INTRODUCTION TO FSA

One way of ensuring that action is taken

before a disaster occurs is the use a
process known as formal safety
assessment.
This has been described as "a rational
and systematic process for assessing the
risks associated with shipping activity and
for evaluating the costs and benefits of
IMO's options for reducing these risks."
 INTRODUCTION TO FSA
 It can be used as a tool to help evaluate new
regulations or to compare proposed changes
with existing standards. It enables a balance to be
drawn between the various technical and
operational issues, including the human element
and between safety and costs.

 FSA - which was originally developed partly at

least as a response the Piper Alpha disaster of
1988, when an offshore platform exploded in the
North Sea and 167 people lost their lives - is now
being applied to the IMO rule making process.
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On the night of July 6, 1988, a series of violent explosions
and a large fire destroyed the Piper Alpha oil platform in the
North Sea. Only 62 crew members survived out of the 229
personnel on board. Many workers were trapped because
rescue helicopters could not approach when confronted
with flames 100 meters high. The majority of those who
survived jumped from the platform into the rough sea.
 INTRODUCTION TO FSA
The Maritime Safety Committee, at its seventy-
fourth session (30 May to 8 June 2001), and the
Marine Environment Protection Committee, at its
forty-seventh session (4 to 8 March 2002), approved
Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for
use in the IMO rule-making process as set out at
annex.
IMO is likely to adopt FSA in its major review of
Chapter II-2 SOLAS 1974
 WHAT IS FSA?
 “A structured and systematic methodology,
aimed at enhancing maritime safety,
including protection of life, health, the
marine environment and property, by
using risk analysis and cost benefit
assessment”
 TERMINOLOGY
Terminology Definitions
Accident An unintended event involving fatality, injury, ship
loss or damage, other property loss or damage, or
environmental damage.
Hazard A potential to threaten human life, health, property
or the environment.
Risk The combination of all fault trees and event trees
contribution that constitute the risk model.
tree (RCT)
Risk control A means of controlling a single element of risk
measure (RCM)
Risk control A combination of risk control measures
option (RCO)
Risk evaluation Criteria used to evaluate the acceptability/
criteria tolerability of risk
 TERMINOLOGY
Terminology Definitions
Accident A designation of accidents reported in
category statistical tables according to their nature,
e.g. fire, collision, grounding, etc.
Accident A sequence of events from the initiating
scenario event to one of the final stages.
Consequence The outcome of an accident
Frequency The number of occurrences per unit time
(e.g. per year).
Generic model A set of functions common to all ships or
areas under consideration
Initiating event The first of a sequence of events leading to
a hazardous situation or accident.
METHODOLOGY (Process &
Step)
 FSA should comprise the following steps:
 identification of hazards (a list of all relevant
accident scenarios with potential causes and
outcomes);
 assessment of risks (evaluation of risk factors);
 risk control options (devising regulatory measures
to control and reduce the identified risks);
 cost benefit assessment (determining cost
effectiveness of each risk control option); and
 recommendations for decision-making
(information about the hazards, their associated
risks and the cost effectiveness of alternative risk
control options is provided).
 IN SIMPLE TERMS, THESE
STEPS CAN BE REDUCED TO
 What might go wrong? = identification of hazards (a list of
all relevant accident scenarios with potential causes and
outcomes)
 How bad and how likely? = assessment of risks
(evaluation of risk factors);
 Can matters be improved? = risk control options (devising
regulatory measures to control and reduce the identified
risks)
 What would it cost and how much better would it be? =
cost benefit assessment (determining cost effectiveness of
each risk control option);
 What actions should be taken? = recommendations for
decision-making (information about the hazards, their
associated risks and the cost effectiveness of alternative
risk control options is provided).
 PROBLEM DEFINITION
 The purpose of problem definition is to carefully
define the problem under analysis in relation to
the regulations under review or to be
developed. The definition of the problem should
be consistent with operational experience and
current requirements by taking into account all
relevant aspects. Those which may be
considered relevant when addressing ships
(not necessarily in order of importance) are:
 ship category (e.g. type, length or gross tonnage
range, new or existing, type of cargo);
 ship systems or functions (e.g. layout, subdivision,
type of propulsion);
PROBLEM DEFINITION
 ship operation (e.g. operations in port and/or
during navigation);

 external influences on the ship (e.g. Vessel Traffic

System, weather forecasts, reporting, routing);

 accident category (e.g. collision, explosion, fire);

and

 risks associated with consequences such as

injuries and/or fatalities to passengers and crew,
environmental impact, damage to the ship or port
facilities, or commercial impact.
 PROBLEM DEFINITION
(Result)
 The output of the problem definition
comprises:
 problem definition and setting of
boundaries; and

 development of a generic model.

 1. IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS
Hazard is defined as “A potential to
threaten human life, health, property or the
environment.

Accident is defined as “An unintended

event involving fatality, injury, ship loss or
damage, other property loss, damage or
environmental
Purpose step 1 is to identify a list of
hazard and associated scenarios
prioritized by risk level specific to the
problem under review
Hazard identification use both creative
and analytical techniques to identify all
relevant hazard
 ACCIDENT CATAGORIES
Contact or collision
Explosion
External hazards (Storms, lightning, poor visibility,
uncharted submerged objects, other ships, war,
sabotage etc)
Fire
Flooding
Grounding or stranding
Hazardous substances
Loss of hull integrity
Machinery failure
Loading and unloading related failure
 EXAMPLES OF HAZARDS
SHIPBOARD HAZARDS TO PERSONNEL
Asbestos inhalation
Burns from caustic liquids and acids
Electric shock and electrocution
Falling overboard
Pilot ladder /pilot hoist operation
 EXAMPLES OF HAZARDS
HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES ON BOARD
SHIP
Accommodation areas:
 combustible furnishings
 cleaning materials in stores
 oil/fat in galley equipment
Deck Areas:
 cargo
 paint, oils, greases etc. in deck stores
 EXAMPLES OF HAZARDS
Machinery spaces:
 Cabling
 Fuel and diesel oil for engines, boilers
and incinerators
 Fuel, lubricating and hydraulic oil in
bilges, save alls, etc.
 Refrigerants
 Thermal heating fluid systems
 EXAMPLES OF HAZARDS
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF IGNITION
General
 Electrical arc
 Friction
 Hot surface
 Incendiary spark
 Naked flame
 Radio waves
Accommodation areas (including bridge):
 Electronic navigation equipment
 Laundry facilities - irons, washing machines,
tumble driers, etc.
 EXAMPLES OF HAZARDS
HAZARDS EXTERNAL TO THE SHIP
Storms
Lightning
Uncharted submerged objects
Other ships
Continue: Step 1 –Identification of Hazards

RANKING
 Hazards and its associated scenarios
should be ranked in order to prioritize
them and remove scenarios judge to
be minor significance.
 Output from Step 1

1. List of hazard and its associated

scenarios prioritized by risk level;
and

2. a description of cause and effects

 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
Studying how hazardous events or states
develop and interact to cause an accident
in any phase of shipping functions and
each ship systems
The purpose of the risk analysis in Step 2
is a detailed investigation of the cause and
consequences of the more important
scenarios identified in step 1.
 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
Major phases of ship’s function:-
 Design, construction, commissioning
 Entering port, berthing, unberthing and
leaving port
 Loading and unloading
 Dry docking
 Decommisioning and disposal
 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
A ship consists of a set of systems such
as machinery, control system, electrical
system, communication system,
navigation system, piping and pumping
system, pressure plant

Risk assessments maybe carried out with

respect to each phase of shipping and in
each marine systems
 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
Fault Tree Analysis
A Fault Tree is a logic diagram showing
the causal relationship between events
which singly or in combination occur to
cause the occurrence of a higher level
event.
It is used in Fault Tree Analysis to
determine the probability of a top event,
which may be a type of accident or
unintended hazardous outcome.
 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS
The development of a Fault Tree is by a top-
down approach, systematically considering the
causes or events at levels below the top level. If
two or more lower events need to occur to cause
the next higher event, this is shown by a logic
.and. gate. If any one of two or more lower
events can cause the next higher event, this is
shown by a logic .or. gate. The logic gates
determine the addition or multiplication of
probabilities (assuming independence) to obtain
the values for the top event.
 2. ASSESSMENT OF RISKS (Cont)

An event tree analysis (ETA)

 An inductive procedure that shows all
possible outcomes resulting from an
accidental (initiating) event, taking into
account whether installed safety barriers
are functioning or not, and additional
events and factors.
 3. Risk Control Options
Proposing effective and practical risk control
options based on risk assessment

High risk areas identified and identification of

risk control measures taken, based on following
attributes:
 Fundamental type of risk reduction
(preventive or mitigating)
 Type of action required and costs of the action
(engineering or procedural)
 Confidence on the measure (active, passive,
single or redundant)

Risk control measures reduce frequency/failures

and/or mitigate consequences
 Examples of Risk Control Options
Technical/engineering sub-system
Ergonomic design of equipment and work
spaces
Good layout of bridge, machinery spaces
Ergonomic design of the man-machine
interface/human computer interface
Specification of information requirements for
the crew to perform their tasks
Clear labeling and instructions on the operation
of ship systems and
control/communications equipment
Working environment
 ship stability, effect on crew of working under
conditions of pitch/roll
 weather effects, including fog, particularly on watch-
keeping or external tasks
 ship location, open sea, approach to port, etc.
 appropriate levels of lighting for operations and
maintenance tasks and for day and night
 time operations
 consideration of noise levels (particularly for effect on
communications)
 consideration of the effects of temperature and
humidity on task performance
 consideration of the effects of vibration on task
performance
Personnel sub-system
Development of appropriate training for crew
members
Crew levels and make up
Language and cultural issues
Workload assessment (both too much and too
little workload can be problematic)
Motivational and leadership issues
Organisational/management sub-system
Development of organization policies on
recruitment, selection, training, crew levels and
Make up, competency assessment, etc.
Development of operational and emergency
procedures (including provisions for tug and
Salvage services)
Use of safety management systems
Provision of weather forecasting/routeing
services
4. Cost-benefit assessment
A cost benefit assessment may consist of the
following stages:
1. Consider the risks assessed in step 2, both in
terms of frequency and consequence, in order
to define the base case in terms of risk levels of
the situation under consideration;
2. Arrange the RCOs, defined in step 3, in a way
to facilitate understanding of the costs and
benefits resulting from the adoption of an RCO;
3. Estimate the pertinent costs and benefits for
all RCOs;
4. Estimate and compare the cost effectiveness of
each option, in terms of the cost per unit risk
reduction by dividing the net cost by the risk
reduction achieved as a result of implementing
the option; and

5. Rank the RCOs from a cost-benefit perspective

in order to facilitate the decision making
recommendations in step 5 (e.g. screen those
which are not cost effective or impractical)
The output from step 4 comprises:

1. costs and benefits for each RCO

identified in step 3 from an overview
perspective;
2. costs and benefits for those interested
entities which are the most influenced by
the problem in question; and
3. cost effectiveness expressed in terms of
suitable indices.
 5. Decision making
The purpose of step 5 is to define
recommendations which should be presented to
the relevant decision makers in an auditable
and traceable manner.

The recommendations would be based upon

the comparison and ranking of all hazards and
their underlying causes; the comparison and
ranking of risk control options as a function of
associated costs and benefits; and the
identification of those risk control options which
keep risks as low as reasonably practicable
 The Summary of Five FSA Steps
 Identification of hazard is by using both creative and analytical
techniques. Then the list of hazard is rank according to risk
level
 Assessment of risk is a detailed investigation of the cause and
consequences of the more important scenarios identified in
step 1 by using Fault Tree Analysis and Event Tree analysis
 Risk control option is where the relevant risk control options is
identify for the related entities and assess its effectiveness
 Cost benefit assessment is to identify and compare benefits
and cost associated with the implementation of each RCO
identified and defined in Step 3
 Recommendations for decision-making is where the define
recommendations which should be presented to the relevant
decision makers in an auditable and traceable manner
ANY QUESTIONS?