Global

Demographic
Trends
JACKSON HARWOOD
Fertility

 Currently, people view human growth rate as out of control,

especially in Asia.
 However, fertility rates in these countries have dropped at an
incredible rate to a sustainable level.
 Our population has hit the “kid peak,” meaning that our children
population will remain relatively constant.
 Population will likely continue to grow though as the adult
populations fill up.
Fertility Rates in 20th and 21st Centuries

India

Bangladesh

United States

China

Time(Year)
Fertility Implications

 Lowering fertility rates will make sustainability easier moving

forward.
 As the population begins to stabilize we will be able to stop
expansion of resource consumption, and find ways to make our
current consumption sustainable and more efficient.
 With fertility rates all closing in around 2, society will start have a
consistent age distribution by the end of the century.
Growth Rate

 The period of rapid human population growth is over.

 The population will continue to grow throughout the century, but
at a slower pace.
 Misconception that growth rate varies highly in developing
countries. While this is true to some extent, the growth rate is
only continuing because of previous generations maturing.
 All around the world growth rates are on a negative trend.
 Countries known for their high growth rates have drastically
narrowed the gap between them and developed countries.
Growth Rates in 20th and 21st Centuries

India

Bangladesh

United States

China

Cambodia

Brazil
Time(Year)
Growth Rate Implications

 The growth rate is still increasing, but the kid peak has been
reached meaning the era of fast growth is over.
 As growth slows down and eventually settles at around 11 billion,
we no longer have to worry about population increasing that
past, making it virtually impossible to live sustainably.
 However, the difficult part is finding ways to help these countries
that are developing to do so sustainably.
Education

 While education is worse in some countries than ever, there is a

very positive trend for education.
 80% of adults in the world are literate.
 Developing countries literacy rates are improving.
Adult Literacy Rates in Africa
Adult Literacy Rates in East Asia
Education Implications

 As shown by the two graphs, literacy rates in two areas of the

world considered developing, Africa and East Asia, are both
moving in the positive trend.
 With a wide variation country to country, there is a consistent
positive trend.
 As education levels increase, developing countries will be able to
live more sustainably as people gain a better understand of
climate change.
 With growing education, more people will understand the
complexity of sustainability, and the importance of living
sustainably.
Income per Person

 Income levels in the world have a very wide variation.

 Most wealth is concentrated in the wealthiest people.
 There is a spectrum of wealth, from $1 a day, to $100 when the 7
billion people are represent on one graph.
 While the mean income is increasing, there is more to the story.
 Over 1 billion people still live below the poverty line.
 Wealthy distribution has also shifted right drawing millions out of
poverty.
 However, in Asia and Africa there are many that are still living in
poverty, just not at the same drastic scale as 50 years ago.
 Income Growth in 20th and 21st Centuries Madagascar

Russia

India

Bangladesh

United States

China

Cambodia

Brazil
Time(Year)
*Note: GDP/capita Scale is geometric, making positive trends look flatter than they
are.
Extreme Poverty (<$1.90/day) in 20th and 21st Centuries Madagascar

Russia

India

Bangladesh

United States

China

Cambodia

Brazil
Time(Year)
Income Distribution Implications

 The average per capita income is increasing globally, while the

percentage of people living in extreme poverty are dropping in
many countries.
 As people are raised out of poverty, they will have access to
better healthcare and education. Overall quality of life will
increase.
 However, as people are raised out of poverty, they will increase
their resource use.
 But citizens in the economic lower class use such a small
percentage of resources that if the richest people cut down their
consumption there would be more than enough for everyone to
live comfortably.
Life Expectancy

 Life expectancy has drastically increased globally in the last 100

years because of improvements in healthcare, education, living
conditions, and increased wealth.
 Historically families had close to 6 children each because an
average of 2 would reproduce. In the 20th century though,
survival rates drastically increased, so when families continued to
have so many children the population increased as a result.
Life expectancy from 1800-2018 Madagascar

Russia

India

Bangladesh

United States

China

Cambodia

Brazil
Time(Year)
Life Expectancy Implications

 As people live longer lives, there are naturally going to be more

people on Earth.
 Parents no longer need 6 children for 2 to make it to adulthood.
The average person is living well past childhood and into the
elderly range globally.
 As people start to live longer, the older age ranges will start to fill
up, raising the capacity of the Earth up to 11 billion even after
hitting peak child growth.
 As people start to live longer, the burden on younger people to
support the elderly will increase as more people are living longer.
In addition more elderly will have opportunities to retire as
income increases.
Works Cited

 https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$chart-type=linechart
 https://www.gapminder.org/videos/dont-panic-the-facts-about-population/