Urban Transport Modeling

Urban Transport Modeling
(based on these two sources)

A Transportation Modelling Transport:
Modeling Primer Theory and Practice
May, 1995 Frank McCabe, Dublin
Edward A. Beimborn Transportation Office
Center for Urban http://www.icetact.tcd.ie/iceta
Transportation Studies ct/news/transport/mccabe.ht
University of Wisconsin- ml
Milwaukee
http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/C
UTS/primer.htm
What’s in the Black
Box?
Beimborn, Edward A. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer.

Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee:
http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/primer.htm (last accessed 11/14/04).
Travel Demand Modeling
First developed in the late 1950s
Helps make decision on future development
of (urban) transport systems
Forecasts travel patterns 15-25 years ahead
Model is predictive, but used prescriptively
A clear understanding of the modeling
process and assumptions is essential to
understanding transportation plans.
Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee:
http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/primer.htm (last accessed 11/14/04).
Limitations of Urban Transport
Modeling
Only considers factors and alternatives
explicitly included in the equations.
If models are not sensitive to certain factors,
they will not show any effect of them.
This could lead to a conclusion that the
factors are ineffective.
E.g., bicycle or pedestrian
It is therefore critical to consider the
assumptions before decisions are made.
How do models fit in the
transport planning process?
Define problem
Define goals and criteria
Collect data
Forecasting (modeling)
Develop alternatives
Evaluate
Finalize an implementation plan
How is Travel Modeled?
1. What will our community look like in
the future?
How many people? (population
forecasts)
What will they do? (economic forecasts)
Where will they do it? (land use pattern)
2. What are the travel patterns in the
future?
How many trips? (trip generation)
Where will the trips go? (trip distribution)
What modes will they use? (mode split)
What routes will they take? (traffic
assignment)
What will be the effects of this travel?
(impact analysis)
Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/primer.htm (last accessed 11/14/04).
Population Forecasts
Birth rates
Death rates
Migration rates
Ages
Often use forecasts from
other agencies
Economic Forecasts
Employment levels
Forecasted in conjunction
with population
Basic employment
Economic multipliers used
to estimate nonbasic
employment
Often use forecasts from
other agencies
Land Use Forecasts
Allocate population and
economic growth
1. Establish land use goals and
land use rates
2. Allocate to specific locations—
models can be used to predict
nonbasic and residential from
basic
Land Use Forecasting:
Limitations
No feedback with transportation
plans
Current development is fixed –
considers only vacant land
Mixed-use benefits not
considered
Study Area
The area within which trip patterns will
be significantly affected by the
implementation of transport proposals.
Aggregate Modeling
McCabe, Frank. Modelling Transport: Theory and Practice. Dublin Transportation Office:
http://www.icetact.tcd.ie/icetact/news/transport/mccabe.html (last accessed 11/14/04).
Trip Generation
Done separately for each trip purpose

Two main methods:
 Multiple regression
 Cross-classification (a.k.a. category
analysis)
Trip Generation by
Multiple Regression, e.g.:
Home-to-work trips (R = 0.99)
Oi = -43.6 + 0.097 Population + .773 Employed
Residents - 351 Number of Households + .504 Num
Cars
Trips to shopping (R = 0.95)

Oi = -17.9 + 1.19 Area Res. Land + .266 Number of
Cars
Light Commercial Vehicle Trips:

Oi = 75.9 + .367Number HHs + .267 Total Empl -.339
Office Empl - .0188 Industrial Empl
Trip Generation by
Cross-Classification
Advantages Disadvantages
Multiple 1. Familiar methodology 1. Assumes linearity

Regression 2. Statistical significance 2. Aggregate data (ecological
3. Estimates effect holding fallacy)
other variables constant 3. Coefficients not stable over
time, or after improvements
4. Multicollinearity
Category 1. Individual data good for 1. Needs individual data

Analysis predicting individual behavior. 2. Hard to resurvey individuals
2. Interaction effects for more variables
3. Doesn’t assume linearity 3. Best with naturally discrete
variables.
Common Limitation of
Trip Generation Models
Independent decisions
Limited trip purposes
Limited independent variables
Trip-chaining is ignored
Lacks feedback with trip distribution,
modal split, traffic assignment
Common Limitations of
Trip Distribution Models
Constant trip lengths (in minutes) into
the future
Use of car travel times in gravity model
denominator
Ignores socio-cultural-economic factors
for O-D pairs
Lacking feedback with trip generation,
modal split, network congestion
Modal Split Models
Mode choice affected only by time and
cost characteristics
Omitted factors (amenities, crime,
safety, security) have no effect
No consideration of ease of walking and
comfort of waiting for transit
Modal Split Ignores
Pedestrian Friendliness

Center for UrbanTransportation Studies, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/CUTS/primer.htm (last accessed 11/14/04).
Traffic Assignment
also known as
Network assignment
Route assignment
Network loading
Trip assignment
Wardrop Equilibrium
"Under equilibrium conditions, traffic
arranges itself in congested networks in
such a way that no individual trip maker can
reduce his path costs by switching routes".
All used routes between any Origin /
Destination pair have equal and minimum
costs, while all unused routes have greater
or equal costs."
Algorithms
A mechanistic
iterative procedure
with a:
Starting rule
Iteration rule
Stopping rule
Wardrop Equilibrium Algorithm
Starting rule: set all arc flows to 0, compute all
arc costs from cost-flow curve.
Iteration (for each O-D pair):
 Use shortest path algorithm to find the cheapest
route for each O-D pair
 Shift a fraction of the flow from the old route(s) to
the new cheapest route.
 Recalculate the new arc flows and arc costs.
Check for convergence:

high-cost route – low cost route < e (i.e.,
tolerance)
Traffic Assignment Models
Intersection delay is ignored
Travel only on simplified network
Intrazonal travel ignored (affects pollution
estimates)
Capacities are simplified as a function of
number of lanes and type of road
Model ignores time of day. Peak-hour
adjustment factor is critical.
Peak spreading is not considered.
Final Outputs from
Traffic Assignment
Amount of travel, congestion, speed per link
Total transport cost, time, VMT
By applying other coefficients:
 Accidents
 Air pollution
Improving UTMS
Better data
Biking and walking
Auto occupancy
Time of day factors
More trip purposes
Transit-friendly and bike/walk-friendly design
Land use feedback
Intersection delays
Other Critiques to UTMS
Ignores non-transport impacts (energy,
neighborhoods, etc.)
Sequential 4-step model doesn’t always
match transport decision-making process.
Ecological fallacy (of aggregate data)
Disaggregate Methods
Parcel-based microsimulation
Household Activity Travel Simulation
(HATS)

Urban Transport Modeling

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Urban Transport Modeling

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Urban Transport Modeling

(based on these two sources)

Beimborn, Edward A. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer.

Done separately for each trip purpose

Trips to shopping (R = 0.95)

Light Commercial Vehicle Trips:

Multiple 1. Familiar methodology 1. Assumes linearity

Category 1. Individual data good for 1. Needs individual data

Beimborn, Edward A. 1995. A Transportation Modeling Primer.

Check for convergence:

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