Agenda

• Global Warming and Climate Change

• The Ocean and Coral Reefs
• Impacts
• Temperature
• Acidity
• The Future Challenges
Global Warming
• Prior to industrial
revolution: 280 ppm
• Current day: 387 ppm
• “Greenhouse” effect
• By 2100, CO2 levels to
double pre-industrial
revolution
• Loss of environmental
biodiversity, disrupt
ecosystem processes, and
reduce ecological goods
and services
Importance of the Ocean

• Yearly global economic value of $21 trillion

• The largest sink/reservoir of atmospheric CO2
emissions
– Contains 50 times the amount of carbon in the
atmosphere and 10 times more carbon than is
held by soil and plants
• CO2 uptake has not been without negative
consequences
Coral Reefs
• Coral reefs: corals, coralline algae, fish, others
• Corals: small animals
– Begin as larva, attach to hard surface
– Build coral skeleton via reaction of Ca and CO2 to make
CaCO3, or limestone
• Symbiotic relationship with yellow-brown algae,
zooxanthellae
– Provide coral with nutrients
– Coral provides protection and
access to light

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/students/coral/coral5.htm
Importance of Coral Reefs

• Among the most diverse and productive ecosystems

on earth (tropical rainforests of the sea)
• Support 25% of all known aquatic wildlife species,
over 4,000 species of fish, 700 species of coral, and
thousands of others
• Provide: food, supply economic income via fishing
and tourism, shoreline protection, integral ocean
sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Supply $375 billion in ecosystem goods and services
to the global economy each year
Impacts on the Ocean
• Temperature Rise
– Air has higher thermal heat capacity than water
– Since the 1950s, average temperature increase of
0.31 °C in top 300 meters of water
• Acidification
– Since the 1900s, 30% increase in H+ in ocean
Temperature Impact on Coral Reefs
• Coral reefs very sensitive to changes in the
ocean’s temperature
– Generally require T between 25°C and 29°C
• T change of only a few degrees above the
long-term average can cause coral to die
– “Bleaching” – loss of zooxanthellae
• Over 60% of the earth’s coral reefs will be lost
by the next 25 years
Coral Reef Bleaching
• Between 1979 and 1990, out of 105 mass coral
moralities, 60 coral reef bleaching events were
reported, compared with only three bleaching events
among 63 mass coral moralities for the preceding
103 years

Source: Texas A&M University, Coral Reefs Source: http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm

Acidification
• Increasing ocean CO2 concentration
• Historically: pH of 8.2
• Since early 1900s, pH drop by 0.1 units, estimate a
drop in seawater pH by 0.5 units by 2100
• CO2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid (H2CO3)
– Increases carbonate (HCO3−) and H+ in the ocean surface
water (reducing pH), decreases bicarbonate (CO32−)
• Coral reef organisms rely on the concentration of
bicarbonate to form hard skeletons
• Predict threshold to be met around 2050
The Future
• More research on coral reef impacts
• Increasing carbon concentration is dangerous
• GHG and carbon mitigation
– Reduce emissions
– Sequestration
• Impacts on entire ocean ecosystem difficult to
predict
 NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index
of Coral Reef Ecosystems

NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch:

Global Satellite Component of CREIOS

Al Strong (NOAA/NESDIS) NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SO

C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS) and
Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP)
Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG) NOAA Coral Matrix
Tyler Christensen (NOAA, IMSG) Silver Spring, Maryland
Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, STG)
Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, Knauss Fellow)
William Skirving (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)
Scott Heron (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)
 Presentation Outline
• NOAA Coral Reef Watch – Mission and Challenges
• Research Impetus
– Impact of rising CO2 on ocean chemistry
– Potential threat to marine calcifiers
• Reef Calcification Index (RCI) – Product Development
– Calcification and its effect on ‘reef water’ CO2
– Modeling pCO2 from space
• Proof of Concept: Caribbean Sea
• Next Steps
• Application and Stakeholders
• Significance, Mission Goal, Cross-Cutting Priorities
The Mission:
The mission of NOAA's Coral Reef Watch
Program is to utilize remote sensing and
in-situ tools for near real-time and long
term monitoring, modeling and reporting
of physical environmental conditions of
coral reef ecosystems. Coral Reef Watch
aims to assist in the management, study
and assessment of impacts of
environmental change on coral reef
ecosystems.
Why Do We Care?

Value of Reefs
• Seafood: $247 million in commercial fishing on U.S. reef fish
• New medicines: cancer research, bone grafts, antivirals
• Other products: jewelry
• Recreation: $17 billion in U.S. tourism
• Coastal protection: buffer from wave action and the impact of storms
One kilometer of reef valued at between $137,000 to almost $1.2 million!

Global Decline:
• 1/3 world’s reefs severely damaged (U.S. COP)
• 50 – 60% may be lost in 30 years (U.S. COP)
• ‘97-’98 El Niño mass bleaching event (16% global mortality)
• ’05 Caribbean Sea bleaching event (15 – 16 weeks!)
 NOAA Caribbean Bleaching Response Effort
• A major coral bleaching event is underway in the Caribbean
• Thermal stress reached record levels, exceeding 15 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) at some sites
• NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Bleaching Alert
(SBA) monitoring system first alerted possible Bleaching report data for July-November 2005
bleaching conditions: Location Percent Bleached
– Florida Keys in late Aug. Bahamas 16-75
– Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands in early Oct. Belize 1-77
• The DHW and SBA products have been invaluable to British Virgin Islands 90-100
researchers and managers who have redirected Colombia 1-90
efforts to monitor the resulting bleaching. Cuba 8-75
• NESDIS is leading an international effort to fully Jamaica 20-80
document the extent of the bleaching event. Mexico 1-50
Panama 70
Trinidad and Tobago 6-100
US Florida 3-80
US Puerto Rico 50-75
US Texas 35-100
US Virgin Islands 10-100
Venezuela 21
Complied from more than 400 bleaching
observations obtained from Coral Reef Watch,
ReefBase, Coral List, and other sources
 Stressors to Coral Reefs
• Thermal stress
• Eustatic sea level rise
• Nutrient stress
• UVB stress
• Salinity stress
• Siltation stress
• Carbonate mineral saturation state
 Rising Levels of Ocean Carbon Dioxide

Total oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 of approximately 118±19

Pg C between 1800 and 1994.
 Ocean ‘Acidification’
CO2  H 2O  H 2CO3
H   HCO3 H   CO32  HCO3

2 
CO2  CO  H 2O  2HCO
3 3
Saturation State (phase)

Ca CO 
Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999 2 2
 3

K sp , phase

>1 = precipitation
=1 = equilibrium
<1 = dissolution
 Projected Changes in Saturation State
2000 – 2069
Pre-industrial
2020
2040
2060 (1870)
2029
2049
2009
pCO
pCO 2 2==517
280ppmv
415
465
375 ppmv

>4
3.5 - 4
3 – 3.5
<3
No Data

Guinotte et al., 2003 Aragonite saturation state

NCAR Community Climate System Model CCSM v 1.0
IPCC SRES B2 scenario Saturation state in the tropics may
decrease by 30% over the next century
 Impact on Marine Calcifiers
140
Calcification Rate (mmol mh )
-1

120
Decrease in calcification rate!
-2

100

80
Weaker skeletons
60
Reduced extension rates
40
present

20
Increased susceptibility
0
to erosion
-20
Langdon et al. (2004) Submersion
1 2 3 4 5

Saturation State (aragonite)

BIOSPHERE II Coral Reef Mesocosm

 18-20 April 2005
USGS Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies
St. Petersburg, Florida
30 June 2005

Identified priority research areas and

recommended approaches from small-
scale laboratory experiments to large-
scale field experiments, and modeling.
 The Reef Calcification Index (RCI)
RCI  pCO2Reef water  pCO2Offshore
150

100 Calcification
50

RCI 0 No metabolic effect

-50 Organic carbon

production
-100

May June July Aug. Sept.

Reef pCO2Reef water Patch Reef pCO2Offshore  f SST , Color ,Winds 

• The RCI couples remote sensing and in situ observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure
(pCO2) to monitor changes in reef community structure.

•Monitoring the balance between organic carbon and calcium carbonate production, the RCI
reflects ecosystem-level changes and reef responses to a series of environmental stresses
including ocean acidification.

• The RCI adds to the suite of CRW products, providing an important tool in monitoring coral
reef response to mounting environmental stresses related to climate change.
 Coral Reef Impact on CO2
Photosynthesis Respiration
CO2  H 2O  CH2O  O2
Calcification Dissolution
2
Ca  2 HCO3  CaCO3  H 2O  CO2
Southern and Central GBR
offshore offshore
370
360 atm
pCO2

350
340
330 H2O
320
lagoon lagoon lagoon

Kawahata, 2000
 Reef Calcification Index (R.C.I)
pCO2  pCO2,L  pCO2,O
Reef Water Offshore

• Magnitude controlled:
– Net primary productivity
versus calcification (ROI)
– Coral cover
– Mean water depth
A positive R.C.I. – Hydrographic processes
indicates robust
calcification
 Mechanistic pCO2 Model
pCO2(atm) Winds • Physical and biogeochemical processes
Atmosphere constrained by monthly variations of:
– Sea surface temperature
U  UM 
IN – Chlorophyll concentration
IN K M  IN
– Wind speed
CO2
TC – Salinity
phyto Chl
Mixed Layer

CO32- HCO3-
TA – Mixed-layer depth
rs  q
T
S
Depth of the Euphotic Zone ZE
Pexp.

ZM
Bottom Layer TC;TA;IN
Louanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)
Satellite
• Monthly 2°x 2° sea surface pCO2 Remote Sensing
fields in the Indian Ocean where the
model seeks to account for:
– Air-sea exchange
– Thermodynamic effects
– Biological activity
– Mixing processes

NODC Monthly Climatology

 Statistical pCO2 Model
Offshore Shipboard sampling
pCO2, SST

• 2002 – present
• East – West tracks
• Sea Keeper pCO2 sys.
• Thermosalinograph
Algorithm development
pCO2 = f(SST,lat,lon)

Caribbean Sea pCO2

1° x 1°, Weekly

Satellite SST data

Olsen et. al. (2004)
AOML Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
2002: pCO2sw =10.18 SST+ 0.5249 lat - 0.2921 lon + 52.19,
n = 40204, rms = 5.7 µatm, r2= 0.87
• Low spatial resolution using Reynolds (1ox1o)
• Yearly drift in SST slope related to changes in atm. CO2.
• Not provided NRT
• Lat & Lon dependence

Box plots of residuals between

pCO2 determined from remotely
sensed SST data and bin-averaged
pCO2 data from the Explorer.

Olsen et. al., (2004)

CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
390
Key Biscayne, Florida
Ragged Point, Barbados

+ 380

XCO2
Ship observations of temperature and pCO2 370
were assembled into weekly 0.25 degree
binned averages from March 2002 through
October 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
40
Data for the dry atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2)
were provided by the NOAA/CMDL Carbon Cycle
20 Greenhouse Gasses (CCGG) Group flask sampling
program. –T.J. Conway
pCO2,aq-XCO2,atm

0
Weekly mean values were linearly regressed to obtain the

= -20
latitudinal XCO2 gradient.

-40
n Adj-r2 RMS

-60
17582 0.81 8.27
22 24 26 28 30 32
o
Temperature ( C)
 CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
• The offshore pCO2 can be obtained from:

xCO2, KEY  xCO2, RPB

pCO2  303.31  10.81 SST  xCO2, Key   Lat  25.6
12.5

Sea Surface Temperature Local atmospheric CO2 term

- Satellite SST product -NOAA/CMDL CCGG
 CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model

• Multi-satellite, multi-sensor
• Daily at ~25 km resolution
• Cloud penetrating
• Day & Night ‘normalized’ to daily
minimum SST (~8 AM)
• NRT validated and bias corrected
using in situ obs.
• Optimally Interpolated
– Reynolds & Smith (1994)
Microwave OI SST data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems
and sponsored by the NASA Earth Science Physical Oceanography
Program and the NASA REASoN DISCOVER Project. Data are
available at www.remss.com.

Instrument Platform Launched Orbit Coverage

TMI TRMM Nov 1997 Equatorial (35°) 40N to 40S
AMSR-E Aqua May 2002 Near Polar Global
 Evaluation of computed pCO2 fields
Weekly Residual (Model vs Ship observation)

40
420

30
(matm)

400 Winter Winter Winter

20
Ship Observations pCO
2

10

Model Bias ( m atm)

380

02

.9

.6
1

1
.2

.4

.6

.8

.0

.2

.4

.6

.1

.3

.5

.7

.9

.1

.3

.8
03

05
20

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

04

04

04

04

04

05

05

05
360

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
-10

Summer Summer
-20
340

-30

320
-40
320 340 360 380 400 420 Year

Model pCO2 (matm)

Slope Adj-r2 RMS • Model performs best in summer months

1.004±0.006 0.69 10.2 • Consistent bias in winter
 N. Normans Reef Prelim. Results
10
DHW (degree weeks)
8

4 • Early summer
2
– values similar to other
previous studies.
0
180
• Mid-summer
– DHW’s begin accumulating
160 – RCI values trend up
• Similar increases were
140
observed in Palau prior to
120 ’97-’98 bleaching event
(Kayanne,2005)
100
• Late summer
RCI (matm)

80 – SAMI-pCO2 fails
– DHW’s continue to climb
60
Bermuda – Coral bleaching evolves
40
Palau
throughout the Caribbean
20 Fanning Atoll

140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

Day of the year
 The Future of R.C.I.
• Improved Caribbean pCO2 Model (FY06)
– Air-sea exchange (QuickSCAT), Biological (Color)
• Additional Caribbean Sites (CREWS)(FY06)
pCO2(atm) Winds
• Hydrographic model
Atmosphere (FY07)
• Expansion to Non-Caribbean Sites (FY08) U  UM 
IN
IN K M  IN
– Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)
TC CO CO HCO 2
phyto Chl
–
Mixed Layer

2- -
South shore TA
of Oahu, HI 3 3

– Palau T rs  q

– Bermuda S
Depth of the Euphotic Zone ZE
Pexp.

ZM
Bottom Layer TC;TA;IN
-Joaquin A. Trinanes
Louanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)
 Applications and Stakeholders
• Coral Reef Management
– Long term monitoring of system level carbon budget
– Real time monitoring overall reef health
• Academic
– Hypothesis testing
– Global carbon budget (source/sink)
• Government
– Climate Observations and Services Program
– Global Carbon Cycle Program
– Coral Reef Conservation Program
 NOAA’s Strategic Plan
Significance:
• NOAA’s CRW and the newly formed Coral
Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing
System (CREIOS) are at the forefront of
truly integrated research observations,
spanning domestic and international
arenas.
• Development of an R.C.I. product can
serve the mission of CRW and can be used
by managers, academics and government
agencies to monitor environmental
stresses to coral reefs.
NOAA Cross-Cutting Priorities
• Integrated global environmental
observation and data management
• Sound, state-of-the art research
NOAA Mission Goals:
• Protect, restore and manage the use of
coastal and ocean resources through
ecosystem-based management.
• Understand climate variability and change
to enhance society’s ability to plan and
respond. Serve society’s needs for
weather and water information.
Matrix and Collaboration Opportunities
• NOAA/OAR/AOML
• National Center for Caribbean Coral
Reef Research (NCORE), RSMAS
• NGO’s (Conservation International)
• NOAA/OAR/PMEL
 Summary & Final Remarks
• In response to growing concerns over ‘ocean acidification’, NOAA CRW is
developing a Reef Calcification Index (RCI).
• The RCI can serve as a feasible and low cost monitoring tool and
compliment the suite of current NOAA CRW products.
• Sustained monitoring of the RCI at select reef communities should yield
insight into changes in reef community structure.
• Short term variability in the RCI may prove an important bioindicator of
acute coral stress (e.g. bleaching).
• Further improvements to the pCO2 model are actively being investigated
(air-sea exchange, biological activity)
• Expansion to other sites within the Caribbean could be achieved with little
additional cost.
• With refinement and additional in situ resources the RCI can be expanded
outside the Caribbean