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You are on page 1of 34

Problem

Particulate Matter (PM)

Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

Ozone (O3)

Sulphur oxides (SOx)

In Lombardy, all towns systematically

exceed the limit of 35 days per year with

average daily PM10 concentration below

50 mg/m3

Air quality models

DETERMINISTIC MODELS

Box/Puff

Special

conditions

The Gaussian plume model

Consider again the general transport-diffusion equation:

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 , t ) C C C 2C 2C 2C

vz1 v z2 v z3 Dz 2 Dz 2 Dz 2

t z1 z2 z3 z11

z22

z3 3

Under the following assumptions:

• Stationary process (no change in time)

• Homogeneous and flat spatial domain

• Wind speed V direction along z1 (only) i.e. v=0 along other axes

• Negligible dispersion along z1

• No chemical reaction

• Only a (constant) source in (0,0,0) equal to Q

• Known background concentration Cb

Q v z 2 z 2

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 )

exp 2

3

Cb

4z1 Dz2 Dz3

4 z1 Dz2 Dz3

The Gaussian plume model - 2

Denoting:

z1 z1

2 Dz 2

2

y 2 Dz 3

2

z

(dispersion coefficients)

V V

The equation can be written:

Q 1 z2 z2

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp 22 32 Cb

2V y z 2 y z

which is the equation of a double Gaussian surface with standard deviations y and z.

the emission “height” and decreases

with distance; along the other two axes

the distribution is Gaussian with

increasing dispersion.

The Gaussian plume model - 3

Q 1 z2 z2

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp 22 32 Cb

2V y z 2 y z

The concentration in each point of the space is PROPORTIONAL to the emission Q

and INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL to the wind speed V.

- The plume is (mostly) emitted at a certain elevation He 0

- The pollutant does not diffuse in the soil (perfectly reflective)

Q 1 z 22 1 z3 H e 2 1 z3 H e 2

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp exp

2

exp

Cb

2V y z 2

2

2 y 2 z 2 z

The Gaussian plume model - 4

The concentration produced by the source in (0,0,He) is summed to the concentration

that would have been produced by a “virtual” equal source in (0,0,He).

the actual high of the stack H.

This is due to:

- The inertia of the emitted plume

- The temperature difference with the

environment

The Gaussian plume model - 5

Various formulas have been proposed for the calculation of the effective high.

They differ for:

Ex. 1

H e H (1.5Ve d 0.00004Qh )V

where Ve is the speed of emitted gas, d is the stack diameter, Qh is the enthalpy of

the emitted gas (which depends on the temperature difference)

H e H d Ve /V

Ex. 1/ 4

considerations. See, for instance, “Effective stack high – Plume rise” by US EPA.

Exercise

A constant SO2 emission for a coal fired power plant produces a 30 mg/m3

concentration on a sensor 2 km apart when the wind speed is 5 m/s.

What will be the concentration when reducing the emission by 30% when

the wind speed is 3 m/s?

o 25.2 mg/m3

o 12.6 mg/m3

o 35.0 mg/m3

o 28.5 mg/m3

The role of meteorology

The form of the plume thus depends on the wind speed and direction, the air

temperature, the overall stability of the atmosphere.

For the application of the Gaussian model, they must be CONSTANT.

hours or less) and the different situations are often defined by a range of meteo

values.

may span 360° (real number) is

categorized in 36 (0°-9°; 10°-19°;…) or

18 (0°-19°;…) classes.

values, e.g. wind speed and direction, in a

certain year is reported in suitable

tables ( “portolani”)

The role of meteorology - 2

The stability of the atmosphere is particularly important since it determines how fast

the plume mixes with the local atmosphere.

To classify the atmospheric stability conditions one normally refers to the natural

temperature decrease with the height (adiabatic gradient): dT/dz3=g/Cp=0.0098°C m-1

the adiabatic one instability

adiabatic one neutral conditions

the adiabatic one stability

Pasquill-Gifford classes

A classical way to classify stability conditions is to refer to the classes proposed by

Pasquill and Gifford (1977) :

A Extremely unstable <-0.019 25

B Moderately unstable -0.019 -0.017 20

C Slightly unstable -0.017 -0.015 15

D Neutral conditions -0.015 0.005 10

E Slightly stable 0.005 0.015 5

F Moderately stable 0.015 0.04 2.5

G Extremely stable >0.04 1.7

Pasquill-Gifford classes - 2

Other classification are possible:

Stability and dispersion

Given the stability conditions, different formulas have been proposed to parametrize

the dispersion.

Ex. Briggs (1969, 1971, 1972), where x is the distance from the source (100m<x<10km)

and we compute average half-hourly concentrations:

Stability class

The effect of

buildings in a

urban

environment

increases the

dispersion of

pollutant

Stability class (higher

values)

Atmospheric stability

E(moderately stable) B (moderately unstable)

The climatological model

How to compute an “average” concentration over a long period (one month, one year)?

disregarding the transient between one condition and the following.

Assuming that the concentration Cm is computed for the meteorological condition m and

that condition has probability pm of occurrence, then the average concentration

Ca ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) Cm ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) pm

m

which means that prevailing meteo conditions are weighted more.

Note that a meteo condition is defined by a class of stability, of wind speed, of wind

direction, and of temperature.

Note that anyway an annual average varies less and thus it is easier to replicate.

The performances of the model may strongly vary with the position.

(Standard) model performances

Several performance indicators have been proposed (and partly standardized) for air

quality models. They can be grouped into two categories:

- General statistics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R),

Normalized Mean Bias (NMB), Normalized Mean Standard Deviation (NMSD) and

Centered Root Mean Square Error (CRMSE) (M model results, O measures).

(Standard) model performances 2

- Episodes (hits = correct values above a given threshold)

Note that, given that the norms refer to “any station above the threshold” modelling

the location correctly may non be relevant for decision purposes.

Other relevant meteo conditions

The temperature gradient changes sign with elevation

Low level

temperature

inversion

High level

temperature

inversion

Mountain breeze: uphill

during the day, downhill

during the night

sea during the night (TIBL = Thermal Internal

Boundary Layer)

Gaussian correction for inversion

Assumption similar to terrain reflection, i.e. many virtual sources above

the inversion layer (and below the terrain surface)

Inversion layer

Q z 22

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp 2

2V y z

y

exp

z 3 H e 2 Jhi 2

exp

z 3 H e 2 Jhi 2

Cb

J 2

2

2 z 2 z

The urban canyon

Natural (wind) plus traffic induced

turbulence must be taken into account.

Traffic is prevailing for low wind speed.

Important: (modal) emissions in a real

urban street are much higher close to the

crossroad.

Particulate matter

The standard Gaussian plume formulation, can be adjusted to account for PM deposition.

The plume axis is deviated by a certain slope that depends on the deposition speed of

the various particle sizes.

Subdividing the emission in N classes, k=1,…, N

N

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 )

Q (k ) z 22

exp 2 exp

z 3 H e 2

exp

z 3 H e 2

Cb

k 1 2V y z y 2 z 2 z

2 2

Where:

Q(k) is the emission in class k,

He=H+DH vg(k)z1/V ,

vg(k) is the dry deposition

speed of class k, computed as

d 2 ( k ) g ( k )

vg (k )

18m

d(k) and (k) being diameter and density of class k, and m the dynamic viscosity of air.

Recommended code

AERMOD Modeling System - A steady-state plume model that incorporates air

dispersion based on planetary boundary layer turbulence structure and scaling

concepts, including treatment of both surface and elevated sources, and both

simple and complex terrain.

Fraction

of the

plume

Stable

conditions

Unstable

conditions

The Puff model

A critical aspect of the Gaussian equation:

Q 1 z2 z2

C ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp 22 32 Cb

2V y z 2 y z

is that it cannot be used when the wind speed V is low (< 0,5 m/s).

We can discretize the emission in a series of puffs, each moved by wind (center of

gravity) and with an internal Gaussian distribution.

First, the position z1c , z2c , z3c of the

center of gravity of each puff is

computed (advection).

Then contribution C’ of each puff (of

mass M) to the concentration

in z1 , z2 , z3(dispersion) is computed:

C ' ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp

2 x y z

3/ 2

x2

y

2

z

2

The Puff model - 2

The advantage is that it can be used in calm and varying wind conditions (and is still

linear in the emission).

The disadvantage is that it requires more data and calculations.

3D wind fields.

process inside each puff.

Recommended: CALPUFF

Long range transport

For long range effect to be meaningful, the pollutant must decay slowly (> several

days).

Diffusion is negligible wrt advection.

Winds at high elevations are usually much stronger (and persistent).

Cesium-137 Chernobyl,

April1986

Cesium-137 Fukushima

September 2011

Shinmoedake volcano (Japan), Oct 12, 2017

2 km

Linear models and planning

Assume a certain meteo condition m, and a known position of a RECEPTOR, its

concentration is (the SOURCE can be always assumed in (0,0,0)):

QS 1 z2 z2

CR ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) exp 22 32 Cb

2Vm y z 2 y z

where y z refer to a specific position and meteo condition.

The formula means that, in this case, the concentration at the receptor site can be

written as

CR ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) a SR QS Cb

m

i.e. with a proportionality constant a depending only on the meteo condition and

the relative position of receptor and source (= a linear S/R function).

If the source is constant for a long period (e.g. a year) and we know the probability

pm of occurrence of each meteo condition, we can compute the average pollution

at the receptor site due to the source:

CR ( z1 , z2 , z3 ) QS a SRm pm Cb

m

Linear models and planning - 2

We can thus solve problems such as:

- What is the maximum emission that a certain source may have without creating

an intolerable average concentration at a given location?

max Q

Q

s.t. CR Q a SRm pm CbR C a linear problem

m

- What is the maximum emission that guarantees an acceptable average

concentration with a given probability (e.g. number of days per year)?

M M

max Q s.t. CR Q a SR pm CbR C ;

m

p m P

Q

m 1 m 1

a linear problem for known set of meteo condition; a mixed integer program if

the meteo conditions have to be selected

Q, y

max Q s.t. CR Q a SRm pm ym CbR C ; p m ym P ym 0,1 m 1,...

m m

Linear models and planning - 3

- What is the minimum abatement cost of a set of sources that guarantees a given

concentration at a receptor site?

Q

s.t. CR Qi a iRm pm CbR C

i i m

where Costi(Qi) are the abatement costs at sources i that depend on the

emission.

- How large are the emissions at given locations Si that determine a measured

concentration at a certain site (source apportionment)?

Qi i bR

a

i

m

Q

iR

C C observed

2

,R R 1,... m 1,...

Q

m ,R i

Linear models and planning - 4

These can easily be extended to a network of receptors.

Find the optimal abatement rates of a set of plants, to guarantee a given average

concentration C* on a given measurement network.

i=1,…, N: plants

j=1,…,S: measurement stations

m=1,…, M: meteorological conditions

Ei : planned plant emission (decision variable)

EiCLE: emission corresponding to the Current Legislation

max Cost EiCLE Ei The cost is a function of

E

i

the abated emission

ij pm Ei C *

m

a m

i

j 1,..., S

Ei Ei i 1,..., N

MFR

emission obtained adopting the Maximum Feasible Reduction .

Linear models and planning - 5

Find the best position of a plant with emission E(j) on a grid of feasible positions g.

m=1,…, M: meteorological conditions

j=1,…,S: receptor sites with population density Pj

g=1,…, G: grid elements in the domain

The concentration is weighted by the population

g

min C j Pj

j

density as this is related to the health damages

C j aijm pm E ( g ) g 1,..., G

m

A linear INTEGER programming problem (the solution is a grid position g)

WARNING: the objective function has no physical meaning.

Piacenza

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