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2018 BP Energy
Outlook
BP Energy
Outlook
2018 edition
The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040
and the key
uncertainties surrounding that transition.
The Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions
of what is likely to happen or what BP would like to happen. Rather, they explore the
possible implications of different judgements and assumptions by considering a series of
“what if” experiments. The scenarios consider only a tiny sub-set of the uncertainty
surrounding energy markets out to 2040; they do not provide a comprehensive description
of all possible future outcomes.
For ease of explanation, much of the Outlook is described with reference to the ‘Evolving
Transition’ scenario. But that does not imply that the probability of this scenario is higher
than the others. Indeed, the multitude of uncertainties means the probability of any one
of these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible.
The Energy Outlook is produced to aid BP’s analysis and decision-making, and is published
as a contribution to the wider debate. But the Outlook is only one source among many
when considering the future of global energy markets. BP considers the scenarios in the
Outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming its long-
term strategy.
2018 BP Energy
3 Outlook
Welcome to the 2018 edition of BP’s Energy
Outlook
The publication of BP’s Energy Outlook provides an opportunity to step back from the here
and now, and consider some of the lessons and insights the Outlook contains about where
energy is heading over the next few decades.
Reading this year’s Outlook, a core theme is the speed of the transition underway. Change
is ever present in our industry: the energy industry today is very different to the one I
joined almost 40 years ago. Likewise, government policies, new technologies and social
preferences will alter the way in which energy is produced and consumed in the future in
ways which are impossible to predict today. The Energy Outlook aids our understanding of
that uncertainty by considering a number of different scenarios. BP needs a strategy that is
resilient to all these possibilities and many more, ensuring that we are fit and ready to
meet the energy needs of tomorrow’s world, whatever form they take.
Another insight from this year’s Outlook is that competitive pressures within global energy
markets are intensifying. Demand will continue to grow, with global energy consumption set
to increase by around a third or so by 2040. But technological advances mean our ability to
produce energy is growing ever faster
– be that in unconventional oil and gas, or in renewables like wind and solar energy.
Indeed, the continuing rapid growth of renewables is leading to the most diversified fuel
mix ever seen. Abundant and diversified energy supplies will make for a challenging
marketplace. Don’t be fooled by the recent firming in oil prices: the focus on efficiency,
reliability and capital discipline is here to stay. 2018 BP Energy
4 Outlook
The third, and most important, takeaway for me from this year’s Outlook is the need for
more downward pressure on carbon emissions. The Outlook’s Evolving Transition scenario
suggests that a continuation of the recent progress and momentum in policies and
technologies is likely to cause the growth in carbon emissions to slow markedly relative to
the past. But this slowing falls well short of the sharp drop in carbon emissions thought
necessary to achieve the Paris climate goals. We need a far more decisive break from the
past.
There is no silver bullet that will achieve this break: as the Outlook shows, policies focussed
on specific fuels or technologies are unlikely to be sufficient on their own. We need a
comprehensive approach encouraging both improvements in how efficiently we use energy
as well as the continuing shift to a lower carbon fuel mix. In BP, we continue to believe that
carbon pricing must be a key element of any such approach as it provides incentives for
everyone – producers and consumers alike – to play their part.
I feel very privileged to work in the energy industry. It is an industry which literally fuels the
world economy, enabling billions of people over the next 25 years to be lifted out of low
incomes. We work at the epicentre of new technologies and the shifting global landscape,
providing energy solutions for a changing world. At the same time, we need to adapt and
change to play our part in achieving the transition to a low carbon energy system. This
raises important challenges – but also opportunities and choices. I hope you find this
year’s edition of BP’s Energy Outlook a useful contribution to your own discussions and
thinking.
2018 BP Energy
Bob Dudley 5 Outlook
Executive
summary
• The Energy Outlook considers the energy transition from three different
viewpoints (sectors, regions and fuels) and by exploring a number of
different scenarios.
• In the Evolving Transition scenario, world GDP more than doubles by 2040,
driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing emerging economies, as
more than 2.5 billion people are lifted from low incomes.
• This rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand, although
the extent of this growth is offset by accelerating gains in energy
efficiency: energy demand increases by only around one third over the
next 25 years.
• Industrial demand for energy accounts for around half of the increase
in energy consumption; growth in transport demand slows sharply
relative to the past.
• The world continues to electrify, with almost 70% of the increase in
primary energy going to the power sector.
• The share of vehicle kilometres powered by electricity increases, as the
2018 BP Energy
number of electric cars grows and they
6
are used more intensively. The
Outlook
Executive summary
(continued)
• All of the growth in energy consumption is in fast-growing developing
economies: China and India account for half of the growth in global
energy demand.
• Renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source, accounting for
40% of the increase in primary energy. The energy mix by 2040 is the
most diversified the world has ever seen.
• Demand for oil and other liquid fuels grows over much of the Outlook, but
gradually slows and plateaus in the later years of the Outlook.
• The increase in liquids production is initially dominated by US tight oil,
but is later
driven by OPEC, as members adopt a strategy of increasing their market
share.
• Natural gas grows strongly, supported by broad-based demand and the
continuing expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasing the
availability of gas globally.
• Global coal consumption flatlines, with Chinese coal demand declining.
2018 BP Energy
• In the ET scenario, carbon emissions7 continue to rise, signalling the
Outlook
Content
s Introduction and Overview 11
Economic 1
backdrop
• GDP 7
• Energy 1
2
intensity 8
0
Sector 2
demand
• Industry 3
2
• Non- 4
combusted 2
• Buildings 8
• Transport
Alternative scenario: Impact of ICE ban on liquids 3
demand
• Power 0
3
Region 2
5
demand
• China’s energy needs are changing 1
4
5
2
6
• India becoming the largest growth market
4
5
• Africa’s increasing role
6
8
• US’s global role in oil and gas production
• EU leading the transition to a lower carbon 6
economy 0
2018 BP Energy
8 Outlook 6
Contents
(continued)
Demand and supply of 6
fuels
• Oil 7
70
Alternative scenario: Growth in US tight 76
• oil
Natural 80
Gas
Alternative scenario: Less coal-to-gas 84
• switching
Coal 92
• Renewable 94
s Alternative scenario: More support for 98
• renewables
Nuclear and Hydro 10
0
Carbon 10
emissions
Alternative scenarios: Faster Transition and Even Faster 3
Transition 10
Comparison 6
10
s • Comparisons to last year’s 9
11
outlook 0
• Extending the outlook to 2040 11
• Comparisons to external 2
Anneoutlooks 119
11
x 4
12
• Key figures, definitions and
sources 0
2018 BP Energy
9 Outlook
2018 BP Energy
Outlook
Overvie
w
2018 BP Energy
1 Outlook
Overview
5 5 5
0 0 0
2018 BP Energy
17 Outlook
Economic
backdrop
% per
10%annum
9% 1990 2016
- -
8% 201 204 Productivit
6 0 y
7% Population
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Worl Chin Indi Afric OEC Othe
d a a a D r
2018 BP Energy
18 Outlook
Economic
backdrop
%
6%per annumGDP Billions
2.
Primary energy 0
5%
Energy
4% intensity Othe
1.
5 r
3% OEC
D
2%
Other
1.
1% Asia
0
Indi
0% a
0. Chin
-
5 a
1%
-
2% Afric
0. a
- 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 0 1990- 2015-
3% 2030- 15 40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2018 BP Energy
20 Outlook
2040
Economic
backdrop
2018 BP Energy
2 Outlook
Sector
s
5 0.5
%
0 0.0%
2016-
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1990- 2040
†Primary energy use in power is allocated according to final sector electricity
2018 BP Energy
2016 excludes non-combusted use of
*Industry
consumption
2 Outlook
fuels
Sector
s
20%
2%
15%
1% 10%
5%
0% 0%
1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2030- - - - - - -
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 201 202 202 203 203 204
2040excludes non-combusted use of
*Industry 5 0 5 0 5 BP Energy
2018 0
28 Outlook
fuels
Sectors: Non-
combusted
4 4
3 Efficienc 3
y
Income gains Non-road*
2 per 2
head
Trucks
1 1
Cars**
0 0
201 204 2016 204
6 0 *Aviation, Marine and
0
Rail
**Includes 2- and 3- 2018 BP Energy
32 wheelers Outlook
Sectors:
Transport
2.5
Billions of vehicles
Battery Litres/100km**
10 EU Chin US
electric a
2. Plug-in
ICE* hybrid 8
0
1. 6
5
1. 4
0
0. 2
5
0.0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 201 202 203 204
2000 0 0 0 0
**Based on the
*ICE vehicles NEDC (New
includes hybridEuropean
vehicles Drive
whichCycle),
do not plug into the 2018 BP Energy
gasoline fuel
power grid Outlook
Sectors:
Transport
Trillion km
5 40 Private -
0 Electricit %
y autonomous Shared
Ga
4 s Trucks - autonomous
Liquid 30
0
s % Shared - human
30 driver
20%
20
Cars
10%
10
0 0%
201 202 202 203 203 204 201 202 202 203 203 204
6 0 5 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 5 0
Cars excludes 2- and 3- 2018 BP Energy
wheelers 38 Outlook
Sectors:
Transport
Mb/d
4
5
2. Switch to
4 5 EVs
0 Other gains in fuel
18. efficiency
3 22.6
2
5
3
0
2.
2 0
5
18. 18.6
2 7
0
60 60
% %
40 40
% %
20 20
% %
0% 0%
201 202 202 203 203 204 201 202 203 204
6 0 5 0 5 0 6 0 0 0
2018 BP Energy
42 Outlook
Sectors: Transport - alternative
scenario
2018 BP Energy
43 Outlook
Sectors: Transport - alternative
scenario
...and carbon
emissions
• The impact of the ‘ICE ban’ scenario on liquid fuel demand depends on
the extent to
which vehicle emission standards are adjusted in the light of the ban.
• If emission standards are unchanged from the profile assumed in the ET
scenario, the impact of the ICE ban on liquid fuel demand would be
negligible, since the impact of the greater number of EVs would be
offset by less investment in other forms of vehicle efficiency.
• But assuming emission standards are tightened by a corresponding
amount, such that there is no offset from smaller efficiency gains, the
ICE ban reduces liquid fuel demand by around 10 Mb/d relative to the ET
scenario. Even so, the level of oil demand in 2040 in the ‘ICE ban’
scenario is higher than in 2016.
• The relatively small impact of the ICE ban on total oil demand means its
impact on carbon emissions is also relatively limited. Even if the
electricity used to power the additional EVs is assumed to be generated
entirely by renewable energy and so leads to no additional emissions,
carbon emissions in the ‘ICE ban’ scenario still increase by 7% over the
Outlook, little different from the ET 45
scenario, and far higher than2018
inBPthe
Outlook
Energy
Sectors:
Power
1% 20 Coa
% l
0% 0%
1990- 2016- 197 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030
2016 2040 0 2000 2040
2018 BP Energy
46 Outlook
Sectors:
Power
204
201
204
201
204
201
204
Oil
6
0
2
OEC Chin India & Othe OEC Chin Indi Other
- D a Other r D a a Asia
3 Asia 2018 BP Energy
48 Outlook
Sectors:
Power
2018 BP Energy
49 Outlook
2018 BP Energy
Outlook
Region
• Overvie demand
w
• China
• India
• Africa
• US
• EU
2018 BP Energy
51 Outlook
Region
s
204
201
204
201
204
201
204
201
204
EU
a
6
US Oil
US EU Chin India & Middl EU
Coa
Chin
a Other e a l
Asia East †Ten largest increases and five largest
declines Coa
2018 BP Energy
54 Outlookl
Region
s
0%
2
-
1%
- 0
2% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015- 2030- 199 200 201 202 203 204
2030 40 0 0 0 0 0 BP Energy
2018 0
56 Outlook
Regions:
China
4% 30
% Oil
2% 15 Renewable
% Ga s
s
0% Other fuels
0%
1990- 2016- 199 200 201 202 2030
2016 2040 0 0 0 0 2040
*Excludes non-combusted 2018 BP Energy
fuels 58 Outlook
Regions:
India
0 30
Deman Suppl Demand % 0 5 10 1
d y Supply GDP per capita, $ 5
thousand 2018 BP Energy
*Includes non-combusted
60 fuels Outlook
Regions:
Africa
Billion toe
50 4 US Other N
% S&C Middle
America
Renewable 3 America East
Europ
40 s Africa e CIS
% 2 Asia
Net
exporter
1
30 s
% Ga
s 0
20 -
% 1 Net
importer
Oil* - s
10 2
% -
3
0% -
199 200 201 202 203 204 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0 0 0 0 0 0 2040
* Includes crude and
2018 BP Energy
NGLs Outlook
62
Regions:
US
5 0.
0 200 201 202 203 204 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0 0 0 0 0 2040
2018 BP Energy
64 Outlook
Regions:
EU
2018 BP Energy
67 Outlook
Fuel
s
Supply
11 2040
0Mb/d Other level
10 Middle
5 East
Russia
Africa
Brazil
10 Other Asia
0 US
China
9
5 India
9
0
2 0.
0 0
0 -
2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030-
0.5
2035-
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-road includes aviation, marine 2010 2015 2020 2025 203020182035
BP Energy
Cars 72
include 2- and 3- wheelers. Trucks include most SUVs in North
and rail 2040 Outlook
Fuels:
Oil
Mb/d
45% 12
OPEC 0
40%
10
35% 0
30% 8
0
25%
US 6
20% 0 Evolving
Saudi transition Faster
15% Arabi 4
0 transition
Even faster
a
10% Russi transition ICE ban
a 2
5% 0 Supply with no
US investment
crude (3% decline
0% 0 rate)
200 201 202 203 204 197 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0 0 0 0 0 0 2040
2018 BP Energy
74 Outlook
Fuels:
Oil
6 40
Early 0
4 peak
20 Early
2 0 peak
0 0
201 201 202 202 203 203 204 2010 2015 2020 2025 203 204
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 2030 5 0
*In the four main producing regions:
Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and 2018 BP Energy
76 Niobrara Outlook
Fuels: Oil – alternative
scenario
Consumption Production
Trade
700
Bcf/d N America Europe Bcf/d Pipeline
700 China India & Other * LNG
60 Middle Asia CIS 60
0 0 Consum
East Other ed
50 Africa 50 regionall
0 0 y
40 40
0 0
30 30
0 0
20 20
0 0
10 10
0 0
0 0
2016 201 204 201 204
2040 6 0 6 0
*Pipeline gas refers to inter-regional pipeline
2018 BP Energy
trade
80 Outlook
Fuels: Natural
gas
0 0%
199 200 201 202 203 204 199 200 201 202 203 204
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 BP Energy
82 Outlook
Fuels: Natural
gas
23
Evolving
Less gas transition %
switching
21
Renewables %
Evolving transition
push
19 Less gas switching
% Renewables push
Faster
Faster transition
transition 17
% Even faster
transition
Even faster 15
transition % 199 200 201 202 203 204
0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 BP Energy
86 Outlook
Fuels: Natural gas – alternative
scenario
1 0%
-
0 1% 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020-
199 200 201 202 203 204 2030-
0 0 0 0 0 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 202020182030
BP Energy
92 2040 Outlook
Fuels:
Coal
80 60 -
% % Gas-fired 20%
power
60 40 Coal-fired -
% % power 40%
40 20 -
% % 60%
20 0% -
% 80%
0% - -
ET RE 20% ET RE 100% ET RE push
push push EFT
2018 BP Energy
98 Outlook
Fuels: Renewables – alternative
scenario
…leading to stronger
growth
• The pace at which renewable energy penetrates the global power system
depends partly on the size and persistence of government support. In the
ET scenario, support for renewables is largely phased out by mid 2020s.
We also consider an alternative scenario in which levels of government
support per unit of capacity installed persists around current levels until
2040.
• In this alternative ‘renewables push’ scenario, renewables account for more
than 90% of the growth in power demand over the Outlook, with the share
of renewables within power reaching over 40% by 2040, compared with
25% in the ET scenario. The stronger growth in renewables crowds out coal
and gas to a broadly equal extent.
• This stronger policy push to renewables reduces the carbon intensity of
power relative to the ET scenario, although the reduction in the carbon
intensity of power is only around half of that achieved in the ‘even faster
transition’ (EFT) scenario (pp 106-107).
• This smaller improvement reflects that the ‘renewables push’ policy reduces
carbon intensity only by supporting renewables, which has diminishing
effectivenessofas renewables grow within the power sector causing
deployment 2018 the cost
BP Energy
of balancing intermittency issues to99escalate. In contrast, as wellOutlook
CCUS. as
Fuels: Nuclear &
Hydro
Othe
4 4 r
Chin 0
0
a
Chin
0 0 a
OEC
D
- -
40 1995 2005 2016 2030 40 1995 2005 2016 2030
- - - - - - - -
200 201 203 204 200 201 203 204
5 6 0 0 5 6 0 2018 BP Energy
0
10 Outlook
Fuels: Nuclear &
Hydro
2018 BP Energy
10 Outlook
Carbo
n
40 0 2 4 6 8 10
12
35
Power
2
30 CCUS*
5 Faster
20 transition
Even faster transition
1 Evolving transition Industry
5 &
1 Faster transition Building
0 s
Even faster
5 Transpor
transition t
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
*Carbon capture use and
2040 storage
2018 BP Energy
10 Outlook
Carbo
n
0 0
Evolvin Even 201 ET FT EFT
g faster 6
transitio transitio
n n 2018 BP Energy
10 Outlook
BCaaes rbcaosne::
aFulteelrbnyaftuario
iveledsecat einl
…of a faster transition to a lower carbon
economy
• The continuing growth of carbon emissions in the ET scenario highlights
the need for an even more decisive break from the past if climate goals
are to be met. This could have significant implications for the global
energy system over the next 25 years.
• The EFT scenario illustrates one possible configuration of policies and
outcomes achieving such a break, and is based on a sharp increase in
carbon prices and a range of other polices designed to encourage more
rapid gains in energy efficiency and greater fuel switching.
• Energy demand continues to grow in the EFT scenario, but at a slower rate
reflecting the faster gains in energy efficiency. The higher carbon price
also encourages greater use of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) in
both industry and the power sector.
• The carbon intensity of the fuel mix in the EFT scenario is significantly
lower than in the ET scenario. Renewables account for more than the
entire growth in global energy, with their share within primary energy
increasing to around a third by 2040.
• Even so, oil and gas together account for more than 40% of world
2018energy
BP Energy
in 2040. 10 Outlook
2018 BP Energy
Outlook
Comparison
s
2018 BP Energy
10 Outlook
Comparison
s
20 20 S&C
0 Renew 0 Americ Power
Oil . a
10 10 India &
Other Transport
0 0
Ga Asia
Afric Building
s 0
0 a s
Non-
Nuclea combusted
Coa
r -
- l
100 Chin Industr
100 Hydr
a y
o
- -
200 200
Total
Othe
- - r
300 Total Oil, gas, Other 300
energy coal fuels
2018 BP Energy
11 Outlook
Comparison
s
% per
annum Renewable
1.2
1.4%
% s Hydro
1.0 Nuclear
%
0.8 Coal
% Gas
0.6
% Oil
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
BP ET CNPC EIA IEA IEEJ IHS OPEC Statoil
XOM
scenario
OPEC, EIAnote:
Technical and IEEJ
for cases are
ease of each publication’s
comparison outlooksreference
have beencase. For full
rebased to asources
common and data
set definitions
of data see
for 2016 pages
taken from 2018 BP Energy
122 and 123.
the BP Statistical Review. The IEA case shown is the New Policies Scenario, for IHS it is Rivalry Scenario and Statoil it Outlook
Comparison
s
2018 BP Energy
11 Outlook
Comparison
s
BP ET
BP ET
IHS
A IEA
il
XOM
Stato
OPE
EI
IEEJ
CNPC
IHS
IE
OPE
A
C
BNEF
2016 2040
Technical note: not all outlooks in the original sample publish data at the level of detail required to create each chart.
Where the
cover all data
fuels at is
a global level so are not in the original 2018 BP Energy
unavailable
sample. we have removed the source from the sample. For EVs we have added BNEF who produce detailed EV Outlook
11
analysis but do not
Comparison
s
2018 BP Energy
11 Outlook
Key figures: Evolving transition
Change Change Change
scenario
Macro (absolute) (%) (% per annum)
1990- 2016- 1990- 2016- 1990- 2016-
2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040
GDP (trillion US$) 109 235 63 126 135% 115% 3.3% 3.2%
Population 7.4 9.2 2.1 1.7 40% 23% 1.3% 0.9%
(billions)
GDP per capita (thousand US$) 15 26 6 11 68% 74% 2.0% 2.3%
Energy intensity (toe per US$m) 122 77 -54 -45 -31% -37% -1.4% -1.9%
Net CO2 emissions (billion t CO2) 33.4 36.8 11.8 3.3 55% 10% 1.7% 0.4%
Consumption Shares Change Change Change
(Mtoe) (%) (Mtoe) (%) (% per
annum)
1990- 2016- 1990- 2016- 1990 2016-
2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 - 2040
2016
Primary energy 13276 17983 100% 100% 5134 4707 63% 35% 1.9% 1.3%
By fuel:
Oil 4336 4836 33% 27% 1183 500 38% 12% 1.2% 0.5%
Gas 3204 4707 24% 26% 1437 1502 81% 47% 2.3% 1.6%
Coal 3732 3762 28% 21% 1486 30 66% 1% 2.0% 0.0%
Nuclear 592 912 4% 5% 139 320 31% 54% 1.0% 1.8%
Hydro 910 1241 7% 7% 423 331 87% 36% 2.4% 1.3%
Renewables 502 2527 4% 14% 467 2025 1333% 404% 10.8% 7.0%
End-use sector:
Transport 2662 3398 20% 19% 1194 735 81% 28% 2.3% 1.0%
Industry 5965 7843 45% 44% 2222 1877 59% 31% 1.8% 1.1%
Non-combusted 809 1277 6% 7% 340 468 73% 58% 2.1% 1.9%
Buildings 3840 5466 29% 30% 1378 1626 56% 42% 2018 BP
1.7% Energy
1.5%
of which: 12 Outlook
Key figures
Consumption Shares Change Change Change
(continued)(Mtoe) (%) (Mtoe) (%) (% per
annum)
1990- 2016- 1990- 2016- 1990- 2016-
2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040
By region:
North America 2789 2914 21% 16% 465 125 20% 4% 0.7% 0.2%
United States 2273 2299 17% 13% 307 26 16% 1% 0.6% 0.0%
S & C America 705 1085 5% 6% 374 380 113% 54% 2.9% 1.8%
Brazil 298 477 2% 3% 172 180 136% 60% 3.4% 2.0%
Middle East 895 1382 7% 8% 631 487 239% 54% 4.8% 1.8%
Asia Pacific 5580 8754 42% 49% 3779 3174 210% 57% 4.4% 1.9%
China 3053 4319 23% 24% 2370 1266 347% 41% 5.9% 1.5%
India 724 1921 5% 11% 529 1197 271% 165% 5.2% 4.2%
Other Asia 912 1671 7% 9% 618 759 210% 83% 20182.6%
4.5% BP Energy
12 Outlook
Anne
x
Definition
s
Data
• Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
• Primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, and excludes traditional biomass.
• The primary energy values of nuclear, hydro and electricity from renewable sources have been derived by
calculating the equivalent amount of fossil fuel required to generate the same volume of electricity in a
thermal power station assuming a conversion efficiency of 38% (a global average for thermal power
generation).
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in terms of real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at 2010 prices.
Sectors
• Transport includes energy used in road, marine, rail and aviation.
• Industry includes energy combusted in manufacturing; construction; the energy industry including pipeline
transport; and for transformation processes outside of power generation.
• Non-combusted includes fuel that is used as a feedstock to create materials such as petrochemicals,
lubricant and bitumen.
• Buildings includes energy used in residential and commercial building, plus agriculture, fishing and IEA’s non-
specified sector
“Other”.
• Power includes inputs into power generation (including combined heat and power plants).
Regions
• OECD is approximated as North America plus Europe plus OECD Asia.
• Other Asia includes all countries in non-OECD Asia excluding China and India.
• China refers to the Chinese Mainland.
Fuels
• Oil unless noted otherwise includes: crude; natural gas liquids (NGLs); gas-to-liquids (GTLs); coal-to-liquids
(CTLs); condensate; and refinery gains.
• Liquids includes all of oil plus biofuels. 2018 BP Energy
• Renewables unless otherwise noted includes wind, solar, Outlook
12 geothermal, biomass, and biofuels and excludes
Anne
x
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding changes to the
fuel mix, global economic growth, population and productivity growth, energy consumption,
energy efficiency, mobility developments, policy support for renewable energies, sources of
energy supply and growth of carbon emissions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and
uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur
in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product
supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; demographic
changes; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters
and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors
discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims any obligation to update this presentation.
Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their respective officers, employees and agents)
accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for any direct, indirect, special, consequential
or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in connection to this presentation or any
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2018 BP Energy
12 Outlook
2018 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2018