BreBxit

Professor Ioan Mircea Pascu

2018
UK as a World Power
1. UK - creator of the current international system

2. The role of the Royal Navy

1. main engine for internal development

2. instrument for the defense of Britain (Empire)

3. instrument for power projection

3. The role of the WWII in the demise of Britain’s world power status (the Commonwealth)

4. Advocate for European Unity in the bipolar world dominated by the USA and USSR

1. The initiation of the Truman Doctrine in 1947

2. The withdrawal from the East of Suez (1968 - early 1970s)

3. EU membership in 1973 (after two failed attempts)

What is Europe to Britain
1. The major tenet of Britain’s security: to prevent a power
to get control over the continent and become a threat
to Britain (see action against France, Germany and
Russia)
2. The traditional role - balancer (using its weight to keep
the balance of power in Europe)
3. EU - multiplier of UK’s power
4. Maintenance of key strategic points (Gibraltar, Cyprus,
Malta)
Towards a multipolar world
1. The International System is moving from “unipolarity” to
“multipolarity”
2. Britain perceived it as offering new opportunities for
acting alone, based on the its power, contacts and
experience.
3. Britain cannot be sure of success and others - tempted
to take a similar road - are not … Britain
Brexit
1. Public “disinformation” (half truths, fake news, outright lies)

2. The advance of “populism” - Nigel Farage and UKIP

3. The tabloid press (Murdoch) and foreign involvement (Russia)

4. Short-sightedness and complacency on the part of Conservative

leadership

5. The neglect of the deep dissatisfaction of large categories, particularly

in old industrial areas (not compensated by large urban agglomerations
- London -, financial circles, young people and regions like Scotland and
Northern Ireland)
 From now on
1. Both the EU and the UK are sailing in “unchartered” waters - never done
before

2. Art. 50 has been activated in March 2017, initiating a period of two years of
intense negotiations to reach o bilateral agreement with the EU

3. In Britain, three schools of thought (main difference - membership to the

common market):
1. hard Brexit (shared by the current Gov)
2. smooth Brexit
3. Blind Brexit (September 2018) - a scenario where the UK leaves the EU
without clarity on the terms of a future trade deal

4. No chance for “revisitation” of decision to leave the EU (Britain will lose

authority and privileges acquired until now - see the Agreement reached before
the referendum) - the only option, to convince themselves it was not a mistake

6
State of play
1. The major problems facing both sides:

1. The EU:

1. The financial settlement

2. The status of EU citizens in Britain and of British citizens in the EU

3. Border with Ireland (Gibraltar)

2. The UK:

1. Trade

2. Migration

3. Divorce bill

4. Rights of citizens

5. Border with Ireland

2. The UK countermeasures: while the EU is stressing unity in negotiations, the UK wants opening of bilateral
talks and stresses the continued involvement in the security and defense of the continent (to honor the
major security tenet)
Current situation
• The Chequers plan (12 July 2018) - a key white
paper concerning Brexit, published by the UK
Government. Lays out the type of relationship the
UK seeks to have with the EU after Brexit
• "The white paper proposes a free trade area for goods to maintain
frictionless trade, supported by a common rulebook and a new facilitated
customs arrangement, but only for the rules that are necessary to provide
frictionless trade at the border."
 EU summit ( 17-18 October)- impasse over a deal
on the “ backstop” to avoid a hard border on the
island of Ireland.
- Mrs May signalled a possible extension after 2020
for the transitional arrangements that would keep the
UK in the EU’s single market and customs union.
 Possible future effects of Brexit for UK
 Losing access to the Internal Market that might lead to
higher taxes for export (causing the British companies  Main advantage: control on
to be less competitive) and higher taxes for imports immigration
(inflation & lowering the living standards for citizens)  outside the EU, Britain could
maintain the free-trade
 London, the UK’s financial center, built as an EU hub
provisions of the Single Market
might collapse and the international financial services
without its regulatory
might move their European headquarters to other EU provisions (EU “red tape”) and
states without free movement of
 losing the advantages of EU state-of-the-art technologies labour (Brexit main argument-
(environmental protection, research and development, which is an illusion as the past 2
and energy) years show us)

 another referendum for Scotland to leave the UK

 pound’s depreciation
Possible future effects of Brexit for the
EU
 Strengthening the anti-immigration
parties throughout Europe.
(destruction of EU ???)
 Greater German dominance on EU
 Over the longer term, the
greater risks to the EU are
political in nature rather
economic
 Losing UK’s input in the
multilateral arrangements
(humanitarian, fight against
poverty, international development
etc.) - possible blow to EU soft
power ???
 an opportunity to substantially re-
think the institutional structure of
the euro area
 EU unity has strengthened
 window of opportunity to
restructure Europe around two
systems—a federalizing political
union and a loose confederal free-
trade area
 Slowing down the “centrifugal
forces” with the union
Yes Minister — Why Britain Joined the European Union

 https://youtu.be/EkpS-yBj7gY