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Course Incharge:
Prof. Dr. Himayatullah Khan
Time Series Data
• One of the important and frequent types of data used in empirical
analysis.
• But it poses several challenges to econometricians/practitioners.
E.g.
1. Empirical work based on time series data assumes that the
underlying time series is stationary.
2. Autocorrelation: because the underlying time series data is
non-stationary.
3. Spurious/nonsense regression: a very high R2 and significant
regression coefficients (though there is no meaningful
relationship between the two variables)
Key Concepts
1. Stochastic Processes
i. Stationarity Processes
ii. Purely Random Processes
iii. Non-stationary Processes
2. Random Walk Models
i. Random Walk with Drift
ii. Random Walk without Drift
3. Unit Root Stochostic Processes
4. Deterministic and Stochastic Trends
5. The Phenomenon of Spurious Regression
6. Tests of Stationarity/non-stationarity
i. Graphical Method
ii. Unit Root Tests
1) Stochastic Processes
• Stochastic (Random) Process: collection of random
variables ordered in time.
o NOTATIONS: Let Y a random variable, Y(t) if continuous
(e.g. electrocardiogram), and Yt if discrete (e.g. GDP, PDI,
etc.).
o Now, If we let Y represent GDP, then we can have Y1, Y2, Y3,
... , Y20 where the subscript 1 denotes the 1st observation (i.e.
GDP for the 1st quarter of 1st year) and the subscript 20
denotes the last observation (i.e. GDP for the 4th quarter of 5th
year).
(1) Stochastic Processes
• Stationary Stochastic Processes: A stochastic process is said
to be stationary/ weakly /covariance/2nd-order stationary if:
o Its mean and variance are constant over time, and
o The value of the covariance between the two time periods depends only
on the distance/lag between the two time periods and not the actual time at
which the covariance is computed.
o E.g. let’s Yt be a stochastic process, then;
– Mean: E(Yt ) = µ ………………………………………….. (1)
– Variance: var (Yt ) = E(Yt − µ)2 = σ2 ……………………………….. (2)
– Covariance: γk = E[(Yt − µ)(Yt +k − µ)] ……………..………… (3)
• Where γk, the covariance (or auto-covariance) at lag k,
• If k = 0, we obtain γ0, which is simply the variance of Y (= σ2); if k = 1,
γ1 is the covariance between two adjacent values of Y
Why are Stationary Time Series so
Important?
• Because if a time series is non-stationary, we can study its
behavior only for the time period under consideration, and as a
consequence, it is not possible to generalize it to other time
periods.
• Therefore, for the purpose of forecasting, such (non-stationary)
time series may be of little practical value.
• Non-stationary Stochastic Processes: Although our
interest is in stationary time series, one often encounters non-
stationary time series
• A non-stationary time series will have a time-varying mean or a
time-varying variance or both.
White Noise Processes