Challenges and methods of reserves estimate

in unconventional reservoirs:
Sachin jain(epe16-028)
Introduction:
Estimating reserves in an unconventional reservoirs possess lots of challenges .The transient flow regime dominates and it
requires years to reach pseudo steady state to predict drainage area .Well testing techniques like PTA requires several months
for the well to remain shut in and get stabilised pressure.Use of the Arp’s decline model also possess challenges .Rate
transient analysis like fetkovich type curves,blansingame type curves,flowing material balance provides good tool to
estimate reserves.Methods like history matching ,numerical simulation are also good tools to estimate reserves.

Arp’s decline and power law : Type curves:

•Hyperbolic curve fitting of b>1 during transient

flow regime gives optimistic reserves and non
uniqueness can give much higher reserves.
•Power law loss ratio allows a variation in decline
constants which allows a better reserves estimates.
•The higher the value of b over 1 ,the higher the
discrepancy of the EUR between arp’s and the power
law.
Flowing material balance:
. •Normalised production rate is plotted against
History matching:
•Powerful tool to validate interpretations from
rate transient analysis .
•Gives us unique solution
. of many
interpretations(good match).
•History matching of pressure and production
data is done by adjusting parameters like
permeability ,reservoir pressure ,drainage area.
Fetkovich introduced a dimensionless model for
reservoir system on a log-log plot:
•Transient flow period match gives
permeability and skin.
•Boundary dominated flow gives OGIP/OOIP .
•Based on the decline analysis technique.
•Blansingame gave a better match by analysing
both BHFP and production data.
material balance time.
•We get a single line in PSS regime whereas
fetkovich contained many such lines.
.
Conclusion
•Tighter the formation ,the longer it takes to confirm
EUR.
•Decline
. analysis of transient data usually yields
unrealistic high reserves.
•Time –Rate –Pressure data analysis needs to
become the dominant tool for forecasting production
and reserves.
•Advanced methods like history matching provides
RTA interpretations a unique solution.
References
•Arps, J. J. 1945. Analysis of Decline Curves. SPE-945228-G. Trans.,
AIME, 160: 228–247. https://doi.org/10.2118/945228-G.
•Fetkovich, M. J. 1980. Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves. J
Pet Technol 32 (6): 1065–1077. SPE-4629-PA.
https://doi.org/10.2118/4629-PA.