[Preliminary Result]

Electrified Vehicle Overall

Environment, Industry & Social
Impact Study in Indonesia
Interim Report
LPEM FEB UI
9th of August 2018
Outline Presentation
• Background
• Research Purpose
• Analysis Method
• Primary Survey Result
• Impact Analysis Simulation
 Assumption
 Cost to be Incentivized Analysis
 Overall Environmental Impact
 Industry (Automotive & Component) Impact Analysis
• Summary
2
Background
• The high growth rate of Automobile Industry Sector in Indonesia’s GDP (5.6% annually)
versus Energy Security (fuel availability) and Environmental Issues (pollution)

Kebijakan Energi Nasional Paris Agreement

PP No. 79 tahun 2014 COP-21 2015
The role of petroleum in the Primary Indonesia participates in a world
Energy Mix less than 25% in 2025, less commitment to reduce greenhouse gas
than 20% in 2050 emissions by 29% in 2030

• Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Industry
draft a Presidential Regulation to support the development of Electric Vehicles in
Indonesia
• MoI also set up Target: 20% market share of Electrified Vehicle (HEV, PHEV, BEV) in 2025
under Low Carbon Emission Vehicle program 3
Electrified Vehicle (EV) Policy in Other Countries
Some developed/developing countries has strong intention to introduce Electrified Vehicles in their
countries by developing Electrified Vehicle sales target in certain years.

China Japan Thailand United Kingdom Germany

Aspect/Country
Starting Year: 2009 Starting Year: 2010 Starting Year: 2016 Starting Year: 2009 Starting Year: 2007
15-20% market share in
2020
Target 5 million EV sales in 2020 Not yet set 100% EV sales in 2040 1 million EV sales in 2020
20-30% market share in
2030
Investment/Production Infrastructure
First Priority in EV EV Purchase Incentives EV Purchase Incentives R&D
Incentives Development
Development (Demand Side) (Demand Side) (Supply Side)
(Supply Side) (Demand Side)

Investment/Production
Incentives
For every 10 ICE sales, car
company must sell 1 EV
Exemption of component
import duties, exemption Provision of competitive 120% deductible of
No specific policy, only
of import duty for BEV for grants, company tax cuts company tax, integration
encourages R&D
2 years, exemption from from 17% to 9% of production and R&D
corporate tax

EV Purchase Incentives See next slide

EV can access restricted EV can access restricted

Other Incentives No Policy No Policy No Policy
area area, can use the bus lane

Compiled from various literature. (Main references: Cheng & Tong (2017), d’Arcier & Lecler (2014), Yongpisanphob (2017), Germany Trade & Invest (2015), Butcher, Hinson, & Hirst (2018))
Electrified Vehicle (EV) Incentives in Other Countries
Therefore, in order to achieve the Electrified Vehicle sales target, their Government provides some
incentives such as tax exemption, subsidy, rebates, etc.

Country EV Purchase Incentives Value

Tax exemption Exemption from Sales Tax (PPN) and Automobile Tax (PKB)
Subsidy from Central Government and Local From central government: 35.000 – 60.000 RMB (74 million – 127 million rupiah)
China
Government From local government: 40.000 – 60.000 RMB (84,5 million – 127 million rupiah)
Subsidy/Rebates from Car Company Max. 20.000 RMB (42,5 juta Rupiah)
Exemption from Sales Tax (PPN) and Automobile Tonnage Tax
Tax exemption/Reduction
50% automobile tax (PKB) reduction
Japan
Max. 50% from the price difference between ICE and EV (with same specification), Max. 1
Subsidy from Central Government
million JPY (130 million rupiah)
Thailand Tax Reduction Automobile tax (PKB) cut from 25% to 5% (PHEV) and 2% (BEV)
5% subsidy, max. 4500 GBP (75,5 million rupiah) for BEV, max. 2500 GBP (42 million
Tax exemption
United Kingdom rupiah) for PHEV
Subsidy from Central Government Exemption from Sales Tax (PPN)
Germany Subsidy from Central Government Max. 4.000 Euro (67 million rupiah) for EV with price below 60.000 Euro (1 billion rupiah)

Compiled from various literature. (Main references: Cheng & Tong (2017), d’Arcier & Lecler (2014), Yongpisanphob (2017), Germany Trade & Invest (2015), Butcher, Hinson, & Hirst (2018))
 Price Comparison & Market Share
According to the data, Electrified Vehicle market show positive growth as an impact of government
fiscal support to minimize price gap between Electrified Vehicle technology and ICE

PHEV and BEV Market Share

Price EV* Price EV (after purchase incentives)***
Country Price ICE
(Before Incentives) (After Incentives)**
2 years 5 years 2017
China 1% 2.2%
BEV 1.1 – 3.4x BEV 0.8 –1.9x
Purchase incentives: 1x (sales 2015: 188.700 5 year in 2018 (sales 2017: 579.000
PHEV 2.2x PHEV 1.4x
2013 unit) unit)
Japan
BEV 1.5 - 2x BEV 1.2 – 1.7x
Purchase incentives: 1x 0,4% 0,7% 1%
PHEV 1.3x PHEV 1.15x
2009
Thailand 1x no mass production/purchase of electric cars yet
United Kingdom
BEV 1.8x BEV 1.5x
Purchase incentives: 1x 0,1% 1% 2%
PHEV 1.2x PHEV 1.1x
2010
Germany 2%
BEV 1.7x BEV 1.5x
Purchase incentives: 1x 2 year in 2018 5 year in 2021 (Sales 2017: 54.560
PHEV 1.15x PHEV 1x
2016 unit)
*, ** Based on 1st – 3rd top selling EV prices in each country, compared to ICE cars with the same specifications, sourced from the respective car company website
*** Compiled from various literature. Main references: Cheng & Tong (2017), d’Arcier & Lecler (2014), Yongpisanphob (2017), Germany Trade & Invest (2015), Butcher, Hinson, & Hirst (2018),
6
Electric Car Market Statistics (2018). https://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/. , Electric Car Sales Are Surging in China (Infographic by Forbes)
Research Purpose
1. Observing Indonesian consumers’ preferences on
electrified vehicles (EV).
2. Overall environment, industry and social impact analysis.
3. Recommendation to promote of Electrified Vehicle in
Indonesia (Including HEV, PHEV, and BEV)*.
*HEV : Hybrid Electric Vehicles
PHEV : Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
BEV : Battery Electric Vehicles

7
Analysis Method Primary
Survey
Infrastructure Convenience

Total Cost Ownership (IDR/Km)

Scenario:
Electrified
Business as Usual Cost Gap ICE BEV
S0 Vehicle
 Sales only Internal Burden
(BAU) Combustion Engine (ICE)
Alternative Policy Instrument
Customer
Sales Target (2025) (Transfer tax, Lux Tax, Import Duty)
S1 Preference National Auto
 ICE : HEV= 80:20 Industry
Economy (+/-)
Sales Target (2025) • Output
S2  ICE : PHEV= 80:20 Auto • Added Value (GDP)
Component • Revenue
Sales
Industry
(Number of
Sales Target (2025) Vehicle) Social (+/-)
S3  ICE : BEV= 80:20 Other Up & (MP number)
Downstream
Sales Target (2025) Industry
 ICE : Electrified Vehicle
S4 Environment
(HEV, PHEV, BEV) = Volume CO2 from ICE : Electrified
80:20 (+/-) : Volume
Vehicle : BEV
CO2
8
Survey Sampling Design
User: distributed in the automotive dealer Non-user: distributed in Jabodetabek Area
in Jabodetabek Area No. Area Regency/City Respondent
No. Area Respondent 1 DKI Jakarta South Jakarta 26
1 East Jakarta 24 2 DKI Jakarta West Jakarta 26
2 North Jakarta 12 3 DKI Jakarta Central Jakarta 26
3 Central Jakarta 11 4 DKI Jakarta North Jakarta 26
4 South Jakarta 35 5 DKI Jakarta East Jakarta 26
5 West Jakarta 23 Depok dan Depok City, Bogor
6 26
6 Bekasi & Cikarang 33 Bogor Regency and City
Tangerang dan Tangerang Regency and
7 23 7 Tangerang 26
Serang City, South Tangerang
8 Bogor and Depok 46 8 Bekasi Bekasi Regency and City 26
TOTAL 208 TOTAL 208

9
Survey Progress
Starts from July 25th, 2018, the intial survey has been conducted for Non-Car User and now just
started for Car User which cover representative of Jabodetabek area

USER (32) NON-USER (210)

28
12

27
9

26 26 26 26 26
6
25

2 2
1 1
0

Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Depok dan Tangerang Bekasi Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Depok dan Tangerang Bekasi
Pusat Utara Selatan Timur Barat Bogor (Kab/Kota) (Kab/Kota) Pusat Utara Selatan Timur Barat Bogor (Kab/Kota) (Kab/Kota)
(Kab/Kota) (Kab/Kota)

Survey is conducted from July 25, 2018 (currently still on going)

• The first phase was Non-user of car which shown in yellow graphic. Total number respondents of Non-User are 210 persons.
• The second phase (currently still on going) is User of car. The sample was distributed in the automotive dealer in Jabodetabek Area, result
shown in orange graphic. Total number respondents of User are 32 persons.

10
Conventional or Electrified- Vehicle (E-Car)?
Conventional / E-car?
18.18%

Conventional Car
50.83% Electrified Car
Don't know
30.99%

As a preliminary result:
Half of respondents preferred Conventional Car rather than E-car
11
Heard and Knowing about E-car
Ever heard about E-car Know about E-car production in some countries
88.62% 88.00% 53.66% 54.67%
46.34% 45.33%

11.38% 12.00%

Respondent who choose Respondent who choose Electric Respondent who choose Respondent who choose Electric
Conventional Conventional
Yes No Yes No

Most of respondents have ever heard about E-car,

But only half of them know about E-car production in some countries
12
E-Car Technology Preference
As Preliminary Result, survey found that PHEV and HEV more preferred by the respondent who
preferred E-car rather than ICE

Choosen Car Technology by Respondents From the survey, we’ve already got the preliminary result

35 Many of respondents tend to pick PHEV dan HEV as their choice

• 39 respondents (52.00%) tend to choose PHEV
• 28 respondents (37.33%) tend to choose HEV
23 • Meanwhile, only 8 respondents (10,67%) tend to choose BEV

6 5
4
2

BEV PHEV HEV

User Non-user

13
 Reason of Choosing Electrified Vehicle - BEV
According to the survey result, potential customer think that BEV has advantage in operational cost
(Cost per 100 km) but they has expectation to improve BEV price and driving distance

Reason of respondents, why preferred BEV (n=18; Reason of respondents, why not preferred BEV (n=195)
100%)
75.90% 78.97%
50.00% 66.67%

22.22%
16.67%
20.00%
5.56% 5.56%

Cost per 100km Maintenance Distance in one Charging time Maximum speed
Cost charge Price Distance Charging time Maximum Speed

18 respondents who preferred BEV, because of: From 195 respondents

1. Cost per 100km (only 0,2x from ICE) 1. 75.90% not preferred BEV because of its Price
2. Maintenance Cost (only 0,6x from ICE) 2. 66.67% not preferred BEV because of its Distance
3. 78.97% not preferred BEV because of its Charging Time
4. 20.00% not preferred BEV because of its Maximum Speed
14
Desired Price of Electrified Vehicle - BEV
Customer will more accept if the BEV price has similar or 1.2 higher than ICE Price.

BEV Desired Price (n=176)

Respondents who did not choose BEV as their preference:
34.66%
• 34,66% respondents want BEV in range of 1.00x – 1.20x
27.84% from ICE Price
• 27,48% respondents want BEV in range of 1.51x – 2.00x
from ICE Price
17.05%
13.64%

6.82%

< 1.00 x 1.00 x - 1.20 x 1.21 x - 1.50 x 1.51 x - 2.00 x > 2.0 x

On average (n=176), the desired price is 1,36x from ICE

The mode value is 1,00x from ICE (31,82% of respondents)
15
Impact Analysis Simulation
(Utilizing Secondary Data)

16
Assumption for Simulation
Demand • Electrified Vehicle Demand Analysis
Reference Average Price of ICE, HEV, PHEV and BEV
Analysis  Infrastructure is negligible
ICE HEV PHEV BEV
• HEV : 1,25 US 1 1.2 ~ 1.3 1.4 1.6
EV Price • PHEV : 1,4 Japan 1 1.2 1.5 1.5
• BEV : 1,5 Locally Produced Germany 1 N/A N/A 1.5

Car Usage To be used 1 1.25 1.4 1.5

• 12,000 km
/ year Percentage of Sales Target ICE:EV
Gasoline EV 20%
• IDR 9,000 / Liter
Price ICE EV in 2025

100% 5 5 9
ICE Fuel 10 15 15 20
• 10 Km / Liter 80%
Efficiency 60%
95 95 91 90 85 85
Electricity 40% 80
• No Subsidy for Household PLN 20%
Price
0%
• A customer able to switch has a 30% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Likelihood
likelihood to buy EV instead of ICE of the
to Buy same price
17
 Framework : Cost to be Incentivized to Achieve 20% Market of HEV (MPV1 Segmen)
P ( Mio IDR)

Max Price 327 Cost to be incentivized (fiscal support) : 44.45 Mio IDR (16,74%)
2025 HEV Price : 265
HEV Price by 2025 is 1.25 * OTR Price 2025
That is, 1.25 * 212 = 265
2025 20% price: 221
At this price, consumers whose WTP is at least 265 is could
then afford to switch from conventional vehicle (ICE) to the
electrified vehicles (EV)

2017 Price: 207 However, the consumers may also opt to still purchase ICE.
This study assumes that 3 out of 10 such consumers switch
to EV, while the remainder remains buying ICE (30 percent).

Under our framework, we shall calculate the necessary price

incentive for the consumers to reach the targeted market
share, including 20 percent of EV share in 2025.
Q
(30% CS ~ 10% HEV )
460 570 In this example, our calculations points 20 percent of EV
(60% CS ~ 20% HEV) market demand could be gathered using around 45 Million
IDR worth of incentives, under the MPV1 segment.

18
Price to be Accepted by Customer and Cost to be incentivized to Achieve 20% Market of EV
(HEV Technology)
Around IDR 221 Million is the maximum price (Price Gap 7% compare to ICE) to achieve 20% market of EV (MPV1 Segment)
HEV Price to Necessary
Average OTR HEV Price in Potential Achieve 20% Incentive
Price 2017 (Mio 2025 = 1.25 x ICE Demand HEV Market Necessary (in
Segment Level Tax 2017 Sales (Unit) IDR) Elasticity OTR Price (% of ICE) Demand Incentive percent)

Entry Low 30% 3,144.00 296.00 -3.31 380.33 3.99 316.39 63.94 16.813%

Medium 40% 5,809.00 640.00 -3.31 821.84 3.99 683.67 138.17 16.813% Average
Sedan Type Luxury 125% 186.00 1,019.00 -2.68 1,308.75 7.20 1,080.07 228.68 17.473% incentive

MPV1 10% 460,570.00 207.00 -3.48 265.55 3.01 221.10 44.45 16.740% needed is

MPV2 20% 134,399.00 358.00 -3.48 460.28 3.01 383.23 77.05 16.740%
16% - 17%

MPV3 40% 1,723.00 406.00 -3.48 521.88 3.01 434.51 87.36 16.740%
to achieve

MPV MPV4 125% 201.00 1,132.00 -3.48 1,454.17 3.01 1,210.74 243.43 16.740%
price gap

SUV1 10% 245.00 193.00 -3.36 247.56 3.69 206.00 41.56 16.787%
7%

SUV2 20% 2,260.00 417.00 -3.36 535.74 3.69 445.80 89.93 16.787%

SUV3 125% 1,133.00 1,624.00 -5.93 2,085.56 0.00 1,730.62 354.94 17.019%
19
SUV LCGC 0% 234,554.00 133.00 -7.22 251.78 0.00 208.15 43.63 17.330%
 Price to be Accepted by Customer and Cost to be incentivized to Achieve 20% Market of EV
(PHEV Technology)
Around IDR 221 Million is the maximum price (Price Gap 7% compare to ICE) to achieve 20% market of EV (MPV1 Segment)

PHEV Price to Necessary

Average OTR PHEV Price in Potential Achieve 20% Incentive
Price 2017 (Mio 2025 = 1.4 x ICE Demand PHEV Market Necessary (in
Segment Level Tax 2017 Sales (Unit) IDR) Elasticity OTR Price (% of ICE) Demand Incentive percent)

Entry Low 30% 3,144.00 296.00 -3.31 425.97 0.00 316.39 109.58 25.726%
Average
Medium 40% 5,809.00 640.00 -3.31 920.47 0.00 683.67 236.80 25.726%
incentive
Sedan Type Luxury 125% 186.00 1,019.00 -2.68 1,465.80 0.00 1,080.07 385.73 26.315%
needed is
MPV1 10% 460,570.00 207.00 -3.48 297.42 0.00 221.10 76.32 25.661%
25% - 27%
MPV2 20% 134,399.00 358.00 -3.48 515.52 0.00 383.23 132.29 25.661%
to achieve
MPV3 40% 1,723.00 406.00 -3.48 584.50 0.00 434.51 149.99 25.661%
price gap
MPV MPV4 125% 201.00 1,132.00 -3.48 1,628.67 0.00 1,210.74 417.93 25.661%
7%
SUV1 10% 245.00 193.00 -3.36 277.27 0.00 206.00 71.27 25.703%

SUV2 20% 2,260.00 417.00 -3.36 600.02 0.00 445.80 154.22 25.703%

SUV3 125% 1,133.00 1,624.00 -5.93 2,335.83 0.00 1,730.62 605.21 25.910%
20
SUV LCGC 0% 234,554.00 133.00 -7.22 282.00 0.00 208.15 73.85 26.187%
 Price to be Accepted by Customer and Cost to be incentivized to Achieve 20% Market of EV
(BEV Technology)
Around IDR 221 Million is the maximum price (Price Gap 7% compare to ICE) to achieve 20% market of EV (MPV1 Segment)

BEV Price to Necessary

Average OTR BEV Price in 2025 Potential Achieve 20% Incentive
Price 2017 (Mio = 1.5 x ICE OTR Demand BEV Market Necessary (in
Segment Level Tax 2017 Sales (Unit) IDR) Elasticity Price 2025 (% of ICE) Demand Incentive percent)

Entry Low 30% 3,144.00 296.00 -3.31 456.40 0.00 316.39 140.01 30.677%
Average
Medium 40% 5,809.00 640.00 -3.31 986.21 0.00 683.67 302.54 30.677%
incentive
Sedan Type Luxury 125% 186.00 1,019.00 -2.68 1,570.50 0.00 1,080.07 490.43 31.228%
needed is
MPV1 10% 460,570.00 207.00 -3.48 318.66 0.00 221.10 97.56 30.617%
30% - 32%
MPV2 20% 134,399.00 358.00 -3.48 552.34 0.00 383.23 169.11 30.617%
to achieve
MPV3 40% 1,723.00 406.00 -3.48 626.25 0.00 434.51 191.74 30.617%
price gap
MPV MPV4 125% 201.00 1,132.00 -3.48 1,745.00 0.00 1,210.74 534.26 30.617%
7%
SUV1 10% 245.00 193.00 -3.36 297.08 0.00 206.00 91.07 30.656%

SUV2 20% 2,260.00 417.00 -3.36 642.88 0.00 445.80 197.08 30.656%

SUV3 125% 1,133.00 1,624.00 -5.93 2,502.68 0.00 1,730.62 772.05 30.849%
21
SUV LCGC 0% 234,554.00 133.00 -7.22 302.14 0.00 208.15 93.99 31.108%
 Cost to be Incentivized*
(Fiscal Support) Analysis:
No Price Drop Due to No Technological
Advancement

*Lower-middle class incentive, not intended for upper middle class automotive, i.e. S3, MPV4, SUV3
22
 Cost to be Incentivized
Electrified vehicle could be achieved 20% Market Share if certain amount of incentive is provided.
Required incentive for HEV and combination of Electrified Vehicle is lower than for PHEV and BEV.

Total incentive needed to incentivized 20% Electrified Vehicle Government Income Comparison in IDR
70,000,000.00 100000000
Achieve 20% of
Achieve 20% of Electrified Vehicle
60,000,000.00 Electrified Vehicle
50000000

50,000,000.00

0
40,000,000.00
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

30,000,000.00
-50000000

20,000,000.00
Incentive for HEV and
Combination of -1E+08
10,000,000.00
Electrified vehicle is
the lowest
- -1.5E+08
PSUV1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) ICE only
HEV PHEV BEV Electric Car
23
 Cost to be Incentivized*
(Fiscal Support) Analysis:
Price Drop** Due to Technological Advancement
(by 2025 onwards)

*Lower-middle class incentive, not intended for upper middle class automotive, i.e. S3, MPV4, SUV3
** Since 2025, HEV price is 1.1, PHEV price is 1.25, BEV price is 1.3 of ICE
24
 Cost to be Incentivized
Electrified vehicle could be achieved 20% Market Share if certain amount of incentive is provided.
Required incentive for HEV and combination of Electrified Vehicle is lower than for PHEV and BEV.

Cost to be Incentivized per Vehicle in IDR Government Income Comparison in IDR

45,000,000.00 60000000 Achieve 20% of
Achieve 20% of Electrified Vehicle
40,000,000.00
Electrified Vehicle 40000000
35,000,000.00
20000000
30,000,000.00

25,000,000.00 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
20,000,000.00
-20000000
15,000,000.00

10,000,000.00
Incentive for HEV and -40000000 If advance technology is realized,
Combination of Government income to support
5,000,000.00 Electrified vehicle is -60000000 electrified vehicle realization will be
-
the lowest more manageable
PSUV1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 -80000000

HEV PHEV BEV Electric Car HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) ICE only
25
Overall Environmental Analysis

26
(Reference) Well to Wheel
A well-to-wheels (WTTW) means that a sum of energy use and emissions with fuel production (or well-to-tank
[WTT]) and vehicle operation (or tank-to-wheels [TTW]) activities in a entire vehicle fuel-cycle.

Well to Wheel
Well to Tank Well to Wheel

Conventional
Power Generation in Indonesia

Coal (58.3%)

Fuel CO2
Power HEV
GAS Generation
(23.2%)
Co2 is emitted at…
• Oil Plant
PHEV
Fuel • Fuel Plant
(6.0%) • Bio-fuel production
etc. Electricity/ EV
No CO2
Hydrogen
NRE
(12.5%) FCV

27
Underlying Assumptions
• We follow the proportion of ICE : EV (according to respective
scenarios, i.e. BEV only, PHEV only, HEV only, and combined) as
follow:
ICE (blue) to EV (orange) Sales Assumption
120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

28
Environmental Impact Scenario
Electrified Vehicle could minimize the emission amount of CO2.
BEV has the least amount of CO2 emission (Can reduce CO2 Emission around 33% from BAU)
4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

18%
2,000,000 +3% (21%)
+11% (33%)
1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ICE only HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)
Automotive & Component
Industry Analysis

30
[Reference] Automotive & Component Industry Impact Simulation
Additional parts will be required for HEV and PHEV technology, while for BEV there are some ICE parts which will be
eliminated (E.g. Engine)

Value of Vehicle Parts Percentage of Vehicle Parts

Components ICE HEV PHEV* BEV** Components ICE HEV PHEV* BEV**
Automotive 1.800.000 2.200.000 2.520.000 2.692.800 Automotive 100% 122% 140% 150%
HEV components - 400.000 720.000 1.324.800 HEV components 0% 22% 40% 74%
Motor - 80.000 80.000 80.000 Motor 0% 4% 4% 4%
Power Control Unit - 80.000 80.000 80.000 Power Control Unit 0% 4% 4% 4%
Others - 80.000 80.000 80.000 Others 0% 4% 4% 4%
Battery - 160.000 480.000 1.084.800 Battery 0% 9% 27% 60%
Common components 1.800.000 1.800.000 1.800.000 1.368.000 Common components 100% 100% 100% 76%
Engine 432.000 432.000 432.000 - Engine 24% 24% 24% 0%
Chassis 198.000 198.000 198.000 198.000 Chassis 11% 11% 11% 11%
Vehicle 414.000 414.000 414.000 414.000 Vehicle 23% 23% 23% 23%
Electric Components 360.000 360.000 360.000 360.000 Electric Components 20% 20% 20% 20%
Equipments 396.000 396.000 396.000 396.000 Equipments 22% 22% 22% 22%

*&** Calculate By LPEM Compare With ICE

Source: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/prj/hou/hou031/hou31-2-4.pdf (Estimated by
Japan Energy Economic Research Institute)
31
Impact of Electrified Vehicle to National Economic
Electrified vehicle has opportunity to give good contribution towards national economic if all of the component can be
localized, Therefore Step-by-step shifting of Electrified Vehicles is necessary to create economic scale of electrified
component industry (To be localized)

Additional Loses % Output

Component of Component of Changes of % National % National % Man
Automotive Automotive Automotive Output GDP Power
Sector Sector Sector
HEV Only 18,51% 0% 20,30% 0,33% 0,32% 0,21%

PHEV Only 33,33% 0% 36,54% 0,60% 0,57% 0,37%

BEV Only 43,80% - 20,00% 26,10% 0,40% 0,36% 0,21%

Electrified
30,97% - 3,66% 27,31% 0,48% 0,46% 0,29%
Vehicle
Working Population : 108,207,767 (People)

32
Summary

33
Summary of Interim Result
■ Introduction of Electrified Vehicle could bring positive effect to Indonesia by potentially
giving additional component industry and contribute to lower CO2 emission.
* Shifting to electrified vehicle potentially increase 20% - 30% automotive component
* CO2 Emission will decrease at least ± 18% from BAU

■ According to the simulation, In order to introduce Electrified Vehicle need to manage price
gap between ICE and Electrified vehicle
* 7 – 10% is average price gap to achieve 20% electrified vehicle

■ Need to study proper fiscal support (Incentive) to achieve Government target 20% of
electrified vehicle in 2025 while managing government income
(I.e. Tax reform, market incentive, more user benefit for electrified vehicle, etc)

34
Attachment

35
 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (Sedan)
[No Price Drop Scenario]
CtB S1 CtB S2
6,000 16,000

14,000
5,000

12,000

4,000
10,000

3,000 8,000

6,000
2,000

4,000

1,000
2,000

- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)
 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (MPV)
[No Price Drop Scenario]
CtB MPV1 CtB MPV2
45,000,000 7,000,000

40,000,000
6,000,000
35,000,000
5,000,000
30,000,000

25,000,000 4,000,000

20,000,000 3,000,000

15,000,000
2,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
5,000,000

- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)
 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (SUV & LCGC)
[No Price Drop Scenario] 70,000
CtB SUV2

CtB SUV1
60,000
35,000
50,000
30,000
40,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
-
5,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

- HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)

CtB LCGC
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)

 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (MPV)
[With Price Drop Scenario]

CtB MPV1 CtB MPV2

30,000,000 4,500,000

4,000,000
25,000,000
3,500,000

20,000,000 3,000,000

2,500,000
15,000,000
2,000,000

10,000,000 1,500,000

1,000,000
5,000,000
500,000

- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)
 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (SUV & LCGC)
[With Price Drop Scenario] 45,000
CtB SUV2

40,000
CtB SUV1
35,000
20,000
30,000
18,000
25,000
16,000
14,000 20,000
12,000 15,000
10,000 10,000
8,000 5,000
6,000 -
4,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2,000
HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)
-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)

CtB LCGC
12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)

 Cost to be Incentivized by Segment (Sedan)
[With Price Drop Scenario]
CtB S1 CtB S2
3,500 12,000

3,000
10,000

2,500
8,000

2,000
6,000
1,500

4,000
1,000

2,000
500

- -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined) HEV only PHEV only BEV only Electric Car (combined)