POPULATION

FORECASTING -
LOGISTIC
CURVE
METHOD

Page 1
 Population Forecasting

• Important process in the design of waste

water treatment plants

• Factors affecting change in population:

 Fertility/ Birth rate
 Death rate
 Migration

Page 2
 Logistic Method
• Follows some logical
mathematical
relationship.
• has an S-shape
combining a geometric
rate of growth at low
Saturation population
population with a
declining growth rate as
Decr
the population
Population

approaches some
limiting value.
Incre

Lo

Years
Page 3
 Equation - 1
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡
• 𝑃𝑡 = ………………. (1)
1+𝑒 (𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡)
• Where
Pt : population at some time in the future
Psat: population at saturation level
t: number of years after base year
a, b: data constants

Page 4
 Equation - 2

2𝑃0 𝑃1 𝑃2 − 𝑃12 (𝑃0 + 𝑃2 )

• 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 = ……………….. (2)
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃12
• Where
Psat: population at saturation level
Po: base population
P1 , P2 : population at time periods

Page 5
 Equation - 3
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃0
• 𝑎 = ln( ) …………………. (3)
𝑃0

1 𝑃0 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1 )
• 𝑏= ln ………………(4)
𝑛 𝑃1 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃0 )
• Where
n: time interval between successive
censuses
Page 6
 Example
Census year Population
1851 495
• The data for 1861 693
population 1871 1108
censuses from 1881 1431
1851 to 2000 for 1891 2068
Island of 1901 3162
Rodrigues is given 1911 4829

below. Estimate 1921 6584

1931 8202
the expected
1944 11885
population in
1952 13333
2011.
1962 18335
1972 24769
1983 33082
1990 34204
2000 35779
Page 7
 STEP 1 Census year Population
1851 495
1861 693

• Three 1871
1881
1108
1431
successive 1891 2068

years, 1901 3162

1911 4829
represented by 1921 6584

to, t1, and t2 are t0

1931 8202
1944 11885
chosen such that 1952 13333
they are t1
1962 18335
1972 24769
equidistant from 1983 33082
each other. 1990 34204
t2 2000 35779
Page 8
 Logistic Curve Plot
40000

35000

30000

25000
Population

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Census year

Page 9
STEP 2 Census year Population
1851 495
1861 693
• The number 1871 1108

of years from 1881

1891
1431
2068
to to t1 and t1 1901 3162

to t2 is 1911 4829
1921 6584
denoted by 1931 8202
n. t0 1944 11885
1952 13333
n=28
1962 18335
t1 1972 24769
1983 33082
n=28
1990 34204
t2 2000 35779

Page 10
STEP 3 Census year Population
1851 495
• The 1861 693
population 1871 1108

figures 1881 1431

1891 2068
correspondin 1901 3162
g to to, t1, and 1911 4829
t2 are Po, P1 1921 6584

and P2 1931 8202

t0 1944 11885 P0
respectively 1952 13333
through n=28
1962 18335
which the t1 1972 24769 P1
logistic curven=28 1983 33082
1990 34204
is to pass.
t2 2000 35779 P2
Page 11
 CALCULATIONS - 1

• n=28
• P0= 11885, P1= 24769 and P2= 35779
2𝑃0 𝑃1 𝑃2 − 𝑃12 (𝑃0 + 𝑃2 )
• From equation 2, 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 =
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃12

2(11885)(24769)(35779) −247692 (11885 +35779)

• ∴ 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 = (11885)(35779) − 247692
= 43431.1

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 CALCULATIONS - 2
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃0
• From equation 3, 𝑎 = ln( )
𝑃0
43431.3 −11885
• ∴𝑎= ln( )
11885
= 0.9761
1 𝑃0 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1 )
• From equation 4, 𝑏 = ln
𝑛 𝑃1 (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃0 )
1 11885(43431.3 −24769)
• ∴𝑏= ln
28 24769(43431.3 −11885)
= −0.04497
Page 13
 CALCULATIONS - 3

• Replacing the values obtained in equation

1, the expected population for 2011 is:
• ∆𝑡 = 2011-1944 = 67 years
43431.3
• 𝑃𝑡 =
1+𝑒 (0.9761−0.04497(67))
= 38420.8

Page 14
 CONCLUSION

• Based on census reports, the population

of Rodrigues in 2011 was 37,922
(Wikipedia)
• Estimated population with logistic method
is 38420.8
• 1.31% deviation from actual value

Page 15
Advantages and Disadvantages
• Advantages
 Longer projection period compared to simple
geometric procedures
 Gives a better approximation than other methods.

• Disadvantages
 Mechanical process
 Cannot predict decreasing population
 Demographic and socioeconomic changes not
considered
 Requires a large number of observations covering a
long period

Page 16
 References
• Punmia, B.C, Arun, K.J., 2005. Water Supply
Engineering. 2nd ed. New Delhi: Laxmi
Publications
• Annual Digest of Statistics 2011 [Online].
Available from:
http://www.gov.mu/portal/goc/cso/file/AnnualDig
estofStatistics2011.pdf
• Rodrigues [Online]. Available from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigues

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Thank You For Your
Attention

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