Step 4

Determine Enemy
Courses of Action

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 IPMB

Step 4 Step 1
Determine Define the
ANALYSE DESCRIBE
Enemy Battlespace
COA Environment

Step 3 Step 2
Evaluate the Describe the
DESCRIBE
Enemy ANALYSE
Battlespace
Effects

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 Step 4 – Key Outputs

- Identify likely - CoG construct (with

objectives & TCV)
endstates (tactical) - Event Overlay
- Identify the full range displaying NAI/TAI/DP
of enemy COA – Confirm ISR plan
- Evaluate and prioritise – Refine HVT Matrix
each enemy COA
- Produce the Situation
Overlay for each COA

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 4.1 - Identify Likely Objectives &
Endstates

• Immediate and
Subsequent
objectives
– (The likely mission)

• Likely Endstate

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 4.2 - Identify All Enemy COA
• Identify what Enemy could do.
– Conforming to your Step 3 analysis
– Brainstorm all possibilities.
• Identify what is possible and what isn’t
– Keep what is and develop further
• Doctrinal overlays (to scale – from Step 3)
fitted to the reality of the battlespace
(MCOO – from Step 2)

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4.2 Identify All Enemy COA

+ =
COA 3 COA 4 COA 5 COA 6

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MCOO

K
K
D
K
K

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Threat - Hostage Scenario

IED

IED
IED

IED Hostag
IED
e
Takers

IED
IED

IED

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COA

SPY
SPY

SPY

SPY
IED
IED

IED OBJ
FIRE
IED

SPY

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 COA

Snipers

FAI soldiers

Rockets Launcher

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 4.3 - Evaluate & Prioritise Each
COA
• Most Likely COA is that which most likely replicates
enemy preferred tactics and doctrine.
• It may include aspects relative to the most likely
approach direction to capture designated objectives
• Most Dangerous COA is that which stands to have the
greatest impact on friendly force mission failure.

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 Testing Enemy COA
• Why?
– This is a statement of the
• Feasible
COA rationale, or objective
• What?
• Acceptable
– This is the COA type of
operation (attack, defend,
• Suitable
reinforce or retrograde)
• When? • Distinguishable
– This is the earliest time
COA can begin.
• Where?
– Sectors, zones, axes.
• How?
– The method to be used.

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MLCOA SITEMP
Mission – Destroy enemy in
order to secure southern
flank
Purpose – Destroy enemy
Method – Single
envelopment
Endstate – Enemy 2nd Ech
Destroyed, Friendly OS
Forces ready for follow
up operation
BOS Concepts:
C2 – Comd travel 500m to rear of Catk force Mor Coy
1st Ech for C2
ISR – Prov adj for OS, indic of wdl
along Beechmont Rd axis
MAN – Assault groupings
OS – Suppress CT D in place
then switch to SCF to E/SE
to fix in loc
Comd’s
AD – loc with BHQ / Arty
Res
CSS – 100% resupply prior to
delib atk
IO – Use of TV/Radio propaganda
MS – Engr assets identify and
prep river crossing pts OBJ
Indicators:
C2
Resumption of enemy advance
after forward elements
destroyed

1st Ech
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MLCOA TIME EVENT CHART
Timings: (1st Ech)
H-30 to H-5 Artillery
(OS) conducts
Suppression
H-30 Coy Columns
H-15 Pl Columns
H-12 Combat line H-30

H-8 Dismount
H-5 OS switches to
SCF (successive H-15
concentration of H-12
Fire) to S and SE H-8
of posn

OBJ

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 Create COG Construct

“that characteristic,
capability or locality from which a
military force, nation or alliance
derives its freedom of action,
strength or will to fight at that level
of conflict”

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 THREAT COG CONSTRUCT

EN EMPLOYMENT OF ‘TECHNICAL’ VEHICLES

CC C3ISTAR / SITUATIONAL FIREPOWER CSS MOBILITY /

AWARENESS SURVIVABILTY

CR •OP LOCATIONS •DIRECT FIRE •AMMUNITION •CAMOUFLAGE

•ORDERS WEAPONS •WATER •CONCEALED FIRING
•COMMUNICATIONS (VHF •LOCAL PROTECTION •RATIONS POSITIONS
CB RADIO/IRIDIUM SAT) •SUPPORTING FIRES / •CONCEALED HIDES
OS •POL •SECURE WDL ROUTES
•CONTROL MEASURES •REHEARSED ABF LOCS •RPS •SUBSEQUENT POSNS
•TRIGGERS •DEVELOPED •TECH SUPPORT •COVERING FIRE TO
•REHEARSALS ENGAGEMENT AREAS •MEDICAL SUPPLIES/ SUPPORT CLEAN BREAK.
•OBSERVATION •OBSERVATION OF EVACUATION •GBAD MEASURES.
•NFE TARGETS
•COHESIVE CREWS •COHESIVE CREWS

CV •DISRUPTION OF OP •DISRUPTION OF •DISRUPTION OF •DETECTION OF

LOCATIONS TECHNICALS BY TECHNICALS BY TECHNICALS BY ISR
•OBSCURATION OS/DIRECT ATTACK OS/DIRECT ATTACK ASSETS (TI/NTM)
•DISRUPTION OF HQ •COMPROMISE OF ABF •DISRUPTION OF •DISLOCATION THROUGH
LOCS/ENGAGNEMENT CACHES/DUMPS IN HQ RAPID ADV BY ADF FE
•DISRUPTION OF COMMS AREAS DURING •FIXING BY DIRECT
LOCATION
•DECEPTION OF HQ REHEARSALS FIRE/OS
•EARLY ACTIVATION OF •DENIAL OF LOC TO
•OBSCURATION SOURCES OF LOGISTIC •TARGETING OF WDL
WDL TRIGGERS •DISRUPTION OF CREW ROUTES (CUTOFF)
SUPPORT
•COMPROMISE OF COHESION BY OS •DISRUPTION OF
POSITIONS/ROUTES TECHNICALS BY CAIRS
DURING REHEARSALS OR DIRECT ATTACK

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 THREAT COG CONSTRUCT

EN EMPLOYMENT OF ‘TECHNICAL’ VEHICLES

CC C3ISTAR / SITUATIONAL FIREPOWER CSS MOBILITY /

AWARENESS SURVIVABILTY

CR •OP LOCATIONS •DIRECT FIRE •AMMUNITION •CAMOUFLAGE

•ORDERS WEAPONS •WATER •CONCEALED FIRING
•COMMUNICATIONS (VHF •LOCAL PROTECTION •RATIONS POSITIONS
CB RADIO/IRIDIUM SAT) •SUPPORTING FIRES / •CONCEALED HIDES
OS •POL •SECURE WDL ROUTES
•CONTROL MEASURES •REHEARSED ABF LOCS •RPS •SUBSEQUENT POSNS
•TRIGGERS •DEVELOPED •TECH SUPPORT •COVERING FIRE TO
•REHEARSALS ENGAGEMENT AREAS •MEDICAL SUPPLIES/ SUPPORT CLEAN BREAK.
•OBSERVATION •OBSERVATION OF EVACUATION •GBAD MEASURES.
•NFE TARGETS
•COHESIVE CREWS •COHESIVE CREWS

CV •DISRUPTION OF OP •DISRUPTION OF •DISRUPTION OF •DETECTION OF

LOCATIONS TECHNICALS BY TECHNICALS BY TECHNICALS BY ISR
•OBSCURATION OS/DIRECT ATTACK OS/DIRECT ATTACK ASSETS (TI/NTM)
•DISRUPTION OF HQ •COMPROMISE OF ABF •DISRUPTION OF •DISLOCATION THROUGH
LOCS/ENGAGNEMENT CACHES/DUMPS IN HQ RAPID ADV BY ADF FE
•DISRUPTION OF COMMS AREAS DURING •FIXING BY DIRECT
LOCATION
•DECEPTION OF HQ REHEARSALS FIRE/OS
•EARLY ACTIVATION OF •DENIAL OF LOC TO
•OBSCURATION SOURCES OF LOGISTIC •TARGETING OF WDL
WDL TRIGGERS •DISRUPTION OF CREW ROUTES (CUTOFF)
SUPPORT
•COMPROMISE OF COHESION BY OS •DISRUPTION OF
POSITIONS/ROUTES TECHNICALS BY CAIRS
DURING REHEARSALS OR DIRECT ATTACK

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 HVT Matrix
Disrupt Delay Destroy
Target Relative Value

X X C2 (Local Leader)

X Intelligence (Early warning)

X X Fires (Mortar Tubes & RPG)

X Sympathizers

X X Sustainment (Logistic suppliers)

X Protection (IEDs)

X Communications

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 •KEY SYSTEMS BY WFF
CC CR CV

Modified vehicles Less armour

Movement and
Maneuver
motorcycle Riders vulnerable to fire

AK-47 Less in Accuracy

Fires RPD Limit in Range

RPG-7V Single load

Sources vulnerable to
COG? Intelligence Humint misinformation

Supply Routes
Sustainment Local people vulnerable to disruption

Cell-phone Depend on provider

C2 Radio Radios vulnerable to

intercept
Leadership Human being

Local people limited in fire protection

Protection
IED manual
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 Event Overlays/Templates

• Merges all situation overlays to produce a single

overlay

• Assists staff identify COA indicators

– Astute usage of indicators assists analysis of which
COA is more likely to be developing

One of THE critical planning tools from IPMB

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 NAI / TAI / DP
• Named Area of Interest (NAI): Where to detect
– Specific areas where critical events are expected to occur
– Confirm or deny enemy COAs
– Indicate where specific enemy force elements may be
located.
• Targetable Area of Interest (TAI): Where to effect
– Enemy vulnerable
• A choke point
• An obstacle, such as a river, that requires preparation to
cross
• A dismount location
• Any other area that we could target for an effect
– Must have assets to target enemy.
• Decision Point (DP): An area where a tactical decision is required.

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 How to create an Event Overlay
• Place all COA arrows on a
slide NAI 4

• Compare similarities and OS

differences
– Areas where COA diverge are
decision points
– Areas either side of this
become NAI
– Identify other significant asset
locs
– Identify other locs of
significance for each COA
(likely dismount areas, FO OBJ
OPs etc) NAI 5

• Remove arrows
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Event Overlay
NAI 1 – Identify which axis comd will
use
NAI 2 – Confirmation of MLCOA (+ve or
–ve) NAI 4

NAI 3 – Identify prepared crossing pts

NAI 4 – Poss loc of OS assets
NAI 5 – Poss HLZ (MDCOA)

TAI 1 – Likely dismount loc for

1
assaulting forces (ML/MDCOA)

DPT1 – Selection of Axis for Assault 2

forces
3

TAI 1
Note: Each NAI/TAI must be related to a
COA indicator which will confirm or OBJ
deny a COA
5

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Event Overlay

SPY
SPY

NAI 2

SPY

IED
TAI 1 SPY
IED

IED NAI 1
OBJ
FIRE
IED TAI 1

SPY

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 Collection Planning

• Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs) are

developed to confirm or deny a threat COA
• Assets are tasked to conduct ISR activities of
NAI (based on step 4)

S2 manages the plan, de-conflicts collectors, briefs & staffs

requests & orders to S3
• S3 will task the asset to conduct ISR activities.

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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 Step 4 – Key Outputs

- Develop a MLCOA Situation Overlay

- Develop MDCOA Situation Overlay
- CoG construct (with TCV)
- Event Overlay displaying NAI/TAI/DP
- Information Requirements / Confirm ISR
plan
– Refine HVT Matrix

1. Battlespace Environment 2. Battlespace Effects 3. Enemy Evaluation 4. Enemy COAs

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QUESTIONS?

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