• From http://www.ucsusa.

org/ssi/biodiversity/population-and-environment-series/population-forest-
linkage.html
What is demography?

Demography = The study of human populations

Figure from: http://www.ecofuture.org/pop/facts/exponential70.html

I. Measures of growth/health:
• Crude birth rate (CBR) = Number of live
births per 1,000 people in a given
population per year

• Crude death rate (CDR) = Number of deaths

per 1,000 people in a given population per
year

*** Both CBR and CDR are usually express as number,

with the “per thousand” assumed.
 Example: The average world CBR in 2000 was 22 and
the average CDR was 9.
And…
• Life Expectancy – Number of years a
newborn can be expected to live

• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)–

Deaths before 1st birthday per
1000 live births
II. Fertility:

Total fertility rate (TFR, a.k.a. fecundity) =

An estimate of the number of children a
woman will produce over her lifetime if
she follows patterns of the current year
Replacement-level fertility = number of
children a couple must bear to replace
themselves

What do you predict about replacement

level fertility in more developed nations
compared to developing nations?
III. What increases populations?
• Fertility/Birth Rate
• Immigration = people moving in
 Displaced by war, natural
disasters, environmental damage,
economic hardship
What affects birth rates?
• Importance of children in workforce
• Rural vs. Urban
• Governmental structures/agencies/programs
• Costs of raising children
• Educational/employment opportunities for women
• Infant mortality rate
• Average age of women at first childbirth
• Average marriage age
• Availability of pensions
• Availability of birth control/abortions
• Economic status
• Religious and cultural beliefs
IV. What decreases populations?
• Death

• Emigration= people moving elsewhere

(same reasons as immigration—war,
famine, natural disasters,
environmental damage, economic
hardship)
What affects death rates?
• Improvement in medicine/public health
• Improved sanitation, hygiene
• Availability of insecticides
• Safer water supplies
• Better nutrition
• More food/better food distribution

• Diseases (e.g. AIDS)

• Increased violence
• Natural disasters
 V. Calculating Population Change
In general:
Population Change = (birth + immigration) – (death + emigration)

Simple calculations can be achieved by neglecting migration:

Change = (Births – Deaths)

R (in %) = Rate of natural population change (need size and time)

R = (births / 1,000 people – deaths / 1,000 people ) X 100

R = (CBR – CDR) / 10
PRACTICE CALCULATIONS
CBR = 15, CDR = 10
CBR = 9, CDR = 10
CBR = 40, CDR = 20
 Population Growth through Natural Increase, 1775–2000

“Demographic trap”

Figure from:
http://www.prb.org/Content/NavigationMenu/PRB/Educators/Human_Population/Future_Gro
wth/Natural_Increase_and_Future_Growth.htm
So why has the world population been
growing??
a. People in developing countries having more and
more children (i.e. higher birth rates)
b. Decrease in the death rates with improved
medicine/public health
c. Worldwide increase in birth rates, with the
exception of Europe.
d. Both A and B.
e. Both A and C.
f. All of the above.
 So why has the world population been
growing??
• Decline in death rates over the past 100
years is sole reason.

• In 1950’s the TFR for women in developing

nations was 6 children…today the average
is 3.1.

Birth rates are falling but not as fast as death rates!

VI. ZPG
• Zero population growth= population size
remains stable
Birth + Immigration = Death + Emigration
R = 0 %

Why time lag for ZPG?

Because of the age structure of populations…

• 70 to 100 years for population to stabilize once
fertility rates have dropped to or below
replacement levels  Population Momentum
More recent projections…

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/09/140918-population-global-united-nations-2100-boom-africa/
VII. Age structure of populations
(a.k.a. population pyramids)
• Age Structure: The proportion of a population at
each age level. Displayed as percent (or total
number) males and females in 5-year age
categories.
• There are 3 basic age structures:
– Expansive (rapid growth)
– Stationary (slow/no growth)
– Regressive (negative growth)
Population Pyramids—which is
which?

Images adapted from:

http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/pyramids.htm
 Age structure of populations
(a.k.a. population pyramids)
• Age Structure: The proportion of a population at
each age level.
• Displayed as percent (or total number) males
and females in 5-year age categories.
• There are 3 basic age structures:
– Expansive (rapid growth)
– Stationary (slow/no growth)
– Regressive (negative growth)
Population Pyramids—which is
which?

Images adapted from:

http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/pyramids.htm
More Population Age Structure Review

Which r-values go with which type?

CBR = 16, CDR = 10

CBR = 9, CDR = 11

CBR = 42, CDR = 20

 Demographic Transition
As countries become more developed/more
industrialized, two things happen consistently:
• First
– The death rates decline

• And then
– Their birth rates decline
There are 4 stages to demographic
transition

• Pre-industrial
• Transitional
• Industrial
• Post-industrial
Stage 1: Pre-industrial
• Pre-industrial- high birth, high death—
balanced
• MOST of human history with growth
rates of less than 0.05%
• High death rates caused by:
– Lack of clean drinking water
– Lack of efficient sewage disposal
– Poor food hygiene
Stage 2: Transitional
• Transitional- Death rates dropping, but
birth rates remain high
• The decline in the death rate is due
initially to two factors:
– improvements in food, water supply
– significant improvements in public health
that reduced mortality, particularly in
childhood.
 What are differences in
the transitional stage
between Mexico and
Sweden?

Figure from: http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

Figure from: http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
Stage 3: Industrial
• Industrial- Death rates low now, birth
rates dropping, due to a variety of
causes including:
– Increasing urbanization
– Increasing female literacy and employment
– Improvements in contraceptive technology
 What can you observe
on this graph??

Figure from: http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm

 What happened to
Mexico’s population
between 1980 and
1998??

Figure from: http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm (from:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html)
Stage 4: Postindustrial

• Postindustrial- birth rates drop to equal

death, then may decline BELOW death
rates
• If birth rates go below death rates the
population starts…
– DECREASING
Figure from: http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm