Probabilistic Risk Assessment

- Bayesian Estimation -
Centre for Risk, Integrity, and Safety Engineering (C-RISE)

Course instructor:
Dr. Mohammed Taleb-Berrouane | PhD in Process Safety Engineering

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Weibull model
• A flexible distribution that is used widely in reliability is
the Weibull distribution.

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Effect of the shape parameter

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Effect of the shape parameter

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Effect of the shape parameter

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Effects of scale parameter
(characteristic life parameter)

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Effects of scale parameter
(characteristic life parameter)

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Event frequency: Poisson model

• Events occur over a continuum (time, space) at an

average constant rate, λ.
• The occurrence of an event in a given interval is assumed
to be independent of that in any other non-overlapping
interval.
• This distribution is used to describe the occurrence of
initiating events (IEs) in risk assessment.

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Event frequency: Poisson model

• The Poisson distribution gives the probability of exactly

k events occurring in (0,t):

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Bayesian Estimation

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Bayesian estimation

• Bayesian parameter estimation is comprised of two

main steps:

1. The first step involves using available information to

fit a prior distribution to a parameter, such as a
failure rate.
2. The second step of Bayesian estimation involves
incorporating additional or new data to update the
prior distribution. This gives a posterior distribution,
which better represents the parameter of interest. This
step is often referred to as “Bayesian Updating.”

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BE for a continuous variable

• The Bayes’ Theorem for continuous PDF, estimates the

parameter for posterior PDF f(θ/t) using the following
relationships:

• Here θ be a parameter of interest, h(θ) be a continuous

prior PDF and l(t/θ) be the likelihood function based on
sample data t.

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BE for a discrete variable

• For a discrete PMF, the Bayes’ Theorem can be written

as:

• Pr(θi/ε): the conditional probability of θi given ε, or the

posterior probability for θi ;
• Pr(θi) = prior probability (can be expressed using a
PMF): and
• Pr(ε/θi) = the probability of obtaining the new information
(ε) given a certain value (θi) for the parameter.

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BE for a discrete variable

• The following notation for the posterior distribution is

also common:

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Prior distributions

• Prior distributions can be specified in different forms.

Possible forms include:

A. Parametric (gamma, lognormal, beta):

• Gamma or lognormal for rates of events
• Beta, truncated lognormal for event probabilities per
demand
B. Numerical (histogram, CDF values/percentiles)

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Selection of Likelihood function

• Poisson Process: The Poisson distribution is the proper

likelihood function

• Bernoulli Process: The Binomial distribution is the

proper likelihood function:

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Conjugate prior distribution

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 Any questions?

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Useful software!

• GeNie Software: https://www.bayesfusion.com/download

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Announcements

• PRA needs practice!

• Feedback about the midterm exam…

• Assignment 3.

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