Pictures source : Google

CAN EARTHQUAES BE PREDICTED? THE CHALLENGES IN

PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES AND THE SOLUTION
TO MINIMISE VICTIMS

ORIZA SATIVA
Student ID 2217450
sati0010@flinders.edu.au

IAP January-February 2019

PPT Theme Source : Trantition Office 2019
 Outline

 Background
 Purposes
 Discussion
 Conclusion

IAP – SEM 1 2019

 Background
Most Destructive Known Earthquakes on Record in the World
Date Location Deaths Magnitude Comments

May 31, 1970 Peru 66,000 7.9 $530,000,000

damage, great rock
slide, floods.

July 27, 1976 China, 255,000 7.5 Estimated death toll as high
Tangshan (official) as 655,000.

Sept 19, 1985 Mexico 9500 8.0 Estimated death toll as high
Michoacan (official) as 30,000

2001 Jan 26 India 20,023 7.7 166,836 injured,

600,000 homeless
.

2004 Dec 26 Sumatra 283,106 9.0 Deaths from earthquake

and tsunami
 Purposes
• Thesis Statement
It is argued that earthquake prediction challenges could
possibly be overcome or at least reduce that attempt to
limit the effects of an earthquake disaster

What are the challenges involved in earthquake predictions ?

The lack of The accuracy of the

The majority of
cohesiveness prediction :
predictions
between institutions  the location
non-seismological
 time
 magnitude

IAP – SEM 1 2019

 Discussion
1. The lack of cohesiveness between institutions
Earthquake Prediction Research Funding in
Japan for 2012
90 billion Yen

Universities & Private

Research Intitutes

Government

900 billion Uyeda (2013)

Yen

It should be the establishment of cooperation and

agreement between the institutions in the world
(World Wide earthquake prediction research institute)
 Discussion
2. The accuracy of the prediction : An earthquake
prediction must define 3 elements:
1) the date and time,
2) the location, ’SHORT-TERM PREDICTION’
3) the magnitude.
(Matsumura 2009, www.usgs.gov)

• The only well-known earthquake can be predicted is the

Haicheng Earthquake, China, a magnitude 7.5 (Mw) on 4
February 1975. The prediction was carried out in 1974
based on : animal behaviour
 Discussion
However,
CAN NOT BE REPEATED

The improvement for the earthquake

’LONG-TERM’ prediction method

• Building codes
• Regulation
• Emergency plans
• Education to the public
 Discussion
3. The majority of predictions non-seismological = rarely
supported by most of the projects
Non-seismological Seismological
GPS data, hydrological data such as level, Foreshock (small event before
temperature and chemistry under water, main earthquake), The Gap of
electromagnetic fluctuations in various seismic activity
frequencies, radon and other gas
emissions, and abnormal animal behaviour

Provide full support for research on non-seismological

earthquake precursors.

IAP – SEM 1 2019

 Conclusion
 There are many obstacles that make earthquakes cannot be
precisely predicted.
 All the difficulties can actually be minimized by :
1) Establishing cooperation and agreement between the institutions in
the world. This action would be able to reduce the challenges
posed by the disharmony between research organizations.
2) Short-term earthquake predictions that almost never succeed can
be transformed into long-term earthquake predictions.
3) To provide full support for research on non-seismological
earthquake precursors to achieve an earthquake prediction target
 These solutions could significantly reduce the negative impact of the
earthquake disaster in the future and save human lives.

IAP – SEM 1 2019

 References
• Geller, RJ 1997, ’Earthquake prediction : a critical review’, Geophysics Journal
International, pp.425-450

• Knopoff, L 1996, ’Earthquake prediction : the scientific challenge’, National Academy of

Sciences USA, vol. 93, pp.3719-3720

• Matsumura, S 2009, ’Trends and problems in earthquake prediction research’, Quarterly

Review Science and Technology Trends, no.31, pp. 65-84.

• Uyeda, S 2013, ’Earthquake prediction in Japan’, The Japan Academy, vol. 89, no. 9,
pp. 391-400.

• Uyeda, S 2015, ’Current affairs in earthquake prediction in Japan’, Journal of Asia Earth
Sciences, 7 July, pp. 431-434.

• Verma, M & Bansal, BK 2012, ’Earthquake precursory studies in India: scenario and
future perspectives’, Journal of Asia Earth Sciences, 30 April, pp. 1-8.

• https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes

IAP – SEM 1 2019

Any questions?

IAP – SEM 1 2019

India, Gujarat earthquake
Jan 26, 2001
Earthquakes and the San Andreas
Fault
 Background

• Why do the earthquake occur?

epicenter
focus
IAP – SEM 1 2019