 34 %) by 2007 .

Major Areas New Areas of Prevalence


( declining )
In states such as AP, Gujarat, Assam, Karnataka, MP, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland,
Orissa, Rajasthan etc. no. of deaths due to Malaria have decreased in 2009
compared to that of 2006.
Though incidence has declined ( 1.74 in 2005 to 1.52 in 2009 ) but percentage of
deaths hasn’t declined.
Goal 7- Ensure Environmental
Sustainability
Target : Integrate the principles of sustainable development
into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of
environmental resources .
Decline in forest Increase in forest
cover cover

Overall Marginal
Increase
Goal 7- Other Performance
Measures
• CO2 emissions- 20% increase in per capita emissions from
1990-2006. Still lower than developed countries, but
because of population.

• Ozone- Steady decline in CFC consumption


• Energy Efficiency- Decrease in energy consumption / GDP


• Drinking water- 2015 target achieved but sustainability is


an issue

• Sanitation- Households without sanitation still over 50%


• Slum-dwellers- India has 63% of South Asia’s slum


dwellers. Steady increase in absolute number of slum
Goal 8- Develop Global Partnership for
Development
• India has emerged as one of the major development partner for promoting
technoeconomic
 and intellectual assistance to various developed countries.
• India is keen to join with other countries to benefit the third countries, this
cooperation is likely to play a major role as finances and technology are
combined for optimizing returns on development expenditure.
• The exponential growth of the Indian telecom sector has been mainly due
to the positive and corrective policies consistently pursued by the
Indian Government.
• The overall tele‐density, which was only 0.67 per 100 population in 1991,
had increased to cover almost 4 persons out of 10 of the country’s
population in March 2009.
• An increase in tele-density of 43.50 per hundred population was seen at
the end of September 2009 with rural tele‐density of 18.46 and urban
tele‐density of 102.79 per hundred population against a tele‐density of
36.98 per hundred population at the end of March 2009 with rural tele‐
density of 15.11 and urban tele‐density of 88.84 per hundred
population.
• The increase in tele‐density has been due to very high increase in
telephone connections in the urban circles of most of the States. The
tele-density in the urban areas of the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar,
Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Rajasthan apart from the Telephone circles of
North‐East‐I, Kolkata, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai is more than 100,
which signifies more than one telephones per head in these areas.
Increase in telephone density in India over the
years
Three lessons from comparison
of development experience
• Delivery of public services- India has a
dysfunctional PDS and a corrupt
administration which implies only a
fraction of development-oriented funds
are used for the intended purpose.
• Inclusive growth- China, despite its high
population, does better on most
development indicators because of the
stage of its development process and
because the state’s philosophy is one of
redistribution of wealth.
• Education- Could be a panacea for a lot of
development problems and will reduce the
burden on the government.
Sources
• The data on development indicators
have been taken from World Bank’s
and the UN’s statistical tables.
• The information on MDGs has been
taken from the MDG status report
published by the Central Statistical
Organization, GoI

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