Estimation of Population

Mean

Dr. T. T. Kachwala

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Estimation of Population Characteristics from Sample
Characteristics

Statistical inference is based on estimation and hypothesis testing. In

both, we shall be making inferences about the characteristics of
populations from information contained in samples.

To calculate exact population mean would be an impossible goal.

However, we can make an estimate with a statement about the error
that will accompany this estimate.

Any sample statistic that is used to estimate a population parameter is

called an estimator i.e. an estimator is a sample statistic used to
estimate a population parameter.

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Estimator & its desirable properties

For example sample mean ' X ' is an estimator of the population

mean .

A good estimator is unbiased and efficient.

An unbiased estimator is an estimator such that mean of its sampling

distribution = population mean. For example A.M X is unbiased
because μ X  μ .

On the other hand efficiency refers to the size of standard error of the
statistic. Amongst the unbiased estimators, the estimator with the least
variance is an efficient estimator.

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Unbiased & Efficient Estimators

Mean X is unbiased and efficient estimator of μ

X
X
n

On similar lines, Standard Deviation s is unbiased and

efficient estimator of 

 x2
s x  X-X
n - 1
Using '(n-1)' in the denominator for ‘s’ gives us an unbiased
estimator of 
 x2
s
{ i.e. if we used the formula; n  if can be proved that the
estimator 's' will be a biased estimator of the population standard
deviation  }
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Point Estimate & Interval Estimate

There are two types of estimates about a population

1. Point estimate
2. Interval estimate

A point estimate is a single number that is used to estimate an

unknown population parameter. It is often insufficient because it is
either right or wrong for e.g. the attendance in class of 60 students
today will be 52 students.

Point estimate is accompanied by an estimate of the error that might

be involved. For example 52  5

On the other hand, an interval estimate is a range of values used to

estimate a population parameter. For e.g. "47 - 57”. It indicates the
error in two ways: by the extent of its range and by the probability
of the true population parameter lying within that range. 5
 Interval Estimates-Basic Concepts

An interval estimate describes a range of values within which a

population parameters is likely to lie

One can obtain intervals of different widths using the following

mathematical formula:

Interval estimate = Point estimate ± Margin of error

I.E.X  X  z x

Where 'z' is the table value from Standard Normal Table. For different
values of z one can obtain different interval width {the value of z lies
between 0.01 to 3.09 to infinity}. Also for each value of 'z' one can
obtain the corresponding value of 'a' using Standard Normal Table.
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Interval Estimates-Basic Concepts

In statistics, the probability that we associate with an interval estimate is

called the confidence level. It indicates how confident we are that the
interval estimate will include the population parameter.
The most frequently used confidence intervals are 90 percent, 95
percent and 99 percent confidence intervals. The corresponding three
popular values of z are: 1.645, 1.96 & 2.575.

There is a direct relationship existing between confidence level and the

width of interval estimate - for example:
Value of z Width of Interval Estimate Confidence level
z = 1.645 X  1.645  90% Confidence level
X

z= 1.96 X  1.96  95% Confidence level

X

z = 2.575 X  2.575  99% Confidence level

X

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Interval Estimates using the 't' Distribution

When the population standard derivation '' is not known and the sample
size is '30 or less’; then normal distribution is not the appropriate sampling
distribution. Fortunately, another distribution exists that is appropriate in
these cases. It is called the 't' distribution.
Statistician 'Gosset' who adopted the pen name 'student' developed the t
distribution commonly referred as student's t distribution.
Use of t distribution for estimating is required when:
• the sample size is 30 or less
• Population standard deviation is not known
• Population is normal or approximately normal

The ‘t’ distribution like the normal distribution is symmetrical. There

is a different t distribution for each of the possible “level of
significance” and "degree of freedom".
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Concept of Level of Significance α

Mathematically Level of Significance α = 1 – Confidence level

For example 95% confidence level is the same as 5% level of

significance

Level of Significance α signifies the total area under the tail of the
distribution

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 Concept of Degree of Freedom

Degree of Freedom can be defined as the number of values we can choose

freely.
Alternatively, by degree of freedom we mean the number of independent
observations that can be assigned arbitrarily without violating the
restrictions or limitations placed.

Symbolically,  = N - K
(nu) (observn) (constraint)

In general, for problems concerning one sample of size 'n'  = n - 1

and for problems concerning two samples of size n1 & n2, ν = n1 + n2 – 2

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 Characteristics of the ‘t’ distribution

The 't' table differs from 'z' table. Because there is a different t distribution
for each numbers of degree of freedom, t values are given only for a few
percentage (level of significance for e.g. :  = 0.1, 0.05, 0.01)

• Another difference in the 't' table is that it focuses on rejection area

(level of significance  = 0.05, 0.01) while z table focuses on
acceptance area (confidence level = 95%, 99%)

• Finally, while specifying t table, we must specify level of significance

and degree of freedom for e.g. t0.05, 10 = 2.22

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 Relationship between 't' distribution and Normal distribution

• Both 't' distribution and Normal distribution are symmetrical. In general,

't' distribution is flatter than the normal distribution and there is a
different 't' distribution for every degree of freedom. As sample size gets
larger t distribution approximates normal distribution as indicated below:

(t distribution n>30)
Normal Distribution

t distribution
n=2

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Relationship between 't' distribution and Normal distribution

A t distribution is lower at the mean and higher at the tails than

a normal distribution.

A t distribution has proportionately more of its area in its tail

than the normal distribution. As a result, the ordinates have to
go further out from the mean of a t distribution to include the
same area under the curve.

Interval widths from t distribution are wider than those based on

normal distribution.

I.E.X  X  t ˆ x

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 Thank You

Dr. T. T. Kachwala

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