EPIDEMIOLOGICAL

VARIABLE

WEEK VI

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 Iceberg principle of disease

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 GENERAL TERMINOLOGY OF
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY
 Health: refers to measures of optimum productivity due
to lack of disease (meat, eggs or milk)

 Disease: refers generally to an imbalance in the health

status of individuals or populations that result in
decreased productivity, illness or death

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 Frequency:means that we count characteristics in a
population of people or animals
 Distribution:
describes the patterns of disease in a
population, in a particular place during a period of time
 Population:refers to the group of individual animals or
people that are considered or affected

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 Risk factors: risk is the probability that a factor the
population is exposed to be associated with the
occurrence of disease
 Prevent: means not providing the opportunity for a
disease to occur
 Control: method to reduce the extent of disease in a
population or area

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Investigation of Infectious Disease Outbreaks
 Define the problem.
 Define the population of risk

 Appraise existing data.

 Case identification
 Clinical/ METABOLIC DISTURBANCES observations
 Tabulation and spot maps
 Identification of responsible agent
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 MEASURES OF RISK / EPIDEMIOLOGICAL VARIABLES

Calculate and interpretation the following

epidemiologic measures:
 – POPULATION AT RISK
 – DISTRIBUTION OR PATTERN OF DISEASE /Proportion
 – INCIDENCE RATE
 – PREVALENCE
 – MORTALITY RATE

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 No of deaths
Mortality rate =
Population

No of deaths
Case fatality rate = No of clinically ill

No of clinically ill
Morbidity rate = Population

No of infected
Infection rate = Population

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Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
 The number of deaths caused by a disease
among those who have the disease.

 Examples of diseases with a high CFR are ND and

AI

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Formula For CFR
Number of deaths due to disease “X “ x 100 Number of
cases of disease “X “

Sample calculation:
 Assume that an outbreak of AI occurs in an Asian country. Health
authorities record 98 case of the disease, all of whom are
untreated. Among these, 60 deaths are reported.

 CFR = (60/98) x 100 = 61.2%

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 Incidence rate

Number of cases
5-month CI = –––––––––––––––––––
Population at risk
Incidence proportion estimates risk.

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 Mortality rates versus incidence rates
• Mortality data are more generally available
• Fatality reflects many factors, so mortality rates may not
be a good surrogate of incidence rates
• Death certificate cause of death not always accurate or
useful

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 Prevalence rate

Number of existing (and new) cases

Prevalence = –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Population at risk

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 Pattern of diseases..Endemic - Epidemic -
Pandemic
R>1

R=1
R<1
Time

 Endemic
 Transmission occur, but the number of cases remains constant
 Epidemic
 The number of cases increases
 Pandemic
 When epidemics occur at several continents – global epidemic

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(www)
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 Level of disease occurence
 Sporadic level: occasional cases occurring at irregular intervals
 Endemic level: persistent occurrence with a low to moderate level
 Hyperendemic level: persistently high level of occurrence
 Epidemic or outbreak: occurrence clearly in excess of the expected
level for a given time period
 Pandemic: epidemic spread over several countries or continents,
affecting a large number of people

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 Epidemic
 the occurrence of a disease that the level of
infection exceeds that normal expectancy in a
specific region, spreads rapidly and usually lasts
for a limited period of time
 Pandemic: widespread epidemic that affects a large
part of population in many countries
 Epizootic:epidemic that involves animal host
population

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 Endemic vs Epidemic
Number of Cases of a Disease

Endemic Epidemic

Time
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Sporadic:
An irregular occurrence
of a disease that
commonly presents in a
particular place

Sporadic pattern
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Epidemic pattern
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 DISTRIBUTION OF DISEASE

DISTRIBUTION PATTERN DISEASES EXAMPLES

 ENDEMIC  DISTOMATOSIS
 COCCIDIOSIS
 MASTITIS

 AVIAN INFLUENZA
 EPIDEMIC
 NEW CASTLE DISEASE

 SPORADIC  ANTHRAX

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 ACCORDING GOVERNMENT
POLICIES/LEGISLATION
STATUES DISEASES
 ECONOMIC DISEASES  FASCIOLIASIS
 MASTITIS
 GUMBORO

 BRUCELLOSIS
 STRATEGIC DISEASES  AVIAN INFLUENZA
 FMD
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 SEE YOU NEXT WEEK

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