INDONESIA FINALLY SEES END IN

SIGHT OF THE TRIPLE DISASTER

THAT
STRUCK ON OCTOBER 25, 2010
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of North
Carolina, USA

October 25-27 – November 24,

2010
A M7.7 EARTHQUAKE, A 3 M-TSUNAMI-
WAVE RUN UP, AND A LONG
ERUPTION OF MOUNT MERAPI
CAUSED LOSSES IN THE TENS OF
MILLIONS, DISPLACED OVER 340,000,
KILLING NEARLY 1,000 , AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
HEALTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE FOR
THOUSANDS,
INDONESIA HAS MORE THAN
17,000 ISLANDS
Sandwiched between two active
earthquake belts, the Pacific
“Ring of fire,” and the Alpide
Belt, Indonesia experiences
some of the most powerful
earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions on Earth.
 Indonesia is home to 129 active
volcanoes, with the two most active
ones — Mount Kelut and Mount
Merapi — located on the island of
Java, which also contains the
Indonesian capital of Jakarta,
roughly 500 km (300 mi) northwest
of them.
 INDONESIA’S 129 ACTVE VOLCANOES
(MOUNT MERAPI IS BOTTOM LEFT CENTER)
Monday and Tuesday: Oct 25-26

Indonesia endured two days of

environmental extremes after a
powerful earthquake, a tsunami,
and a volcanic eruption struck the
Java region of the Indonesian
archipelago.
CASUALTIES: 538 ON OCT 26, BUT
TOLL LIKELY TO RISE IN THE
FUTURE

The earthquake and tsunami run up

left at least 500 dead, and the initial
volcanic eruption left 38 dead, BUT,
health impacts associated with
Mount Merapi’s continuing eruption
may have long-term impacts.
 THE RESPONSE TO A
HUGE HUMANITARIAN
NEED BEGINS
The Indonesian government started by
constructing 4000 shelter homes, while
Aid workers were scrambling to provide
tents, food, clothing, and medicine to
evacuees while awaiting international
assistance.
 THE M7.7 EARTHQUAKE

Early response was hindered

by twenty-two aftershocks
ranging from M5- 6.2
 TECTONICS OF THE REGION

• The Australian and Eurasian

plates meet in Indonesia,
creating a tectonic setting
favorable for generating
earthquakes, tsunamis, and
volcanic eruptions.
 TECTONICS OF THE REGION
(Continued)
• The Australian plate is moving
northward and being subducted
under the Eurasian plate in a
zone marked by a submarine
trench that can be traced from
the northern tip of Sumatra to
the Lesser Islands.
SUBDUCTION ZONE
SEISMICITY MARKS THE PLATE
BOUNDARIES
 THE TSUNAMI

RESPONSE WAS EXACERBATED

BY REMOTENESS OF THE
ISLANDS
INDONESIA: LOCATION OF
HISTORICAL TSUNAMIS
 The M7.7 earthquake generated a
near-source tsunami with 3 m (10 ft)
waves that struck within 5 minutes
after the quake---so quickly that the
regional tsunami warning system
that was improved after the
December 26, 2004 tsunami
disaster, was ineffective..
 The tsunami, triggered by the
7.7-magnitude undersea quake, hit
the Mentawai Islands late Monday,
leaving thousands homeless,
killing at least 500 people, and
sweeping hundreds out to sea.
TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP IN
MENTAWAI ISLAND
MENTAWAI ISLAND: MANY
SWEPT OUT TO SEA
SEARCH AND RESCUE HINDERED
BY POOR COMMUNICATIONS
KNOWING WHERE, WHEN, AND
WHY A TSUNAMI OCCURS IS
A VITAL PART OF THE ART
AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT
RISK REDUCTION.
Tsunamis Are Associated with
Subduction Zone Earthquakes
• M7 or larger
earthquakes
that occur in
oceanic
subduction
zones can
cause:
Tsunamis
A TSUNAMI WAVE CAN REACH
10 M OR MORE IN HEIGHT
 TSUNAMI HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD
WATER WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP
• FLOODING
• WAVE RETREAT
• SHORELINE EROSION
 CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE

RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE

RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
TSUNAMIS BUILDINGS

“DISASTER FLOODING
LABORATORIES”

INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL
AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
 THE ART AND SCIENCE OF
KNOWING WHEN TO EVACUATE
BEFORE A TSUNAMI WAVE
ARRIVES AND WHERE TO GO
CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.
INTELLIGENT EVACUATION:LEAVE THE
AREA OR EVACUATE VERTICALLY

• LEAVE, IF ENOUGH
ADVANCE WARNING
• EVACUATE TO A
TALL BUILDING OR
A HIGHER
ELEVATION TO GET
BEYOND REACH OF
THE TSUNAMI’S
WAVE RUNUP.
YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT
10-M-HIGH, DEBRIS-LADEN,
OCEAN WAVES THAT ARRIVE
WITH A HIGH VELOCITY (E.G.,
30 TO 300 KM/HR) AND MOVE
INLAND
FOR 2-3 KM, OR MORE
EXAMPLE 1: GREAT SUMATRA
EARTHQUAKE-INDIAN OCEAN
TSUNAMI DISASTER

DECEMBER 26, 2004

(A Sunday morning)
 ABOUT ½ HOUR FOR TSUNAMI WAVES TO
REACH BANDA ACHE; LONGER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS
 THE FACTS

• THE TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY

A SHALLOW, M 9.3 EARTHQUAKE
LOCATED 260 KM (155 MI) FROM
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA
 THE FACTS

• THE TSUNAMI WAVES HAD

HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 10 M AND
RUNUP OF 3.3 KM OR MORE ON
THE COAST LINES OF 12 NATIONS
 THE FACTS

• THE EXISTING TSUNAMI WARNING

SYSTEM WAS INEFFECTIVE.
• LITTLE OR NO EVACUATION.
 THE FACTS (Continued)

• AN ESTIMATED 220,000
PEOPLE WERE KILLED
(120,000 IN INDONESIA) AND
500,000 INJURED IN 12
COUNTRIES BORDERING THE
INDIAN OCEAN
 KNOWING THE ERUPTION
HISTORY OF A VOLCANO IS
A VITAL PART OF THE ART
AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT
EVACUATION.
THE CURRENT VOLCANIC
ERUPTION

--- BUT, MOUNT MERAPI

MAY NOT BE FINISHED
YET!
 VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS,
BURSTS, AND FLOWS
 VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE • TECHNIQUE
• LAND-USE • MAPS: LAVA
CONTROL AND/OR LAHAR
FLOW PATHS
• EVACUATION • COMMUNITY
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE PLAN
YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR DIVERT
A PYROCLASTIC FLOW OF HOT
ASH AND ROCK FRAGMENTS
THAT TYPICALLY FLOW DOWN
A VOLCANO’S SLOPES AT
SPEEDS UP TO 60 MI/HR.
MOUNT MERAPI, INDONESIA

• Mount Merapi
has a history
of starting full
scale erupt-
ions with a
pyroclastic
cloud and flow.
 MOUNT MERAPI ERUPTED
THREE TIMES: OCT 26, 2010
 SEARCH AND RESCUE
AFTER MERAPI’S ERUPTION
MERAPI’S ERUPTION
CONTINUES: NOV 1
 70,000 EVACUATED AS
ERUPTION CONTINUES: NOV 2
A LARGE ERUPTION: NOV 3
 FLAWS IN EVACUATION FACILITIES
EXPOSED : NOV 2

• Tens of thousands of evacuees, who

were anxious to go home to check on
livestock and homes, found the camps
cramped and unsanitary, but they were
unable to go because there was no lull
or clear end in Merapi’s eruption cycle.
In consideration of the violence
of the eruption on November 3rd,
the government widened the
radius of the evacuation zone
around Merapi from 5 to 10 km,
and eventually to 12 km.
Aid workers say the conditions
in the evacuee camps are very
poor, with some shelters having
as few as five lavatories for
every thousand residents.
 MERAPI’S ERUPTION ON NOV 5 WAS
VERY VIOLENTT

• Just before midnight, Merapi erupted

with a 10 km ash plume that affected
locations 250 km away and a
pyroclastic cloud of ash and rock
fragments that raced down the slopes
at speeds of up to 100 km per hour.

•
ERUPTIONS CONTINUES : NOV 6
 FLIGHTS TO JAKARTA
CANCELED BECAUSE OF THE
ASH CLOUDS.
Deaths continued to climb daily
from the continuing eruption of
Mount Merapi:
38 (Oct 26) to 56 to 118 to 138
to 156 (Nov 8) to 191(Nov 10).
NOV. 6TH : A massive aid
operation is underway to provide
humanitarian assistance to some
200,000 people who fled the most
violent eruptions in 100 years,
especially on Thursday night
(Nov 4th), which killed over 70
people.
 Local government, the security
forces, the Indonesian Red
Cross, NGOs and hundreds of
volunteers are distributing food,
water and organizing basic
medical care.
 The European Commission
decided to provide Euro 1.5
million (US$ 2.1 million) through
its Humanitarian Aid department
(ECHO) for assistance to the
survivors of the tsunami in
western Sumatra and to those
displaced by the volcano.
MERAPI’S ERUPTIONS CONTINUE
: NOV 10
 USA SENDS THREE VOLCANO
EXPERTS WITH EXPERIENCE IN
THE MAY 1980 ERUPTION OF
MOUNT ST HELENS TO ASSIST
INDONESIAN EXPERTS IN THEIR
ASSESSMENTS OF MERAPI.
Merapi’s eruptions, which began
on Oct. 26, passed the 120-hour
mark on Nov. 11, eclipsing its
old record set in 1872.
NEW HEALTH CARE PROBLEMS:
HIGH SULFUR DIOXIDE : NOV 11
 NOV 11: According to the
National Disaster Management
Agency, 194 deaths, 598 people
are hospitalized, and 343,909
people have been evacuated to
the safety zone, 12.4 miles (20
km) away from Merapi.
 NEW THREAT-FLASH FLOODS:
Volcanic debris has clogged
many of the rivers (e.g., Code
River) that begin on Merapi's
slopes, and officials are now
worried that cold lava could
overwhelm these rivers and
create conditions for flash floods.
ASH-COVERED SCHOOL: NOV 14
 NOV 15th
Evacuees begin returning home
to take care of livestock and to
assess vitality of resuming their
former livelihoods
 AS OF NOV 16th
Merapi had emitted more than
140 million cubic meters of
materials, higher than the 100
million cubic meters emitted in
1872 and the 14 million cubic
meters emitted in 2006.
ASH-COVERED TERRAIN: NOV 18
 The month-long eruptions of
Mount Merapi also damaged
867 hectares of forested land
on the volcano`s slopes in
Sleman District, Yogyakarta,
with material losses estimated
at Rp33 billion.
 Deaths from the ongoing
eruption of Mount Merapi
continued to climb daily, going
from:
38 (Oct 26) to 56 to 118 to 138
to 156 (Nov 8) to 190 (Nov 10) to
250 (Nov 14) to 275 (Nov 18).
IMPATIENT EVACUEES BEGIN
RETURNING HOME: NOV 18
 NOV 18th
The Government spent an
estimated $10 million to buy
cattle as a means of keeping
the farmers from returning
home too soon to face almost
certain health-care problems
and death.
 NOV 19th
The Government declared that it
will end the emergency
response period for the Mount
Merapi volcanic eruption
disaster on November 24th
 After the end of the emergency
response period, the National
Disaster Management Agency
(BNPB) will begin implementing
the reconstruction and
rehabilitation programs for Mt
Merapi victims
 The BNPB has at its disposal
Rp397 billion to help disaster
victims, with 80 percent allocated
to meet the victims` physical
needs and 20 percent allocated
for operational expenses..
 "Houses that have been
damaged or destroyed will be
rebuilt; people who have lost
cattle will be financially
compensated, and food will be
provided for those who lost
crops.
 But there also was more than
Rp3 trillion in stand-by funds to
respond to the needs of
reconstruction and rehabilitation