Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Industrial Revolution
Green Revolution
Belgium 9 10 14 28 43 56 88
USA 4 9 14 21 38 69 126
France 9 9 12 20 28 39 59
Germany 8 8 9 15 25 52 85
Austria 7 7 8 11 15 23 32
Italy 8 8 8 10 12 17 26
Russia 6 6 7 8 10 15 20
China 8 6 6 4 4 3 3
India 7 6 6 3 2 1 2
Negative Impacts of IR
hectares
1,80
Million 0
1,40
0
LAND SAVED
1.1 billion ha
Rice 1,00
0
Wheat Soybn
Grain 600
LAND USED
660 million ha
Other Corn
200
Wheat Soybn
Grain
Other Corn
Competition
among the crops….
No population explosion!!
Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions Billions
100 10
80 8
Population size
Annual Increments
?!
Population size
60 6
Annual increments
40 4
20 2
0 0
2075 2100 2125 2150
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
F ig. 16. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04
(Million MT)
700
600
Rice
Wheat
Competition among crops!!
Corn
500 Soybean
400
300
200
100
0
1961
1967
1971
1973
1977
1979
1983
1985
1963
1965
1969
1975
1981
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori- u.ac.jp), Tottori University, J apan J une 15, 2002. (Original sources are
from ERS/ USDA; PS&D View , November 2004).
Note: Rice is milled basis.
Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,
South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004
(Kg)
Milled basis
200
Japan
T aiwan
South Korea
160 China
120
80
40
1967
1971
1975
1977
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
1961
1963
1969
1973
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: S.It o,W orld Food St at ist ics & Graphics
(htt p://worldfood.muses.tot tori-u.ac.jp)
Original dat a sources: USDA:P S&D View, November 2004; USBC:Int ernat ional Data Base , July 2003.
World per capita consumption for wheat, corn and soybean,
k g/capita 1993-2013
90
Wheat Corn Soybean Rice
80
70
60
50
40
Will rice and wheat fall!!
30
20
10
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
1000m t
F ig . 2 1 W o r ld r ic e to ta l c o n su m p tio n ; 1 9 6 0 -2 0 5 0
600000
500000
400000
300000
0
1960
1972
1987
1999
2011
2023
2038
2050
1963
1966
1969
1975
1978
1981
1984
1990
1993
1996
2002
2005
2008
2014
2017
2020
2026
2029
2032
2035
2041
2044
2047
Weaker demand for rice
and wheat means…
• Over-supply of rice and wheat
• Decline global market prices
• Loss to producers
• End up with smaller production
• Then ??
• GR technology is Fertilizers - Irrigation
Dependency & Inequality
- Pesticides based production system
• Expensive inputs: profits go to global
companies as poor countries import:
GR Impact:
– Irrigation devices
– Fertilizers
– Pesticides
• Increased INEQUALITY
• Irrigation: Wealthy invested, got richer,
drove out poor
• Pesticide: Need gradually more
• Fertilizer: Fertilizer use increases by
huge amount
• Production: Need more inputs each
year for same production that the poor
can’t pay and got less production
• Economic power and land control went to a
Dependency & Inequality
few landowners who were bigger growers
• Benefits of GR technology went to
GR Impact: