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BAB V.

MODEL FUNGSIONAL SELISIH


Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia

KUADRAT TERKECIL & TEKNIK HITUNG


PENJALARAN KESALAHAN
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development

(MK. Hitung Perataan/ HD- 1315 / 3 SKS)


Disampaikan pada Selasa 15 Mei 2018
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

Dosen:
Research Associate

Widodo Setiyo Pranowo


NIP. 19750905 200212 1 003
Semester III – 2018 – S1 Angkatan XXXVIII
Jurusan Teknik Hidrograf
Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut
Nama Widodo Setiyo Pranowo
Jabatan
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia Peneliti Madya IVb Bid. Oseanograf
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

Satker Pusat Riset Kelautan, Badan Riset & SDM KKP


Pendidikan Dr.-Ing (Tekno-Matematika, Univ. Bremen, Jerman)
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

M.Si (Geofsika & Meteorologi, Inst. Teknologi Bandung)


ST (Ilmu Kelautan Univ. Diponegoro, Semarang)

Pengalaman - Institut Teknologi Bandung


Mengajar - Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut
(2003- - Sekolah Staf & Komando (SESKO) TNI
sekarang) - Universitas Padjajaran
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

- Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofsika

Organisasi - anggota American Geophysical Union (AGU) sejak 2008


Research Scientist

Profesional - anggota (pasif) European Geoscience Union (EGU) sejak 2010


- anggota Ikatan Sarjanan Oseanograf Indonesia (ISOI) 2011
- anggota Himpunan Peneliti Indonesia (HIMPENINDO) 2013

Kontak 082 111 637 144


widodo.pranowo[at]kkp.go.id, widodo.pranowo[at]gmail.com
Ph.D Thesis Adaptive Mesh Refnement Applied to Tsunami Modeling: TsunaFLASH
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Associate
Marine Research Center
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id

yang bersifat rutin


II. PENJALARAN KESALAHAN

parameter dalam berbagai macam model


fungsional terutama berkaitan dengan hal-hal
Menghitung besarnya kesalahan atau ketelitian
Tujuan Instruksional
Tujuan Instruksional
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia

V. TEKNIK-TEKNIK HITUNG PERATAAN


KUADRAT TERKECIL
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development

1) Menghitung menggunakan teknik-teknik


hitung perataan kuadrat terkecil
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

2) Memilih teknik-teknik hitung perataan


Marine Research Center
Research Associate

kuadrat terkecil dalam penggunaannya


untuk memecahkan suatu masalah
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Associate
Marine Research Center
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id

STANDAR

komponen

pengamatan
standar dan menggambarkannya

3) Elips standar dengan kualitas data


1) Menghitung komponen-komponen elips
VI. ELIPS STANDAR DAN LENGKUNGAN

2) Menghubungkan hasil hitungan komponen-


Tujuan Instruksional
Sebuah Model Fungsional Terdiri dari
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id
Operasi Perhitungan Matematis:
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development

a) Penambahan & Pengurangan


b) Perkalian & Pembagian
c) Perkalian Pangkat
d) Gabungan dari Perkalian, Pembagian, Penambahan,
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Pengurangan, & Perkalian Pangkat


Marine Research Center

e) Fungsi lain: Fungsi Sinus


Research Associate

f) Fungsi lain:
Penurunan persamaan menggunakan Turunan Parsial

Pada Proses Operasi perhitungannya dengan melibatkan


berbagai macam data input, akan menghasilkan
penjalaran kesalahan (error propagation)
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Monte Carlo, Monaco


Monte Carlo
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Proble-ma(tema)tika

dengan cara melakukan Simulasi


di Kehidupan Nyata yang dicari solusinya
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id




reserved.
Faster

Copyright 2008 Health


Administration Press. All rights
being studied

More practical
More cost efective
Less dangerous environment
• Simulation versus the “real world”
• Process of modeling reality to gain a better
understanding of the phenomena or system
Simulation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id








Proof

reserved.
Training

Copyright 2008 Health


Administration Press. All rights
Discovery

Education
Prediction
Performance

Entertainment

10-11
Types of Simulation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

reserved.
Copyright 2008 Health
Administration Press. All rights
– Collect data

• Model validation
• Model development

– Build computer model

• Simulate and analyze output


– Develop the conceptual model
– Defne the problem or question
Simulation Process
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Simulation Process
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Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

Model Development Model Validation Simulation and


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

• Problem/ question Analyses


defnition • Quantitative
• Develop conceptual comparison • Replication
model • Expert opinion • Data collection,
• Collect data storage, and
• Build computer organization
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

model • Analysis
Research Scientist

Copyright 2008 Health


Administration Press. All rights
reserved.
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Monte Carlo Simulation
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Model the output of a


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system by using input


variables that could not be
known exactly
• Random variables (those that are uncertain
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

and have a range of possible values)


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characterized by a probability distribution


• Solution is a distribution of possible outcomes
that can be characterized statistically

Copyright 2008 Health


Administration Press. All rights
reserved.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

reserved.
Copyright 2008 Health
Administration Press. All rights
Simple Monte Carlo Example
Distribution of Charges
Simple Monte Carlo Example
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Fifty percent of the


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

clinic’s patients do not


pay for their services,
and it is equally likely
that they will pay or not
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

pay.
Research Scientist

• The payment per patient is modeled by:


Probability of payment × Charges/patient = Payment/patient

• A deterministic solution to this problem would be:


0.5 × $70/patient = $35 per patient

Copyright 2008 Health


Administration Press. All rights
reserved.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

per-Komputasi-an
Monte Carlo di Kehidupan
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

S=

much fewer numbers.


“Monte Carlo” solution:
i =1
10000000

… And we may need to sum


�a
i

i=
And have nothing but a pen and paper.
Suppose we are given the problem of calculating
Monte Carlo Solution
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

uj,k-1
uj,k
uj-1,k

Uj+1,k
Uj,k+1
u j ,k = 14 [u j 1,k  u j 1,k  u j ,k 1  u j ,k 1 ]
• For the 2D problem via centered diference:

j = spatial
k = temporal
Finite Diference Approx.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Problem: calculate
s 1s k
ij

=
1
Hˆ {s 1 ,..., s N } =  J �s is j

2D lattice with 10x10 sites:


Z s1 ...s L

Number of terms = 2100=1030



Example: Classical Ising model

On a supercomputer that does 1015


summations/sec, this takes 107 years…
s 1s k e  b Hˆ {s 1 ...s L }
Statistical mechanics
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

di Kehidupan
Proble-ma(tema)tika

per-Survei-an/Pengukuran
What is Monte Carlo Methods?
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Monte Carlo methods are a branch of mathematics that


involves the stochastic solution of problems. Monte
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Carlo is another name for statistical sampling methods of


great importance to physics and computer science.
• Experimental approach to solving a problem. (“Method
of Statistical Trials”)
• When the analyst is trying to use a Monte Carlo
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

approach to estimate a physically measurable variable,


the approach breaks itself down into two steps:
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1. Devise a numerical experiment whose expected value


would correspond to the desired measurable value x .
2. Run the problem to determine an estimate to this variable.
We call the estimate x̂ .
• Many (probably most) Monte Carlo problems are of the
“Hit or Miss” category, which fnds the probability of
some event occurring. (e.g., hitting a straight flush,
neutron escaping through a surface, etc.) 23
What is Monte Carlo Methods?
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Applications of Monte Carlo Method:


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

– Evaluating integrals of arbitrary functions of 6+


dimensions
– Predicting future values of stocks
– Solving partial diferential equations
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

– Sharpening satellite images


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– Modeling cell populations


– Finding approximate solutions to NP-hard
problems
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
What is Monte Carlo Methods?
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• The frst step can either be very simple or very


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complicated, based on the particulars features of


the problem.
• If the problem is itself stochastic, the
experimental design step is very simple: Let the
mathematical simulation simulate the problem.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

This is an analog simulation, since the calculation


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is a perfect analog to the problem.


• Lucky for us, the transport of neutral particles is a
stochastic situation. All we HAVE to do to get a
guess at a measurable efect from a transport
situation is to simulate the stochastic "decisions"
that nature makes.
25
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
What is Monte Carlo Methods?
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• For processes that are NOT inherently stochastic, the


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experimental design is more complex and generally


requires that the analyst:
1. Derive an equation (e.g., heat transfer equation,
Boltzmann transport equation) from whose solution
an estimate of the efect of interest can be inferred.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

2. Develop a Monte Carlo method to solve the equation.


Research Scientist

26
History of Monte Carlo Method
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia • In 1738, Swiss physicist and mathematician Daniel Bernoulli
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Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

published Hydrodynamica which laid the basis for the


kinetic theory of gases: great numbers of molecules moving in all
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directions, that their impact on a surface causes the gas pressure


that we feel, and that what we experience as heat is simply the
kinetic energy of their motion.

• In 1859, Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell formulated the


distribution of molecular velocities, which gave the proportion of
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

molecules having a certain velocity in a specifc range. This was the


frst-ever statistical law in physics. Maxwell used a simple thought
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experiment: particles must move independent of any chosen


coordinates, hence the only possible distribution of velocities must
be normal in each coordinate.

• In 1864, Ludwig Boltzmann, a young student in Vienna, came


across Maxwell’s paper and was so inspired by it that he spent much
of his long, distinguished, and tortured life developing the subject
further.
History of Monte Carlo Method
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
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Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Credit for inventing the Monte Carlo method is shared by


Stanislaw Ulam, John von Neuman and Nicholas Metropolis.
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• Ulam, a Polish born mathematician, worked for John von


Neumann on the Manhattan Project. Ulam is known for designing
the hydrogen bomb with Edward Teller in 1951. In a thought
experiment he conceived of the MC method in 1946 while
pondering the probabilities of winning a card game of solitaire.
• Ulam, von Neuman, and Metropolis developed algorithms for
computer implementations, as well as exploring means of
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

transforming non-random problems into random forms that


would facilitate their solution via statistical sampling. This work
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transformed statistical sampling from a mathematical curiosity to


a formal methodology applicable to a wide variety of problems. It
was Metropolis who named the new methodology after the
casinos of Monte Carlo. Ulam and Metropolis published a paper
called “The Monte Carlo Method” in Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 44 (247), 335-341, in 1949.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• How to evaluate integral of f(x)?


Solving Integration Problems via Statistical Sampling:
Monte Carlo Approximation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• Can approximate using another function g(x)


Integration Approximation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

expected value
• Can approximate by taking the average or
Integration Approximation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• Estimate the average by taking N samples


Integration Approximation
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id



and b
N = number of samples
Im = Monte Carlo estimate

x1, x2, …, xN are uniformly distributed random numbers between a


Monte Carlo Integration
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Monte Carlo Integration
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id



estimate it.

the integral is also approximated by the sum.


• We have the defnition of expected value and how to

To simplify the integral, we can substitute g(x) = f(x)p(x).


Since the expected value can be expressed as an integral,
Monte Carlo Integration
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id


from each other.

Variance proportional to 1/N


• The variance describes how much the sampled values vary
Variance
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• Need 4X samples to halve the error


• Standard Deviation proportional to 1 / sqrt(N)
• Standard Deviation is just the square root of the variance
Variance
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

noise
• Problem:
– Variance (noise) decreases slowly
– Using more samples only removes a small amount of
Variance
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

variance

– Stratifed Sampling
– Importance Sampling

– Quasi-random Sampling
– Metropolis Random Mutations
• There are several ways to reduce the
Variance Reduction
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id



function
Idea: use more samples in important regions of the

If function is high in small areas, use more samples there


Importance Sampling
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• Want g/p to have low variance


• Choose a good function p similar to g:
Importance Sampling
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id




practice
Partition S into smaller domains Si

Example: jittering for pixel sampling


Evaluate integral as sum of integrals over Si

Often works much better than importance sampling in


Stratifed Sampling
(f) Fungsi:
Mendapatkan persamaan menggunkan Turunan Parsial
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
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Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Metode umum untuk mendapatkan persamaan yang


mengandung penjalaran kesalahan adalah melibatkan total
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dari perbedaan dari suatu fungsi (the total diferential of a


function).
• misal z = f(w, x, y, ...) dimana variabel w, x, y, .... Harus
berupa variabel bebas !
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

• Maka persamaan total perbedaanya (total diferential) :


 f   f   f 
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dz =  dw   dx   dy  ...


 w   x   y 
• Perlakukan dw = w sebagai nilai kesalahan dari w, demikian
juga dengan fungsi diferensial yang lain dz, dx, dy, ....
• Nilai numerik dari turunan parsial adalah dievaluasi
menggunakan nilai rerata dari w, x, y, ....
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

2
z =
f
w

 w 
 f 
2
w 

2
f
x

 x 
 f 
x 

2
f
y

2
Menggunakan simpangan baku:


• Hasilnya secara umum kemudian menjadi:

y  ...

 y 

 f 
2
Menggunakan pererataan nilai kesalahan:

2
z =   w    x    y  ...
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

lebih banyak lagi tentang


penjalaran kesalahan untuk
 “Turunan Parsial” (Partial Derivatives)
Mari Kita belajar lebih lanjut atau
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

x
konstanta.

=
dx 
F ( x, y, z ,...) dF ( x, y, z...) 
Turunan Parsial.
Penjalaran Kesalahan.

• Turunan parsial terhadap variabel

 y , z...const
yang terkait dengan variabel, dimana
variabel lainnya diperlakukan sebagai
tertentu adalah turunan biasa dari fungsi
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

x
F
= 2xyz 3

y
F
2
F ( x, y, z ) = x yz

=x z
2 3
3

z
F 2
dari Turunan Parsial

= x y3z 2
Contoh Penjalaran Kesalahan
Formula Penjalaran Kesalahan
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
dari Turunan Parsial
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

• Mempertimbangkan ada suatu fungsi F, mempunyai


sebuah parameter f = F(x, y, z, …) yang tergantung dari
parameter pengukuran lainnya x, y, z, ….

• Kesalahan dari perhitungan f, diberi notasi s f, akan


Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

tergantung dari fungsi F, parameter terukur x, y, z, …, dan


Research Scientist

kesalahan setiap parameternya s x, s y, s z, …, sehingga


dapat dituliskan dalam bentuk formula:
2 2 2
 F  2  F  2  F  2
sf =   s x    s y    s z  ...
 x   y   z 
Contoh formula & perhitungan penjalaran
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
kesalahan turunan parsial
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

Seorang “pitcher” melempar bola “baseball” dengan


jarak 30 ± 0.5 m dan kecepatan 40 ± 3 m/s (~ 90 mph).
Kemudian, hitung waktu yang ditempuh oleh bola yang
melayang tersebut !!!
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

2 2
d  1 2  d  2
t= st =   sd    2  sv =
Research Scientist

v  v  v 
F 1 2
 0.5   30  2
2
= =    2  3 = 0.058 
d v 
 40   40 
F d
= 2
v v t = 0.75  0.058s
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

v = at

, dapatkah 1 titik data tersebut


Apabila kita hanya punya 1 titik data

memberikan estimasi terbaik untuk “a” ?


determinasikan “a” berikut nilai kesalahannya.
Contoh lain dari penjalaran kesalahan
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

• Maka untuk tiap titik data 2


1   v 
2
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

data dapat kita determinasi sa =  sv    2 st  =


t  t 
“a (= v/t)” dengan
Research Scientist

kesalahannya: 2
v  sv   st 
2

=    
t  v   t 
Kita lihat kesalahan dari “a” adalah berbeda-beda untuk
masing-masing titik. Pererataan sederhana tidak akan cukup
bagus untuk mendeterminasikan “a” dan menghitung nilai
kesalahannya.
Pembobotan nilai rerata
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
(The weighted mean).
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

• Ketika data kita mempunyai perbedaan nilai kesalahan, kita perlu


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

melakukan pembobotan nilai rerata (weighted mean) untuk


mengestimasi nilai rerata sebenarnya/ yang mewakili/ yang
signifkan.
• Prosedur pembobotan tersebut mengharuskan kita melakukan
pembobotan terhadap setiap
1 titik data yang ada:
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

wi =
s i2
Research Scientist

• Catatan: Apabila kesalahan meningkat maka bobot pun meningkat.


• Pebobotan Nnilai rerata dan nilai kesalahan didefnisikan:
 wi yi 1
y= Ni=1
sy = N
w i w i
i=1 i=1
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

dalam proses analisis Data


Beberapa Kasus Penjalaran Kesalahan
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id Kasus Paling Sederhana
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

Consider some measurement of a parameter, x, that


leads to the computation of a result, z : z = f (x)
A measured value, say xo, leads to the calculation of
zo.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

The measured value has a range of error of xo ± δx


Research Scientist

and this means there is also a corresponding range in


the computed value, zo ± δz.
The value of δz is what must be determined. This
means a relation between δx and δz must be found.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Contoh Sederhana
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

Consider a simple parabolic relation: z = x2


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

The ranges of error can be introduced directly:

zo ± δz = (xo ± δx)2
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

And expanding gives: zo ± δz = xo2 ± 2xoδx + (δx)2


Research Scientist

where the last term usually can be neglected since it


should be small compared to xo. Since zo = xo2, then
δz = 2xoδx.

The relative uncertainty then is:


Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

So:
Thus:
the derivative:

δz = f '(x) δx
dz/dx
dz/dx = f '(x)
Pendekatan Umum

the elementary fnite diference approach


produces a great deal of algebraic complexity.
This is more useful and simplifes cases where
The fnite diferences are simply expressions of
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

error:
relation:
Consider the

With relative
dx
=

z =
2

zo
z
 x 1
2

=
1  x2
1  x 
2 2
dz x 2  1  x 2 x
=

x
z= 2


x

2
x 1
Contoh

x 1
1  x2

1  x 2 xo

1  x2  x
2
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Thus,

This gives:
z
x
=y

With relative uncertainty:


z
=
z
y

z = y x  x y

x
=x


y
z x y
Examine if the method can be extended: z = xy
Dianalisis menjadi 2 Variabel
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Or
Consider

z
dz
=a
x

Giving relative uncertainty:


dx
Diferentiating implicity gives:

z
z = xayb

b

z
y
dy
ln z = a ln x + b ln y

=a
x
x
This can be generalized to show the method:

b
y
y
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

 x 
 z 

Now, the standard deviation is:


 z =  x  
z = f (x,y)

 y 
z 

sz =
y
which leads to the general expresssion:


 z 
n 1
2
Simpangan Baku untuk Nilai Terhitung

Examine a computed value that is a function of two variables:


2
1  z   z  
Substituting appropriately: s =   x   y 
2
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

z
n  x   y  
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

So then the variance is

1  z 
2
 z 
2
 z  z  
s z =     x      y   2   xy 
2 2 2

n  x   y   x  y  

Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

And using the general defnition of the standard deviation


and the fact that the cross term of the diferentials (last
Research Scientist

term) is negligible gives:

2 2
 z  2  z  2
s z =   s x    s y
 x   y 
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

expressed as:

Or for the variance:

z
2
Sz =

S =
s
sz

z
N

N
2
For a small data set, say N < 10, the standard error is better
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Multi-variabel dari Penjalaran Kesalahan
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

Thus, in general, a calculated value that depends on


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

many diferent variables with form: z = f (x1, x2 … xn)


will have a standard deviation of:

2 2
  f ( x1 , x2 ... )  2   f ( x1 , x2 ... )  2
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

s = 
2
z
 s x1    s x 2  ...
 x1   x2 
Research Scientist

Or more simply:

s = K s  K s  ...
2
z
2
1 x1
2
2 x2
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

a capillary

the same capillary.


inh
c  to 
= ln 
1 t 

Where c is the per cent concentration


Contoh
The inherent viscosity, ηinh, is defned as:

to:the time of flow of that same volume of solvent through


t: the time of flow of a specifed volume of solution through
Applying the general expression for the computation of the
variance of the computed quantity gives:
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

1 1 2 1 2
s2
 inh = 2  2 st 2  2 st 2 
c  t0 o t 
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Because it can be measured to much higher accuracy


and precision than the times, the concentration is
Research Scientist

assumed to be error-free ( not usually a justifable


assumption) and is treated as a constant. Were this not
the case, then the numerator of the concentration term
would be the variance of the concentration.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

c
5
4
3
2
1

s2
St2
Run

Average
0.5%
t(sec)

0.548
256.8
256.2
256.0
255.2
255.0

0.1096
255.84
177.0
176.9
176.8
176.6
176.3
to(sec)

176.72

0.0155
0.0775
Inherent Viscosity Data
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id The values determined from the data are used in the
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

expression derived by the propagation of error analysis:


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

2
1 1 2 1 2 1  t  2
S 2
 inh = 2  2 st 2  2 st 2   2 ln  sc
c  t0 o t  c  to 
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

The variance of the concentration is negligible compared to


the error in the time measurements, so sc2 ~ 0.
Research Scientist

1  1 1 
S 2
=   0 .0155    0 .1096   = 9. 872 10 6
 inh
 0.5  176.72
2 2
 255.84 2


Thus Sinh = 3.14 x 10-3


Teknik Perhitungan Penjalaran Kesalahan
Pada Operasi Matematis:
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

a) Penambahan & Pengurangan


b) Perkalian & Pembagian
c) Perkalian Pangkat
d) Gabungan dari Perkalian, Pembagian,
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

Penambahan, Pengurangan, & Perkalian Pangkat


Research Scientist

e) Fungsi lain: Fungsi Sinus


f) Fungsi lain:
Penurunan persamaan menggunakan Turunan
Parsial sederhana
(a) Penambahan & Pengurangan
z = x + y or z = x - y
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

• Turunan: Diasumsikan bahwa ketidakpastian diatur sedemikian


rupa sehingga z dimungkinkan jauh dari nilai sebenanarnya.
• Simpangan rerata z = |x| + |y| digunakan untuk kedua
kasus operasi perhitungan.
• Dengan lebih dari 2 angka ditambahkan atau dikurangkan maka
kita juga harus menambahkan nilai ketidakpastiannya. Contoh:
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

1. Menggunakan pererataan kesalahan paling sederhana:


Research Scientist

z = x  y  .....
2. Menggunakan simpangan baku:

z = (x)  (y )  ....


2 2
Contoh
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia

w =(4.52 ± 0.02)cm, x = ( 2.0 ± 0.2)cm,


Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

y = (3.0 ± 0.6)cm.
Hitung z = x + y - w dan nilai ketidakpastiannya.
(1) z = x + y - w = 2.0 + 3.0 - 4.5 = 0.5 cm
(2) z = x + y + w = 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.02 = 0.82  0.8 cm
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

maka z = (0.5 ± 0.8) cm adalah kesalahan rerata


Marine Research Center
Research Scientist

(3) Solusi dengan simpangan baku, z = 0.633 cm,


maka z = (0.5 ± 0.6) cm
• Catatan: ketika kita melakukan pembulatan
dibelakang koma, harus dilakukan dengan hati-hati
dan benar.
Untuk perkalian dengan sebuah angka eksak
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia -- Kalikan nilai ketidakpastian dengan angka eksak yang sama
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

• Contoh:
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

radius sebuah lingkaran x = (3.0 ± 0.2) cm.


Hitung keliling lingkaran & nilai ketidakpastian.
C = 2x = 18.850 cm
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

C = 2x = 1.257 cm
Marine Research Center
Research Scientist

--nilai faktor 2 &  adalah eksak.


C = (18.9 ± 1.3) cm
Pembulatan nilai ketidakpastian dilakukan dari
tiga nilai dibelakang koma menjadi 1 nilai
dibelakang koma dapat dilakukan.
Contoh
x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) cm.
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Hitung z = x - 2y & nilai ketidakpastiannya.


(1) z = x - 2y = 2.0 - 2(3.0) = -4.0 cm
(2) z = x + 2 y = 0.2 + 1.2 = 1.4 cm
maka z = (-4.0 ± 1.4) cm (kesalahan rerata).
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

z = (-4.0 ± 0.9) cm (simpangan baku)


Research Scientist

The 0 after the decimal point in 4.0 is signifcant


and must be written in the answer.
The uncertainty in this case starts with a 1 and is
kept to two signifcant fgures.
(b) Perkalian & Pembagian:
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id z = x y or z = x/y
• Derivation: derive the relation for multiplication
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

easily. Take the largest values for x and y, that is


z + z = (x + x)(y + y) = xy + x y + y x + x y
• Usually x << x and y << y  x y << 0
so that the last term x y is much smaller than
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

the other terms and can be neglected.


Research Scientist

 z = xy, z = y x + x y
• which we write more compactly by forming the
relative error, that is the ratio of z/z, namely
z x y
=   ....
z x y
untuk perkalian, pembagian, atau
kobinasinya
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Konsepnya sama, yakni “tambahkan semua


kesalahan relatif untuk mendapatkan nilai kesalahan
relatif total pada hasil akhir”
z x y
=   ....
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

z x y Pererataan nilai kesalahan sederhana


Research Scientist

2 2
z  x   y 
=       ....
z  x   y 
Simpangan baku
Contoh:
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id w = (4.52 ± 0.02) cm, x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm.
hitung z = wx & nilai ketidakpastiannya
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

(1) z = wx = (4.52) (2.0) = 9.04 cm2


(2) Rerata kesalahan:
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center


Research Scientist

 z = 0.1044 (9.04 cm2) = 0.944  dibulatkan 0.9 cm2,


 z = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
(3) Simpangan baku: z = 0.905 cm2
 z = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2
The uncertainty is rounded to one signifcant fgure and the <z> is
rounded to match. To write 9.0 cm2 rather than 9 cm2 since the 0 is
signifcant.
Contoh
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

x = ( 2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) detik.


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Hitung z = x/y dengan unit dimensi kecepatan.


(1) z = 2.0/3.0 = 0.6667 cm/detik.
(2) Rerata kesalahan:
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

z = 0.3 (0.6667 cm/detik) = 0.2 cm/detik


Marine Research Center
Research Scientist

Maka: z = (0.7 ± 0.2) cm/detik


(3) Simpangan baku: z = (0.67 ± 0.15) cm/detik
• Note that in this case we round of our answer to
have no more decimal places than our
uncertainty.
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Marine Research Center
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
z =xmyn

Menggunakan simpangan baku:


Menggunakan Pereratan kesalahan sederhana:
(c) Perkalian (Produk) Pangkat:
Contoh
w = (4.52 ± 0.02) cm, A = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm2, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) cm.,
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources

wy 2
hitung z = wy2.A-0.5 & Δz . z=
A
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development

wy 2 4.52 cm  (3.0 cm) 2


z= = = 28.638 cm 2
A 2.0 cm 2
z 0.02 cm 0.6 cm 0.2 cm 2
=  2  0.5  = 0.454
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

2 2
28.638 cm 4.5 cm 3.0 cm 2.0 cm
Research Scientist

 Kesalahan relatif tingkat 2, (y/y), adalah x 2 sebab y2.


 Kesalahan relatif tingkat 3, (A/A), adalah x 0.5 dimana xA0.5.

 z = 0.454 (28.638 cm2) = 13.001652 cm2  dibulatkan jadi 13 cm2


 z = (29 ± 13) cm2 (untuk AE) atau z = (29 ± 12) cm2 (tuk SD)
Because the uncertainty begins with a 1, we keep two
signifcant fgures and round the answer to match.
(d) Gabungan: Perkalian, Pembagian, Penambahan,
Pengurangan, & Pangkat
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

-- paling mudah dijelaskan dengan contoh sbb:


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Soal: w=(4.52 ± 0.02)cm, x=(2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y=(3.0 ± 0.6)cm


hitung z = w x +y2, z = wx +y2 = 18.0 cm2
Solusi:
(1) Hitung v = wx didapatkan v = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
(2) hitung y 2 2y 2(0.6 cm)
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

= = = 0.40
Marine Research Center

2
y y 3.0 cm
Research Scientist

y 2 = 0.40  9.00 cm 2 = 3.6 cm 2


(3) hitung Δz = Δv + Δ(y2) = 0.9 + 3.6 = 4.5 cm2  4 cm2
 z = (18 ± 4) cm2 sebagai rerata kesalahan.
• Simpangan bakunya, v = wx = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
cara perhitungan untuk y2 adalah sama dengan cara diatas.
 untuk z = 3.7 cm2, maka z = (18 ± 4) cm2.
(e) Fungsi: Sinus
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

z = sin x
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Pendekatan sederhana:
• Estimasi nilai kesalahan pada z = sin(x)
adalah “selisih antara nilai maksimum dan
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

nilai rerata”.
Marine Research Center

• Teknik yang sama tersebut dapat digunakan


Research Scientist

untuk fungsi dibawah ini:


1  z = (sin x) = sin(x + x) - sin(x)
2  z = (cos x) = cos(x - x) - cos(x)
Contoh
S = wcos() for w = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm, =53 ± 2°.
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Hitung S & nilai ketidakpastiannya.


Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

Solusi:
(1) S = (2.0 cm)cos 53° = 1.204 cm
(2) Untuk mendapatkan nilai terbesar dari S:
 buat w bernilai lebih besar, (w + w) = 2.2 cm,
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

  bernilai lebih kecil, ( - ) = 51°.


Research Scientist

 Nilai terbesar S, menjadi (S + S), maka


(S + S) = (2.2 cm) cos 51° = 1.385 cm.
(3) Selisih nilai angka-angka diatas adalah
S = 1.385 - 1.204 = 0.181 cm
 dibulatkan 0.18 cm.
Hasil akhir: S = (1.20 ± 0.18) cm
(f) Fungsi:
Mendapatkan persamaan menggunkan Turunan Parsial
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
• Metode umum untuk mendapatkan persamaan yang
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

mengandung penjalaran kesalahan adalah melibatkan total


dari perbedaan dari suatu fungsi (the total diferential of a
function).
• misal z = f(w, x, y, ...) dimana variabel w, x, y, .... Harus
berupa variabel bebas !
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

• Maka persamaan total perbedaanya (total diferential) :


Marine Research Center

 f   f   f 
Research Scientist

dz =  dw   dx   dy  ...


 w   x   y 
• Perlakukan dw = w sebagai nilai kesalahan dari w, demikian
juga dengan fungsi diferensial yang lain dz, dx, dy, ....
• Nilai numerik dari turunan parsial adalah dievaluasi
menggunakan nilai rerata dari w, x, y, ....
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Research Scientist
Marine Research Center
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

2
z =
f
w

 w 
 f 
2
w 

2
f
x

 x 
 f 
x 

2
f
y

2
Menggunakan simpangan baku:


• Hasilnya secara umum kemudian menjadi:

y  ...

 y 

 f 
2
Menggunakan pererataan nilai kesalahan:

2
z =   w    x    y  ...
Contoh
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id Soal: S = xcos () for x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm,
 = (53 ± 2)°= (0.9250 ± 0.0035) rad.
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources

 hitung S & nilai ketidakpastiannya.


 catatan: nilai ketidakpastian dalam satuan (°) radian!
Solusi: (1) S = (2.0 cm)(cos 53°) = 1.204 cm
(2)
S = (1.20 ± 0.13) cm
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo

Marine Research Center

(simpangan rerata)
Research Scientist

(3)

S = (1.20 ± 0.12) cm
(simpangan baku)
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Marine & Coastal Data Laboratory
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id; Website: www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id

Xie Xie
Thank you

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