Public Administration and Policy

PAD634 Judgment and Decision Making Behavior

Cognitive Continuum Theory

Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D.

Center for Policy Research
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
State University of New York
T.STEWART@ALBANY.EDU
 Premise I: A cognitive continuum

Various modes, or forms, of cognition can

be ordered in relation to one another on a
continuum that is identified by intuitive
cognition at one pole and analytical
cognition at the other.

Hammond (1996), p. 147

cognitive-continuum.ppt 2
 Premise II: Common sense

The forms of cognition that lie on the

continuum between intuition and analysis
include elements of both intuition and
analysis and are included under the term
quasirationality. This form of cognition is
known to the layperson as “common
sense.”
Hammond (1996), p. 150

cognitive-continuum.ppt 3
Premise III: Theory of task structures

Cognitive tasks can be ordered on a

continuum with regard to their capacity to
induce intuition, quasirationality, or
analytical cognition.

Hammond (1996), p. 180

cognitive-continuum.ppt 4
 Cognition and tasks on a continuum

Cognitive continuum
Intuition Analysis
Quasirationality
(“common sense”)

Task continuum
Intuition-inducing Analysis-inducing
cognitive-continuum.ppt 5
 Properties of
intuition and analysis (review)

Intuition Analysis
Cognitive control Low High
Rate of data Rapid Slow
processing
Conscious awareness Low High
Organizing principle Weighted average Task specific
Errors Normally distributed Few, but large
Confidence High confidence in Low confidence in
answer; answer;
Low confidence in High confidence in
method method

Based on Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia, J., & Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of
the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on Systems,
Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-17, 753-770.

cognitive-continuum.ppt 6
 Dual systems
From: Kahneman, D. and Frederick, S. (2002).
Representativeness revisited: Attribute
substitution in intuitive judgment. in T. Gilovich,
D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics &
Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
(pp. 49-81). New York: Cambridge University
Press.

See also: Sloman, S. A. (2002). Two systems of

reasoning. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman
(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of
intuitive judgment. (pp. 379-396). New York:
Cambridge University Press.

Hammond argues (p. 147 ff.) that this

dichotomy is not useful, and should be
cognitive-continuum.ppt replaced by a continuum. 7
 Elaboration of task-cognition relation
Task Characteristic Intuition-inducing state Analysis-inducing state
of tasks characteristic of task characteristic
1. Number of cues large (>5) small
2. Measurement of cues perceptual measurement objective, reliable
measurement
3. Distribution of cue values continuous, highly unknown distribution;
variable distribution cues are dichotomous;
values are discrete
4. Redundancy among cues high redundancy low redundancy
5. Decomposition of task low high
6. Degree of uncertainty in task low certainty high certainty
7. Relation between cues and linear nonlinear
criterion
8. Weighting of cues in equal unequal
environmental model
9. Availability of organizing unavailable available
principle
10. Display of cues simultaneous display sequential display
11. Time period brief long
 Premise IV: Dynamic cognition

Cognitive activities may move along the

intuitive-analytic continuum over time; as they
do so, the relative contributions of intuitive and
analytical components to quasirationality will
change. Successful cognition that maintains
constancy with the environment inhibits
movement; failure and loss of constancy
stimulate it.
Hammond (1996), p. 192

cognitive-continuum.ppt 9
Premise IV: Theory of task structures

“Oscillation”

Hammond (1996), p. 195

cognitive-continuum.ppt 10
 Premise V: Pattern recognition and
functional relations
Human cognition is capable of pattern
recognition and the use of functional
relations.
Hammond (1996), p. 196

Alternation between the use of multiple fallible

indicators and patterns (p. 198).

Narrative (p. 200)

cognitive-continuum.ppt 11
 Cognitive Continuum Theory
(Hammond, 1980)
• Complexity of task structure
– Texture of judgment scale, number of cues, vicarious
mediation, cue distribution, weights, organizing principle
• Ambiguity of task content
– Availability of an organizing principle, task outcome
available, familiarity with content, feedforward, feedback
• Form of task presentation
– Task decomposition, cognitive decomposition, type of cue
data, type of cue definition, response time permitted or
implied

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