Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Planning
Forecasting
By-
Abhishek Gupta
FORECAST:
Uses of Forecasts
Timely
Reliable Accurate
Written
3-6 Forecasting
Qualitative Methods
Quantitative Methods
Forecast Variations
Figure 3.1
Irregular
variation
Trend
Cycles
90
89
88
Seasonal variations
3-12 Forecasting
Naive Forecasts
Naïve Forecasts
Simple to use
Virtually no cost
Easily understandable
Forecast Accuracy
Actual forecast
MAD =
n
2
( Actual forecast)
MSE =
n -1
Example 10
MAD= 2.75
MSE= 10.86
MAPE= 1.28
3-17 Forecasting
Control chart
A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors
Used to detect non-randomness in errors