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FORECASTING DEMAND
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION IS
WORTHLESS; CUSTOMER
______________ IS PRICELESS
Jeffery Gitomer
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION IS
WORTHLESS; CUSTOMER
LOYALTY IS PRICELESS
Jeffery Gitomer
• Collect and store relevant historical data (prices, demand, causal factors).
Data
Collection
Optimization
Opportunity Cost
SUPPLY
Insight
Effective
Historic Future
demand
data data
forecast
Current
data
DATA TYPES
Type of Information Describes
Historical data Events that have already
occurred
Current data Events occurring now or in the
very near term
Future data Events that will occur in the
future
HISTORICAL DATA
Data describing events that have already
occurred. a.k.a Actual Data/Results Data
RevPar
RevPAR is revenue per available room,
Rooms Revenue is the revenue generated by rooms
sales
Rooms Available is the number of rooms available for
sale in the time period
An often used short cut to estimate RevPAR is to
multiply Occupancy % times Average Daily Rate
(ADR)
Revpar (estimated) = Occ % * ADR
$ 158.75 X 0.88 = $ 139.70 Rev Par
forecast
STEP II
Calculate the forecasted RevPar based on the
estimated demand for rooms that includes the
new ( proposed) piece of business.
Revenue Impact
Expense Impact
Number of arrivals
Number of departures
No- shows
Walk-ins
ADR
CURRENT DATA
“ understanding the present”
MAIN REPORT AREAS
Demand Forecast
Revenue Forecast
Creating
Demand????