© New Paradigm Consulting 2003

© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
New Paradigm Consulting
Co-creating the Future

An Approach to
Strategic Planning
May 2003

The Business The The
Overview Reflections
Organisation Ecosystem Future Process
The future
The
The Goal:
Goal:
To
Toincrease
increaseawareness
awarenessabout
about
the
theorganisation,
organisation,its
its
environment
environmentandandthe
thefuture.
future.
Strategic options Scenarios

(Exploring our future (Imagining the future)
possibilities) Increasing
awareness
The organisation The business

Co-evolution ecosystem
(Discovering our place & relationships)
The organisation
 Culture
 What are the patterns of thinking & behaviour
which characterise the organisation?
 Is change needed?
 Competencies
 What is the organisation distinctively good at?
 Do these give competitive advantage?
 What needs to be developed?

Entrepreneurial Phase Growth Phase Success Phase

The The The The The The
Company Customers Company Customers Company Customers
The The
centre centre
of of
gravity gravity
The
centre
of
gravity

A Business Ecosystem
The
The environment
environment
Governments
Governments
Standards
Standards bodies
bodies
New
New entrants
entrants
Competitors
Competitors
Supplier’s
Supplier’s suppliers
suppliers Suppliers
Suppliers Organisation
Organisation Customers
Customers Customer’s
Customer’s customers
customers
Substitutes
Substitutes
Stakeholders
Stakeholders
International
International law
law

Mapping the ecosystem

“Our current relationships”
 STEEP (Society, Technology, Environment, Economics, Politics)
 Customers
 Markets
 Competitors
 Five forces

The Future
 The future is inherently unpredictable
The purpose of planning is not to predict
the future but to increase the possibility
space for the organisation
 The future is co-created

We are neither passive victims of forces
beyond our control nor masters of our
destiny
Strategic options
“Our future possibilities”
 Key strategic issues
 What are the real areas which affect our business?
 (E.g. service, channel, market)
 Formulate key decision areas

 Where do decisions need to be made?
 Create clusters of options

 Discover coherent strategies
 Check against distinctive competencies

Competence
Strategic SERVICES
option Existing New
generation: Existing
PROTECT/BUILD SERVICE DEVELOPMENT
•Withdrawal •Existing competencies
one •Consolidation •New competencies
MARKETS
•Market penetration
approach
MARKET DEVELOPMENT DIVERSIFICATION
New •New segments •Existing competencies
•New territories •New competencies
•New uses
Development
Scenarios
“Imagining the future”
 Identify key driving forces

 Choose most uncertain/most significant
 Develop alternatives
 ‘Flesh out’ with narrative

Note which
key external Identify key driving forces
drivers are
both
important &
High
Driver 2
uncertain Driver 1
Driver 5
Importance
Driver 3
Driver 4
Low
Low Uncertainty High

Formulate ‘yes-no’ questions

Driver 2
Yes No
Yes
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Driver 5
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
No

Develop future time line for each

scenario
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
 Map out critical events leading to the

unfolding of this scenario enabling you to:
 Scan for triggers which will alert you to the
scenario
 Rehearse your strategic responses to the events of
the scenario
Test each
option against
Cross-impact matrix
each scenario. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Learning
S W S W
SWOT
analysis is
Option 1
P M I
one useful O T O T
tool;
de Bono’s Option 2
S W S W
Plus/Minus/
Interesting O T
P M I O T
is also good.
Add learning S W S W
points and
actions Option 3
O T
P M I O T
required.
Actions

Typical process
 Structured conversations
 Speak with as wide a range of people as possible
 Ecosystem workshops
 Look out before looking in
 STEEP, customers, etc.
 Organisation workshops
 Distinctive competencies & competitive
advantage
 Explore culture
Typical process
 Develop strategic options
 Develop scenarios
 Cross-impact competencies against
scenarios
 Prepare change agenda

Are scenarios the answer?

 Do scenarios help?
Shell used them effectively
IBM & General Motors did not
 Why not?
Diversity
Is there enough diversity in planning process?
Culture
Is the culture open to new thinking & doing?

Strategic intent
 Strategic intent must inform all of
organisational life
 Strategic intent must take account of
the realities of the organisation and its
environment
 Strategic intent is more important
than ‘strategy’
Planning is not about…

 Planning is not about predicting the future
 Planning is not about writing a detailed
road map into the future
 Planning is not about a few people writing
a vision statement & then getting ‘buy-in’
from everyone else

Planning is about…
 Planning is about learning
 Planning is about increasing the possibilities
for the organisation
 Planning is about discovering how fit the
organisation is for its environment
 Planning is about discovering and telling
compelling stories about the future


© New Paradigm Consulting 2003

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