Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Revised B
NPW = -2000 + 250(P/A, 3.5%, 10) + 300(P/F, 3.5%,
10)
= -2000 + 250(8.317) + 300(0.7089)
= -2000 + 2079 + 213
=+$292 A is now the preferred alternative.
A Range of Estimates
an optimistic estimate,
the most likely estimate
a pessimistic estimate
Example 10-3
A firm is considering an investment. The most likely
data values were found during the feasibility study.
Analyzing past data of similar projects shows that
optimistic values for the first cost and the annual
benefit are 5% better than most likely values.
Pessimistic values are 15% worse. The firm's most
experienced project analyst has estimated the
values for the useful life and salvage value.
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Pessimistic Estimate
$1150 - 170(P/A, IRRpess,8)
(P / A, IRRpess,8) = 1150/170 = 6.76 IRRpess= 3.9%
Example 10-3
From the calculations we conclude that the rate of
return for this investment is most likely to be
15.1%, but might range from 3.9%to 19.8%.The
investment meets the 10%MARRcriterion for two
of the estimates. These estimates can be
considered to be scenarios of what may happen
with this project. Since one scenario indicates that
the project is not attractive, we need to have a
method of weighting the scenarios or considering
how likely each is.
Example 10-4
Compute the mean for each parameter:
Mean cost = [950 + 4 x 1000+ 1150]/6 = 1016.7
Mean net annual benefit = [210 + 4 x 200 + 170]/6 = 196.7
Mean useful life = [12 + 4 x 10+ 8]/6 = 10.0
Mean salvage life = 100/6 = 16.7
efficient frontier.
dominated projects.
Simulation
Example 10-15
ShipM4U is considering installing a new, more
accurate scale, which will reduce the error in
computing postage charges and save $250 a year.
The scale's useful life is believed to be uniformly
distributed over 12, 13, 14, 15,and 16 years. The
initial cost of the scale is estimated to be normally
distributed with a mean of $1500 and a standard
deviation of $150.
Use Excel to simulate 25 random samples of the
problem and compute the rate of return for each
sample. Construct a graph of rate of return versus
frequency of occurrence
Example 10-15
250 Annual savings
Life First Cost
Min 12 1500 Mean
Max 16 150 Std dev
Iteration IRR
1 15 1510 14%
2 13 1217 18%
3 12 1391 14%
4 14 1297 17%
5 13 1621 12%
…
25 14 1408 15%
Example 10-15
IRR vs Frequency
5
3
Frequency
0
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19%
IRR
Example 10-16
Consider the scale described in
Example 10-15. Generate 10,000
iterations and construct a frequency
distribution for the scale's rate of return.
10-16