HDI-AN

OVERVIEW

Group Members
➤ Sidardth Singh
➤ Krishna Kangia
➤ Mohammad Ali Husain
 ZIMBABWE
➤ Zimbabwe is the 132nd largest export economy in the world and
the 95th most complex economy according to the Economic
Complexity Index (ECI). In 2015, Zimbabwe exported $1.93B and
imported $3.22B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $1.29B.
In 2015 the GDP of Zimbabwe was $22B and its GDP per capita
was $2.43k.
The top exports of Zimbabwe
➤ RawTobacco ($977M), Ferroalloys ($172M), Diamonds ($142M), Chromi
um Ore($122M) and Raw Sugar ($53.5M), using the 1992 revision of the
HS (Harmonized System) classification. Its top imports are Broadcasting
Equipment ($140M), Packaged Medicaments ($121M), Delivery
Trucks ($94.5M), Corn($74.8M) and Refined Petroleum ($74.4M).
 PNG
➤ Papua New Guinea is the 86th largest export economy in the world and
the 125th most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity
Index (ECI). In 2015, Papua New Guinea exported $8.9B and imported
$3.55B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $5.35B. In 2015 the GDP
of Papua New Guinea was $20.5B and its GDP per capita was $4.2k.
The top exports of Papua New Guinea
➤ Petroleum Gas($2.53B), Gold ($2.11B), Copper
Ore ($755M), Crude Petroleum ($633M) and Rough Wood ($558M),
using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System)
classification. Its top imports are Refined
Petroleum ($321M), Broadcasting Equipment ($128M), Delivery
Trucks ($102M), Excavation Machinery ($80.8M) and Crude
Petroleum($76.4M).
COLONIALISM
WE MUST FIND NEW LANDS FROM WHICH WE CAN EASILY OBTAIN
RAW MATERIALS AND AT THE SAME TIME EXPLOIT THE CHEAP
SLAVE LABOR THAT IS AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIVES OF THE
COLONIES. THE COLONIES WOULD ALSO PROVIDE A DUMPING
GROUND FOR THE SURPLUS GOODS PRODUCED IN OUR
British South Africa Company (BSAC, BSACO, or BSA Company), mercantile company based in London that
FACTORIES.
was incorporated in October 1889 under a royal charter at the instigation of Cecil Rhodes
- Unlike normal companies, the BSAC was permitted to establish political administration with a -paramilitary
CECIL RHODES
police force in areas where it might be granted rights by local rulers. It was also allowed to profit
commercially through its own operations or by renting out land, receiving royalties on the mining of
minerals, levying customs duties, and collecting other fees.
- In the 1880s the country became a British colony, called Southern Rhodesia, which lasted until 1965 when
the white minority declared independence from Britain
 ZIMBABWE-EDUCATION INDEX
➤
IMPROVED
The final stage of Zimbabwe's history before a British takeover was a state called Matabeleland. This state was created from the remains of the Rowzi
Kingdom.

➤ These people were from South Africa, belonging to an ethnic group called the Zulus. They were immigrants, fleeing the colonization of South Africa by the
Netherlands and Britain and turned to Zimbabwe for a new place to live.

➤ The Rudd Concession was the first stage of British involvement in Zimbabwe. Britain made this document such that large portions of Zimbabwe would be
taken away from Matabeleland for the British South Africa Company, disguised so that Matabeleland could gain weapons and supposed “wealth.”

➤ Matabele War - Soon after the British South Africa Company invaded Zimbabwe, Lobenbula decided to start a war and free Zimbabwe from British
rule. (Capital Destruction)

➤ After World War One, Zimbabwe underwent a name change, being granted the name "Southern Rhodesia" and being separated from Zambia

➤ The 20's and 30's passed, and in time various bills were passed allowing everyone, even blacks to vote if they had a salary over 150 pounds. South
Rhodesia's economy boomed, and finally World War Two came along.

➤ After World War Two's end, Southern Rhodesia decided to become involved in a war known as the Malayan Emergency, where Britain, South Rhodesia,
Malaysia, and Fiji fought against the communist party of Malaysia.

➤ Southern Rhodesia decided to amalgamate itself with Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland. At the time, all three countries had a British population of under
5%

➤ While not becoming completely independent, this new conglomeration effectively boosted African-Rhodesian and African-Nyasa human rights, assisted
by Andrew Cohen (the Undersecretary of African Affairs, he was Jewish and involved in the Holocaust which led him to be anti-racialist and anti-
discriminant.) The federation had a booming economy, eventually totaling 450 million pounds. The federation also built a hydro-electric dam, something
never seen before in Africa in Zambia.

➤ Anyways, Zimbabwe had a huge influx of all of these refugees making the Europeans in the country even more of a minority. And the leader of the
federation didn't like them. Many of the citizens of the entire federation criticized this leader, Roy Welensky, as an opponent of the state

➤ At last, in 1965, Zimbabwe declared independence from Britain, ending a long history of discrimination and racism in the country.
 ZIMBABWE TRADE WITH COLONIS
➤ The top export destinations of Zimbabwe are China($844M), South Africa ($189M), the United
Kingdom($101M), India ($71.2M) and Zambia ($70.6M). The top import origins are South
Africa ($2.01B), China ($442M), India ($149M), Zambia ($133M) and Hong Kong ($57.8M).
➤ Zimbabwe’s exports to the UK have increased by 276 percent to US$112 million in 2018 from
US$30 million in 2012. This was reported by ZimTrade, that also mentioned how Harare is now
working on strengthening bilateral and trade ties with London in preparation for Brexit.
➤ “Britain is working on leaving the European Union in the coming months and is now focused
on strengthening bilateral and trade ties,” according to ZimTrade, the national trade
development and promotion agency. “Zimbabwe has drafted a bilateral trade agreement in
preparation for Brexit to strengthen the already existing trade relationships.”
➤ Africa is an increasingly important continent to the UK’s prosperity and security interests. We
are expanding our footprint across the continent to respond to the demand we see for UK
goods and services as well as to deliver on the prime minister’s ambition for the UK to be the
largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022. We are seeing a significant uptick in interest in
Zimbabwe, including at the recent GTR Southern Africa Trade & Infrastructure Conference in
November
 PAPUA NEW GUINEA
➤ The first European attempt at colonization was made in 1793 by Lieut. John Hayes, a
British naval officer, near Manokwari, now in Papua province, Indonesia.
➤ It was the Dutch, however, who claimed the western half of the island as part of the Dutch
East Indies in 1828; their control remained nominal until 1898
➤ The eastern half of the island of New Guinea - second largest in the world - was divided
between Germany (north) and the UK (south) in 1885.
➤ The latter area was transferred to Australia in 1902, which occupied the northern portion
during World War I and continued to administer the combined areas until independence in
1975.
➤ During World War II the Japanese army invaded northern New Guinea in early 1942 and
took the territorial headquarters in Rabaul.
➤ Australian troops continued a costly war on Bougainville Island and the New Guinea
mainland until the Japanese surrender in August 1945.
➤ The Papua and New Guinea Act, passed in Australia in 1949, confirmed the
administrative union of New Guinea and Papua under the title of 'The Territory of Papua
and New Guinea’
 TRADE-RELATION WITH COLONISE
➤ (PNG)
Geographic proximity and historical links have given PNG a special
place in Australia's foreign relations and the bilateral relationship is
one of our most complex and wide-ranging.
➤ Two-way merchandise trade between Australia and PNG was worth
A$5.3 billion and total trade worth A$6.1 billion in 2016.
➤ Major Australian exports to PNG are crude petroleum, civil
engineering equipment and parts, meat and wheat. Major imports to
Australia from PNG are gold, crude petroleum, silver and platinum.
➤ Australian investment in PNG is worth A$18 billion. The resource
sector has traditionally been a focus of this investment, particularly
gold mining and oil and gas. Australian investment has also been
directed towards light manufacturing, infrastructure and service
delivery.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSISTION
FERTILITY RATES
➤ Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has generally been declining in Zimbabwe– an implied decline of about 1.8 births during the 30-year inter-census period of 1982-
2012. The decline was however halted in 2012 where TFR has slightly increased from 3.6 in 2002 to 3.8 in 2012

➤ The Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) have also been declining from 1992. However the 2002 ASFRs are lower than the 2012 rates, which is consistent with
a higher TFR in 2012 compared to 2002. Women in the age group 20-39 experienced higher ASFRs in 2012 than their counterparts during 2002.

Declining Fertility – Several socio economic reasons

➤ Unemployment and uncertainty cause

➤ Increase in accessibility of contraceptives and

➤ decrease in cultural dogma

➤ Better economic status of women – resulting in higher age for marriage and birth
MORTALITY RATES
➤ In Zimbabwe trends and levels of mortality have been influenced by the HIV and AIDS condition. The period 1992 to
2002, when the prevalence of HIV accelerated and when Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) was not widespread, mortality
increased among the population. For the intercensus period 2002 to 2015, after widespread adoption of ART,
mortality indicators improved significantly. Figures 9 below illustrate the development.

➤ The intercensus declining trend is also confirmed by Figure 11 below, which shows that at all ages below 74 years,
the ASDRs were lower in 2015 than in 2002.
MORTALITY RATES
➤ The 2012 Population census shows that from 1997 to 2008 childhood mortality increased albeit within a very narrow
range. This trend mimics that of the death rates in the general population as explained by the impact of HIV and
AIDS and the harsh economic conditions that prevailed during the latter half of the first decade of the millennium
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
➤ While life expectancy at birth was around 60 years during the first year of independence, it declined to 57 years in 1992 and 43 years in 2002. This trend is explained by
the HIV and AIDS trend. After 2002 life expectancy started to gradually increase reaching 60 years in 2015 (57 years for males and 64 years for females). The increase
in life expectancy can be attributed to better survival chances of HIV and AIDS victims because of the general availability of ART and the general improvement in the
availability of medicines after dollarisation in 2009. The intercensus period 2002 to 2015 saw life expectancy increasing by 16.5 years i.e. an improvement of 1.65 years
per year. We do not believe that this rate of life expectancy improvement is sustainable into the future, as it is attributed to medical intervention and not substantive
changes in the socio-economic conditions of the population.
POPULATION PYRAMID
POPULATION GROWTH RATE
Population Growth
The youthful age structure of Zimbabwe’s population presents a high potential for rapid population growth as well as high dependency burden. Zimbabwe’s population has
grown by 74% from 1982 to 2012, registering an average annual growth of 3.1%, 1.1% and 1.2% between 1982 and 1992, 1992 and 2002, and 2002 and 2012, respectively
(Zimstat, 2013). At the 2002-2012 annual growth rate of 1.2% the population of Zimbabwe is expected to double in 58 years.

During the first decade of independence the age group 65+ grew fastest. This reflects improvements in life expectancy during this period due to progress made in the health
delivery system. The age-pattern of growth for 1992-2002 is similar to that for the previous decade yet the growth rates are slower. During this period, HIV and AIDS-related
deaths had a huge impact on the population. Between 2002 and 2012, the pattern of growth is completely reversed. The age 0-14 grew fastest which could reflect the positive
impact on births of the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) of HIV programme during this period and the fall in HIV prevalence rates. Since the youngest age
group is growing fastest, the population of Zimbabwe may experience rapid growth in future due to population momentum
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
CRUDE DEATH RATE
DEMOGRAPHIC STAGE
➤ Zimbabwe is at stage 2 of the demographic transition because the CBR (34) is still very high. The
population of Zimbabwe was pushed into stage 2 because of the medical revolution. The medical
revolution eliminated several of the cause of death. The CDR (8.4) is slowly decreasing. Just because the
CDR is on the lower part of the scale, does not means that all death is no more. Especially in Zimbabwe,
there is still a lot of death. The infant mortality rate is at a 57 and life expectancy in total is at a 46. Most of
the causes of death aren't even caused by illnesses, they are caused by starvation. Families do not have
enough food to provide for their families.

➤ Most kids in Zimbabwe aren't able to have an education whilst growing up, because they have to work
and help there parents out with taking care of their younger brothers, without the help of these kids,
parents wouldn't be able to survive which would therefor lead to the death of the kids as well.
PROJECTIONS
➤ The development of the age-structure of the population is expected to be more bell-shaped than pyramidal as we go into the future.
This in in line with the assumption of declining fertility in the projections and improved longevity. As a result, the age composition of of
the population is expected to have significantly changed by 2032. The proportion of the young population is expected to decline in
2032 and that of the labour force is expected to rise.
PAPUA NEW GUINEA - AN AGEING
POPULATION
➤ How quickly is the population of Papua New Guinea ageing? The population of Papua New Guinea will increase by 48.5% over the
next two decades, reaching over 10 million by 2030. The proportion of the population aged 60 years and above is projected to exceed
that of the younger population aged 0–14 years in 2084 (see Figure 1). The proportion of persons aged 60 years and above will
increase from 4.6% of the population in 2015 to 7.0% in 2030. The population aged 0–14 years will constitute 32.1% of the total
population by 2030.

➤ How quickly is the population of Papua New Guinea ageing? The population of Papua New Guinea will increase by 48.5% over the
next two decades, reaching over 10 million by 2030. The proportion of the population aged 60 years and above is projected to exceed
that of the younger population aged 0–14 years in 2084 (see Figure 1). The proportion of persons aged 60 years and above will
increase from 4.6% of the population in 2010 to 7.0% in 2030. The population aged 0–14 years will constitute 32.1% of the total
population by 2030
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
POPULATION TRENDS
➤ Of the 7.6 million citizen population enumerated in PNG, 36% were below the age of 15 years and 62% were aged 15 to 64
years as shown in Table 1.4. The population distribution pattern according to the three broad age groups has been similar
except for the variations in the levels between the age groups. According to the 2011 census, the proportion for the younger
age group (less than 15 years) has decreased with a possible shift to the working age group (15-64 years). The proportion for
older persons (65 years and over) has remained consistent.

➤ In 2015, crude birth rate for Papua New Guinea was 27.93 births per thousand population. Crude birth rate of Papua New
Guinea fell gradually from 41.59 births per thousand population in 1966 to 27.93 births per thousand population in 2015.

➤ Papua New Guinea - Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people) in Papua New Guinea was reported at 7.112 in 2016, according to
the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources.
STAGE 4 - FALLING CBR AND CDR
➤ Mortality rates for both women and men have been dropping over the past 25 years, and as a result,
overall life expectancy since 1990 has increased by 5 years. In line with global trends, females have a
longer life expectancy than men, living on average 5 years more. Despite this progress, overall life
expectancy for Papua New Guineans is shorter than the majority of their Pacific neighbours (World
Health Organization, 2018a).

➤ Infant and under-5 mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990; however, estimates in 2011
indicated that the country made insufficient progress to meet its MDG 4 targets. The infant mortality rate
(IMR) in 2011 was 45 per 1000 (the 2015 target was 24 per 1000) and in 2014 under-5 mortality was
46.2 per 1000 (the 2015 target was 32 per 1000) (Hetzel et al., 2014).

➤ The prevalence of stunting is high, 48.2% in 2010, and is much higher in rural areas (50%) compared to
urban areas (35%). Improvement in health has not kept pace with the country’s economic growth over the
past 10 years
Stage 3 - Population growth rate has slowed down and the natural rate of increase has als
Increase in accessibility of contraceptives and
decrease in cultural dogma
 POLICIES TO CREATE A DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS AND REALISE THE DEMOGRAPHIC
DIVIDEND

Family planning programmes need to be scaled up in order to reduce the number of children per woman: The Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2010-11
shows that 13 percent of currently married women have an unmet need for family planning services. The same survey shows that as the number of children increases, up to 4,
contraceptive use also increases. This may indicate the demand for contraception to attain a desired family size. Women’s access to reproductive health should also be
improved because it is important for achieving desired family sizes.

There is need to put in place policies that delay the onset of childbearing among girls, as it has been shown that childbearing still occurs too soon in Zimbabwe and
PNG : This can be achieved through instituting laws against early marriage, as girls who marry early are more likely to have more children than their peers who stay in school
and marry later. Early marriage also reduces women’s economic contribution.

Zimbabwe should strive to have the majority of its population attain secondary education: Besides lowering fertility and mortality, higher levels of educational
attainment will justify large investments in universities in order to create the human capital necessary for an innovative and productive economy. Emphasis should also be
placed on vocational training because it introduces young people to the real working environment. This is important since the realisation of the demographic dividend requires
higher levels of productivity to create savings and wealth. Furthermore, education diminishes the economic value of children, as educated parents have more chances of
getting a job that provides security in old age. More educated parents have higher aspirations for their children, which increases investment in their health and education,
thereby reducing their numbers as a trade off with quality.

Effective medical care should be afforded infants to improve their survival chances and take away the need to have many children as an insurance against child deaths:
This is because where demographic transition has taken place, mortality decline preceded fertility decline. This also ensures that investment in education is concentrated in
fewer children, even though a huge investment in public health to combat communicable diseases may be required.

The countries should create jobs mainly in highly productive sectors with high demand for low skilled workers: However as the level of education increases jobs
would need to be created in knowledge intensive sectors that have greater added value. The job market needs to be liberalised and the private sector must also play a part in
labour training. There should also be equality of employment opportunity between men and women.

Zimbabwe and PNG should further strengthen its social security systems during the demographic transition phase: This is because the demographic bonus will not last
forever. As the large population cohorts that created the bonus age into retirement, the following generations are fewer in size, because of declining fertility, so the proportion
of the working age population declines whereas the share of the older, economically dependent people increases. Other policies, such as keeping the older generations longer
in the labour force, may be an option.