Wind loading and structural response

Lecture 4 Dr. J.D. Holmes

Prediction of design wind speeds

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Historical :

1928. Fisher and Tippett. Three asymptotic extreme value distributions

1954. Gumbel method of fitting extremes. Still widely used for windspeeds.

1955. Jenkinson. Generalized extreme value distribution

1977. Gomes and Vickery. Separation of storm types

1982. Simiu. First comprehensive analysis of U.S. historical extreme wind

speeds. Sampling errors.

1990. Davison and Smith. Excesses over threshold method.

1998. Peterka and Shahid. Re-analysis of U.S. data - ‘superstations’

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Generalized Extreme Value distribution (G.E.V.) :


  k (U  u )  
1/ k

c.d.f. FU(U) = exp  1   

  a   

k is the shape factor; a is the scale factor; u is the location parameter

Special cases : Type I (k0) Gumbel

Type II (k<0) Frechet
Type III (k>0) ‘Reverse Weibull’

Type I (limit as k 0) : FU(U) = exp {- exp [-(U-u)/a]}

Type I transformation : U  u  a log e  log e (FU (U)) 

If U is plotted versus -loge[-loge(1-FU(U)], we get a straight line

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Generalized Extreme Value distribution (G.E.V.) :

Type I k = 0
Type III k = +0.2
Type II k = -0.2
8

6 (In this way of

(U-u)/a 4 plotting, Type I
2 appears as a straight
0 line)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-2

-4

-6

Reduced variate : -ln[-ln(FU(U)]

Type I, II : U is unlimited as c.d.f. reduces (reduced variate increases)

Type III: U has an upper limit

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Return Period (mean recurrence interval) :

1 1
Return Period, R = 
Probabilit y of exceedence 1  FU (U)

Unit : depends on population from which extreme value is selected

e.g. for annual maximum wind speeds, R is in years

A 50-year return-period wind speed has an probability of exceedence of

0.02 in any one year
or average rate of exceedence of 1 in 50 years

it should not be interpreted as occurring regularly every 50 years

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Type I Extreme value distribution

U  u  a log e  log e (FU (U)) 

In terms of   1 
U  u  a  log e  log e (1 - ) 
return period :   R 

Large values of R : U  u  alog e R

 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Gumbel method - for fitting Type I E.V.D. to recorded extremes

- procedure
• Extract largest wind speed in each year

• Rank series from smallest to largest m=1,2…..to N

m
• Assign probability of non-exceedence p
N  1
• Form reduced variate : y = - loge (-loge p)

• Plot U versus y, and draw straight line of best fit, using least squares
method (linear regression) for example
 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Gringorten method

• same as Gumbel but uses different formula for p

• Gumbel formula is ‘biased’ at top and bottom ends

m - 0.44 m - 0.44
• Gringorten formula is ‘unbiased’ : p  
N  1 - 0.88 N  0.12
• Otherwise the method is the same as the Gumbel method
 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Gumbel/ Gringorten methods - example

• Baton Rouge Annual maximum gust speeds 1970-1989

y = - loge (-loge p)
BATON ROUGE LA

Year Gust speed (mph) Gumbel Gringorten Gumbel Gringorten

(corrected to 33 ft) ordered rank p p y y
1970 67.58 40.97 1 0.048 0.028 -1.113 -1.276
1971 48.57 45.4 2 0.095 0.078 -0.855 -0.939
1972 54.91 46.46 3 0.143 0.127 -0.666 -0.724
1973 52.8 47.97 4 0.190 0.177 -0.506 -0.549
1974 76.03 47.97 5 0.238 0.227 -0.361 -0.395
1975 51.74 48.57 6 0.286 0.276 -0.225 -0.252
1976 46.46 48.57 7 0.333 0.326 -0.094 -0.114
1977 53.85 49.97 8 0.381 0.376 0.036 0.021
1978 48.57 50.68 9 0.429 0.425 0.166 0.157
1979 62.3 51.74 10 0.476 0.475 0.298 0.296
1980 53.85 51.74 11 0.524 0.525 0.436 0.439
1981 50.68 52.8 12 0.571 0.575 0.581 0.590
1982 51.74 52.8 13 0.619 0.624 0.735 0.752
1983 45.4 53.85 14 0.667 0.674 0.903 0.930
1984 52.8 53.85 15 0.714 0.724 1.089 1.129
1985 40.97 53.96 16 0.762 0.773 1.302 1.359
1986 47.97 54.91 17 0.810 0.823 1.554 1.636
1987 53.96 62.3 18 0.857 0.873 1.870 1.994
1988 49.97 67.58 19 0.905 0.922 2.302 2.517
1989 47.97 76.03 20 0.952 0.972 3.020 3.567
 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Gringorten method -example

• Baton Rouge Annual maximum gust speeds 1970-1989

BATON ROUGE ANNUAL MAXIMA 1970-89

y = 6.24x + 49.4
Gust wind speed (mph)

80

60

40

20

0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
reduced variate (Gringorten) -ln(-ln(p))
 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Gringorten method -example

• Baton Rouge Annual maximum gust speeds 1970-1989

Mode = 49.40
Predicted values Slope = 6.24

Return Period UR(mph)

10 63.4
20 67.9
50 73.7
100 78.1
200 82.4
500 88.2
1000 92.5

  1 
U  u  a  log e  log e (1 - ) 
  R 
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Separation by storm type

• Baton Rouge data (and that from many other places) indicate a
‘mixed wind climate’

• Some annual maxima are caused by hurricanes, some by

thunderstorms, some by winter gales

• Effect : often an upward curvature in Gumbel/Gringorten plot

• Should try to separate storm types by, for example, inspection

of detailed anemometer charts, or by published hurricane tracks
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Separation by storm type

• Probability of annual max. wind being less than Uext due to any
storm type =

Probability of annual max. wind from storm type 1 being less than Uext
 Probability of annual max. wind from storm type 2 being less than Uext
 etc…. (assuming statistical independence)

• In terms of return period,

 1   1  1 
1    1  1  
 Rc   R1  R2 

R1 is the return period for a given wind speed from type 1 storms etc.
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Wind direction effects
If wind speed data is available as a function of direction, it is very
useful to analyse it this way, as structural responses are usually
quite sensitive to wind direction
Probability of annual max. wind speed (response) from any direction being less than Uext =
Probability of annual max. wind speed (response)from direction 1 being less than Uext
Probability of annual max. wind speed (response)from direction 2 being less than Uext 
etc…. (assuming statistical independence of directions)

• In terms of return periods,

 1  N  1 
1     1  
 Ra  i 1  R i 


Ri is the return period for a given wind speed from direction sector i
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Compositing data (‘superstations’)
Most places have insufficient history of recorded data (e.g. 20-50
years) to be confident in making predictions of long term design
wind speeds from a single recording station

Sampling errors : typically 4-10% (standard deviation) for design wind speeds

• Compositing data from stations with similar climates :

• reduces sampling errors by generating longer station-years

Disadvantages : disguises genuine climatological variations

assumes independence of data
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Compositing data (‘superstations’)

Example of a superstation (Peterka and Shahid ASCE 1978) :

3931 FORT POLK, LA 1958 -1990

3937 LAKE CHARLES, LA 1970 - 1990
12884 BOOTHVILLE, LA 1972 - 1981
12916 NEW ORLEANS, LA 1950 - 1990
12958 NEW ORLEANS, LA 1958 - 1990
13934 ENGLAND, LA 1956 - 1990
13970 BATON ROUGE, LA 1971 - 1990
93906 NEW ORLEANS, LA 1948 - 1957

193 station-years of combined data

 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Excesses (peaks) over threshold approach

Uses all values from independent storms above a minimum defined threshold

Example : all thunderstorm winds above 20 m/s at a station

• Procedure :
• several threshold levels of wind speed are set :u0, u1, u2, etc. (e.g. 20, 21, 22 …m/s)
• the exceedences of the lowest level by the maximum wind speed in each storm are
identified and the average number of crossings per year, , are calculated
• the differences (U-u0) between each storm wind and the threshold level u0 are
calculated and averaged (only positive excesses are counted)
• previous step is repeated for each level, u1, u2 etc, in turn
• mean excess for each threshold level is plotted against the level
• straight line is fitted
 Prediction of design wind speeds

• Excesses (peaks) over threshold approach

• Procedure contd.:
• a scale factor, , and shape factor, k, can be determined from the slope and intercept :

• Shape factor, k = -slope/(slope +1)

- (same shape factor as in GEV)
• Scale factor,  = intercept / (slope +1)
• These are the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution
1

• Probability of excess above uo exceeding x, G(x) =   kx  k

1   σ 
  
• Value of x exceeded with a probability, G = [1-(G) k]/k
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Excesses (peaks) over threshold approach

• Average number of excesses above lowest threshold, uo per annum = 

• Average number of excesses above uo in R years = R

• R-year return period wind speed, UR = u0 +

value of x with average rate of exceedence of 1 in R years

≈ u0 + value of x exceeded with a probability, (1/ R)

= u0 + [1-(R)-k]/k

• Upper limit to UR as R  for positive k

• UR= u0 +( /k)
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Excesses (peaks) over threshold approach
• Example of plot of mean excess versus threshold level :

MOREE Downburst Gusts

y = -0.139x + 4.36
5.
4
Average 3
excess
2
(m/s)
1
0.
0 5 10 15

Threshold (m/s)

Negative slope indicates positive k

(extreme wind speed has upper limit )
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Excesses (peaks) over threshold approach
• Prediction of extremes :

MOREE Downburst Gusts

Return Period UR (m/s)

scale = 5.067 m/s 10 32.8

20 34.8
shape = 0.161 50 37.1
100 38.7
rate = 2.32 per annum 200 40.1
500 41.7
1000 42.7

upper limit (R) = 51.7 m/s

 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Lifetime of structure, L
Appropriate return period, R, for a given risk of exceedence, r,
during a lifetime ?

Probability of non exceedence of a given wind speed

1
in any one year = 1  ( )
R
Assume each year is independent

L
Probability of non exceedence of a given wind speed  1 
1  ( )
in L years = R 

L
 1 
Risk of exceedence of a given wind speed in L years, r  1  1  ( )
 R 
 Prediction of design wind speeds
• Example :

L = 50 years R = 50 years

50
Risk of exceedence of a 50-year return period wind  1 
r  1  1  ( )  0.636
speed in 50 years,  50 

There is a 64% chance that U50 will be exceeded in the next 50 years

Wind load factor must be applied

e.g. 1.6 W for strength design in ASCE-7 (Section. 2.3.2)
 End of Lecture 4

John Holmes
225-405-3789 JHolmes@bigpond.com