1

From Estimation of Air Pollution

to Assessment of Health Impact
 2
Motor transport
contributes about 60-
80 % of chemical air
pollution and noise on
urban territories
 3
Changes in vehicle fleet structure
in St. Petersburg in 2003-2013, 1000 units

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Buses LDV +HDV Pas. Cars

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Buses 18,7 19,5 21,8 23,7 22,4 22,0 21,5 21 22,4 21,5
HDV 104,8 106,2 114,7 121,7 122,5 117,2 129,5 139 201,0 220
Pas. cars 1013,6 1063,5 1165,6 1284,6 1388,8 1421,2 1462,3 1526 1537,5 1741,3
 Negative effects 4

Environmental Infrastructure facilities

Health effects
effects effects

4
 Monitoring 5

City level - Social effects

Street level - Individual effects

Vehicle emissions → Dispersion

of pollutants → Air pollution Yearly vehicle emissions →
and noise level → Individual Increase in concentrations →
health risks Impact → External costs

Zoning of the city

 Methodology
1 step 2 step 3 step

Activity data, models, Estimation and forecast of vehicle Individual health risks
scenarios emissions and noise effect

Vehicle categories
LOCAL LEVEL
Zoning of city territory
Estimation and forecast of air according to the level of
Emission factors pollution (concentrations of chemical and noise
pollutants) pollution
Noise level
Noise effect

Model for local level (street MESO-LEVEL (CITY LEVEL) Impact estimation
air pollution individual →
health risks) Yearly Gross Emissions and Noise and forecast
External costs
Model for meso-level
(urban or region level)

Choice of scenarios and POLICY DECISIONS

Scenarios and measures
measures
6
6
Tests on special 7
stands
Testing equipment
for trucks and large
buses
engines
Directive 2007/46/EC of the
European Parliament and of the
Council of 5 September 2007
Resolution of the Government
of the Russian Federation
N 824 from 06.10.2011

Testing
equipment for
cars, vans and
minibuses
Directive 2009/40/EC of the
European Parliament and of
the Council of 6 May 2009
Resolution of the Government
of the Russian Federation
N 720 from 10.09.2009
 8
Characterization and control of engine exhaust emissions
NОx emissions, g/km
Volkswagen Touareg (Еuro 4, diesel)
1.2

NOx , g/km
1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
speed, km/h

Measurements
of
concentrations
of toxic
substances
while driving
 Model for the estimation of air pollution (street level) 9

Emissions from Modeling approach for the dispersion of pollutants

traffic flows near roads (street level)

L k L q 3 q 3  q
МL   М k ,i  Gk  rV , г / с   (ui  W κ )
g   Ki
jι  q  S
3600 1 t i 1 xi i 1 xi xi
i k,i

L
Mk,i is the emission factor of an i-
q is the concentration;
pollutant by a k-vehicle category,
ui & Ki are the components of the wind speed
g/km;
turbulent diffusion coefficient along xi;
k is the vehicle category;
wg is the speed of PM sedimentation;
Gk is the vehicle flow rate, vehicle/h;
kji is the Kronecker symbol equal to 1 when the
rVk,I is the coefficient considering
indices coincide and to zero when they do not match;
dependence of emission rates on
a is the coefficient considering pollutant
vehicle speed;
transformation in the air
L is the path length, km

Categories of vehicles: Pollutants:

1) Passenger cars; CO - carbon oxide,
2) Light Duty Vans (LDV) < 3500 kg;
HC - hydrocarbons,
3) Heavy Duty Vans (HDV) 3500-
12000 kg; NO and NO2 - nitrogen oxides,
4) Heavy Duty Vans (HDV) > 12000 PM – particle matter,
kg; SO2 - sulfur dioxide, CO2 - carbon dioxide;
5) Buses > 3500 kg formaldehyde; benz-a-pyrene
Maps of street air pollution by NO, NO2, PM10 and СО along St. Petersburg Ring 10
Road
 Air quality monitoring stations in St. Petersburg 11

Measured hazardous
substances
The gas Active/
analyzers passive
sampling
Nitrogen Aromatic
dioxide hydrocarbon
Monoxide Рhenol
nitrogen
Сarbon Аmmonium
monoxide
Sulfur hydrogen
dioxide chloride
The air quality street
РМ10 3,4-
monitoring net was created benzpyrene
and maintained with the
РМ2,5
participation of the
Оzone
meteorological Institute of the
Republic of Finland (FMI) and
the Swedish Institute of
hydrology and meteorology
It includes 21 stationary stations, 2 weather stations, 2 mobile laboratories, a mobile
metrological and technical laboratory, technical and data center.
12
 Neural network model for the estimation of vehicle related 13
air pollution (city level)
According to the Gaussian model, the dispersion of pollutants in the air obeys the normal distribution
law:
  
1   x  x0  ut   y  y0  vt   z  z0  wt 
2 2 2

Q exp    
 2   
 x  t    z  t
2 2 2


 t

q(t , x, y, z )   y
(1)
 
3
2 t  x y z

where q is the concentration of pollutant (g/m3); Q is the emission rate of the pollutant (g m-1s-1); t is the
time (s), x0, y0, z0 are the coordinates of the emission source (m); u, v, w are the components of wind
speed; ϬX, ϬY, ϬZ are the mean square deviations of the concentration at a time t by the axes OX, OY, OZ
Using the principle of superposition, it is easy to obtain from equation (1) a formula for the
concentration of pollutant (2):
  2 
1  x  x0  ut   y  y0  vt   z  z0  wt   
2 2

Q exp     
 2   x  2 t    z  t 
2 2

  t 
q(t , x, y, z )    y
dx0 dy0 dz0 (2)
 
3
 2 t  x y z

Let’s substitute the integral by a finite sum:

  2 
1   x  x0  ut   y  y0  vt   z  z0  wt   
2 2

Q exp   
 2   x  2 t    z  t  
2 2

  t (3)

N
q(t , x, y, z, u, v, w)   K i
y

 
3
i 1 2 t  x y z

where Ki are the numerical coefficients; i = 0,1,2,3, …, n are the integration points.
 NO2 air pollution, city level 14

а) b)

NO2 is accumulating on Vassil’evsky island and above the Gulf of Finland (a, b) in calm
weather, and in the Centre of the city (c, d) at a weak South-westerly wind; 5 neurons.

c) d)
 Risk Assessment for Transport Related Toxic Air Pollutants 15
Health risk is the probability, or chance, that exposure to a hazardous substance
will make people sick
Less Serious More Serious
(non life- Health Risk = Hazard x Exposure (life-threating)
threating)
Skin rash Nausea Asthma Lung damage Cancer
Cough Throat Chronic Nervous system Hart attack
irritation Bronchitis damage
Headache Dizziness Birth defects
Risk Assessment Process
Hazard
Identification
What health
Exposure problems are
Assessment caused by air
pollution?
Dose-Response
How much of Assessment
pollutants do people What are the health
inhale during a problems at
specific time period? different
How many people are Risk exposures?
exposed? Characterization
What is the extra
risk of health
problems in the
exposed
population?
Model linking pollutant concentration and noise level with individual health risks
Noise effect → individual health risk
РN У N 
1  x2 
RУ N    exp  2 dx PN У N   aN  bN * lgУ N  CN 
N 2   2 N 
Pollutant concentration → individual health risk
PX У Х 
1  x2 
R X У Х    exp   dx PX У Х   a X  bX * lg У Х  C X 
 X 2   2 2
X 
Combined effect of noise and air pollution → individual health risk
2 2 G 1  N , R  a N
 У*   У* 
У N R   10
~
 N   Х  1 bN
 СN ,
   
 У N R    У Х R  
~ ~
* *

G 1  Х , R a Х

У Х R   10
~
bХ
 СХ ,
Concentration n
referred to the
C   ri  riБ  Ci ,
[С Б ] Coefficient of R
basic substance
[Ci ]
 ri anthropogenic K
[ i 1]
(СО), mg/m3 impact RH
16
 Integral Risk Assessment for Transport Related Toxic Air
Pollutants and Noise

Health effect Individual

Health Risk
Mortality 1-0.9

Individual health risk

Severe Acute 0.8-0.6
Acute 0.6-0.5
Severe chronic 0.5-0.2
Chronic 0.2-0.1
No harmful effects <0.1
Minimal Risk Levels 0.0-0.05

17
Zoning of the city by the level of integral factor of health risk
from cumulative effects of chemical air pollution and noise

K = R / Rн

K is the integral factor of health risk

from cumulative effects of chemical
air pollution and noise
R is the health risk from cumulative
effects of chemical air pollution and
noise
Rн is the risk from cumulative effects
of chemical air pollution and noise
corresponding to Limit Values

18
 City level - Social effects
Transport related air pollution
Assessment
COPERT IV is a software tool
used for the calculation of air
pollutant and greenhouse gas
emissions from road transport.
The European Environment
Agency (EEA) coordinates the
development of the software.
Air pollution
social effects assessment
ExternE - External Costs of Energy
ExternE-Methodology is a technique of
calculating environmental external
costs basing on the Impact-Pathway-
Approach
19
 Impact Pathway Assessment
Source – Road Transport
______________

Emission ( e.g. PM kg/year)

Dispersion
(e.g. atmospheric dispersion model)
_____________________

Increase in concentration at receptor sites

(e.g. PM, µg/m3)

Dose-response function (or concentration-

response function)
_________________________

Impact (e.g. cases of asthma due to

elevated ambient concentration of PM per
10000 habitats)

Monetary valuation
______________

Cost (e.g. cost of asthma)

20
 Urban Transport Emission Factors (2013) 21

City transport Fleet СО РМ10 SO2 NOX

number Fleet, One, Fleet, One, fleet, One, fleet, One,
thousand ton/year thousand kg/year thousand kg/year thousand kg/ye
ton/year ton/year ton/year ton/year ar
Urban Motor Transport
Cars 1 618390 274 0,169 0,06 0,037 2,7 1,67 11,6 7,2

HDV > 3,5 т 134690 8,3 0,062 1,26 9,35 1,34 9,95 24,5 181,9

Buses > 7,5 т 20 221 1,4 0,069 0,23 11,37 0,25 12,36 4,24 209,7

Urban Electric Transport

Trams 787 0,141 0,180 0,011 13,97 0,020 25,41 0,174 221,0

Trolleybuses 647 0,127 0,196 0,009 13,91 0,018 27,82 0,157 242,7

Subway cars 1690 0,71 0,42 0,06 35,5 0,1 59,17 0,87 514,8

21
 Exposure - Health Impact
Impact Category Pollutant / Burden
Human health – PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NOx, O3
mortality
Benzene, Benzo-[a]-pyrene,
1,3-butadiene, Diesel particles
Noise
Human health – PM2.5, PM10, O3, SO2
morbidity PM2.5, PM10, O3
PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO
Benzene, Benzo-[a]-pyrene,
1,3-butadiene, Diesel particles
PM2.5, PM10, O3, NOx
Noise
22
Effects
Reduction in life expectancy
Cancers
Loss of amenity, impact on health
Respiratory hospital admissions
Restricted activity days
Congestive heart failure
Cancer risk (non-fatal)
Cerebro-vascular hospital admissions,
Cases of chronic bronchitis, Cases of
chronic cough in children, Cough in
asthmatics, Lower respiratory
symptoms, Asthma attacks
Myocardial infarction
Angina pectoris
Hypertension
Sleep disturbance
Cost of health impact (including diseases of the upper respiratory
tract, bronchitis, asthma), 2013 23

Rub/case, RF Euro/case, RF Euro/case, EU

(ExternE)
Hospital admission 140000 2000 6600
Emergency room visit 1400 20 187
Bronchitis attacks 2800 40 138
Restricted activity days 2100 30 62
Asthma attacks 2100 30 31
Symptom days 180 2,6 6,3

Pollutant Rub/kg Euro/kg Rub/km Euro/km

Car 0,04 0,01
PM 80 2,0 LDV 0,08 0,02
NOx 20 0,5 HDV 0,22 0,055
SO2 16 0,4 Bus 0,19 0,0475
CO - - Tram 0,3 0,75
HC 4 0,1 Trolleybus 0,42 0,010
CO2 0,20 0,05 Metro car 0,6 0,015
 Long term emission projections from road transport in St. Petersburg
by COPERT 4 in 2015-2030
Reduction in annual motor transport CO Reduction in annual motor transport PM10
emission, tons emission, tons
300000 2000
250000
200000 1500
150000
100000 1000
50000
0 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
Basic Scenario Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Decrease of СО by 3 times Basic Scenario Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Decrease of PM10 by 2 times

Reduction in annual motor transport NOx

emission, tons
44000 The greatest environmental effect
43000
42000
could be achieved by the faster
41000 introduction of stricter Euro 4 - Euro
40000 6 road transport emission standards
39000
38000
and stricter Euro 4 – Euro 5 fuel
37000 quality standards
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Basic Scenario Scenario 2 Scenario 3

NOX emission would not be reduced considerably 24

 25

A continuous increase of the share of passenger cars and buses

working on compressed natural gas (CNG) and biodiesel by 30 % by 2030,
as indicated in the National Transport Strategy, could lead to the
reduction of green house gases emissions, namely, СО2 by 11 % and N2O
by 12 %. As to pollutants, their emissions are expected to be reduced by
7,6 % in respect to CO, by 1,8 % in respect to NOX, by 20 % in respect to
VOCs, and are expected to be grown for NH3 and СН4 by 3 and 4 %,
respectively, in comparison with 2030 of the Basic Scenario.

The introduction of diesel fuel Euro 5 quality standard would reduce

SO2 emissions by 2-2,5 times in 2030 compared to the base 2010
(Scenarios 1-3).

Emissions of heavy metals Pb, Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Se Zn computed by

COPERT 4, would be increased approximately by 1,5 - 2 times between
2010 and 2030.
Impact of passenger cars, LDV, HDV and buses in NOx
emission in 2003, 2012 and 2030

NOx emission, %, 2003 NOx emission, %, 2012

7.9 8.5
34.2 23.3

7.8
51.4
6.5
60.4

Pas. Cars LDV HDV Buses Pas. Cars LDV HDV Buses

NOx emission, %, 2030

If HDV fleet remains as old by 2030 as it

7.8 15.3
6.6 is now, its share in the total NOX emission
would be increased from 57 to 80 % and
70.3 in PM10 from 78 % to 83% in the period
2010-2030.
Pas. Cars LDV HDV Buses 26
 Acknowledgements 27

1) International project “External costs of transport in St.

Petersburg”
Danish Ministry of Transport, 1999-2003

2) International project "Air Quality Governance in ENPI East

Countries”
EuropeAid/129522/C/SER/Multi; Contract № 2010/232-231 , 2011-2014

3) Grant of The Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Project №

14-01-00733-А, 2014-2016

4) Grant from the Government of St. Petersburg in the field of

scientific and technical activity, 2015

5) We thank the Committee on Environment Management,

Environmental Protection and Ecological Safety of the Government
of St. Petersburg for the provision of the data from measuring
stations
THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!