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1
Outline
What Is Forecasting?
Forecasting Time Horizons
Forecasting Approaches
Overview of Qualitative Methods and Quantitative Methods
Time-Series Forecasting
Decomposition of a Time Series
Naive Approach
Time-Series Forecasting (cont.)
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing(with trend)
Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and
Correlation
Using Regression Analysis for Forecasting
Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines
Multiple-Regression Analysis
2
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to :
1. Understand the three time horizons and
which models apply for each use
2. Explain when to use each of the four
qualitative models
3. Apply the naive, moving average, and
exponential smoothing
4. Compute measures of forecast accuracy
3
Forecasting at Disney World
Revenues are derived from people
Forecast used to adjust opening times, rides,
shows, staffing levels, and guests admitted
Model includes gross domestic product, cross-
exchange rates, arrivals into the USA
Survey 1 million park guests, employees, and
travel professionals each year
Inputs are airline specials, Federal Reserve
policies, Wall Street trends, vacation/holiday
schedules for 3,000 school districts around the
world
4
Forecasting Time Horizons
Short-range forecast
Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months
Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce
levels, job assignments, production levels
Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
Sales and production planning, budgeting
Long-range forecast
3+ years
New product planning, facility location,
research and development
5
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
Used when situation is vague and little data exist
Involves intuition, experience
Quantitative Methods
Used when situation is ‘stable’ - historical data exist
Involves mathematical techniques
6
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
1. Jury of executive opinion
Pool opinions of high-level experts
2. Delphi method
3. Sales force composite
Aggregated estimates from salespersons
4. Consumer Market Survey
7
Delphi Method
Iterative group
Decision Makers
process, (Evaluate
continues until responses and
consensus is make decisions)
reached
Staff
3 types of (Administering
survey)
participants
Decision makers
Staff Respondents
(People who can
Respondents make valuable
judgments)
8
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
time-series
3. Exponential models
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression associative
model
9
Time Series Forecasting
10
Components of Demand
Trend
component
Demand for product or service
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
Random variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Time (years)
Figure 4.1
11
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next
period is the same as
demand in most recent period
e.g., If January sales were 68, then
February sales will be 68
Sometimes cost effective and
efficient
Can be good starting point
12
Moving Average Method
13
Moving Average Example
Actual 3-Month
Month Shed Sales Moving Average
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
14
Graph of Moving Average
Moving
30 –
Average
28 –
Forecast
26 – Actual
24 – Sales
Shed Sales
22 –
20 –
18 –
16 –
14 –
12 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
15
Weighted Moving Average
Used when some trend might be
present
Older data usually less important
Weights based on experience and
intuition
∑ (weight for period n)
Weighted x (demand in period n)
moving average = ∑ weights
16
Weights Applied Period
Weighted Moving Average
3 Last month
2 Two months ago
1 Three months ago
6 Sum of weights
17
Moving Average And
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted
30 – moving
average
25 –
Sales demand
20 – Actual
sales
15 –
Moving
10 – average
5 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 4.2
18
Exponential Smoothing
Form of weighted moving average
Weights decline exponentially
Most recent data weighted most
Requires smoothing constant ()
Ranges from 0 to 1
Less need for keeping past data
19
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast = Last period’s forecast
+ (Last period’s actual demand
– Last period’s forecast)
Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)
20
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
21
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
22
Exponential Smoothing
Example
Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs
Actual demand = 153
Smoothing constant = .20
23
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual = .5
200 – demand
Demand
175 –
= .1
150 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
24
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual = .5
200
Chose
– high values
demandof
Demand
25
Choosing
26
Common Measures of Error
• Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
σ |Actual−Forecast|
MAD=
n
27
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
28
Comparison of Forecast
Error
∑ |deviations|
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MADActual
= Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For 180
= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 = 82.45/8
175.5 = 10.31
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For 175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 = 98.62/8
175.02 = 12.33
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
29
Comparison of Forecast
Error2
∑ (forecast errors)
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MSE = Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage
n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For 180
= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 = 1,526.54/8
168 175.5 = 190.82
7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 For 175
= .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 = 1,561.91/8
205 175.02 = 195.24
29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
30
Comparison of Forecast
n Error
∑100|deviation |/actual i i
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MAPE = i=1
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with n for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
= .10 175
For 180 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 = 44.75/8
175.5 = 7.50
5.59% 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 =
For 175 .50 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 = 54.05/8
175.02 =29.98
6.76% 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
MSE 190.82 195.24
31
Comparison of Forecast
Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
MSE 190.82 195.24
MAPE 5.59% 6.76%
32
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment
When a trend is present, exponential
smoothing must be modified
Ft = (At - 1) + (1 - )(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
Step 1: Compute Ft
Step 2: Compute Tt
Step 3: Calculate the forecast FITt = Ft + Tt
Table 4.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
35
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 1: Forecast for Month 2
6 21
7 31 F2 = A1 + (1 - )(F1 + T1)
8 28 F2 = (.2)(12) + (1 - .2)(11 + 2)
9 36
10 = 2.4 + 10.4 = 12.8 units
Table 4.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
36
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 2: Trend for Month 2
6 21
7 31 T2 = b(F2 - F1) + (1 - b)T1
8 28 T2 = (.4)(12.8 - 11) + (1 - .4)(2)
9 36
10 = .72 + 1.2 = 1.92 units
Table 4.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
37
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 3: Calculate FIT for Month 2
6 21
7 31 FIT2 = F2 + T2
8 28 FIT2 = 12.8 + 1.92
9 36
10 = 14.72 units
Table 4.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
38
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Table 4.1
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
39
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
35 –
25 –
20 –
15 –
0 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 4.3
Time (month)
© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
40
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more
independent variables can be used to predict
the changes in the dependent variable
41
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on
predictor variables using the least squares
technique
y^ = a + bx
^
where y = computed value of the variable to
be predicted (dependent variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable though to
predict the value of the dependent
variable
42
Values of Dependent Variable Least Squares Method
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
(error) Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
44
Associative Forecasting
Example
y^ = 1.75 + .25x Sales = 1.75 + .25(payroll)
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
45
Correlation
How strong is the linear relationship
between the variables?
Coefficient of correlation r
measures degree of association
Values range from -1 to +1
Coefficient of Determination r2
the % change in y predicted by the change in x
Values range from 0 to 1
46
Correlation Coefficient
y y
x x
(a) Perfect positive (b) Positive correlation:
correlation: r = +1 0<r<1
y y
x x
(c) No correlation: (d) Perfect negative
r=0 correlation: r = -1
47
Multiple Regression
Analysis
If more than one independent variable is to be
used in the model, linear regression can be
extended to multiple regression to
accommodate several independent variables
y^ = a + b1x1 + b2x2 …
49
Forecasting in the Service
Sector
Presents unusual challenges
Special need for short term records
Needs differ greatly as function of
industry and product
Holidays and other calendar events
Unusual events
50
Fast Food Restaurant
Forecast
20% –
Percentage of sales
15% –
10% –
5% –
10% –
8% –
6% –
4% –
2% –
0% –
2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12
A.M. P.M.
Hour of day
Figure 4.12
52
In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 1:
Auto sales at Carmen’s Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-
week moving average.
Week Auto
Sales
1 8
2 10
3 9
4 11
5 10
6 13
7 -
53
In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 2:
Carmen’s decides to forecast auto sales by weighting the three
weeks as follows:
Weights Period
Applied
3 Last week
2 Two weeks ago
1 Three weeks ago
6 Total
54
In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 3:
A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with α=0.1 to forecast
demand. The forecast for the week of January 1 was 500 units
whereas the actual demand turned out to be 450 units. Calculate
the demand forecast for the week of January 8.
55
In-Class Problems from the
Lecture Guide Practice Problems
Problem 4:
Exponential smoothing is used to forecast automobile battery sales.
Two value of α are examined α = 0.8 and α=0.5. Evaluate the
accuracy of each smoothing constant. Which is preferable?
(Assume the forecast for January was 22 batteries.) Actual sales
are given below:
Month Actual Forecast
Battery
Sales
January 20 22
February 21
March 15
April 14
May 13
June 16
56