Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
John
Loucks
St. Edward’s
University
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Slide 1
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Chapter 9, Part A
Hypothesis Testing
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
Population Mean: s Known
Population Mean: s Unknown
Population Proportion
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Slide 2
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Hypothesis Testing
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Slide 3
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 4
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 5
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 6
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 7
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 8
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 9
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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses
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Slide 10
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Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative
Hypotheses about a Population Mean
The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean m must take one of the following
three forms (where m0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).
H 0 : m m0 H 0 : m m0 H 0 : m m0
H a : m m0 H a : m m0 H a : m m0
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Slide 13
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Type I Error
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Slide 14
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Type II Error
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Slide 15
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Type I and Type II Errors
Population Condition
H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)
Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Decision
Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error
(Conclude m > 12) Decision
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Slide 16
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The p-value is the probability, computed using the
test statistic, that measures the support (or lack of
support) provided by the sample for the null
hypothesis.
If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of
significance , the value of the test statistic is in the
rejection region.
Reject H0 if the p-value < .
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Slide 17
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
= .10 Sampling
distribution
x m0
of z
s/ n
p-value
7
z
z = -z = 0
-1.46 -1.28
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Slide 18
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
p-Value Approach p-Value < ,
so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution
x m0 = .04
of z
s/ n
p-Value
z
0 z = z=
1.75 2.29
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Slide 19
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Critical Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The test statistic z has a standard normal probability
distribution.
We can use the standard normal probability
distribution table to find the z-value with an area
of in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution.
The value of the test statistic that established the
boundary of the rejection region is called the
critical value for the test.
The rejection rule is:
• Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z
• Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z
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Slide 20
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Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
of z x m 0
Reject H0 s/ n
Do Not Reject H0
z
z = 1.28 0
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 21
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
of z x m 0
s/ n Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
z
0 z = 1.645
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Slide 22
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Steps of Hypothesis Testing
p-Value Approach
Step 4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the
p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < .
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 23
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Steps of Hypothesis Testing
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Slide 24
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One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random sample of 40
medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
The EMS director wants to perform a hypothesis
test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine
whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less is
being achieved.
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 25
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
p -Value and Critical Value Approaches
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 26
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
p –Value Approach
Sampling
distribution = .05
of z x m 0
s/ n
p-value
z
0 z = z=
1.645 2.47
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 28
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 30
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Critical Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
The critical values will occur in both the lower and
upper tails of the standard normal curve.
Use the standard normal probability distribution
table to find z/2 (the z-value with an area of /2 in
the upper tail of the distribution).
The rejection rule is:
Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2.
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 31
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes with a mean weight of 6 oz.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be selected in
order to check the filling process.
Quality assurance procedures call for the
continuation of the filling process if the sample
results are consistent with the assumption that the
mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste
tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be adjusted.
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 32
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Example: Glow Toothpaste
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz. The population
standard deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level of
significance, to help determine whether the filling
process should continue operating or be stopped and
corrected.
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 33
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
p –Value and Critical Value Approaches
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 34
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
p –Value Approach
1/2 1/2
p -value p -value
= .0031 = .0031
/2 = /2 =
.015 .015
z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-z/2 = -2.17 z/2 = 2.17
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 36
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
Critical Value Approach
Sampling
distribution
x m0
of z
s/ n
z
-2.17 0 2.17
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 38
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
Select a simple random sample from the population
and use the value of the sample mean x to develop
the confidence interval for the population mean m.
(Confidence intervals are covered in Chapter 8.)
If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized
value m0, do not reject H0. Otherwise, reject H0.
(Actually, H0 should be rejected if m0 happens to be
equal to one of the end points of the confidence
interval.)
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Slide 39
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Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
The 97% confidence interval for m is
s
x z / 2 6.1 2.17(.2 30) 6.1 .07924
n
or 6.02076 to 6.17924
Because the hypothesized value for the
population mean, m0 = 6, is not in this interval,
the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the
null hypothesis, H0: m = 6, can be rejected.
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Slide 40
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Test Statistic
x m0
t
s/ n
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Slide 41
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value <
Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: m m Reject H0 if t < -t
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Slide 42
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
p -Values and the t Distribution
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Slide 43
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Example: Highway Patrol
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Slide 44
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
p –Value and Critical Value Approaches
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 45
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
p –Value Approach
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 47
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Reject H0
Do Not Reject H0
t
0 t =
1.669
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Slide 48
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
End of Chapter 9, Part A
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 49
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